Why I Skip Trading on FOMC Days
60sReveals a professional trader's rule to avoid trading on high-impact news days, sparking curiosity and debate.
▶ Play Clip"Delivers a genuine live FOMC trading session with real analysis, though it's padded with mentorship plugs and Q&A."
In this live trading session, the host walks viewers through his thought process and strategy for trading the FOMC day, focusing on ES and NQ futures. He emphasizes the importance of patience, reading price action, and not forcing trades, especially during high-volatility news events. The video covers his pre-FOMC bias, live market analysis, and key trading psychology principles.
The host starts the live stream, mentioning they have 30 minutes before the FOMC announcement. He sets the tone for the session, emphasizing patience and the importance of the upcoming event.
The host shares his view that the Fed is likely to cut rates, which would be short-term bullish for the market. However, he notes that price action may still push towards existing draw on liquidity.
He explains his personal rule to skip the morning session on FOMC days to avoid overtrading and to be more patient. He mentions that there was an A+ setup in the morning that he didn't take.
The host stresses that while news can affect price, it's crucial to focus on price action and intentional trading. He advises not to force trades just because it's FOMC.
He identifies recent lows on ES and NQ as potential targets. He expects the market to initially dump from Powell's speech, then possibly reverse higher after manipulation.
The host explains that the first 15 minutes of FOMC often involve manipulation, and he wants to see down close candles act as resistance to continue lower.
He reiterates that the most important thing is to watch price action, not whether the Fed cuts rates. He plans to let the market tell the story.
The host discusses that if the Fed cuts rates, the market might push to new all-time highs, but that's okay as it builds more price action and liquidity for future trades.
He shares that he trades better when the market is building ranges, not in expansion markets. He prefers to wait for favorable conditions rather than force trades.
He explains that if internal sellside is taken but external sellside remains, the probability of a bullish reversal is lower. He advises to wait for external liquidity to be taken.
The host addresses the frustration of missing a setup, advising to focus on learning and improving rather than dwelling on missed opportunities.
He introduces the analogy of a mental ladder, where traders focus on outcomes instead of inputs. He emphasizes not tying your identity to your trading results.
He advises that attaching money to your identity leads to unhappiness. Instead, focus on improvement and learning from mistakes.
The host recaps his bias: Fed likely cuts rates, short-term bullish, but market shows bearish signs. He outlines possible scenarios for FOMC open.
He emphasizes that predicting the market is pointless. Instead, recognize price action in the moment and base decisions on new data.
He advises against moving stops to break even too early. Accept the risk and let the trade play out.
He suggests that overmanaging adds unnecessary decisions that skew data. Focus on entry and stop loss, then let the trade work.
He suggests that if you're struggling, consider paying a professional to manage your trading, rather than trying to do it all yourself.
He explains the difference between change in state and market structure shift, noting that change in state requires displacement and price action confirmation.
He reiterates his bias: Fed likely cuts rates, but he wants to align price action with the news. He outlines possible outcomes: bullish open with rebalance, or bearish open with sellside taken.
He warns not to put on heavy risk during FOMC due to extreme volatility. Better opportunities likely tomorrow and Friday.
He notes that ES is more bullish, and NQ might reject. He wants to see how price reacts to the 4-hour fair value gap.
He expects a rebalance higher at 2:00 open, then possibly lower. He is watching for confirmation.
He decides not to watch the speech, focusing on price action instead. He notes the market is rebounding to the 4-hour fair value gap.
He observes that ES is holding a bullish inefficiency, while NQ is showing bearish order flow. He expects ES to run towards new highs if NQ continues lower.
He emphasizes patience, noting that it's been less than 5 minutes since FOMC open. He advises not to chase moves.
He sees a bearish SMT on NQ but wants more internal price action before considering a short.
He notes that ES and NQ are disorrelated, with ES more bullish. He expects ES to lead higher if NQ doesn't show bearish order flow.
He notes that sellside was taken, but he needs more information. He advises not to chase and to wait for a clear setup.
He warns against trying to trade both directions, as it leads to getting chopped up. Focus on high-quality setups.
He remains bearish but needs confirmation. He wants to see a rejection of the inefficiency to go lower.
He advises to zoom out when in doubt. He reviews the FOMC open: highs taken, 1-hour inefficiency respected, bearish SMT.
He emphasizes that not taking a trade is part of success. He doesn't force trades without conviction.
He notes a sweep of a low without displacement, then immediate reversal higher. He is watching for confirmation.
He notes that ES is holding down close candles, which is bullish. He might consider a long if it validates.
He is skeptical of a long because the internal low was already taken. He prefers to let the market do its thing.
He notes a failed displacement, then a sweep of the high, stopping out shorts. He is hesitant to take anything due to FOMC.
He advises to check 'Adjust for contract changes' on TradingView to avoid chart distortions.
He reiterates that his goal is to educate, not to force trades. He doesn't need to take a trade on FOMC.
He advises most viewers to be patient and not put on unnecessary risk. He expects a possible reversal later.
He recommends journaling no-trade days to understand your decision-making process.
He explains that not taking a trade is part of setting an example. He hasn't taken a trade all week.
He suggests waiting for after lunch EST for PM trading, as AM sessions are higher probability.
He advises setting a max trade rule (e.g., two trades) and caring more about following the rule than making money.
He emphasizes journaling break-even trades to identify patterns.
He mentions Trade Path, a trade journal with AI, offering 25% off with code TT25.
He rarely trades London session, maybe once a month, due to lack of conviction.
He uses an indicator called SND profile to mark sessions.
He suggests that if you lose more than you win, your risk-reward is skewed or you're taking unnecessary losses. Journaling helps identify issues.
He recommends Apex, Topstep, or Tradeify as good prop firms.
He references his new psychology video and notes a possible long setup if the market pulls back to an inefficiency.
He expects the market to go higher after taking sellside, but only with a valid change in state.
He emphasizes that the market will give more opportunities, so it's okay to miss a trade.
He explains that demotivation comes from caring too much about money. Focus on patience and discipline.
He shares that it took him three years to become profitable, working as a busboy and pizza delivery guy.
He advises treating yourself as already successful to operate at a different level.
He suggests going on a walk and not falling into the guilt cycle. You are not your mistakes.
He advises journaling to identify mistakes and improve. Write down lessons on post-it notes.
He shares his chart settings: canvas, symbol, white bodies, gray down candles, black borders.
He outlines a long entry: low taken, pullback to breaker, hold, then enter long with stop at recent low.
He explains that FOMC days have fast moves and rebalances, while normal days build more price action.
He discusses fear of losing conviction in yourself, not just money. Eradicate the idea that a loss dictates your journey.
He suggests practicing on a paper account to focus on execution.
He explains that without a clear swing high, there's no validation for a change in state.
He mentions moving his first trade to break even.
He emphasizes having personal conviction in your trading, not caring what others think.
He explains that if a low gets taken and holds, he enters long. If it fails, he gives himself two tries.
He questions an SMT, noting that a high was not taken on ES or NQ, so it's not valid.
He mentions trailing his stop and making two trades for the day.
He recommends watching the replay to understand his thought process and patience.
He describes the mentorship program, including a professional psychologist, daily live trading, and data analysis.
He explains that to confirm a reversal, you need to see displacement and external draw. If buy side is taken, expect a sweep and rejection.
He states there is no valid entry at the moment.
He advises not to trade if you're emotional due to outside events, like a family death.
He advises not to compare yourself to others, as it leads to dissatisfaction.
He notes that after the internal low is taken, there are no trades. Let the market do its thing.
He explains the weekly structure: Friday form, Sunday coaching call, Monday live trading and charting, Tuesday live trading, Wednesday psychology session, Friday live trading.
He directs viewers to the link in the description to book a call. The program is selective.
He explains that an SMT needs logic behind it, like an external draw. Otherwise, it's meaningless.
The mentorship lasts six months.
He mentions payment plans, possibly splitting into 2-3 months.
He notes that beginners and advanced traders struggle with similar issues.
He mentions a 60-video course curriculum A to Z.
He describes the mentorship community as motivated and hardworking.
He mentions being in Serbia and enjoying it.
He shares that he sold a $200k car because materialism doesn't bring happiness.
He opens for final questions, offering advice.
He explains that a change in state requires displacement and a clearly defined swing high.
