AI Summary
In this video, the creator shares the results of a 90-day experiment where they placed over 700 daily fantasy sports (DFS) slips using tools from OddsJam, achieving a 15.02% ROI and $1,800 in profit. They emphasize a shift from emotional betting to a value-based, market-focused approach, and detail the specific strategies and tools used to identify profitable plays.
Chapters
The creator placed over 700 DFS slips over 90 days, achieving a record of 20-15 with a 15.02% ROI. They started with $10 unit size, then increased to $25, and despite variance, ended with $1,800 profit.
Alex Monahan's tweet lists optimal slip types: PrizePicks (5-6 man flex), Underdog (2-man power plays), Better (5-man dynamic), Dabble (3-5 man power plays), DraftKings Pick Six (depends on sport). Two-man slips on PrizePicks are least profitable.
The creator used three-man slips most often, mixing in five and six-man flex plays. Three-man slips offer higher win frequency but lower EV edge compared to larger slips, which have higher variance.
OddsJam's Sharp Money tool, Fantasy Optimizer, and Positive EV tool were used. Sharp Money identifies cross-market EV plays from sharp exchanges; Fantasy Optimizer shows profitable plays based on mathematical edge; Positive EV tool highlights plays with EV edge.
The strategy involves taking the positive EV side of arbitrage bets against sharp bettors on exchanges. Liquidity (dollar sign) indicates confidence; higher liquidity means higher confidence.
Filter by DFS app and minimum data points (3). Compare lines to other sportsbooks; if the DFS app's odds are better than market (e.g., -122 vs FanDuel's -132), it's a profitable play.
Shows plays with EV edge, e.g., Wembanyama under 17.5 rebounds+assists has 4.07% EV edge on DraftKings Pick Six. Overlapping plays across tools indicate high confidence.
Place slips throughout the day as lines change. Volume is key; more slips with edge lead to higher ROI. Casual bettors limit to 1-2 slips, but sharp bettors exploit every edge.
Most people treat DFS as entertainment, but sharp bettors treat it as a market. Success comes from discipline, volume, bankroll management, and a process centered on finding value, not predicting perfectly.
The video concludes that consistent profitability in DFS comes from treating it as a market to exploit, using data-driven tools to find value, and maintaining discipline and volume. The creator encourages viewers to adopt a sharp bettor mindset to achieve long-term success.
Mentioned in this Video
Tutorial Checklist
Study Flashcards (9)
What was the creator's ROI over 90 days of DFS betting?
easy
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What was the creator's ROI over 90 days of DFS betting?
15.02%
01:15
Which slip type is optimal on PrizePicks?
easy
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Which slip type is optimal on PrizePicks?
Five and six-man flex plays
03:06
Why are two-man slips on PrizePicks not profitable long-term?
medium
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Why are two-man slips on PrizePicks not profitable long-term?
They require an incredibly high hit rate on each leg, making them mathematically unprofitable.
03:45
What is the advantage of three-man slips over five-man flex plays?
medium
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What is the advantage of three-man slips over five-man flex plays?
Three-man slips have higher win frequency (lower variance) but lower EV edge.
04:26
What does the Sharp Money tool highlight?
medium
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What does the Sharp Money tool highlight?
Cross-market EV plays where sharp action is occurring on betting exchanges.
05:47
What does the dollar sign in the Sharp Money tool indicate?
easy
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What does the dollar sign in the Sharp Money tool indicate?
The amount of liquidity available on the betting exchange; higher liquidity means higher confidence.
06:41
What is the recommended minimum data points in the Fantasy Optimizer?
easy
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What is the recommended minimum data points in the Fantasy Optimizer?
Three data points.
08:12
What is the EV edge for Wembanyama under 17.5 rebounds+assists on DraftKings Pick Six?
medium
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What is the EV edge for Wembanyama under 17.5 rebounds+assists on DraftKings Pick Six?
4.07%
10:56
What is the key mindset shift for profitable DFS betting?
easy
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What is the key mindset shift for profitable DFS betting?
Treat DFS as a market to exploit, not as entertainment.
13:41
💡 Key Takeaways
15.02% ROI Achieved
Demonstrates that a value-based approach can yield significant returns over 90 days.
