Live Crypto Trading Analysis — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:15] Hello everybody. How are you guys doing? So today we are trading cryptocurrencies. So welcome to the live.

[00:39] If you can hear me, I'm just going to I'm just I'll give it a few minutes. comments and let me know that you can hear me. Just go to the comments and type I can hear you.

[01:08] Type you can hear me in the comments of this video. Let's get started.

[01:20] Just drop just drop one in the comments so I know that you can hear me.

[01:54] analyzing. Yeah. You can send your coin for analysis, but first I'm going to start analyzing analyze Bitcoin and Ethereum. Then after that, you can then send your coin. Then I'll look at it and see the possible entries

[02:06] look at it and see the possible entries and and exits for that particular and and exits for that particular um coin. do is this. Simple um task.

[02:21] Let me know where you are attending this live from. All you have to do is to tell me the city and

[02:35] the city and the country. For example, I am in Lagos, Nigeria. Just tell me the city and the country.

[03:09] Macor was in our yesterday's class. And I know you have your question today. We'll get to the question question and answer at that time.

[03:23] So you can hear me, just let me know the city and the country you are in.

[04:06] comments. [music] Okay. I'm I'm now seeing comments from Twitter, but on YouTube I can't see a lot of people respond, but [music] I can't I just can't see the end of my stream. I don't know if

[04:18] or not. >> [music] the software I'm using to hold this live. live. I can now see Macor in Oka, Nigeria and

[04:34] we have Clint Clint the vendor in Lagos, Nigeria. Or see more people. Abiodun

[05:01] While people respond, we'll just get to the charts. was basically was basically we reviewed um the Forex

[05:18] markets, the traditional finance, right? So we did EUR/USD, GBP/USD, some Forex Um we even went ahead and looked at the S&P 500, gold, and the Nasdaq 100. Now, if you do it if you want to do a quick recap, I simply said that this is where

[05:35] I want to take a short from this zone. So this is my high probability trade region here. Okay? Now if you look at this, trade can still be taken from here. But this is low probability to me.

[05:50] um GBP/USD. I'm currently in this particular trade. Again, if I take this high probability is from this region. From around this region is high

[06:06] probability to me here to go down. So this trade I am in now is actually low probability to get to this high.

[06:18] Um Australian dollar USD. I just drew this before we attended this class. This is the low probability. Here is the high But today we're not actually looking at TradFi. We're going to analyze Bitcoin

[06:35] and Ethereum. Then I want to analyze a few coins from you So with that we'll go we'll just go straight to Bitcoin.

[06:49] say to give the reason why we could see Bitcoin down to as low as

[07:03] um $44,000. Okay? So if you look at Bitcoin on the 12-hour time frame.

[07:18] So from when we had this all-time high, we started descending. Now we break we broke below this, which is the the most significant low we had showing that we're going to go high we're going to go lower. And I see the

[07:32] stop at around this particular point. If you watch, if even if you look at the behavior of Bitcoin. So we had a range at this point. A range at this point. This drop here is about 30 6% drop.

[07:49] We had another another range here. This drop here is about This drop here is about um 39%. This is another range here. So if we have another drop

[08:01] to this point, which is about 40% drop. But I believe I believe that once we get here, we can start going higher. It's also very clear when you go to the 12-month time frame, you will see it

[08:16] So 12-month time frame is basically the yearly candle. You will see that it's a big gap between this point and this particular point. So this point and this particular point. So this is a massive fair value gap at this

[08:29] this is a massive fair value gap at this particular point. Here is a massive Okay? So there's possibility that Bitcoin may get to $44,000. But the thing is

[08:41] when it comes to $44,000 or it doesn't come to $44,000, it doesn't really matter because as traders what we trade is what did Bitcoin do at this time?

[08:59] If it doesn't do that, we trade that. If um um confirmation that it's going to keep shows confirmation that it's going to keep going up, we just continue trading

[09:14] it up. Okay? So right now we are in this range. And I dropped on Twitter some some weeks ago that that we are dropping from around this particular point. Then I actually marked

[09:28] it this way. I was like from around here, are seeing now. Now if I now go lower now to the 4-hour time frame, let's start analyzing to see what we can get from here.

