Crypto Alert: Smart Money Is Stepping In

[00:01] is hardly a bad price, is it? The fud doesn't really latch on these days. Uh people just don't believe it, right? Cuz it's an institutional asset. have that kind of just fundamental belief.

[00:14] There's no uh hysterics around Bitcoin. It's just mode, which is fine. But, what you're seeing we'll go through this is on-chain data showing that you're in that kind of

[00:26] bottoming out phase of a drawdown uh that you get in bear markets. We've only go on for another couple of months, 3 6 months, 8 months, whatever. So, we're in that position now where supply in profit and loss starting to change hands where

[00:41] loss, as you can see here, which means that why would you sell for a loss unless you're doing a tax loss harvest or something like that, which is fine. But, you get to these levels where sellers

[00:53] to sell for a loss. We'll just keep it. Or actually, I have sold for a loss and you know, made me capitulate, and eventually the buyers start to step in. maybe we need to go through this for another 3 to 6 months. Um but, it's not

[01:08] actually uh bad news that we're down here in terms of you looking at prices, right? The difference is we're in a bear market at 60k or 50k rather than like 15 or 5, right? Net long-term uh position

[01:22] too early to call this an accumulation regime. The return to persistent long-term buying provides an encouraging encouraging signal that the conviction conviction, right? It just gets to a price eventually where everyone that was

[01:34] going to sell, which is kind of short-term traders or whatever else or bear market cuz they're afraid or whatever, eventually they just all leave And that's when you get the rotation. It's fine.

[01:48] right now. It's absolutely fine. Why do you want an urgent bear market, right? probably puked up before. Cuz if you're really urgent and you're trying to sell, well, there's two ways you sell. Either people puff the price up to try and get

[02:01] you to sell or they dump it down, right? To try and get it to sell and puke. And right? They puke up in a in a bear market and that's it. that has done that and then you build again.

[02:14] few narratives. I don't think any of them are massive, right? Clarity Act, doesn't, I think it's also good news just to get it out of the way, but um we have to wait for that, right? Even if it passes

[02:27] year is when it may go to a vote. So, it's still touch and go. Um but look, that. The Trump accounts, he was asked if they I'm not sure if that can happen. Again, I don't I don't think it's massive news.

[02:40] trying to feed through the press now as well, um as a positive kind of catalyst. That's fine, but they've got the Bitcoin already, right? Buying new Bitcoin is a

[02:52] is a whole new step, which takes even longer. So, don't see any any of these things as like really massive catalysts. catalyst. And there doesn't need to be one because this is a desirable asset

[03:06] people step in. The catalyst will be the price just and then you get chasers. And then chasers come in and everyone feels more confident again. Um but it doesn't go up 7 8 900% maybe it doubles or 150 200%

[03:22] 250%. That'll be a good bull market in the future. Um but that's fine, right? buyer of Bitcoin long term and so you buy here or you don't. That's it. And if wait until you do break those moving averages.

[03:37] right? Cuz no one wants to catch a falling knife, but look, rotation's definitely happening. And it's the same behavior over and over and over again, which is price goes up, some people sell, pukes down, some people

[03:50] where they've done that and the buyers start to step in again and then the price moves again. So, it's just the rotation over and over and over again. And the long term is that it just keeps moving higher over time in waves, right?

[04:04] that we just keep moving higher in in waves. Bitcoin yearly lows, and it's not just the lows that are getting higher over time, it is the amount of volume Eventually, all of the short-term traders and

[04:17] flippers and everything else get in and get out, but the long term, you just is the most important thing, right? The levels. Every single short-term trader, everyone that's ever made profit that

[04:29] is eventually going to have to have sold. And then eventually, it's like, these prices. Prices have to move higher." That's just the attrition that short-term, if you want to wait for a bounce, maybe above this moving average,

[04:43] they'll give you a deposit bonus as a new user. So, click the link. You can free. If you want to trade, you can make a deposit, they'll give you a deposit bonus to trade with up to $30,000. Saylor is much more intelligent than me,

[04:56] I can happily admit that, and I'm still trying to work through the ramifications of buying high and selling low. Now, I was always taught that you would buy low, you would buy the bottom, and then sell when the price goes up. He's

[05:09] doing it the opposite way around, which is a new strategy for me. Um look what they're having to do here. The whole thing is they're trying to get in the S&P 500, which would their preferreds are junk or their bonds

[05:22] get in the S&P 500. They're trying to increase their credit quality with the that. So, that's the strategy for them is that Bitcoin's in a bear market. This thing's down what, 75, 80%? The trade is

[05:37] take a flyer on it because it might get in the S&P. And if you get in the S&P, then you just open up a flood of capital that is never going to look at your company otherwise, right? If they get in the S&P, the amount of money that just

[05:49] has to flow into their stock, um like just indiscriminate buying, you have to And you have to index everything, right? So, you'll get a lot more buyers for the They have they have um extracted all of the

[06:05] capital they can from this current pond that they're in, right? Which is retail investors um buying and selling in their accounts. But, the vast amount of money is invested not by individuals, right? It's invested um just automatically