He admits losing money in his first year, but his parents were supportive.
He typically trades 9:30 to 11:00 AM, but on FOMC days he trades PM.
He lost $40-50k before becoming profitable.
He congratulates a viewer on quitting weed and finding a higher power.
He advises not to anticipate a loss on a winning streak. Treat each day as new.
He advises not to stress about outside pressure. You are becoming the person to accomplish your goals.
He explains that ES and NQ are correlated but don't follow each other. Disorrelation gives hints about market direction.
He emphasizes pushing yourself to be the best version of yourself and having a deeper purpose.
He encourages viewers to journal and watch the replay. He plans to do more live sessions.
The video provides a comprehensive look at trading FOMC day with a focus on patience, price action, and risk management. The host emphasizes the importance of not forcing trades and maintaining a strong trading psychology.
What is the host's personal rule on FOMC days?
He skips the morning session to be more patient and avoid overtrading.
02:09
What does the host believe about the Fed cutting rates?
It is short-term bullish for the market.
01:43
What is the difference between change in state and market structure shift?
Change in state requires displacement and price action confirmation, while market structure shift is similar but may not require displacement.
22:11
What is the host's advice on overmanaging positions?
Don't move your stop to break even too early; accept the risk and let the trade play out.
19:00
What is the host's recommended max trade rule?
Set a max of two trades per day and care more about following the rule than making money.
01:19:29
How much did the host lose before becoming profitable?
He lost $40-50k.
02:20:42
What is the host's typical trading hours?
He trades 9:30 to 11:00 AM, but on FOMC days he trades PM.
02:20:01
What is the host's advice on journaling?
Journal all trades, including no-trade days and break-even trades, to identify patterns and improve.
01:14:41
What is the host's view on materialism?
Materialism will never satisfy you; it brings short-term satisfaction only.
02:17:17
What is the host's advice on handling emotional trading?
Go on a walk and don't fall into the guilt cycle. You are not your mistakes.
01:38:37
What is the host's recommended prop firms?
Apex, Topstep, or Tradeify.
01:26:09
What is the host's advice on comparing yourself to others?
Don't compare yourself to others; be grateful for your own progress.
02:04:21
What is the host's view on predicting the market?
There's no reason to predict; recognize price action in the moment and base decisions on new data.
16:40
What is the host's advice on trading during FOMC?
Don't put on heavy risk; the market moves extremely fast. Better opportunities likely tomorrow and Friday.
24:15
What is the host's advice on becoming profitable?
It took him three years; focus on learning and improving, not on money.
01:36:44
Fed rate cut bias
Sets the stage for the entire trading session, explaining the short-term bullish expectation.
01:43Skipping AM session on FOMC
A practical rule to avoid overtrading on high-volatility days.
02:09Mental ladder analogy
Explains why traders feel stuck on a hamster wheel by idolizing outcomes over inputs.
11:42Don't tie money to identity
A core psychological principle for long-term trading success.
13:33Avoid overmanaging positions
Highlights a common mistake that skews trading data and consistency.
19:00Three years to profitability
Provides realistic expectations and motivation for struggling traders.
01:36:44Correlated assets and SMT
Explains how disorrelation between ES and NQ gives hints about market direction.
02:24:07[00:22] are we good? Are we on? Hello. How are we doing, guys? announcement real quick. How's everybody doing? Happy Wednesday.
[00:38] to We got to get the vibes off, right? It's FC. Obviously, we're going to see that we're doing good. How we doing, guys? Look at that handsome man, bro. guys? Look at that handsome man, bro. Stop it. Stop it.
[00:56] Come stop by. Let's hopefully get some good PA. then uh let's start chatting. We got we got 30 minutes before FOMC. So
[01:43] Wilson, David. We don't cut today. towards a cut. To be honest, I I think it's short-term bullish for the market,
[01:56] but based off of kind of where we are right now in price action and kind of kind of I'll kind of run you guys through what I was looking for morning in the morning. So, I skipped out on the morning. Every time that we have FOMC, I
[02:09] Doesn't necessarily mean that there's not going to be trades, but it's more so a rule that I have. I'm always way more patient because I everybody's waiting for FOMC if the and in today's spec specifically a very important FOMC
[02:24] meeting. Um so going into the morning there actually was I'm very curious did anybody take um this short in the morning market at open was showing uh signs of continuing to sell off on the one hour. We were
[02:40] continuously respecting that 1 hour fair value gap on ES NQ in the overnight session or yesterday 2 p.m. or 3 p.m. before close ended up tapping into it. But this morning ES ends up going higher, tapping back into the 1 hour for
[02:53] value gap. Internal buy set ends up getting taken. We put in an SMT and then on ES or on NQ, sorry, market ends up opening. We end up breaking to the downside and then coming back up to respect the
[03:06] breaker back to OT of the range. We end up selling all the way back off, take the internal low first, pull back, and then kind of sell off through this. This I was trading in the morning, this would have 100% been an A+ setup. Um, I'm
[03:20] have 100% been an A+ setup. Um, I'm curious anybody else took it.
[03:32] surprised. And again, this is kind of like the thing too where you you'll kind of get days where news affects price and news doesn't affect price, but you have to always ask yourself like what's the more intentional and like better focus
[03:47] to do because there's going to be some days like today where FOMC and you I I for FOMC later in the PM. But there still was a good setup AM session. So that doesn't mean like next FOMC or all of the FOMC's going forward, I'm going
[03:59] session because the majority of the time, you know, that's unfortunately not what we're going to see. So let's talk a little bit about what I want to see here going into FOMC. So we have 25 minutes and there's a couple things that I want
[04:12] you guys to keep in mind. Number one, there is a higher likelihood that the Fed is going to cut rates. If the Fed cuts rates, that is short-term bullish. I do not specifically believe that if the Fed cuts rates, the market is just
[04:25] the market will push towards the already existing draw in liquidity. So when we look at just price action, right, we want to look at price action to gain an understanding and then when Powell ends up starting to speak, looking at how
[04:39] price is reacting to these areas. So number one, let's take a look at ES and NQ and kind of the different the differences between the two. I want to see ES and NQ draw towards this recent low. Now this low on NQ is this low on
[04:53] low. Now this low on NQ is this low on ES. So market could end up dumping initially from POW. And normally what we want to see is the first 15 minutes of FOMC we want to have be manipulation and then reverse back higher. So what I
[05:08] would like to see going into FOMC is because the morning had already had this manipulation on ES. I like I would really want to see these down close candles still act as resistance if we come back up to them and act as an order
[05:20] come back up to them and act as an order block to then continuously go lower. going to do. We're going to have to sit and watch and let price action tell us what the story is when FCO ends up opening up, but I would want to see us
[05:33] go lower first because there is external sellside liquidity. If we start to get bought up, I need to build a lot more confidence that we want to go back towards the morning highs. So internal low here just got taken on ES. There's
[05:46] to the upside again. It's way too soon. I need more confidence. We're going to candles. There's also a bunch of inefficiencies on NQ where we have a 1 hour for value gap, a 1 hour for value gap here. I'd like to see the market
[06:00] possibly rebalance back to OTE, back to equilibrium of this previous price leg. where we might even play a little bit more bullish, and possibly reject to go back lower.
[06:14] see. Um because I I I think the draw is still lower. So, we'll wait at open. We got some time or not at open, but we'll wait for FOMC. We'll see overall what we want to do. To be honest, I'm not super
[06:29] focused on if the Fed cuts rates or not cuts rates. Um, obviously we're going to pay attention to it and see what it is, but I think the most important thing is but I think the most important thing is to just watch price action.
[06:50] Bro, I know the thumbnail for this video is so old. I look so young and I'm literally like seducing the camera. I'm just like, it's so funny. I definitely need to get a new thumbnail because the one I have right now is like
[07:06] one I have right now is like you want to watch me trade love.
