Prediction Markets Explained — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:01] of the most asked questions that you guys will not stop bothering me about in my DMs, in my comments, in my YouTube comments, in my TikTok comments, in my Instagram comments, everywhere about prediction markets. Okay, Polymarket,

[00:15] Prediction markets are so so huge, they're trending, they're viral all over Instagram, all over TikTok, all over the news, everywhere. And you would be a fool to not educate yourself on this topic or

[00:29] even integrate them into your betting rotation if you are currently betting on rotation if you are currently betting on sports or or whatever you're doing. Um to answering these questions for you, but a little bit about me. I'm a

[00:42] doing this for about two or three years now. In 2025, I made over $250,000 and I'm doing very very well for myself this year as well. But first, why do people love prediction markets so much? Okay? I believe it's

[00:57] markets so much? Okay? I believe it's because one, it has a lot more than just sports. You can bet on [ __ ] like the weather, you can bet on politics, you can bet on world wars. There's just so many things and with the degeneracy of

[01:11] society today, everybody loves to gamble. Everybody loves to put their money on stupid [ __ ] in hopes of winning a lot more money in return. But that's enough rambling from me. Let's get into question number one. Why are sharp

[01:25] sports bettors moving to prediction markets? The short answer is because sports books hate winners. Right? Sports books, when they first got legalized in 2018, quant traders and and even average people made a [ __ ] ton of money,

[01:40] millions of dollars off of them off of the market inefficiencies. And over the past few years of sports betting and and be it becoming more mainstream, these bookies have gotten a ton more smarter on cracking down on sharp sports

[01:53] bettors, on sharp strategies, on winners as a whole. Now, keep in mind, it use if you're profitable, if you are consistently winning, the books will limit you and cut down your bet sizes. And using strategies like arbitrage

[02:07] basically insured to profit consistently, it's a pain in the ass and very tedious to keep these strategies consistently bringing you in profits, to to basically keep them sustainable. Right? Because

[02:22] things about trying to prevent limits and and and rotating books and and finding more accounts and doing all of these things, which again is very very possible and I teach you how to do all of these things, but prediction markets

[02:35] work very similarly to exchanges, right? Novig and Profit X, where you're the house, you're betting against other traders, you're you're betting against And so, because they operate like this, you don't get limited. You don't get

[02:49] much you win. You could win a million dollars, you could win a billion Because you're betting against other people, you're being charged a fee, and All they want for you to do is to use their platform. They could care less how

[03:02] much you win, how much you profit. Right now, prediction markets are one of the now, prediction markets are one of the newest and least efficient places to find an edge, to find discrepancies to take advantage of. Because all of these

[03:15] profitable traders, right? It It's funny. With insider trading, all of the funny. With insider trading, all of the insider information is private, but with with prediction markets, insider trading exists and it happens. And the funny

[03:28] thing about it is you can see when it happens. Obviously, they're not going to this is insider information." But there are so many things and variables that are so many things and variables that you can take into account that you can

[03:42] reasonably assume that you will have an edge by tailing. And this is what the OddsJam prediction Traders Tool does is it shows you where the insiders are

[03:55] existing, where the whales are putting their money down. So, in prediction portfolio is public. People that are winning hundreds of millions of dollars, you can see exactly what they're betting on. So, you can see large positions,

[04:08] flows, things like everything that can be tracked publicly, right? The real advantage is not having insider information. It's being able to identify the most profitable bets inside

[04:22] of the market. And using the tool, OddsJam actually takes all of this data, puts it into its algorithm, and filters out the market to show you where the profit is, where the edge is, where your advantage is. The crazy thing about it

[04:38] is, with the algorithm, it actually shows you how profitable it is over, you know, maybe like the past 30 days. Now, I'll show you an example right now, just so I can explain it a bit better. But, using the

[04:51] Sniper 2.0 model, which is one of the models inside of the tool, at a $250 average bet size, at around only 10 bets per day, you would have been up $5,000 in the last 30 days.

