Why Most Traders Lose (Entry Confirmation Guide)

[00:01] trading, I was making the same mistake that destroys most traders accounts. I would immediately jump in. It didn't even matter if I had an idea of what the market even wanted to do. I was so focused on not missing the move that I

[00:13] kept taking trades based off of incomplete information. And it cost me started trading. Then I learned something that changed everything for me. One simple rule that transformed my win rate and finally made me

[00:25] the market until I see how the market actually represents itself, not what I think that it's going to be. This isn't just about waiting for structure. This is a shift from trying to predict the future to observing what's actually

[00:38] difference, your trading will never be the same. So, in this video, I'm breaking down what I wait for before every single trade that I take and why this observer approach is a part of your edge and how you can start implementing

[00:50] this immediately. So, let me give an example of what I think many of you are I'm right or wrong, and I'll give you a couple examples. So, number one, right, take a trade. What I'm looking for to take a trade is sellside liquidity

[01:02] swept. And I want to target the opposing liquidity pool. So, in this example, most likely going to go take sellside at this point. I'm like, oo, a long might possibly a reason we're going to go take buy side afterward, right? There's maybe

[01:14] a bigger time frame for value gap right below us. Now, the problem that happens is is this low gets taken. Market comes back up and you're like, "Oh my gosh, your position. You put your stop at the low and then the market does this. Stops

[01:27] ready yet. All right, I got stopped out." And then the market maybe does back up. Oh my gosh, I'm going to take a long. Put your stop in play. And then maybe the market does something like this. Then what happens is the market

[01:40] does this and then ends up going. How do we read this? First of all, you might be called me out." And that's the whole point is to show you like, "I used to do tell you how you can get around this. This is a main problem of of a couple

[01:53] things. Number one, the mindset in which we're in. Our mindset is I'm expecting the market to bounce and I'm afraid to miss out and get a bad fill, so I'm just going to enter the position without actually the confirmation. And if you

[02:06] think that there is confirmation, you're actually too zoomed in and you're not reacting to what the specific model is. So what I mean by this is pay attention when I say this. This that we're looking at currently right now is a market maker

[02:20] curve and we have buy side of the curve. Now in relationship to this model, meaning these highs as the draw and liquidity, I need to see a market or a change in the state of delivery, right? all the same thing to validate

[02:35] So, let's look through these first couple examples here. People are going here's my change in the state of delivery. I'm going to take a long." Now, could this end up playing out? Sure, maybe. But it's not in

[02:49] relationship to this model. What is it in relationship to? Let me explain this. The market will do this. we will generate liquidity to then go lower to lower then break structure then go take whatever that buyside is right so if we

[03:05] break of structure needs to be in correlation to whatever the highs is in which we're generating if there's buy side liquidity up here this change in it this change in the state validates

[03:18] price to go to this buy side this buy side when displaced through becomes the bigger time frame change to validate the bigger time frame draw so What happens here? You're taking the intraday change in the state that validates the internal

[03:31] move that's not validating the external one. So you're hoping that the market is going to go through it to then validate the external draw when in reality a lot fail because there's the draw and the order flow is very bearish, right?

[03:44] pretty much without the validation of it. Or the market will do this where we sitting there hoping that the market then actually displaces to get a change or we'll take this then come back down then build price action generate

[03:59] liquidity and then have an actual move, right? And what that looks like is this. We generate internal buy side to then actually have the low get taken and then actually displace through the highs that are created. So, there's a couple things

[04:12] that I want you to look for when having a high probability reversal. And a lot what time frame do I need to be looking at? What time frame? And a lot of people will kind of simplify it and and I don't I don't think this is bad, but if you

[04:27] recognizing price action, time frame alignment isn't as important as what you 30 minute draw, you have to take the trade on the five minute. If this is a 15-minute, then you should do it on a one minute, right? I don't believe in

[04:41] and then you look at this and then this and you look at this because guess what? to be the exact same thing no matter what time frame you're looking at it. at it in a different perspective. It's a magnifying glass. What you need to be

[04:56] able to identify is displacement. Displacement is the most important thing stopped out early, why you're taking trades early is because you're too without waiting for displacement. that's actually in correlation with the model

[05:12] you are taking. If this is buy side liquidity, I need to see these highs get ran and displaced through to validate this as a move higher. Then I can look at the higher time frames and I can look at the time frames to see where the

[05:26] maybe on one time frame this is the change in the state. Maybe on another state. But when it's an actual change in the state and the market is actually validating that that's what the move is, it will displace. What does displacement

[05:39] create? Right? Displacement equals fair value gap. Because when a fair value gap is formed, it is an inefficiency. Meaning the market expanded, left room where we did not rebalance to then most likely go rebalance back to. Right? So

[05:51] market, you'll see a fair value gap open up. So what are the time most likely happens here? We open up a bullish fair value gap that then gets rebalanced into to then continue back higher. That is where we want to be be looking to take

[06:05] our entries, right? We do not want to be trying to snipe the bottom, trying to play our idea, so to speak, instead of playing what the market is showing us, right? Wait for the market to actually validate what the market wants to do.