[07:24] see price push towards that. Hate trading all-time highs. That's also what I'm So, the unfortunate thing is is if Fed does likelihood that we'll just go to all-time highs again. Now, keep in mind
[07:40] though, Fed cutting rate is shortterm bullish. So, short-term bullish by we could go back to new new all-time highs, but I would be okay with that because we're now building price action in this range. So, let's say market just ends up
[07:52] like ripping and we do something like this. Well, now we have all of this more generated sellside liquidity to eventually build more price action with. where the market like builds more
[08:04] to start building more price action here. So that's a a way to look at it where we don't have to take a trade right now. Like we're in Q4. Many of you think a lot of people in general in the trading space have been having possibly
[08:21] a hard time trading all-time highs because they don't know when to put on size, when to be aggressive versus waiting for the market to present conditions that are actually favorable for them. And I do not trade well in
[08:34] expansion markets. I trade well when the market is building ranges and actually has price action to base ideas off of. There's liquidity on both sides of the market. When we are just in a trend, right, when the market is just making
[08:47] higher highs and higher lows, there isn't a lot of high probab probability that get taken on the way. And that will happen, right? In a bullish trend here low, continue higher, right? Take that
[09:00] opportunity that I can only really take to, you know, have a have a high quality hoping that we're going to start building kind of some more PA on the know, a better understanding of what we want to do.
[09:16] Is that coffee or tea? This is coffee. The rest of my coffee that's cold from the morning. I was sipping on this. It was on my desk. I won't lie. It's very was on my desk. I won't lie. It's very cold, but I'm going to sip on it.
[09:47] When sellside got swept, didn't you expect a bullish move? What sells side
[10:03] still think that we have lower to go. Now internal sellside gets taken but draw is lower lower probability. If there's high quality sellside resting below and the market opens in the morning, takes the high, puts in a
[10:17] lower, and then this internal low gets taken, yeah, this internal low might me to say we go all the way back to this high. There's no, it makes no sense. We need to see some sort of external low get taken, then build more price action,
[10:32] then have a buy model that actually is set up from that move. just a tip for a lot of you guys if you find yourself like seeing oh this is a
[10:47] great setup sellside got taken breakup structure I'm going to take a long like zoom out and realize what had already happened like this is bearish order flow there's sellside liquidity resting you're fighting the external draw so it
[10:59] model if you're fighting the external draw it's going to be lower probability
[11:15] sleeping on high quality setups all the time. Read for the week and the textbook setup today wasn't taken by me. Well, ask yourself there. Why are you mad? You're mad because you didn't execute on a setup. Okay. Well, you're
[11:29] mad because you didn't have the chance to make money. If you look at it from the perspective of I'm just going to focus on learning and improving it. You're not going to have that problem. And another thing, too, is anytime that
[11:42] you make a mistake in trading, your brain wants to play victim and and and guilt trip you into making you more focused on the problem than identifying the lesson from it. And that is the hardest thing where what happens is in
[11:57] about the analogy I've been using recently is like u we all have a mental ladder right where we're so focused on improving our trading and like gosh man really want to improve and it's like okay I I I one step up I had a good day
[12:11] the ladder oh great I'm doing so well oh two steps two steps back down oh one step back down oh I broke my rules I had a lost day and that's why it feels like a lot of you guys are on a hamster wheel with your your path to profitability
[12:25] because you're idolizing the outcome instead of the input and your ability to view it as your identity. The problem is is many of you guys attach your outcomes and the experiences that you're experiencing as your identity. So that's
[12:38] stressed. That's why you feel anxious. When in reality, your identity is completely separate. I am not my trading. I am not my YouTube. I am not anything. I am just me. my trading, my outcomes, my mistakes are just
[12:53] causations where then I can reflect and say, what was the action or intention I had that made me make that mistake? And then I can go at it from a third person oh my gosh, I can't make I can't believe I did this. Like, I hate myself, but
[13:06] more in the sense of, okay, I made this mistake. I know that this was a mistake and I feel this way because it's a humanistic reaction to tell me it was a mistake. We are not supposed to hold on to that mistake or hold on to that guilt
[13:20] learn from it from a third person perspective and say, you know, I care more about improvement than I do, you know, wallowing in my own guilt or my make the mistake, you move on, and you improve. Don't tie it to your identity.
[13:33] Don't tie money to your identity. You're never going to be happy if that's the never going to be happy if that's the case.
[13:58] It's been pretty chill. Got some work done in the morning. Um had a little interview with another trader in the space, but hopped on the charts just a little bit recently to kind of see where we are.
[14:16] I have no idea if I'm going to take a trade. I might. I could. I got to see trade. I might. I could. I got to see what FOMC does first.
[14:38] morning were were really nice. I think it was A+ model that we just went over. Market opens on ES puts the SMT in bearish SMT on NQ. We end up state. Pull back to it. End ups continuing to sell lower. I think it
[14:52] through this real quick because we're having some some more people start to come in. Going into the day, I want to run you guys through my bias and a couple and a couple things to focus on with with FOMC. Number one, most likely
[15:04] cuts rates, it's short-term bullish. Doesn't necessarily mean that I am bullish with trading the market. I think that the market is showing more signs of bearish. Let me tell you why. Number one, market opens, ES runs higher,
[15:20] rejects the bearish imbalance and has manipulation. The high gets taken, SMT gets put in, we start to have bearish order flow going lower. This internal me that we go back higher towards this
[15:32] high be protected until external sellside is taken. So going into FOMC, there's a couple things that we could do. Market could open on FOMC and we go higher. Now, what would I want to see if we go higher? Well, we have a 1 hour
[15:47] fair value gap that's resting in premium of this range. So, the morning open to would want to see us rebalance back to that 1 hour fair value gap. See if price wants to respect it to then possibly roll back over to go towards the
[16:01] external sell side. So, possibly do something like this. Now, let's say market opens and we sell first where we don't have a rebalance. We end up FOMC opens and we just have a move like this. If that's the case, most
[16:16] of the time there's going to be no trade, but I would then be looking to be internal price price action for it. So, there'll most likely be an SMT that gets put in play as ES is lower to taking
[16:28] put in play as ES is lower to taking this internal low than NQ is. And if we do have an SMT, that could give us conviction. But guys, one thing I want to tell you and and listen when I say this, there's no reason to predict.
[16:40] like, "Oh, well, I can think this can happen. This can happen." And like that's just us like wanting to be right. Like, oh, I'm going to oh, let me draw happens, I can be like, oh, I told you guys I don't care. What matters is is
[16:54] recognizing in the moment when price starts to print where new data is being based off of that data. That's all I care about. So, no idea what the market's going to do. I can hypothesize all I want, but let's wait for FOMC.
[17:09] Let's wait for 2:00. Let's see what ends up happening when price opens. and uh up happening when price opens. and uh we'll take it from there.
[17:32] especially in a society, especially in this society, especially as a young man. I 100% agree. It definitely is hard. But guess what? Being a good man and and having a strong sense of identity comes from doing the hard things. You want to
[17:47] know why the majority falls? Because they don't care to identify the problem. scroll on TikTok and are literally brainwashed every single day. That they doing than themselves because they are just consuming thousands of people's of
[18:00] day instead of being grateful for the one that they have. And then they ask anxious? Why am I stressed? because you human beings aren't meant to experience the things that society has formed into in the last 20 years. So yeah, of course
[18:14] the way that you want to live your life. Um, and I also identifying those things and saying like, I want to change. If you're constantly focused on making money and not having a deeper sense of
[18:26] purpose as to why you're making money or the actions of actually making that money, you'll constantly be in a chase. You'll never be satisfied. You'll literally never be satisfied with if you make a
[18:38] believe and ever want. You still won't be satisfied because happiness and stillness and contentment does not come from money and it doesn't come from from money and it doesn't come from worldly things.
[19:00] time but the model plays out but then my entries get chopped. back testing you can just stop time but live it's another story price goes without you
[19:13] chopped do you find yourself getting stopped out early if the case is then I and do not overmanage the position I think a lot of people have a problem where they enter the trade they want to move their stop to break even earlier
[19:27] of it going back to their price target once they're in profit just take the trade accept except Accept the risk and just let it do its thing.
[19:59] structure or should I just let it ride SL or TP? SLR or TP? Because you're now putting yourself in another position to make a decision that adds another factor into the probability of a game of probabilities. If you are just looking
[20:14] at the market and the only game and the only choice that you are saying is entry or not and what is my stop loss, right? So identify what the entry is, your idea, what the market is showing you and enter the trade. Now if you enter the
[20:28] another environment to make a decision, it's going to skew your data and it's you're sitting there saying, "Do I move my stop? Do I take it off early? Do I your entire consistency and your entire trading. So cut it out. Don't overmanage
[20:42] the position. Take the trade. Wait for high quality setups. Don't overmanage thing. If you have to set your limit orders, and then step away.