01:15Optimal Slip Types Revealed
Provides specific, actionable data on which slip types are mathematically profitable on each app.
03:06Cross-Market EV Strategy
Explains a sophisticated technique used by sharp bettors to find positive EV sides of arbitrage bets.
05:47Mindset Shift: Entertainment vs. Market
Summarizes the core philosophy that separates casual bettors from profitable ones.
13:41Full Transcript
[00:01] for 90 days and here's what happened. For the last 90 days I completely changed the way I approach sports betting. No more gut feeling picks, emotional betting, or random parlays. Instead, I only focus on sharp sports
[00:16] winning strategies using tools like the sharp money tool, fantasy optimizer, and positive EV tool over at Odds Shark. And over these last 90 days I placed over 700 daily fantasy sports slips and honestly, the results completely changed
[00:30] Because once I stopped trying to predict sports perfectly and started focusing on value, probabilities, and profitable slip structures, everything started to make way more sense. And today I'm going to show you the exact strategies that I
[00:44] used and how you can start attacking DFS apps like a sharp sports better. But before we dive into strategy, let's take a look at my results over the last 90 days. Now here we are on my Pickit, a verified
[00:58] public bet tracker, and we can see the results that I had over the last 90 days on my daily fantasy sports apps. Overall, I had a record of and 20,
[01:15] 15.02% ROI. Now as we can see I started here on February 20th and over 90 days we achieved these results. Here's how the journey went. On February 20th through the beginning of April I was using a $10
[01:30] unit size. I was testing everything out, getting a feel for the waters, and how to smartly place daily fantasy sports slips. From April 1st through today, I started with a $25 unit size. And as you can see here, the chart goes up, but
[01:44] there was not a lack of variance along the way. Throughout the start of this challenge where I was using a $10 unit size, I made steady profit going into the beginning of April. At a max point I was up just about $730,
[01:58] dipped into a $25 unit size, shot up to almost $900 worth of profit, and then from April 4th through April 13th, I almost lost it all going down to $145.16
[02:10] worth of profit. That was due to a variance slip. When I raised my unit size, I hit a very rough variance stretch. And as a sports better, game. It was unfortunate it came at the time when I upped my unit size. And yes,
[02:25] as you can imagine, panic started to hit it. But I didn't give up with the sharp go through in the rest of the video, I stuck with them, I kept finding value on April 13th all the way up until May 19th, we are back up to over $1,800
[02:41] worth of profit. And now, I'm going to show you exactly how we got there. Now, the first thing that you need to understand about being profitable on daily fantasy sports apps is that there are actually optimal slip types. And
[02:53] this is something that almost no one talks about. Here's a tweet from Alex Monahan, someone who's made hundreds of thousands of dollars attacking DFS apps using sharp betting strategies. Alex lists out some of the optimal slip types
[03:06] on some of the most popular DFS apps. On PrizePicks, we can see that a five and six-man flex play is optimal. For Underdog, it's two-man power plays. Better optimal slip type is a five-man dynamic slip. Dabble, you can go with a
[03:19] three-man or five-man power play. And for DraftKings pick six, it depends on the sport. Now, notice something really interesting. PrizePicks two-man slips are not listed, and that's because they're actually one of the least
[03:31] profitable slip types that you can make on any DFS app. And this is exactly where casual betters get trapped. Most people think smaller slips are safer and easier to win, but mathematically, they are not profitable long-term. With
[03:45] two-man slips, you need an incredibly high hit rate on each individual leg to five-and-six-man flex plays on PrizePicks allow you to leverage payout run. And while two man slips seems easier to win, five and six man flex
[04:00] plays lead to a stronger positive expected value. Now, one thing I do want to clarify, just because five and six man flex plays are technically the optimal slip type on PrizePicks, that does not mean that a three man slip is
[04:13] bad. A three man slip isn't as optimal as a five and six man flex play, but they still are profitable and tons of sharp betters attack three man slips. And yes, a three man slip gives you a much higher expected value compared to a
[04:26] someone may prefer a three man slip instead of a five or six man slip is variance. With a three man slip, you'll naturally win more often. With a five and six man flex play, your EV edge may be stronger long-term, but you will hit
[04:41] much stronger variance. And trust me, if you can't emotionally handle the downswings of variance, sharp betting becomes very difficult. Through my 90-day challenge, I was personally using three man slips as my most common slip
[04:54] type. I'd mix in some five and six man flex plays, but three man slips were my bread and butter. And now that we understand the slip types, let's dive into the exact process that I personally used to make my slips.
