AI Summary
The video shares a blackjack card counting tip about expected value (EV). The host recounts a vacation session where he outperformed his EV by over 4x in half an hour and decided to quit while ahead, emphasizing the importance of knowing your EV and leaving when you're way ahead.
Chapters
The host introduces a tip about expected value (EV) that he hasn't heard others discuss, based on a recent vacation trip.
He bought in for $100 in red chips ($5 each), using a tight bet spread and back counting to play only positive true counts.
His strategy was expected to yield about $24 per hour, as shown on screen.
After 30 minutes, he was up $30 due to positive variance, with the count at zero and betting minimum $10.
He got a blackjack, winning $15, and the count remained at zero. He then tracked the count to raise bets when true count hit +1.
With a true count of +1, he bet $15, split sevens twice, and doubled on a soft 18, winning $60 total as the dealer busted.
Up $105 after 30 minutes (over 4x his hourly EV), he decided to quit, as the count turned negative and other tables were closing.
The tip is to know your expected value and consider quitting when you're way ahead, especially if it's hard to stomach losses, or switch tables to play only positive counts.
The key takeaway is to always be aware of your expected value per hour and consider quitting when you've significantly outperformed it, as this can help lock in profits and reduce emotional stress.
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Mentioned in this Video
Tutorial Checklist
Study Flashcards (7)
What was the expected value per hour for the host's strategy in this session?
easy
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What was the expected value per hour for the host's strategy in this session?
About $24 per hour.
01:09
How much did the host buy in for?
easy
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How much did the host buy in for?
$100 in red chips.
00:14
What was the host's bet spread?
medium
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What was the host's bet spread?
Minimum $10, raising to $15 at true count +1.
04:14
How much did the host win on the hand where he split sevens and doubled?
medium
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How much did the host win on the hand where he split sevens and doubled?
$60.
05:27
What was the host's total profit after 30 minutes?
easy
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What was the host's total profit after 30 minutes?
$105.
05:55
Why did the host decide to quit?
medium
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Why did the host decide to quit?
He was up over 4x his hourly EV, the count turned negative, and other tables were closing.
06:40
What is the main tip the host gives?
easy
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What is the main tip the host gives?
Know your expected value and consider quitting when you're way ahead.
07:06
💡 Key Takeaways
EV Calculation
Provides a concrete expected value ($24/hr) that anchors the entire tip.
01:09Outperforming EV
Demonstrates winning over 4x the hourly EV in half an hour, making the tip actionable.
05:55The Core Tip
Directly states the key advice: know your EV and leave when ahead.
07:06Full Transcript
[00:01] talk a little bit about EV and a tip that I've never really heard anyone talk when I was on vacation I want to tell you a little bit of story but first off this is A1 Blackjack Channel we teach you how to count cards fast so if that
[00:14] like I said we're going to get into a little tip today about expected value and I was recently on a trip um where there was a little town that had a bunch play a little bit to get a little practice in however I didn't have my
[00:28] a little bit of red chipping which uh normally I'm kind of a green chip guy but that's um that's just me and it's not nothing wrong with red chipping but tell you a little story here so I bought it for $100 and of course the dealer
[00:42] it for $100 and of course the dealer gave me um 20 Reds which is $100 and they slid it over to me dropped this in the Dropbox and I want to tell was using I'll flash up on the screen here and you can see that I'm not
[00:56] again I don't have my whole bank roll with me so I want to be kind of careful with me so I want to be kind of careful and um choosy with the uh certain true counts that I play and what I did is I was kind of jumping in at a true one and
[01:09] then I would play back to zero or if the count called for it I would also you know of course play those higher true counts with the particular bet spread that I was using all right this was um expected to get me about $24 an hour as
[01:23] you can see there in the bottom of the screen and so after the dealer gave me know about you but I like to to make these in piles where I know exactly how like to keep them in piles of five where I know if this is uh four piles there I
[01:38] have my $100 and I haven't won or lost anything yet all right and so I was starting to play and I would say that I was um playing for oh maybe 30 minutes at this point um either walking behind back counting at tables after the
[01:53] shuffle or um jumping in a little bit and playing and um this particular table the count uh was finally high enough I jumped in and it actually had dropped back down to zero with three Decks that had been played and three decks left to