[06:17] Because here, you're you're taking two losses, three losses, and then by the itself, you don't even have conviction or confidence to actually enter the of what this might look like and show you from today when price ended up

[06:31] actually moving and then versus how many times you might have possibly taken an bigger time frame going into this morning, I was bearish. We ended up having sellside liquidity here, sellside liquidity here. And yesterday, we had a

[06:44] big move lower from this yesterday morning. When we sell off this much, I'm lows from from what we've been having. So when we zoom in this morning and I can say, okay, well, what's going on here, right? If I'm bearish, what do I

[06:57] price take some sort of internal high. I want to see us generate liquidity in the these lows that we're putting in in the morning. I want to see us go to this 15-minute show rejection. I want to take a short lower. So if I have that idea,

[07:10] this what might be your thought or like looking at this from a false immediately come back down. Boom. I enter in short, stop at the high, doss in mind this is pre-market. There's no internal manipulation. There's no

[07:24] confident change in the state. There's no significant swing low that is being displaced through. Right? What does manipulation look like? High taken here. Right? When I look at this on the bigger time frame, there's no swing low

[07:37] here that's getting displaced. What are we doing? We're creating the swing low. right. Boom. High just got taken. Internal change right there. Let's look We're starting to sell back off. Let me take a short. Stop up here. Market's

[07:51] stopping me out again? Let's zoom back out. Is there a change? Are we displacing yet? Oh, now wait. Now there's something here. Internal high gets taken. But now we have a clear swing low, right? Down close candle, up

[08:04] close candles. If we displace through this, that is what I'm looking for to starting to do it. We're starting to do it, but we're not really getting displacement. There we go. So, why is this the timing? What ends up happening

[08:18] here? We generate internal buy side. The market ends up coming up. ES ends up taking this high on NQ. So we have an SMT and we respect this wick. Then we finally end up closing and displacing below this change in the state. Now

[08:31] understand is the market will most of the time accumulate before distribution, right? We'll accumulate manipulation distribution where we accumulate have one last move higher where we expect our manipulation leg. That's why ES ends up

[08:44] If we look at ES at this point in time as well, you can see ES has our we take the high. So when I zoom in and I draw this out clearly, you can see accumulation, manipulation, and then distribution to the downside, right? So

[08:59] the high, NQ doesn't, we end up putting in a bearish SMT. This is where I'm looking to take my short, put my stop, and I target sellside liquidity. Market rebalance back higher to do what? take internal set liquidity which again is

[09:15] zoom in, you can see we end up breaking higher, taking that high, displacing through the swing low. This is another short entry to take at open and the take sell side liquidity. So, there's a couple things that I want you to pay

[09:29] that this might be your problem or it might not be, but even if it's not your problem, this is what I want you to pay attention to. Ask yourself, am I viewing the market in terms of what I want to see in or what is the market actually

[09:41] showing me? Right? when we're very antsy and we want to take a trade and we if you're confident about your draw and liquidity and that's why a lot of people you know, I find myself being right all the time. I have the right bias, but I

[09:54] the trade." And the reason in which that is happening is because you're more focused on the idea versus how price action is actually showing you the idea. Because price action is not going to be exactly 100% to what you in your brain

[10:07] is thinking. You have to learn to recognize how it's showing you, right? market is showing you. Wait for manipulation. Number one, wait for clear for is fair value gaps that get ran through. Notice this entire move, this

[10:23] to this for value gap and starting to consolidate. Only here do we run the have manipulation and then we use it as an inverse for value gap. So at that that we can look for. We want to recognize order flow. And I'm not

[10:37] sales. I'm talking about order flow in relationship to price action. Fair value gaps get ran through. Notice we continue to hold this bigger time frame 14 or 15 five minute or the 15 minute to the downside. So the more that we can start

[10:51] to align and recognize does the market want to go higher and what would the Right? For example, if the market wants to go higher here, what do I think we would do? Well, what we would do is we would probably sweep these lows and we

[11:04] would hold this bullish for gap, right? But we don't. we displace through the down close candles and we show a change in order flow. That's why it's called a point in time, the market has now validated it. We want to look for a

[11:18] to understand. The difference between traders who make it and the ones that don't isn't technical knowledge. It's not about a secret setup or a secret discipline to wait for the complete information, all of the information

[11:31] before making a decision. Every time you feel that urge to jump into something fearful of maybe missing out, remember you're about to make a decision based off of the unfinished story. The analogy I use is like a Pictionary game where

[11:44] imagine you only get one guess and I start to draw and I start to draw, but you care so much about being right in first that you yell out your answer when And then when I actually finish drawing it, you're easily able to identify it

[11:57] identify it. This shift in mindset from predictor to observer will transform your trading more than any indicator or strategy. So go practice this. I want you to go look at the recent trades in which you've been stopped out on. If you

[12:11] to go look at your trades, I'll leave a link in the description to go get a journaling your trades as well and start noticing how much clearer if you go back and look the setups that ended up forming if you got stopped too early and

[12:25] when you enter early versus you wait for the clarity. Don't try to guess what's be more opportunity. I know you want a bottom tick. I know you want to enter a trade." There's always opportunity. You don't need to rush it. Wait for the

[12:37] market to give you the clear picture. If you do also want personal help with your single month into my mentorship where I coach them, live trade with them. I give need. I have a professional psychologist on my team that also is there to help

[12:51] one-on-one and help coaching with me, I will leave a link in the description Remember, the market rewards patience, not speed. You're paid for your being an observer instead of a predictor. I guarantee you, you will be

[13:05] way more successful. I'll see you guys in the next one. He's up.