[05:07] Now, here we are over on Odds Jam to break down the exact tools and strategy that I used to make my slips and make $1,800 worth of profit over the last 90 days. There are three tools that I use, the sharp money tool, the fantasy
[05:20] optimizer, and the positive EV tool. We're going to start out with the sharp money tool. Now, as I load this up, you'll see that I already have my DFS you're just starting out is go to the filters tab, select your DFS apps. For
[05:34] right now, we're going to use Underdog, PrizePicks, DraftKings, and Better Picks. You would show the results, and here you get the slips that are optimal on these DFS apps. So, on the sharp money screen, what we're looking at is
[05:47] cross-market EV plays, which means that this play right here, Juwan Champagnie over 15 and 1/2 points, rebounds, and assists is a cross-market play from Better to Profit X or Novig, two very sharp betting exchanges. The sharp money
[06:01] tool highlights when sharp action is occurring on these betting exchanges and therefore is a profitable or a positive expected value side of an arbitrage bet that you could theoretically take. When it comes to cross-market EV betting,
[06:14] you're looking to only take the positive expected value side of an arbitrage bet. And for DFS apps when we need to parlay legs together, this is a phenomenal strategy to use because you know you're getting the expected positive value side
[06:29] of an arbitrage bet against a very sharp better on a very sharp sports book or betting exchange. So, we can take a look at some of the things I like to see on the sharp money tool. Starting on the left-hand side, you see the dollar sign
[06:41] here. This is how much liquidity is available on the betting exchange. The more liquidity, the higher the confidence that sharp better has. And we can just take a look here, there's over $1,600 worth on this Champagnie prop. If
[06:53] we scroll all the way down, we can see there's a play with $159 worth of liquidity. Now, that does not mean that this $159 liquidity play is a bad play by any means, but we do know I would
[07:06] rather back a sharp better putting up $1,600 versus $159. However, when it comes to placing your daily fantasy sports bets, you want to have a lot of volume. It's very hard to just take your three favorite plays in a
[07:19] day and expect to make a whole lot of money long-term. Yes, you may be able to whittle down the slate to only take your favorite plays with the best metrics, but variance again is going to be a very real factor when it comes to placing DFS
[07:33] slips, and the more slips that you can place with an edge, the higher your ROI will be long-term. Now, if I was looking to make a slip on Better Picks right now, I would add this leg to my parlay. I'd scroll through to see what else
[07:45] over five and a half rebounds. We can take a look at this. There's $494 worth but still enough to get my attention. I then I would face the option. I could either add one of these two plays with
[08:00] either add one of these two plays with $170 worth of liquidity or $159, or I could take a look at another tool to see where I could get my third leg from. Let's do that for this example. We'll head over to the Odds Jam fantasy
[08:12] Better Picks, and then I'm going to switch my minimum data points to three. I always like having three data points of backing a play. It means there's more data going into the market on this. Now, what the Odds Jam fantasy optimizer
[08:26] shows you is profitable plays from a mathematical edge on each daily fantasy Better Picks. I have it filtered, and we're going to compare the line we get on Better to other sportsbooks. Now, if you're doing a five-man insured play,
[08:42] type, you're going to get minus 118 odds. For your own knowledge, just know in a three-man slip you're getting minus 122 odds. I always keep my filter on the five-man insured to see the best value on the board, but I know in my head I
[08:56] want to see sportsbooks with a better line than minus 122, and we can see that we got from the sharp money tool. It is also just a mathematically profitable play on Better Picks. We can see FanDuel, one of the sharper player
[09:09] prop books, has this at minus 132. We're seeing minus 129, minus 140 across the market. This is a profitable play long term. We're getting a better price than
[09:21] what the sportsbooks set this line at. Now, I already have my two sharp money plays showing up on the fantasy optimizer. I need to find a third play. There's nothing in the green range with the optimal hit type, but that doesn't
[09:33] mean that I can't take a play in the yellow. Now, you don't want to rely on profitable long term, but I can do some manual work here and take a look at Sam Merrill under eight and a half points and see that FanDuel, again, one of the