[02:07] had been played and three decks left to be played at this six deck shoe okay also I got to say the penetration wasn't very good at all it was um little bit more than I would normally play with about 1.4 or so and I think the uh I
[02:22] earlier I accounted for that as well but anyway uh I had a little bit of positive variance and by this time I was $30 right so I think it was minimum of $10 bets and I had won three of them maybe
[02:35] one or lost a few in there but anyway I could tell because the way I keep my could tell because the way I keep my chips that I was up um $30 all right happened all right so there was one other guy at the table we'll give him a
[02:49] other guy at the table we'll give him a few Reds also and remember that the count is at zero at this point and so I am betting my minimum of $10 and and I again I'm going to get out there cuz I'm not playing through those negative
[03:04] counts so thinking this might be my last hand at this table before I try a different one he also has $10 out there all right and so these were the cards blackjack right I was pretty excited about that dealer of course pays that
[03:18] out first so I won $15 more importantly though what's the count well it's still at zero right these two and these two will cancel each other out plus two and minus two dealer's going to my cards away all
[03:31] right I'm going to pull my bets back and I can tell now I am up 2535 $45 all I can tell now I am up 2535 $45 all right so I am up just a little bit more what's going to happen here counts at zero now it's at one and he's going to
[03:47] zero now it's at one and he's going to stand still at one dealer it's at two stand still at one dealer it's at two three four one more and back to three which means we have a true Count of one all right finally this is what I've been
[03:59] waiting for to raise my bets a little bit and let's see he busted so he gets some money I guess there we go he's just playing $10 the whole time all right so I have a running three which means um a true one so I'm going to be betting $15
[04:14] again a pretty tight bet spread from me but this was the next hand now check out all right so first off what's our counts it was at three now it's at 2 one still one and back to two all right so we have a
[04:31] two and regardless of the count I need to split my sevens this guy of course is going to stand so I'm going to split sevens so counts still at two on the first seven I got 17 count dropped to one on the second
[04:46] seven I got another seven so we're going to split those again all right another to split those again all right another $15 out there count still at one now it's at zero soft 18 versus dealers 5 is going to double down so I'm doubling
[04:59] this just taking one card all right I get 17 again so uh it's going to drop get 17 again so uh it's going to drop that countdown to negative one this uh last one here I get another 17 now it's at -2 and let's see if the dealer can
[05:14] at -2 and let's see if the dealer can hopefully bust -23 and still neg3 and they do bust all right so I ended up winning quite the chips amount of chips here let's see here that's going to be I
[05:27] think $60 right 15 * 1 2 3 4 is right 15 * 1 2 3 4 is 60 and at this point the count is at -3 60 and at this point the count is at -3 and I am piling my chips up in the piles
[05:41] of five cuz that's how I keep them and I'm telling the Dr said wait wait just a from today kind of comes in all right so this is my pile that I have behind uh my bedding Circle it looks like this remember I bought it originally for $100
[05:55] about 30 minutes ago and I'm currently up $105 so the tip to you is this if you are playing and you realize that in the expected value for this whole hour of play is $24 now obviously we can win and
[06:12] we can lose way more or way less but I'm on vacation I don't have my whole bankroll with me um it's past midnight at this point the other tables are starting to close um this like I said it's real small town it's uh nothing too
[06:25] fancy I think there's one other table that had four or five guys at it and I trying to get up at that table because the count is negative if I were just to sit out a few hands I suppose I could do that but I also thought that you know
[06:40] what I outperformed my expected value by over four times the amount that I should have in this not just full hour of play but half hour of play so I quit right I quit I decided I'm going to go back to my family at this point enjoy the rest
[06:54] of my vacation I think we were leaving the next day and I left way ahead now the tip to you is realize what your expected value is and if you're at if
[07:06] you maybe it's hard for you to stomach some of the wins and losses um leave when you're kind of like way ahead all right if that makes you feel better about yourself all right or at least maybe stop playing this table maybe you
[07:18] there's more tables open go back count another table like that and uh maybe you can just play those positive counts so that you are way more likely to win um like I was doing in this situation all right so before you go today do a couple
[07:32] button down below and two I've been talking about back counting during a lot of this and if you want to know what that is check out this video right here Tuesday video [Music]