[09:42] So initially we had some sort of internal change of character at this point. When we had this, my idea was that, okay, if you look at this, that we might we might respect this zone and probably

[09:57] we might respect this zone and probably go down from here or break this, make um make a confirmation entry here and go current lower I'm working with.

[10:09] But, as you can see that we broke that this internal change that we have here. We broke below it, and currently we are here. Now, if you look at this, this is

[10:23] an external low. This low This was the external high that we broke to give the breaker structure. This became the external low. If you look at this external low, we

[10:35] cannot sweep it. Okay, we swept it, which is not strong enough. Um what this sweep simply means is that we might go higher. Okay? But, you can see this didn't have

[10:47] enough strength to it. As a matter of fact, from this particular zone from this supply zone above here, this market seems to be um market seems to be um um seem to be

[11:02] reacting from this zone. So, what I need to mark here is simply one. What do I mark? I'm going to mark this particular low.

[11:28] And I'm going to go to the 1-hour time frame, okay?

[11:42] like a This is a significant low. It is significant high, rather, from this Let me make this smaller uh to be sure that it can be properly seen.

[11:59] here a significant high from this point. And if you watch this, this is a low.

[12:26] um I want to see this taking out. Because if you watch this, um I want to see this taking out. If I go below it, let me just show you

[12:41] this. This here, like I showed you on the 4-hour time frame, this blue line that marks this low is actually the target that I'm looking at. This is the target I'm looking at. But,

[12:54] can look take out. One of them is this particular one. We can look at this target here to take out. Now, let me give this another color. We can look at this target to take out.

[13:11] We can also look at this particular target to take out. Before we go to this big fish, which is this 59,000, and probably at the end of

[13:23] the day, we can now go to this 44,000. So, simply, how do we trade this? If I have a break below this, below this particular one, this one has not confirmed a break because it is still

[13:38] a sweep that we have here. Going back to the 1-hour to the 1-hour time frame. So, even on the 1-hour, what we're what we're having here is actually a sweep. So, when we now have a break below this,

[13:52] What what what we are seeing here is actually um it's it's kind of tradeable. Okay? Because, yes, we have we have this

[14:05] internal movement this way. This way. We have this internal movement. We have this breaker above here.

[14:17] And we're going lower. We have this break below here. The problem I have with this is that this is also a sweep. If I had a candle body closure here, then I could consider

[14:40] low at this point. I could con- consider this a breaker structure. Let's go to the 30-minutes time frame and see if this makes sense. So, on still on the 30-minutes, you can see that this is still a sweep.

[14:53] From this top, it's still a sweep on the 30-minutes. On the 15-minutes, let's 15-minutes. But, it's actually rejecting off of this point. So, there are There are This are a few ways you can trade this.

[15:06] One is you simply don't do anything. You wait you simply don't do anything. You wait until this finds its way down to this point. Whichever you find down to this point. Once we break below

[15:18] then two things. You look for order blocks or supply zones where you would take your entry from. And the target is this point, this point, and this point.

[15:34] This is one way to trade this. The second one, which I feel is is a little bit more riskier, is from this particular point. Okay? I wouldn't necessarily take this particular trade. Because this is an internal

[15:48] um a breaker structure. So, another way is simply one. We see here that we have Because of the fair value gap we're having from here,

[16:00] have here. Okay? If I pair it with a a um if I pair it with

[16:15] a Fibonacci retracement tool, this is one here. Now, so the Fibonacci has shown me this region as my area of interest, this region as my area of interest, this particular region, as my golden zone.

[16:36] So, one way I can trade this is simple. We have the golden zone. We have the 1-hour demand zone. Supply zone, rather. So, we have this. So, one way to play this is this.

[16:50] In this region, okay? I can now go down to the 5-minutes time frame in this region. frame in this region. I'm working off of this low.

[17:05] [clears throat] as low as the 3-minutes time frame, okay? So, in this region, so what I'm waiting for if this market is doing this, okay? doing this, we now had a break this way,

[17:24] If it does this, let me be sure that you can see this. If the market does this, break structure to the upside this way, then break structure to the downside this way,

[17:38] this becomes a break of structure internal, and this becomes a change of character internal as well. Then, from this change of character, I can draw my short

[17:54] position take it from this region. You mustn't wait for it to retrace back. Target this high, okay? Then, go all the way to this zone.