[09:46] sharper player prop books out there has this line at minus 144. Now, FanDuel is Caesars when it comes to their player props. They take in more action, so oftentimes they're the book that sets the market. So, I can assume right now
[10:02] that I would expect DraftKings, MGM, Caesars to all adjust their lines as we get closer to tip-off to match the price that FanDuel is giving us. So, I would add Sam Merrill under eight and a half points into my slip to complete my
[10:16] three-leg parlay knowing I really value this closer to the minus 140s where FanDuel's offering it compared to the minus 122 line that I'm getting on complete a three-man slip on Better Picks, and now let's take a look at the
[10:30] final tool that I use. Typically, my go-to's are the Sharp Money and Fantasy Optimizer, but I do love using the Positive EV tool as well, and we can go into it, we can clear our filters, we can go Better Picks, DraftKings, and
[10:43] this. So, same thing, set your sportsbooks, and then see where the value is on the board. Now, this Victor Wembanyama one under 17 and a half Wembanyama one under 17 and a half rebounds plus assists has a 4.07%
[10:56] EV edge on DraftKings Pick Six compared to the market, and we can go take a look at why this is. We can see we will get minus 122 odds on this play when, again, FanDuel, a very sharp player prop book, has this at minus 158. No Vig, another
[11:11] very sharp player prop book, has this at minus 137. So, that would be a profitable leg for us to put into a three-man parlay on DraftKings Pick Six when we're getting minus 122 odds as a set payout if you take the over or the
[11:25] under. Now, the Positive EV tool will give you some overlapping plays. All three of these tools, Sharp Money, Fantasy Optimizer, Positive EV, may at times show the exact same plays and if they do, just know they're profitable in
[11:38] are backing them, you're getting a great price against the market, you're getting price against the market, you're getting an optimal hit rate on a DFS app. If you don't see plays on multiple tools, that's completely okay. I like to look
[11:50] times I'll see plays that are not flagged on the sharp money tool or the fantasy optimizer, but still offer us an edge on the DFS app. We're looking at picks on better picks. Jacob Young under half a single wasn't popping up on
[12:04] I click into this, I can see that I'm getting minus 118 or minus 122 odds on better depending on the slip type that you're making when DraftKings offers this at minus 150. So, we're still seeing other sportsbooks offer this at a
[12:19] getting on better picks and this would be a leg that I would be very comfortable adding to my slip on better. Now, depending on what time of day you look at these tools, you'll see a different amount of volume popping up.
[12:32] best, sometimes it's right before tip-off. What I recommend doing and on my most profitable days, I've placed slips all throughout the day when different value pops up. Remember, these sportsbooks and these daily fantasy apps
[12:45] are constantly changing their lines to react to breaking news, to market movement, and a ton of other factors that go into them setting their lines. throughout the day to see when value is popping up and anytime there's an edge,
[13:00] All three of those tools that I just highlighted on Odds Jam help give you an edge over daily fantasy sports apps. And of course, if you want to try out any of promo code TAILS for a free week trial and 35% off your first month to get you
[13:15] started. When it comes to daily fantasy sports apps, volume is key. I wanted to place as many slips as possible every single day. As long as I have an edge against the market, it's a bet that I want to make. A lot of casual bettors
[13:29] get into the habit of only wanting one to two slips a day with their most confident plays. At the end of the day, if you have an edge against the market, you need to be exploiting it. So, perhaps the biggest takeaway that I got
[13:41] over my 90 days of crushing daily fantasy sports apps is that most people approach DFS apps like entertainment, while sharp bettors approach it like markets. You do not need to predict every game perfectly. Know ball better
[13:54] than everyone else or hit miracle parlays. Instead, you need discipline, volume, bankroll management, and a process centered around finding value. That's it. And once you stop betting emotionally and start thinking like a
[14:09] sharp better, the entire DFS industry starts looking very different. Let us know in the comments if this video helped, and again, I encourage you to stop looking at DFS apps as a recreational parlay that's going to get
[14:22] you rich overnight, and start looking at it as a market that you can exploit every single day. Because when you make that mindset change, you set yourself up for success just like sharp sports bettors do.