[05:05] that you see on the tool. You don't have to like go look at all of these stats. and be fast, like you have to do with arbitrage betting and learn all these arbitrage betting and learn all these different variables. Copy trading is

[05:17] very easy, and it's that simple, and the tool does it all for you. So, if you in the description below. But, moving on to question number two. How do prediction markets differ from

[05:31] the limits, prediction markets work in forms of contracts. So, contracts to the dollar, very similar to buying stocks, right? Instead of having odds, like minus 120 or plus 120, you're going to see cents.

[05:48] Right? So, for example, you can buy a money line contract for 60 cents to the dollar. If it hits, your profit is going to be 40 cents. certain amount of contracts for that amount of money, and you can kind of do

[06:01] the math and and see how that works. But, everything else is is pretty much relatively very similar to how sports betting works. So, you can actually track liquidity on these as well. Right? So, we have things that are called bids,

[06:15] we have things that are called asks, and we have things that are called spreads. things, you can actually track based off of the slippage percentage on the tool. Um so, similar to sports books or

[06:30] similar to exchanges, I mean, you can actually see the liquidity. So, the slippage is how good of a price are you getting this at? And Odd Jam color codes it based off of uh I guess like the rank or or how much

[06:44] of a price difference there is. And you can also, very similar again to stocks or like a brokerage account, you can set limit orders, and you can create contracts. And this is something that you can go

[06:59] and and play with and and figure out on your own, but personally, I would just start off by learning how these work, and just using the Odd Jam tool, and and letting it do its job

[07:13] for you. Okay? And and just keep it simple. Next question, how is this legal? Okay? The short answer is because it's structured differently than traditional gambling. Okay? Prediction markets are often regulated as financial

[07:27] exchanges. So, you're buying and selling probabilities. You're not like quote-unquote gambling, but markets that can exist on things like elections, on weather. This is all based off of

[07:39] probability. So, you're buying and selling those types of contracts, and that's where the legal framework is like essentially completely different. And the last question, can you actually make a lot of money doing this?

[07:52] In the last month, in the last 30 days, I think I made around $20,000, dollars. Um from a mix of strategies of arbitrage betting, positive EV, and a large portion of it was actually from these

[08:07] tool. And being able to understand that it was never about picking winners. It was never about trying to guess who's going to go over, who's going to go under,

[08:21] who's going to win tonight's game, but it was more about the more broad perspective of taking advantage of discrepancies, that you get, and understanding that it's a long-term game.

[08:34] lose a ton of money, and there's going to be days when it feels like this isn't profitable. I'm going to explain it using a coin. I don't have a coin, but I'll use this

[08:46] Imagine you're playing with an edge every single time. Okay? If you're consistently playing with an edge, let's say, for example, 56% edge to a 44% edge. This coin, this bottle, it's a 56%

[08:59] chance to land on heads and a 44% chance to land on tails. If you flip this bottle bottle cap 10 times, there's a very high chance that it's going to land on tails. Even if you flip it a hundred times,

[09:12] bottle cap is going to land on tails more than it lands on heads. And even if You're the one betting the money on heads, you might lose money in the short But, if you flip it a thousand times, if you flip it 10,000 times, you're going

[09:27] probability. And that's what the law of large numbers means is if you increase the volume, if you think more in the long term, in the bigger picture, you will be profitable. You will average out to the true probability. And that's

[09:40] comes to anything gambling, anything probability, term. No matter whether you're betting on prediction markets, no matter whether exchanges or at the casino, you have to think in terms of edge. If you're

[09:56] discrepancies, if you can take advantage of inefficiencies, you will be But yeah, I mean, [clears throat] long story short, guys, prediction markets are I'm very, very bullish on them. And if you're not using them yet, I highly

[10:10] link to all of them so you can sign up in the description below. But you should at least at the very least educate yourself on the topic because I mean, if it's on the news, it's worth knowing about.