Live MLB Betting Strategy — Step-by-Step Guide & Transcript

[00:02] want to attack when it comes to live betting. An over 3% edge in a stoppage where we can lock in this value over at DraftKings. In just 2 weeks of live betting Major League Baseball in the month of May, I've made over $600

[00:15] with just an average wager size of 40 bucks. So, in this video I'm going to process. So, within the next few minutes you can copy and paste this for yourself and start crushing the books with this setup. So, first we're over here on the

[00:29] top center, we're going to come over to the filters. Now, the four sports books that I love to focus on, DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics, Desert Diamond. Desert Diamond's my can't-be sports book out here in Arizona, which is the same

[00:43] exact odds provider as BetRivers or Bally Bet or BetParks. So, either one of these three options is going to be fine for you to use. Now, another great option is BetMGM. The only issue with BetMGM is their timer. When you go to

[00:57] submit your bet on BetMGM, you'll see a spinning wheel, especially if you're a sharp sports better. This spinning wheel can sometimes take 30 to 60 seconds before you lock in a bet. So, while BetMGM can be very profitable for live

[01:10] betting, because of the timer I normally leave this off my board. We're sticking to an odds range that is slightly better or worse than a flip of a coin, minus 150 to plus 125 odds. Looking for plays that have at least a 3% EV edge or

[01:24] higher. Again, if you are on a day in baseball where it's a very busy slate, like on a Saturday or a Sunday, you can move this number up to 4% or 5%. Next, we're just going to be focused on main line markets, particularly money line,

[01:38] spreads, totals. Next, we're going to be de-vigging to Pinnacle and I like to use either the power default method or worst case. Either of these two de-vig methods is perfect for live betting, but we're leaning on Pinnacle as our sharp. So,

[01:52] couple different options betting the under on the A's and the Cardinals. When it comes to this play, guys, as you can see, the EV edge is pretty similar. I would rather have the under eight than under seven. That extra run is a really

[02:05] big deal. Also, when looking at this under seven and under eight, something that you want to pay attention to, it's a flat number. So, in the off chance a flat number. So, in the off chance that this game ends 5-2 or 5-3,

[02:19] we're going to receive our money back as a push. Remember, there's no .5 or hook attached to the end of this line. So, betting plays on the totals where it's a flat number or on the run line where it's a minus two or a plus three. These

[02:34] flat numbers also provide you another level of insurance. Now, if you're brand new to live betting, I would highly recommend that you click off this live button right here and only focus when the game's in a stoppage. This is going

[02:46] to allow you extra time to lock in some plays, but my process is very simple in terms of sports books. If you start to select more than four sports books, what of plays are going to be popping up on the screen and it's going to be very

[02:59] difficult for you to be logged into all of these books at the exact same time to grab this value. So, the less books that you have selected makes it a lot easier Major League Baseball in the main line markets, the main line markets are all

[03:13] going to be right in front of you on the screen. If you want to try Odds Jam one week for free and then save 35% off your first month after the one week trial ends, use code Billy 35. It'll be linked in the description below. So, here we

[03:25] go, the under seven at minus 135. This is currently in a stoppage. This play has an over 3% edge and I'm locking it in right now on DraftKings. And within a matter of seconds, we find incredible value on this under between the A's and

[03:39] the Cardinals. And because this play was in a stoppage, this afforded me those extra couple valuable seconds that I needed to lock in the value. Why does this play have such an incredible value? Well, a sharp sports book like Pinnacle

[03:51] over $21,000 on this under thinks this should be priced at minus 166. So, Pinnacle thinks on this $50 wager that I just placed over at DraftKings, we should be getting

[04:03] paid out a grand total of $80 when this under cashes, or $30 in profit. But, I'm getting paid out at $87 in profit. Literally, an extra $7 is going into my

[04:15] sports book and we found incredible value. Within less than 3 minutes of securing the value on this bet, you could see the under seven is right now at minus 154 on DraftKings when we just got it at minus 135. The price moved

[04:30] from a favorite to a heavier favorite, which signals to us that we received value on this play. Something else that you're going to notice with live betting, I like to bet a flat wager size and I like to use a tiered system. So,

[04:43] anything that is 6% EV edge or higher, 7, 8, 9%, I'll bet X amount of dollars, the same dollar amount. Anything that's between 3 to 6%, I'll bet X amount of

[04:55] dollars. So, this makes it very easy for me because speed is necessary when it comes to live betting and I'm not always going to pay attention to how much I should wager. Once I lock in what the EV edge is for this specific play, I have

[05:09] two tiers. I either bet this amount or I bet this amount. So, it's a very simple, easy range. With live betting, we want volume, accumulating as many plays with an edge as we can. So, if your bankroll is a thousand dollars, then you want to

[05:22] stay somewhere between a 1 to 3% range per bet. Figure out what 1 to 3% for a wager is for you based off your bankroll, and then figure out the number that works best for you. Somewhere between 10 to $30 should be your wager

[05:38] aggressive, bet $25. If you want to keep it conservative, bet $10. But, that's your first tier for that 3 to 6% EV range. So, if your bankroll is $1,000 and you find an EV edge that's 6% or higher, bet 25 or $30. If you find a

[05:54] play that lives between a 3 to 6% edge, then bet below $25 per play, somewhere between 10 to $15. The swings in live betting can change every few minutes. So, this is going to allow you to not be overexposed with each individual wager

[06:10] thing that you want to focus on is the sportsbooks that you're going to live bet with. You need to understand how to navigate these books. While the one-click bet feature is awesome on OddsJam, I prefer, before I even hit the

[06:23] play button here when it comes to live, I'm already figuring out what books I'm going to use and then I go and log into those books. And if I'm betting baseball, I'm going over to the Major League Baseball section, so I'm ready to

[06:35] sportsbooks, you're just going to click ready to attack. Now, when it comes to your setup, should you use your cell phone, should you use your laptop, iPad, whatever makes you the fastest. There

[06:48] isn't a right or wrong way. Whatever you're most comfortable with that allows you to capture these plays with an edge, that's what you should aim for. If you make sure to smash that subscribe button, click that thumbs up button, and

[07:00] tap that bell notification so you don't miss the next video that we release. The to pregame betting is you can simply just lock it in when the games are going that day, see what games are going on at what times, and then lock it in. Now,

[07:14] for myself personally, I don't bet the first inning. So, once first pitch and then once we get to the second inning, that's when I jump in. If you want to take this a step further, you could skip the first six innings and

[07:27] just live bet the seventh, eighth, and ninth inning. This is when the bullpens come into play and true madness happens when it comes to live betting baseball. place with money lines, spreads, and totals, and so this just allows you to

[07:41] capture the final three innings of a game, which then even shortens your time time in front of the screen. You can just focus on once games get to the seventh inning, it's time to lock it in. If you're having trouble balancing

[07:54] to check this video that's coming on the screen right here. This is my 20-minute daily betting strategy. 20 minutes, I log on, grab value, and then I move on with my day. This keeps a very healthy balance between sports betting and my

[08:08] balance between sports betting and my life.