[06:18] through indexes and everything else. That's the game here. Like, I wouldn't worry about the day-to-day. The reason they sold the Bitcoin is because the stocks crashed. So, they don't have any equity there. They're trying to they

[06:30] have to sell the Bitcoin, but they're also look going to the ratings agency Bitcoin to fund these dividends. Please give us a better rating. Please consider It's a long game. That's the trade here is it's down 75%

[06:44] fly that it might get in the S&P 500. And look, they don't want to sell the they're in a bear market. And yeah, look, buying the high, that's what they can do, right? They buy the highs cuz that's when their stock actually gains

[06:58] what they have. So, the stock expands in bull markets, so they buy more at high prices, and they puke at the bottom. Just the exact but it's just the way that it works, right? In any case, Adam Moosa's great

[07:13] for um uh strategy stuff. If you look at the company, the common equity Bitcoin exposure is 7.4% higher than the week of the strategy is still working. They're selling some, but on a net basis, they

[07:26] are buyers. Um and so, in a bear market, you can see here STRC isn't trading at par, so they're not buying any from that. They can't buy any from that. So, it's kind of like a worst-case scenario. It's

[07:39] down 75%. Bitcoin's down 50 plus percent. It We're in a bear market. It's not good right now. But they won't blow up. And so when they move on somewhere else. And then you just again it's this rotation of of

[07:53] narratives and everything else. The things that will collapse have done so. through a bad period and then move on eventually as you just have to move on, different cycle. So look, they're adding more Bitcoin net

[08:07] totally fine. Um they're puking up at the bottom, but the big wave here, right? The next wave is strategy enters the S&P 500 and you it's like we've we've maxed out the amount of money and capital that can

[08:22] come into Bitcoin and strategy and all that right now. Right? We have to move into a another pool of capital, a bigger pool of capital. It's going to take time for the preferreds from strategy and strive and

[08:36] everyone to season so that can encourage more capital in. Right? You just have to wait. You just have to wait. Price is low, that's fine. You just have to wait. But as you come into new pools of capital,

[08:48] right? Then you start to move higher into into these regions. And then you here again, you can maybe sell. But we're looking at the next bull market, 200k, 300k,

[09:01] can't sell here, right? You can't sell here. In fact, if you look at Bitcoin the indexes, look, Bitcoin outperformed big time. And we're underperforming. So since the ETFs launched,

[09:15] indexes. So, bad, right? But of course, if you looked up here, we outperformed them for the bear market. What do you want to buy here? Do you want to buy the Nasdaq

[09:28] with the one year at 32%. The Nasdaq annualizes usually around 18%. We're up 30% already. The S&P is having an amazing year, usually S&P is having an amazing year, usually up like 10 12% it's up 20%. They may go

[09:41] sideways for another 6 months, which they have been doing. Uh and still have absolutely amazing years. They can go sideways till the end put in absolutely like blockbuster years. The best years ever, right?

[09:54] they not to say they won't continue to outperform. Right? But if you're looking at differentials here, if Bitcoin outperforms them during periods and it's massively

[10:06] underperforming them now. Like what's the better asset to be in? and less in these? Now, these are going to grow for sure, look forward maybe 5 years or so, is this a good price of Bitcoin versus

[10:19] these these two indexes right now? I I would consider yes. I understand the do need the US government to support Bitcoin and be positive on it for the right, I know Bitcoin is about, you know, self-sovereignty and down with the

[10:33] that, which is is great, but it's not practical. The government is large, it's government. If they're positive on Bitcoin, that's good news uh and it countries etc. can just get more into it and hold it and use it as money, which

[10:48] is the whole point, right? And if they do, then we know that the exchange rate versus those fiat is eventually going to just melt higher over time. So look, the strategic reserve thing is is nonsense, doesn't mean anything. They

[11:00] already hold the Bitcoin. Right? They already take it away from criminals and and like civil or criminal forfeitures, right? So they already do Making it official is good news, but it doesn't really change anything and it

[11:13] they're not going to be buying any Bitcoin, right? The only possible feed through from this is very long term about a reserve that potentially prevents the sale of Bitcoin in the future if if the government

[11:26] changes in the future in the US. So that would be good news, but that's long term for a bull market. And the other thing is potentially with cryptography changes Trump just signed an executive order, I think, to um you know, put resources

[11:40] research there. So, if that happens over time, now Bitcoin is can and will upgrade cryptography and issue for active coins. But, Satoshi's coins, who's going to take those?

[11:54] only two actors that can do this. So, the best possible outcome is for the US to be leading there and to take those coins and put them in a reserve. And that's how they would get a massive chunk of the network.

[12:07] They would do that before they start smash buying Bitcoin. That's a very quantum can do that. It's a long way away, but that's a possible outcome in the future. Maybe that's what they're thinking and

[12:20] again, it's not like a short-term narrative that can pump us into a bull market, right? It's uh long-term thinking here. And that's what you need move higher and break through some moving averages, people start to get

[12:33] excited again. Maybe we can start chasing it again. Um but, as of right it's fine by me. If you do trade short-term or long-term, you want to buy it on Bybit. Click the link in the description for up to a $30,000 deposit

[12:47] to watching, and I'll see you in the next one.