[21:30] The thing is is like I'll be honest with you, I have no [ __ ] clue. I I pay think any of you guys should try to do for trading. Like pay somebody that actually knows what they're doing and
[21:43] actually knows what they're doing and have them do it for you.
[21:56] onetime payment? Yeah, and we also have payment plans, too. from market structure shifts to change in the state? It's pretty much the same thing. I think I probably you started using change in the state like
[22:11] ago for market structure shift. And the really only difference is is you're just wick. Now, what you need to identify though and the differences and and disadvantages that I do see of change in the state is you you need to still
[22:25] identify displacement. You still need to identify displacement because there's identify displacement because there's sometimes where the market like like let's say that this is like my down close candle
[22:39] this high. This can sometimes cause you to get faked out where like we actually highs, but we did break above this. That's the only thing that I that I'm changing the state is you still want to identify price action affirming the
[22:54] identify price action affirming the break.
[23:08] I'm going to run this bias through you guys one more time. Fed is most likely going to cut rates. We'll see if they do. So, if they do cut
[23:21] market. Does that mean that I am obvious, you know, super bullish? Not necessarily. I want to align price action and what I can already recognize from where we are to what FOMC ends up doing when we open up at 2:00. So, a
[23:34] couple outcomes that I'm looking for. market ends up opening bullish for FOMC, rebalancing back to this 1 hour for value gap and back to OTE of the entire this morning and then possibly looking to go back lower towards the opposing
[23:47] draw liquidity because we have not taken external sellside yet. So or market at FOMC starts to open we chop go lower first once this is sellside is taken
[23:59] affirms a reversal to possibly take a long. So market opens first. If we end this holds bearish. If this gets ran through and we go higher, there's most likely no trade. Keep in mind, too, it's FOMC. Do not put on heavy risk today. Do
[24:15] The market is going to be moving extremely fast. There's going to be way better opportunity most likely tomorrow and Friday. This is educational. I'm guys do not do something dumb. This is not supposed to be flashy. Let's take a
[24:28] educational. So, let's see what the market does at 2:00 and I'll walk you market does at 2:00 and I'll walk you through my thought process.
[25:13] what I want to see. ES respect if we do want to go lower again like where we are on NQ would want to see that down close candle respect. Keep in mind we are in a bullish 4hour for gap that could still hold bullish
[25:26] So, we want to see how price reacts to this as well because this 4hour wick is this as well because this 4hour wick is starting to try to hold this. validation. We're starting to see it right now with a 15-minute break.
[25:42] So, so far I would most likely expect when Powell and 2:00 opens to rebalance when Powell and 2:00 opens to rebalance higher.
[26:08] low that got taken. Just slow move lower. Slow move lower. Just plac them see this rebalance and then go back lower. We got 3 minutes.
[26:54] to the left. Are we pumping towards highs? Are we taking highs? Are we in the middle of nowhere? Needs context. If the market's pumping, I don't care. I need to see what the context is.
[27:21] What up, dumb? Are you going to watch the speech? No. I mean, do you guys want me to pull it up,
[27:35] >> Committee today. We >> We'll have this open.
[27:48] minutes on. I don't want it to be a distraction, though.
[28:35] Gap. I just want to watch price. I want to to just continue to just run right through this. price possibly respect to then flip back bearish.
[28:49] Fact, I don't really want to watch PA. We're going to close it.
[29:07] currently right now rebouncing back to the 4 hour for value gap. Again, we want to shoot to alltime highs. We absolutely can have a 15-minute break. just got put in. So we'll kind of watch both outcomes here.
[29:55] Again, we want to give it like 10 15 minutes or so.
[30:41] fairly bullish on ES. We've been holding this 4hour bullish inefficiency.
[30:54] highs or not. If we come back down to this. So far we're disorrelated with an this. So far we're disorrelated with an assets
[31:34] asset showing a lot more bullish order flow continuing higher would most likely expect ES to run towards new highs. Nothing I can take here. If the market You just let it do its thing. Don't try to chase this. Don't feel FOMO. Let the
[31:47] we pull back to a bigger time frame in efficiency, which means 15 minutes at efficiency, which means 15 minutes at least has to go by
[32:23] This is very uh looking very bullish. Yes.
[32:51] and still just wanting to see. Hasn't even been 5 minutes yet.
[33:18] Every single day I'm live. I trade live every single day in in our I trade live every single day in in our in our mentorship.
[33:33] would just Totally be patient right now. No reason to touch anything.
[34:21] every morning, there should be a link in the description of the this live stream. then a link where you guys can fill out a form
[34:35] this. If ES wants to go higher, currently the market's flipped two guess what the market's doing. ES looks like we want to run towards all-time highs. NQ looks like we want to possibly reject this. There is a bearish SMT. I
[34:48] want to see who plays the higher role and who's pulling the market in its favor. So far, ES is pulling the market in its favor. I would need to see NQ show a very bearish order flow um to really gain an understanding if the
[35:01] market does want to sell off from where NQ is right now. And again, like I said too, normally the first 10, 15 minutes is what we want to wait for to then see possibly a reversal.
[35:21] So first sign of it, one minute for getting ran through.
[36:14] mentorship, guys? The my mentorship is not like anything. And again, this is like I'm telling you right now, it's everything that you need to be successful. We have a professional psychologist in our group that takes
[36:27] care of our traders to focus on having the right psychology needs. Full course every single morning. We have people that specifically reach out to members. We have forums making sure everybody's focusing on their rules.
[36:39] link in the description if you guys are interested in that and you'll be able to it actually is. Fill out a form, book a call, you'll get the information you're looking.
[37:05] is getting rejected. There's a bearish SMT, the one minute fur leg up just got entry. I would still want to see more internal price action get put in here. through. Right now, it's literally just this. If there's no high or manipulation
[37:22] through, I'm not confident in a short yet.
[37:40] Also, keep in mind ES is a lot more bullish.
[38:26] rejection here. Yes, is starting to come back as well. This 15-minute candle has back as well. This 15-minute candle has not even closed yet.
[38:38] bullish fair value gaps if we want to hold or not.
[38:54] in. The low that was created from FOMC ends up getting taken. If we do not little bit more bullish to go have another internal move. So we'll watch. Just looking at what price action is showing. This low did get taken. We'll
[39:09] wants to sell off or we want to hold this SMT and work our way back higher to see price go lower. 5m minute change in the state is currently getting put in where we close below these down close candles.
[39:46] Keep in mind we're now back to the initial change that we had.
[40:17] assets are disorrelated, I would be more bullish on ES and bearish on NQ. So when perspectives. I can say, well, we just put in a a bullish SMT from these lows on ES, right? big bullish SMT and we had big displacement higher on ES. So I
[40:34] towards new highs. This would be a break towards the upside. NQ on the bigger time frame is leaning more bearish.
[40:54] see if we want to sell through this. NQ is looking very very bearish. Pulling ES is looking very very bearish. Pulling ES with it.
[41:09] pullback to these down close candles. If these lows don't get taken in time, if we end up just dumping straight to the lows, there is no trade.
[41:46] this internal low gets taken. Would most likely expect a follow through to the likely expect a follow through to the external
[42:03] getting stressed that you did not take a trade, trade, you need to change that mindset.
[42:42] towards that external low. Could rebalance first. rebalance first. Just watching
[43:34] taken at this point in time. You put your hands up. We need to see more information. Now, sellside got taken. If we look at where ES is, ES ends up higher all the way back. Sells back off. This low that just got taken also just
[43:48] got low low low taken on ES. So if we end up continuing to sell off on ES, that's this next low. So we could put in a bullish SMT here. I can't touch this. Do not chase this. If you are getting anxious and like I need to take a trade,
[44:02] literally do not need to do anything. Ask yourself, am I actually in control? own decision-m. Sit here and do nothing. Low gets taken. We wait to see if there We want to see more price action get built.
[44:23] Really clean. Didn't personally have the setup that I was looking for to take a setup that I was looking for to take a shorts and I don't take a short
[45:40] not immediately trying to take longs to try to catch a reversal. trying to catch both side, you're just going to get chopped up back and forth going to get chopped up back and forth here.
