The 4-Step Formula to Never Guess Reversals
52sPromises a concrete, repeatable strategy for a common trading problem, with a bold claim about Bitcoin returns that hooks viewers.
▶ Play Clip"The title promises a definitive method to find reversals, and the video delivers a structured 4-step formula, but the withheld 'secret tool' and promotional segments dilute the value."
This video presents a four-step formula for identifying market reversal points in cryptocurrency trading, using on-chain data tools and a 200-day EMA. The strategy is based on the principle of contrarian investing, as exemplified by Warren Buffett's quote, and claims to have generated a 18,202% return on Bitcoin over the past decade.
The video opens with a montage and introduces the concept of market reversals, contrasting it with the common pitfall of 'catching a falling knife' by buying too early.
The creator claims that using this formula on Bitcoin over the past 10 years would have yielded a return of 18,202%, turning a $10,000 investment into $1.8 million.
The first step involves using a site with real-time crypto data to view the 'Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss' chart. This chart shows green (opportunity) and red (overheat) zones, indicating when most traders are at a loss or profit, respectively.
The second tool, 'Supply in Profit/Loss', shows the percentage of the current supply in profit. The rule is to buy when 50% or less of traders are in profit and sell when the number approaches 100%.
The third step uses the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart, which tracks long-term and short-term holders. A buy signal occurs when both the red (long-term) and orange (short-term) lines fall below the zero line.
The final step is to add a 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to the trading chart. A price touch or dip below this line is considered a good buying opportunity.
The creator reiterates the backtested return of 18,202% and mentions a 'secret tool' that is the 'backbone' of the strategy, which he offers to newsletter subscribers.
The video outlines a systematic, data-driven approach to finding market reversals, emphasizing patience and contrarian sentiment. While the strategy is presented as highly profitable, the creator withholds a key component, directing viewers to his newsletter for the full method.
What is the first step in the 4-step formula for finding reversals?
Go to a site with real-time crypto data and click on 'Unrealized Profit/Loss' and then 'Relative Unrealized Profit'.
01:21
What does the green box on the Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss chart indicate?
It indicates that the majority of traders (including miners) are at a loss.
01:58
What is the rule for buying using the 'Supply in Profit/Loss' tool?
Buy when 50% or less of traders are in profit.
04:43
What is the rule for selling using the 'Supply in Profit/Loss' tool?
Sell when the number of traders in profit is getting closer to 100%.
05:02
What is the buy signal on the NUPL chart?
When both the red (long-term) and orange (short-term) lines go beneath the zero line.
05:46
What is the final step in the strategy?
Add a 200-day EMA to your chart and buy when price touches or goes beneath it.
06:04
What was the claimed backtested return on Bitcoin over 10 years?
18,202%.
07:10
Contrarian Investing Principle
The strategy is grounded in Warren Buffett's famous quote, providing a philosophical foundation for the technical approach.
01:07Opportunity and Overheat Zones
The Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss chart visually defines extreme market sentiment, offering clear entry and exit points.
01:58Quantitative Buy/Sell Rules
The 'Supply in Profit/Loss' tool provides specific numerical thresholds (50% buy, 100% sell) that remove guesswork.
04:43Backtested Performance Claim
The 18,202% return figure is a powerful, albeit unverified, testament to the strategy's potential.
07:10[00:00] Pour your morning cup of joe. Pack your suitcase. You order an uber. Head to the airport. Run to the terminal. Fly to Nebraska. What s in Nebraska? Nothing.
[00:13] start your computer. Open your trading chart. And now you are ready to trade. Now you be asking. Why did we fly to Nebraska? I have no idea. I just wanted to make one of those
[00:25] cool traveling montages. The reversal. One of those topics you always hear about. But whenever you try it yourself, It seems you like you always buy to early and the price continues to drop.
[00:37] Leaving you with the classic trading expression Trying to catch a falling knife . But what if I told you there was a 4 step formula to finding the perfect points to enter a trade. And you can use tools that have real time data to help you find these points?
[00:52] To make my point even clearer. If you used this same exact data on Bitcoin. In the past 10 years, you would have made %%%%. I know, its crazy.
[01:07] And our strategy follows the one principle that legendary trader warren buffet said Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful . Which this quote is the absolute pinnacle of the reversal.
[01:21] The four step formula goes something like this. First you re going to go on a site site using real time crypto data. The first step of the 4 step formula and click unrealized profit/loss . Next, click relative unrealized profit .
