Crypto Bill on the Brink: Odds Plummet
42sThe dramatic drop in odds for the landmark crypto bill creates urgency and captures the attention of crypto holders.
▶ Play Clip"Title is slightly sensational but accurately reflects the odds drop and political struggle; delivers on the core claim."
The video discusses the Clarity Act, a major US crypto regulation bill, and its dwindling chances of passing before the end of the year. It highlights the drop in passage odds, the political impasse over ethics provisions, and the urgent call for community action to support the bill.
Galaxy Research drops passage odds from 50% to 30%, and prediction markets show 37% chance. The bill needs 60 votes; 51 Republicans support, but only 2 Democrats (Gallego and Alsobrooks) were conditional yeses and have since said no.
Senator Ruben Gallego calls the current draft 'a piece of... not a serious effort,' and Senator Angela Alsobrooks calls it an 'unserious offer.' Both were previously conditional yeses but now count as noes.
The Clarity Act faces an ethics fight (Democrats want different language, including state AG enforcement) and a shrinking calendar (only 14 days left).
Senator Cynthia Lummis explains that Democrats want state attorneys general to sue elected officials for ethics violations, which would apply to all members of Congress and federal judges, not just the president. Senators reject this idea.
The Blockchain Association launched clarityforamerica.com to let people send letters to senators urging them to bring the Clarity Act to the floor. Users can customize tone and send via email.
The world's largest law enforcement officers' organization, Fidelity ($7 trillion asset manager), and the National Black Church Initiative (27.7 million members) have all endorsed the Clarity Act.
Patrick McHenry, White House Executive Director on crypto, says waiting for a grand bargain with 10 Democrats is unrealistic; they've already addressed every issue raised, including ethics.
The Clarity Act's passage is uncertain, but the crypto community can still influence the outcome by contacting senators. The video urges immediate action to support the bill.
What are the current odds of the Clarity Act passing before the end of the year?
Galaxy Research dropped odds to 30%, prediction markets show 37%.
00:03
How many votes are needed to pass the Clarity Act in the Senate?
60 votes.
00:30
Which two Democrats were conditional yeses but now say no?
Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks.
00:55
What is the main ethical dispute between Democrats and Republicans?
Democrats want state attorneys general to be able to sue elected officials for ethics violations, which Republicans reject.
03:13
What website was launched to help people contact senators about the Clarity Act?
clarityforamerica.com
04:55
Which major organizations have endorsed the Clarity Act?
The world's largest law enforcement officers' organization, Fidelity, and the National Black Church Initiative.
06:06
Odds plummet to 30%
Shows the bill's passage is now unlikely, a key fact for crypto holders.
00:03Ethics fight and shrinking calendar
Identifies the two main obstacles to the bill's passage.
02:16Community call to action
Provides a concrete way for viewers to influence the outcome.
04:41Broad support from major groups
Shows the bill has significant backing beyond crypto circles.
06:06[00:03] Just in, Clarity Act now in Hail Mary territory as odds drop to now 30%. >> Because it seems like you're going to have to even make more concessions on have to even make more concessions on the language around ethics to secure the
[00:16] >> This is from Galaxy Research who have dropped their odds. It was 50, now it's 30, of passage before the end of the year, as well as odds plummet on leading year, as well as odds plummet on leading prediction markets to now just 37%. This
[00:30] is for the big crypto bill going through Congress. This will regulate crypto in America for the first time ever, and with 60 votes required to turn this bill into law with 51 Republicans currently saying
[00:42] yes, meaning we need nine nine other people and only two Democrats may be saying yes, although they have since come out and said no to this current draft. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego
[00:55] calls the current draft a piece of Specifically, he said, "Whatever piece of they sent us, that was not a serious effort." Him, of course, referring to the new draft of the Clarity Act, which has already been approved by the Trump
[01:08] White House. Check out our coverage from the last two days to understand how this affects you as a crypto holder. And then, of course, we also have Senator Angela Alsobrooks, who calls the latest draft an un serious offer. And of
[01:21] course, those were the two Democrats, Gallego and Alsobrooks, who were the conditional yeses. Yet right now, I think we have to count them as noes, meaning where do we get the nine other votes for the 60 vote threshold to pass
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[02:16] due to two main reasons. The ethics fight, the Democrats want different language in the ethics part of the bill, as well as a shrinking calendar threatens the passage. I love this explanation from Anthony Scaramucci.