[46:07] I would still want to see the market showcase lower on on uh yes, I'd want to see this get respected and flip back bullish or bearish
[47:06] S&P 500? Brother, you shouldn't be buying the S&P 500 if you're worried shouldn't even touch it. You shouldn't even care about it.
[49:13] continuation short with good RR. Want to check what the risk is.
[50:31] run through whatever inefficiencies here. We run around higher. Runs back higher. Tapping deeper into the fivem minute. We'll just watch him.
[51:07] Is Justin short? No, he's like a solid 510. I am not 510. I'm sir. 510. I am not 510. I'm sir. was trying to make me looks easy just
[51:21] has been taken this doesn't mean that I'm fully bullish yet I can't be bullish because there's no price action to the left of me for me to base a strong change in the state or a breakup structure off of so if we do want to go
[51:33] these down close candles we're in a fiveminute fair value gap there is still sellside liquidity resting below us I would need to see us respect expect this manipulation to go back lower. I am still leaning more towards the downside.
[51:46] But I need to see confirmation that we want to reject this inefficiency to go hold bullish, we hold bullish and I need I don't want to guess. I need the market to affirm to me what we want to do.
[51:58] value gap and the market wants to go lower, I need to see what possibly internal manipulation and then break of that to go lower.
[52:11] bought back back up straight to the highs, I don't touch it.
[52:33] deep retracement after this low got taken.
[52:48] this, right? Always when in doubt, zoom out. would want to see this become low resistance liquidity. Market opens at FOMC, takes the highs, respects the 1 hour in efficiency, bearish SMT. market
[53:02] low, rebalancing back to the initial five-minute change in the state and the five-minute for gap. We're now back at equilibrium of this previous price range. I would like to see confirmation and internal price action tell me we
[53:15] want to go lower, right? Meaning, what does that look like? We possibly have a rebalance, internal manipulation, break to the downside.
[54:45] see, I'm not taking a trade. That's what keeps me successful long the market. I can do this. I take the market." Take the trade. I'm not market." Take the trade. I'm not stopping you from doing anything.
[55:04] close candle on the 30 second getting respected? I'd like to see more price action on the one minute though. SMT gets put in internally. Pretty zoomed in, but I want to see how the market reacts to it.
[55:27] a displacement through this. I expect to sweep this and then go higher.
[56:07] at least short term. Again, I still am just watching
[56:25] Notice how we do not displace, but we sweep it and immediately go back higher.
[57:32] highs. model's not present. Now, for me to be bearish, I need to see need to get below this down close candle. That's the only way I can be.
[59:20] hold these down close candles. We hold this for rally up.
[59:33] Initial down close candles that we had initially put in on the first break.
[59:47] below the initial down close candle on the 15-minute and it's just again it's super bullish for me to be super bullish. Maybe we come down take this internal low lack displacement and maybe that's maybe that's a clearer a much
[1:00:02] better long for me to possibly take if it validates it. But so far again, I'm it validates it. But so far again, I'm waiting for the market to show me what I
[1:00:44] bunch of bearish order flow coming out of it or do we sweep it?
[1:00:58] Right now it's looking good. pretty bearish.
[1:02:53] honestly a little bit skeptical of this because the internal low had already gotten taken. Much rather just kind of let it do its Much rather just kind of let it do its thing to be honest.
[1:04:36] would kind of want to see for the for the bullish case because we're still the bullish case because we're still holding this inefficiency on NQ.
[1:05:42] We failed to displace through this. Comes up, sweeps the high, stops out. Any traders are initially short. Should start to look.
[1:05:54] price action. Very hesitant to really take anything because it is FOMC. Like, going to be a lot better opportunity. My job right now is just kind of test my eye, see what I think the market's going to
[1:07:45] see a push through this to these next lows.
[1:08:41] contract changes, guys. Basically, if you're looking at NQ on Trading View, at button that says adjust for contract changes. B- ADJ. Make sure that's changes. B- ADJ. Make sure that's checked.
[1:08:59] like holding you back right now, tying you to your chair? is. My goal is to educate you. I don't need to take a trade right now.
[1:09:15] now. It's FOMC. You're you're deciding to put risk on the most volatility and unexpected day of the week of the month.
[1:09:40] conviction. I told you what the market was going to most likely do. I said first of all the first thing I said was at open when when PAL speaks and FOMC opens I want to see us rebound to OT
[1:09:52] reject it and go lower. Then I said once we actually went lower I want to see the market rebalance on ES break a low create a fair value gap and then continue lower towards the external draw which also happened but I don't need to
[1:10:04] take a trade. It's more high it's it's more risk on to put in an unnecessary more risk on to put in an unnecessary environment to put risk on.
[1:10:22] But most of you guys, I would say completely be patient right now, guys. ES go one last time lower to that 66 634 level. Um see if we want to put in a
[1:10:35] low. We'll put in a bigger time frame SMT. So keep in mind when this low gets taken on ES, which it will happen right here. We are going to have a big uh bullish SMT here. So ES is selling off. Low gets taken. Now we have a bigger
[1:10:49] Low gets taken. Now we have a bigger time frame SMT.
[1:11:47] say most of you guys should hop off. Um, I'm my job is I'm going to still probably be here for 30 minutes to an hour. Um, answer some questions kind of while we're watching the market. But now that the objective of of FOMC has been
[1:12:00] taken, I'd most likely expect there to not really might be a reversal later.
[1:13:35] wick and after little retracement then break the low, where is the breakup low, the low that got swept, just hold let me read this again. If the low got wick and after little retracement then breaks the low, where is the breakup
[1:13:50] low or the low that got swept? Not the low that got swept. It's the it's the displacement is validating the breakup structure.
[1:14:11] think you should journal your no trade days 100%.
[1:14:41] losses/ wins that you take. Everyone must learn to hone in on a skill and it, brother. How has this live been? Guys, trust me, I know you guys want to see me take a trade, but my job is also to set an example. And if I don't have
[1:14:57] conviction and like I my job is I'm going to watch FOMC give you guys value, something? Have you benefited from this live? Do you want me to do more of these? Even if I didn't take a trade, there's going to be days where I take a
[1:15:10] don't take a trade. I haven't taken a trade at all this week yet. At all this trade at all this week yet. At all this week, I haven't taken a single one.
[1:15:33] work on uh doing some more lives for you guys. So when the contracts roll over, uh, this will automatically update for it.
[1:15:46] this will automatically update for it. So the chart's not like all wacky,
[1:16:00] what time should I hop on the charts? I would wait for after lunch. So EST time would wait for after lunch. So EST time would be like going to trade if you're going to trade PM
[1:16:27] life appreciate you Justin much love brother I'm glad that it uh I'm glad that it helped yeah if you guys did not know um I just dropped right before this know um I just dropped right before this live, a new psychology video. Um,
[1:16:39] in the mentorship recently. Oh, that's the live is identity. Um, and being able that happen within traders a lot of the that. I think a lot of you guys are going to get a new perspective of a lot
[1:16:54] going to get a new perspective of a lot of things.
[1:17:54] you you can, but obviously AM sessions are always going to be way more high are always going to be way more high probability.
[1:18:06] lower. Again, there's no bigger time frame change yet. Firstly on the one internal buy model. Need to see more confirmation for it.
[1:18:21] reversal if we do want to rebounce back inside this ring.
[1:18:53] and thousands of hours of watching the market. genuinely what it is.
[1:19:29] max trade rule on the day and care more about following that rule than making money. That simple. If you have two trades rules that are max on the day, into the market. But right now, you're not picky because you think that you can
[1:19:43] just sit there and trade all day. Set a max rule, two trades max, and care more about following that rule than making money.
[1:20:01] should absolutely journal. Anytime you have a break even trade, you need to have a break even trade, you need to journal it.
[1:20:14] Trade Path. You can see it at the top of the screen. You can get 25% off at checkout if you use 20 or TT25. It's a trade journal where you can connect your broker to it or you can do it manually. It has AI connected to it. You're able
[1:20:27] rules, make sure you're following it, see your progress over a period of time. Um because journaling is one of the most important parts of trading.
[1:20:41] understand in videos, but to watch it live in action makes it more applicable. Much love, bro. I'm glad it's helping, brother.
[1:20:57] you look at this daily candle and the way that Monday or Tuesday ended up closing, we end up having a big wick close uh below the recent candle high and then end up coming all the way back down to the next candle low.