[01:40] You are going to have these colored zones on your chart. One on the top and one on the bottom. This is whats called the opportunity zone. Now this chart is unrealized profits. So the green box is 0. Which means if price evers come into this green box. That means the majority of traders
[01:58] currently in the market are at a loss. This is also including miners that are mining bitcoin. The same idea applies to selling. This red box is called the overheat zone . Where most traders are at a net profit. And just look how accurate,
[02:13] this chart has been over time. Price comes to the green zone. It goes up. Comes to the red zone goes down. Price comes the green zone goes up. Goes to the red zone goes down. It repeats this process multiple times. Its also important to take note that,
[02:29] when price is in these zones, its not here for a long period of time. So that s the first step. If you want to find a good some of the best entry points. You want to Now if you re looking to purchase bitcoin or any crypto for that matter,
[02:44] I would 100% recommend apex omni. They have over 20 pairs available to trade and are even planning on having 50 in the next month. You can use up to100% leverage with them, And not only that, but they have high speed execution times so
[03:01] you get in your trades as fast as possible. But the real reason why I love them so much is because you earn points by simply taking trades. You can use these points, to buy mystery boxes which include free crypto, airdrops, an apple vision pro,
[03:16] and their grand prize a fn Lamborghini. Yeah, you can literally win a Lamborghini from a mystery box, simply from just trading on their exchange. Plus if you use my specific link in the description, apex hooked it up and will you a
[03:31] 5% discount when it comes to trading fees. Check them out, they are seriously one of the Step 2. This next tool is also one of my favorites. It s called the supply in profit/loss . Now this tool is kind of like the first one,
[03:46] but it s a little more precise when it comes to describing the data. If you look closely, when I move my cursor through this chart. Some numbers will prop up. It will show the price of bitcoin, but will also show you how much of
[03:59] the current supply is in profit. Now if you know absolutely anything about trading. You should already know, this data is an absolute gem. We can see in real-time, the percentage of the market that is currently trading for a profit.
[04:13] So here, only 41% of traders were trading for a profit. Obviously as price goes down, less traders will be trading for a profit. So as you can see, as we start reaching all time highs, more and more traders are trading
[04:30] for a profit. And the number even gets to 100% of traders reaching a profit. So you can use tool to find great places to not only enter, but exit.
[04:43] My rules for this chart are simple. It s a good idea to look for buy opportunities when 50% or less of traders are in a profit. Now this wont happen very often, but you should still know this just incase it does happen. If goes below 50% it s a very good time to buy.
[05:02] But where I really think this tool comes in handy is when it comes to selling. You want to sell when this number is getting closer to 100%. This will give you great insight when there is fear or greed in the market.
[05:16] Or the nupl chart? It kind of sounds like nipple. I kinda like that better. We ll call it the nipple chart. The red line is the long term holders. And the orange line is both the long
[05:33] term and short term holders. Then again if you look closely. You will see this horizontal black line which is the zero line. If you see both the orange and red line go
[05:46] beneath this zero mark. It s a good time to buy. This will tell you the majority of long term and short term traders are trading for a loss. And again just look how accurate this zero line, price spikes up afterwards. Giving you the perfect reversal point.
[06:04] For the fourth and final step we are going to dive into the actual chart setup. If you don t yet have it, ill leave a link in the description. ema . Click this one right here. Next go to the settings of the
[06:21] ema and change the length to 200. Ill also change the color of this line to orange. reviewed is long term data, we want to represent the same on our chart.
[06:34] If price ever touches or goes beneath this orange line, that means it s a good buying opportunity and you should look to enter a trade. Now don t get me wrong. All of this is
[06:47] going to happen very rarely. Maybe once or twice every 2 years. But just as warrant buffett said, you only need to a few good trades to become a millionaire. exact strategy over the past 10 years. You would have made 18,202%. Which means if you started with
[07:10] just a 10,000, you would have made 1.8 million. Let that sink in and that s without any Now there is one more secret tool I use to completely tie this strategy together.
[07:24] This tool is actually the complete backbone of this strategy. And will Now to be honest, I don t want this info out to the general public. So I m going to be sending this tool to my newsletter subscribers. It s completely free if you
[07:40] want to sign up. So if you re interested. Ill leave a link in the description. Thanks for watching and ill see you guys, next time.
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