[02:29] >> The Democrats said to the White House, we need an ethic ethics provision that has teeth in it. And so they said, "What do you want?" And they said what they them. And now the Democrats are saying, "Well, that's not enough. We want state
[02:42] "Well, that's not enough. We want state AGs to be able to enforce these federal So, that's a real problem because then you have to redo all of the ethics codes in the federal government because you can't have the state just prosecuting
[02:56] potential violations in the federal code. So, they've got to get around that But then the biggest problem is the procedural one. You only have 14 days >> Senator Cynthia Lummis also passionately explains on Fox Business today the
[03:13] dilemma the crypto community seems to be in as Democrats want state attorney generals to be able to sue elected officials so state regulate or enforce
[03:26] the federal level. Watch, then I'll react. >> You know, we had worked until there was an impasse with Democrats earlier this month because they want state attorneys general to be able to sue elected
[03:42] officials that are subject to this ethics law. And so that would allow, for example, uh an an attorney general from another state to sue me if they thought I violated the ethics law. So, when I ran
[03:57] that by senators, they said, "We don't want that." And so, they said, "We don't want that." And so, this this ethics provision is not just applicable to the president and the vice president. It's applicable to every
[04:10] house member, every senator, and every federal judge. So, we're trying to not plan legislation around one person who holds one office for the next 2 years,
[04:24] but rather over time that will serve the House, the Senate, the judiciary, and the executive branch in a fair way. The struggle is, of course, a lot of Democrats are absolutely focused on one person, and that's President Trump.
[04:41] >> And this is where the Hail Mary comes in. I need your help. Crypto needs your help. If you live in America, or hey, even if you don't, tell your senator. Bring the Clarity Act to the floor. This is a new website from
[04:55] the Blockchain Association called clarityforamerica.com. I have no association. I just saw that they posted it on X. And whether you're writing on behalf of an organization, or writing as an individual, you just put
[05:07] your name, they draft the text, you check some boxes to indicate what matters to you, and you can even select your tone. How do I want this email to sound? Urgent but professional, or passionate and heartfelt?
[05:20] You generate the letter, and then they draft it for you for you to approve, and they send it to every single senator that matters. Click I've read the letter in full, open in the email app, or just copy and paste and send this directly
[05:35] through Gmail. Stop whatever you're doing. I don't care that it's a Friday in the middle of summer. If you're working crypto, take 2 minutes to submit a letter urging the Senate to bring the Clarity Act to the floor for a vote.
[05:51] This is one of the easiest ways to make your voice heard. I'm doing it. It's want. I'm doing it though. This is our Hail Mary because this fight isn't over. In fact, today the world's largest organization of sworn law enforcement
[06:06] officers now officially endorse the passage of the Clarity Act. They have sent an open letter to Elizabeth Warren as well as other members, decision as well as other members, decision makers of Congress. And also Fidelity,
[06:20] makers of Congress. And also Fidelity, $7 trillion asset manager Fidelity, has publicly signaled their support for the passage of the Clarity Act as well as the National Black Church Initiative. This one's a big one. The National Black
[06:35] Church Initiative, representing 27.7 million members, is urging the Senate to pass the Clarity Act citing economic opportunity for black Americans. This is
[06:47] bigger. The people's voices are getting bigger. And this is our moment. This is the Altcoin Daily Army moment. We are a community of millions of subscribers. We're the largest, one of the largest crypto communities on the interwebs. And
[07:02] this is our shot to actually make a difference because as White House Executive Director on crypto, Patrick McHenry, states, time run out. >> Um if you're waiting for there to be
[07:16] some kind of grand bargain deal in which you have, you know, call it 10 Democrats in advance saying, "Leader Thune, please put this on the floor. We can't wait to forever. It's It's just never going to happen. That's not how Democrats have
[07:29] Um unfortunately, I I genuinely mean it Um you know, I'd certainly be a lot less stressed and I slept a lot more for the past year, but um
[07:43] you know, we we are doing our best to to answer every one of the uh the issues policy objectives. I mean that sincerely. Um even on ethics, as we saw yesterday, you know, nobody thought that we could actually um you know, produce
[07:58] an ethics provision that had real teeth and that included the president. We did. We've answered every one of their um their issues that they've raised. >> And which altcoins will do the best if {slash} when clarity's passed, but also
[08:11] which altcoins will do the best if clarity doesn't pass, cuz the odds are low right now. We did share a top 14 crypto coins ready to explode. More and more of you are commenting how valuable this was, but an update is coming very
[08:27] this was, but an update is coming very soon. So, make sure you stay tuned.
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