[1:21:32] Uh, I normally do not look at YM. I just look at ES and NQ. of the times when looking at a third asset, it's going to over you're just
[1:21:48] going to be in analysis paralysis a lot of the time.
[1:22:08] London session probably like we we were we were talking about this last night. I maybe take a London session trade like once every month or two months. Like it's very rare that I will like have conviction in taking something and
[1:23:04] Uh, I just use an indicator. So, there's an indicator called SND profile, and it basically just marks out the sessions for me.
[1:23:25] have a bunch of videos on reading price action already,
[1:23:37] 4hour long free course for you guys to post on YouTube. like literally everything that you could possibly need to know. to know. It's like halfway done right now.
[1:24:00] profitable trader, reading technical analysis, understanding trends, market relate from highs and lows, high quality sessions, what is a change in align them together, understanding and reading what the drawn liquidity is and
[1:24:12] literally everything that you could possibly need.
[1:24:53] then lose four or five times what I win. It goes like I can't. Well, either your risk-to-reward is skewed or you're you're taking a bunch of unnecessary losses and there's actually no setup there. Now, let me ask you, are you
[1:25:05] journaling? Probably not. So, you don't even know what you're taking. So, how know, how do you know what to improve on if you don't even know the trades that you're taking from a week ago? You're going to always fall into the
[1:25:17] You're going to always fall into the same mistakes over and over again.
[1:26:09] Best prop firm, I would say either Apex, Topep, or Tradeify. best rules and Tradeify because they have instant funded, but they're also
[1:26:21] have instant funded, but they're also good.
[1:26:37] don't taking revenge trades and don't care about the money anymore? First of all, I would say go watch the video that I just posted because it goes because I am actually looking for a possible long here. Market is breaking
[1:26:52] having a break to the upside. I want to see us market go back to internal high. I would like to see a pullback to this inefficiency if we can get it.
[1:28:13] If this for Vap opens, I'll take a long if we tap back into it.
[1:28:44] market runs and this high gets taken beforehand. There's no trade.
[1:30:42] probably want to see something like this.
[1:30:56] >> Yeah, I'll be trading Friday. I'll trade tomorrow and Friday.
[1:31:22] rates were cut. The market's going to push toward towards the already existing still have these lows that were left below us. Market moves higher, then goes lower. Once we take sellside now, I would expect the market to go higher.
[1:32:11] validation of a change in the state. This for valley gap getting ran through mean absolutely nothing? Because there's no break to the actual upside yet. Only closed candles can I actually look to take a long. If you are just looking for
[1:32:25] this, then you would have lost when you this inverse for a ver got ran. There's no break yet. There's no there's no I can't there's no long there.
[1:32:37] quick. I was trying to answer a question and so I put a limit on the fair value and so I put a limit on the fair value gap. Didn't pull back. No trade.
[1:33:23] market opens tomorrow and then the next day and then five days a week. You guys need to be able to see the market literally do all of these things that it's doing and you not take a trade. The market will give you more
[1:33:37] completely fine. I try to take a long here. My fill does not get filled. Okay. And you think I'm going to sit here and overtrade going to sit here and overtrade and just try to catch a move.
[1:34:32] trade? Well, ask yourself why do you get demotivated? The majority of it is which you think the work you're putting in. So, you get demotivated when you try money. So, how do you actually create long-lasting success? You start caring
[1:34:47] and developing more with your patience and your discipline to do what you say you are going to do than to make money, which in turn will make you more confident, more happy, and make more money. But you care too much about the
[1:35:00] like you saying, "I want to be a basketball player." But you're not on the on the [ __ ] court throwing three making free throws like practicing. in the NBA and getting paid for for your job than actually learning how to do the
[1:35:14] job than actually learning how to do the job.
[1:35:29] say to the upside? Because I didn't get filled. I tried to have a limit order filled. I tried to have a limit order here. I didn't get filled. body or wick? If it's wick, price returns against to swip Zer
[1:35:47] You'd have to explain better. Manipulation by body or wick.
[1:36:32] Yeah, a swep a sweep with a wick is still a sweep.
[1:36:44] the limit of giving up, thinking that they are not built for this? Anything you could tell them? It took me three years to be profitable. I worked as a at a restaurant as a buser busting tables and a pizza delivery guy
[1:36:58] for literal two years before I even had any sort of success with trading There is no difference between me and you. We are literally the exact same between me and you. I'm not smarter. I'm not more capable. I just stuck with it
[1:37:13] long enough and learned from my mistakes to build the identity in which was going to make me successful. You have to realize you already are successful. And like you're already successful, you're going to start seeing success. Success
[1:37:26] is not some distant thing. It's an embodiment in which you believe you are successful. So you operate at a different level. But if you view break their rules, who continues to fall short, then you're manifesting your own
[1:37:39] identity to be that. Treat yourself like you're already successful and just be it. Learn from your mistakes. Know that right now. You are exactly where you need to be right now. Because guess
[1:37:52] what? The life lessons that you are being taught, you just need to take it know how to improve in my trading? You the market telling you right there, hey bro, you need to fix this. But you have
[1:38:05] the guilt cycle of getting mad at yourself when you keep making mistakes. When in reality, know that it's for you so you can actually improve
[1:38:37] direction and I'm feeling really emotional. How do I handle this feeling? You go on a walk. Don't fall into the guilt cycle. You made a mistake. You are not your mistakes. You are not your identity.
[1:38:49] That's don't don't tie that to your identity. Go on a walk.
[1:39:37] I do, bro? Go look at why you blew the account. Ask yourself why you blew the account. Ask yourself why you blew the account. Go journal.
[1:39:49] day you're going to wake up and start trading profitably. Go look at the mistakes that you're making. Go ask yourself questions. Why did I do that? setup? Hm. Okay. You know, I saw that this was, you know, I thought that this
[1:40:02] up getting stopped out and then went back in my favor. Okay. You know, what did I see here? What did I failed to see here? Oo. Okay. All right. I recognize, early. There was no displacement above it. Okay. I'm going to go in my journal
[1:40:14] and I'm going to write on a post-it note, slap it on my monitor to wait for Okay. I'm going to really focus on that going into the next week. There you go.
[1:40:28] hopping on playing Fortnite with your friends. That's why all these people in not taking a trade? He's a fraud. He's not trading." Because you guys aren't You don't treat this like you're actually this is your actual job. Like
[1:40:41] like you're literally playing a video game.
[1:40:59] chart settings. jacket. So, canvas and then symbol. My bodies are just white. Down candles are the middle gray
[1:41:15] in Trading View and then all the borders are black. do charting sessions every single day in the mentorship and like I said I do I
[1:41:28] seeing right now I do every single day with our with our students with the with our with our students with the group
[1:42:13] the market come back, take this low, and then continue higher.
[1:43:31] Stop will be at that recent low. I want to see new highs.
[1:44:05] looking at. Low gets taken from the initial selloff of SM of FOMC. Low gets taken. That back that to pull back to this breaker. Why? Because internal low already gets taken.
[1:44:21] continue to respect this and hold it, I enter long low at the stop because ES well. I'd like to see this for like get ran through, work our way towards the ran through, work our way towards the external highs.
[1:45:36] today where there was a big move and down and still nice to move up? All has to do with recognizing conditions. In FOMC, you're going to get really really clean most of the time volatility and efficiency. So notice how the market
[1:45:49] today is kind of very fast move, rebalance, fast move, fast move higher. to go take these highs. But on a normal day, like let's say it's a no news Monday and the market ends up selling off 100 points at open to go take the
[1:46:01] opposing liquidity pool. After that opposing liquidity pool gets taken, the after that is the market starts to slow down. We build more price action. That's bit because the conditions are separated from the environment. And that also that
[1:46:15] you need screen time to be able to see that.
[1:48:21] I've done all the work to confirm to myself that it works. I've been trading for a year in the last few months, it comes back.
[1:48:35] is the case, right? Fear of losing, but fear of losing isn't just like fear of losing money. It's fear of losing conviction in yourself. So you have to eradicate the idea of this loss doesn't dictate my trading journey, right? Where
[1:48:47] trade that I'm in right now, it could reverse. It could literally dump and I could get stopped out. This trade win or lose does not dictate me and it does not dictate my trading journey and my trading success as a whole. Now there's
[1:49:01] struggling with execution, trade on a paper account like just I want you to practice just pressing the button. When you are seeing the validation of what you're looking for, press the button. If you see the setup, just focus on
[1:49:14] you see the setup, just focus on practicing pressing the button.
[1:50:36] change for that question of why didn't I enter here. There's no clear swing high swing high where the market goes higher, goes lower, and then breaks through it. There's nothing here for me to really have validation of it.
[1:50:49] Now, I tried to take a long here, but I just never ended up pulling back. So, I wait for the internal sweep to continue the draw.
[1:51:28] internal low and it's actually an imbalance. If the market does want to quote, you know, play, I always say like play games, then we'll come back down, take this, and then again see the same thing.
[1:51:46] would expect to see here. Market either pumps now or we rebalance, take this, and then pump.
[1:52:38] and leave the room? Yeah, put your stop loss and just let it
[1:53:05] There you go. First BT moved to break even.
[1:53:17] had. Justin, why didn't you take shorts? Justin, why don't you take longs? Justin, why don't you take longs? And yet, I still get paid. Not because I'm stressing about trying to take a
[1:53:32] looking for opportunity, being like, "Oh, I need to take this. I need to take this." But waiting for me to personally, this is what I'm telling you. Do not care about what I see think. Do not care about what anybody else thinks. Because
[1:53:46] taken a long. Oh, this guy told me I should have done this." I don't care what anybody thinks. It all comes down to do I have personal conviction? Do you have personal conviction in your trading and in the setup that's in front of you?
[1:54:25] for the low get to get manipulated? Great question. Because this low gets manipulated. My job is not to guess. If this low gets taken and I immediately see this hold, I enter long. Now, does that mean the
[1:54:37] take this low? Yeah. What do you think I do? I give myself two tries. So, if we risk-to-reward, meaning I'm not going to lose that much if we come back down and having this low get taken, I reenter the position.
[1:54:52] validation to take the entry based off of what I'm expecting and what I see in of what I'm expecting and what I see in front of me.
[1:55:41] But there was a buy side SMT. Wouldn't that make entry invalid? Where? that make entry invalid? Where? This high was not taken on ES or NQ.
[1:56:15] market now just like you. But still to go. Much love, brother. Again, I care the forever model. I care about what makes you more money, brother. Love to makes you more money, brother. Love to hear, bro.
[1:56:54] I'll trail this stop more. Why I made two of them? the buys for the day? I would highly recommend everybody after this live
[1:57:10] recommend everybody after this live stream is done, save it and go watch it because I everything that I told you today is exactly what I want you to focus on. Literally, when it comes to how the morning opens, I didn't take a
[1:57:22] played out, my bias was I want the 1 hour to get rejected. Didn't have the opened, I didn't take the trade. Market sells off. We stay patient. We continue lower. I don't take a trade. It's not there for me yet. Go back and
[1:57:37] the outline of the entire day up until this trade. the internal low is resting. When when do we not need to go back to
[1:57:50] equilibrium? Notice we do not go back to equilibrium here. Why do we not go back to equilibrium? Because market is bullish. The draw is higher and we take take internal sell liquidity, the market does not need to go back to equilib.
[1:58:50] minute. Let's see if uh we can hit that last Let's see if uh we can hit that last high or not.
[1:59:04] under this link on the YouTube, there's a link to access and book a call with earlier, my program of what I do, me spending time to teach people is we want to get on a call with you, talk to you. Do you
[1:59:17] are you somebody who just wants like alerts because then we won't take you psychologist who's there to specifically help you. Her name is Sarah. She has a whole entire course curriculum as well. I have entire course everything that you
[1:59:30] day. So what you're seeing right now you get four times a week. Um what else was I going to say? Oh and we also have data analysis. So like you get journal. We want you to track your trades.
[1:59:46] rights and wrongs and knowing rights and wrongs and knowing identifying what that is.
[2:00:16] this live. Go to learn from me. Click this. Go to click here to join. Fill out this type form. Fill out this form. On this page,
[2:00:28] testimonials from previous students that we currently have as well. you know it's a reversal and not a fake out displacement?
[2:00:43] Understanding if the is there an external draw? If if there's an external draw and for example, I want the market to go lower, then when buy side gets taken, I'm expecting a sweep. Now, I don't necessarily take that for what it
[2:00:55] is. I need to see the market validate it to me by sweeping that high and then rejecting back lower because if the draw liquidity is lower, then I need I would displace through that high, then there's just no trade.
[2:01:21] Is there still a valid entry? No, I would not touch anything right now.
[2:02:51] things when we're at a high. Stop at break even on the last column. Market's going to do one of two things. Either do this
[2:03:07] We either sweep it, which means we take the high and then fall back down, or we the high and then fall back down, or we displace through it. Displacement sweep
[2:03:37] affect your trading like discipline-wise or trading psychology is different? Psychology in general 100%. Yeah, the outside events that happen in your life can 100%. If your mom just died of cancer, you probably shouldn't trade.
[2:03:52] and you're emotional, you probably shouldn't trade.
[2:04:21] does it affect you? Why would it affect me? Why do I care? Why do you care? Why do you care if I make money? Like, why do you care?
[2:04:33] There's literally no reason to because all you're doing is comparing yourself. grateful for the progress that you've made and the path that you're on.
[2:05:26] tick here on that low before going higher. to see price go lower. There is no trades though after this in line gets taken. Do not touch it. Let the market do it thing.
[2:05:43] You'll be able to go to the live section of of my YouTube channel and be able to of of my YouTube channel and be able to go rewatch this
[2:06:20] mentorship? So, it kind of starts on a Friday, and I'll tell you why. On Friday, at the end of the week, every student is given a form to fill out. In that form, you must fill out exactly what you did that week. How many trades
[2:06:33] What did you feel like you did right and your wrong? Rate your confidence from 1 to 10. Rate your patience from 1 to 10. We rate your discipline from one 1 to you did, how you feel about it, what you think you did right, what you think you
[2:06:45] did wrong. And that's number one. On Sunday, we will do a coaching call where we go over all of the data for everybody for that previous week. So, what's the everybody's data and we say these are the top five people from last week.
[2:07:00] Let's see what they did right. These are week. What is the main problem? And that main problem is going to be their focus Monday, we come in. Monday morning, we live trade. We create a plan for the
[2:07:13] together. Monday night, we do a charting session and a group coaching call. So, we'll go over any trades that we took in the morning. We'll hop on live. Anybody questions. Basically, show me their trades. I'll look through all of
[2:07:25] everybody's getting the plan, and then we'll create a plan for the next day. where people will come on, talk to each other, um, ask me questions one on like one-on-one directly to me. Um, and then we'll plan for the next day. Tuesday,
[2:07:39] we'll also go live trading. Same thing on Tuesday night. Wednesday, we'll live trade. Wednesday night, Sarah, who's our professional psychologist, she does a session with the mentorship students, basically going over and let me actually
[2:07:52] talking about tonight. Let me go check. Um, tonight she is covering um obsession of making money and how it kills your trading. So, she's going over how to get over the obsession of making money and why it kills your trading. And
[2:08:07] Friday, live trading and then we send out the form and during the week as which are there literally to check in on traders and make sure that they're doing and they're journaling and everything and we keep them accountable.
[2:08:32] that are in Europe that are a part of it.
[2:09:19] knowing more about it, go to the link in the description. Literally the top link that says learn from me. Go down, fill out the type form, book a call. And the you can't just buy this is because, excuse me,
[2:09:35] I'm not going to waste my time. Like there's a lot of people even in this taking anything? Is this here? Is this here? Like people that actually want to their situation, that are struggling, that know that they need help, that are
[2:09:49] willing to put in the work. We will get on a call with you, talk to you, and ask Basically saying, "How long have you traded for? What do you think your you think you need to be successful?" and ask you these questions so we can
[2:10:04] better understand you as an individual and how we can better suit you.
[2:10:16] we also have payment plan. You could split it up between like two or two 3 split it up between like two or two 3 months.
[2:10:40] draw liquidity? Does it make sense for that SMT to even be there? It needs to have logic behind it. An SMT doesn't mean anything if there's no logic.
[2:10:52] Because it doesn't make sense for this to hold. Why? Because sellside's been bullish in efficiency. There's way more generated buyside liquidity. And we have a break of structure. This S& doesn't mean anything.
[2:11:22] How long does the mentor trip last? It's six months
[2:11:36] here. I will put this link in the chat and then I'll
[2:12:09] can use in Mexico? I'm not sure. I think you could probably ask chat GBT and it you could probably ask chat GBT and it and it would tell you. Not sure though.
[2:12:25] split it up into four four four months. I think we I think we can we we've done I think we I think we can we we've done that before. This is your time to hop off. I'll probably stay on for like 15 more
[2:12:40] minutes, answer some more questions, and then uh we'll call it a day.
[2:12:52] brother. I appreciate you, bro. So funny. Cuz I've traded them over a hundred times.
[2:13:13] much. I love to hear it, bro. Mike, you're killing it, bro. Keep it up, bro. I just said bro three times. That was a filler word. Oh my.
[2:13:27] traders and beginners? What is it? Segregation. No, beginners a lot of times are still struggling with the same things as struggling with the same things as advanced people.
[2:13:50] and checklist. So, a toz. Yeah, it's 60 videos. I It's a 60 video course curriculum A to Z. Everything made by me.
[2:14:12] students? Like clashed in what way? Not really. Not at all. I think we like bro I'm very very blessed for my student like and and the it is is because everybody in our mentorship wants to work like they want
[2:14:27] to work hard and they're motivated so like when we get on calls together we have great discussions and like it's a great time it's a blast like I love what I do I love talking to everybody I love helping people I love serving like I
[2:14:40] love growing as an individual in the process of it as well we have an amazing
[2:16:06] cool place. I would have never thought like I would ever be in Serbia. Um, but it's a it's an interesting place for sure. I enjoyed it.
[2:16:34] first of all, that's illegal. We can't do that. So, don't even I mean, we would literally be sued.
[2:17:17] One thing that like you guys will get to know more about me is that's just not other traders in the space. Like I would much rather spend money building Trade Path and the the products that we're building and then like try to I I
[2:17:32] we're building and then like try to I I bought I spent 200 grand on a car like a year ago and I sold it a year later because it's like it just didn't give me it it brings short-term satisfaction, but materialism
[2:17:44] will never make you happy. Materialism will never satisfy you.
[2:18:08] probably going to hop off in like 10 minutes. many questions and help in as possible. Like So guys, we got 10 minutes left. If you. I'm here to get give you any advice that I could possibly give. Um so feel
[2:18:23] free to ask again any any more questions you guys have. trust for three minute or five minute and how to see it as valid change in the state? All comes down to displacement, right? When we look at this move today
[2:18:38] and we look at this change in the state, some people are going to mark this one minute as a change in the state and end up getting and end up getting ran through. Why is this not valid? Because when I zoom out, nothing else is
[2:18:50] validating this and it's not a swing high. It needs to be a swing high. meaning it is a clearly defined high. So for example, right, the difference of this is this market is coming down, market is coming down, market's coming
[2:19:02] down, market's coming down, and then you're looking at this as a change in the state. It's not. There's no clearly defined swing high. Now, when we do this and then we break it, there is a clearly defined swing high that we actually
[2:19:14] broke. That is what I want to see. So if that's not clear, I'm going to zoom out and see, okay, well, what does make I can see this is a clearly defined swing high that marks as a breaker
[2:19:27] and I want to see this now get displaced through to look for longs.
[2:19:42] trading early on? Yes. Like for my first like year probably. Yeah. But my parents were very still supportive, but like they knew I was losing money. Like they just want the best for me.
[2:20:01] no longer looking for entries after 9:30 until 11:00. Majority of the time, yeah. So, I'll trade 9:30 to 11:00 in the morning. 11 o'clock and I don't look at anything the rest of the day. But like for
[2:20:15] example today like FOMC is a rare occasion where I skip out on the AM session and I trade PM session instead for FOMC.
[2:20:42] How much did you lose before you became profitable? 40 50 grand.
[2:21:06] Tactical Traders about quitting weed after years of daily use. I want to had no connection with any higher power. You are the man. Thank you. That makes I love to hear that, bro. God bless, Ethan. Appreciate that, bro.
[2:21:21] God bless, Ethan. Appreciate that, bro. Was I took one trade today. I'll just keep the executions on so you guys can see
[2:21:33] even or not at break even. It got stopped in profit how to not get overconfident on a winning streak.
[2:21:48] going to end up taking a loss. So, we're almost like trying to anticipate that almost like trying to anticipate that loss. Um, and I think the more that you you'll kind of over overcome it where
[2:22:00] okay, I'm on a winning streak. I know a loss is coming, but you just like don't clean every morning, right? Every morning you come into the market, streaks are non-existent. Like, you're not on a streak. Today's a new day.
[2:22:13] not on a streak. Today's a new day. Nothing has happened ever before. year. Just passed another funded with 400 on the day. All up to you, bro.
[2:22:30] 400 on the day. All up to you, bro. Let's go, bro. Say congrats, bro. Let's go, bro. Say congrats, bro. Justin, your YouTube videos are all are I always tell people to check you out. Appreciate it, bro. Not that they help.
[2:22:43] How do you deal with outside pressure like just graduating college, but I want like just graduating college, but I want to make this work so bad? Don't stress out and know that an analogy that I used in that recent
[2:22:58] psychology video is that you have all of these goals, but you're not yet the person to accomplish them. And I really want you to think about that. Like many of us have big goals, but we're not yet the person to accomplish those goals.
[2:23:11] And the only way to become the person to accomplish those goals is by being under situations so that the sword is sharpened in the fire. You have to be shoulders have to broaden to be put in certain situations to manage them and
[2:23:26] have composure during during them. And know that you just need to become the not that those goals are you know not realistic. It's just you are in the process of becoming the person to be able to accomplish them.
[2:24:07] around? They're correlating assets. They don't follow each other. They follow specific things within the same market. So, they're correlating assets. It's not one will pull the other, right? That's where you need to have screen time to
[2:24:19] strength and weakness between the correlated assets. There's times in there's times in which the market will not be correlated. Those disorrelation not be correlated. Those disorrelation periods of time are hints at what the
[2:24:32] market wants to do. That's why an SMT is created. An SMT is created is from a moment of disorrelation where NQ or ES takes an existing high, NQ does not, and it now gives us a hint as what price wants to do afterwards. So there's times
[2:24:46] with it. There's times in which ES will be bullish and pull NQ with it. There's disrelation and they're both doing the exact same thing. Comes with time to be exact same thing. Comes with time to be able to recognize them.
[2:25:10] made me profitable. It was your encouragement to dive into deep with your goals. I appreciate it, bro. That that truly is what needs to change. And that's what like our main focus is within our mentorship group is every
[2:25:24] single day my job is to push my students and the people within my circle to be as as as long as I'm continuing to push my best my version of myself to be the best version of myself. True growth and true success comes not just with same
[2:25:39] mistakes, learning and improving as an individual and focusing on asking why do I really want to make this happen? What is this even for? Why did I asking yourself, you know, what you're really truly wanting to get out of life
[2:25:53] and having a deeper experience within life in your own journey of success with life in your own journey of success with trading, with business, with everything. people are on autopilot during the day throughout their life.
[2:26:33] guys learned something in this session. I think if you go back and watch this, understanding of the process of today and the entire session of the patience leading up to the trade that I ended up taking um and the analysis of what I was
[2:26:48] looking for within the market. But I plan to probably do these live sessions maybe once or twice a month. I do live trade, like I said, every day within the mentorship. So, my job is I'm putting all of my students first. Unfortunately,
[2:27:00] know, some lives on YouTubes here and there. But my job is I also will continuously post YouTube videos. Um, I go watch the video that I just posted today um on psychology. It's a really, really good video. I think you guys are
[2:27:14] of it. But I'll keep getting you guys some videos out. And uh again, like I and you want to join our amazing community, get the accountability, get the help that you need, have access to me, I will put this link in the the chat
[2:27:28] once again. for you guys to end up booking a call with our team. Um, this is again not anything other than us just wanting to know more about your trading. wanting to know more about your trading. Um, find this link
[2:27:47] looking for as well. So, enjoy the rest of your day. Be safe. Be productive. Go take time. Go journal. Go journal your trades even if you didn't take a trade today. and I will talk to you guys later. Peace out, guys.
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