[18:07] Then, go all the way to this zone. This will be a very good trade. You might not get it as as big as this, but for. Remind you, this is on the 5 3-minutes time frame. So, if I go to the

[18:21] 1-hour time frame, and like I said, this is the first and like I said, this is the first target that we're we're trying to get.

[18:33] third target, and possibly this is the last target we're looking at. But, for at. Let me go back to the 5-minutes time frame and make this clearer to you. frame and make this clearer to you. Okay.

[18:58] One way is to wait for this retracement to go into this zone, okay? Then, you go to the 3-minutes and do exactly what I just explained.

[19:10] Another way is just be patient. You click this, set an alert here, and just simply be patient. This is a higher probability because all you're waiting for is for the charts to find its way down.

[19:24] to do the same thing. Throw your Fibonacci, look for your order block, and take a trade from around here to target this zone, this zone, or even go lower to a lower zone at this point. So, this is

[19:39] what I'll be waiting for on um Bitcoin. This one is a confirmed trade because we're having a proper breaker structure at this region. Since we didn't get that uh this particular region.

[19:53] All right. So, what I'm going to do now is simply one, draw is simply one, draw put on a lot here.

[20:05] day and just wait for what happens when this chart hits here. So, that is Ethereum. Ethereum is giving us similar thing. Okay, Ethereum is Bitcoin is more is giving me more of a

[20:19] bullish a bearish vibe, okay? But, Ethereum is giving me more of a But, Ethereum is giving me more of a berry of a bullish vibe, rather. mean. So, on Ethereum

[20:39] um this breaker structure here. And this is the external low that led to that breaker structure. here after breaking structure to this side.

[20:51] And we seems to be reacting off that external low. Uh the place I see us targeting is simply simply this region.

[21:11] to feel the fair value gap we have at this zone. Okay, we feel this very fair value gap we have here.

[21:30] me. But, before I can take any action on Ethereum, what I want to do is simply do this. I simply want to I simply want to wait for a break here.

[21:44] wait for a break here. I want to wait for a break. line. If I see a break of this line, then I'm I'm basically um

[21:59] I am being bullish, right? Just like um Bitcoin I want to see a confirmation here before I go bearish. Okay, if I don't see a going higher. So, it's really really important

[22:13] so you take a trade from here. He has drawn the um the risk reward ratio to entry, take profit take profit and stop loss. So, I'm just going to blindly enter it. It's important that you zoom in, go to

[22:27] 3-minute time frame and wait for a confirmation entry at this point. If you don't see it here, then and the chart just blows up to this way. You know that this whole thing has

[22:40] You know that this whole thing has changed. We start going high. matter of fact, if I zoom back you will see that I drew a channel here.

[22:57] So, I don't like I am actually very bearish on Bitcoin, but I won't be surprised if we come around here before going down. It's very very possible.

[23:13] before going down, it's very possible. That's around 72, 75, or thereabouts before we start going down. It's very possible. So, that is why confirmation entry uh it's one of the skills you need because

[23:26] if you are wrong um 70% of the time it's going to save you. 70% of the time if you're wrong, it's your trying trade blindly, it's you won't get

[23:39] this is my analysis for Bitcoin. For Ethereum, it's simply this. Have a break above, then I want to come Have a break above, then I want to come lower to trade.

[23:54] this is this? Let me make it clear. So, if I have a break above this line this line I'm looking at here. See this line here?

[24:07] this line and the break maybe is around this point okay? What I would do is one I could come here on the 1-hour I'm not seeing any demand

[24:21] zone here. It's pretty efficient. The only demand zone I'm seeing is actually Okay? Uh but, if you look at that below that demand zone, we are seeing equal lows, right? These equal lows

[24:36] is basically liquidity. So, the market is likely coming to sweep this equal low. Cuz this is basically um liquidity. So,

[24:49] if I have a break above this zone. Two ways I can do this is one I can take my feet from here to here to the top of whatever it happens to the top of whatever it happens then I'll mark out this zone as my

[25:02] it golden zone. It's called golden zone, Zone of interest. Then, another thing I can do is go to maybe 2 hours to can do is go to maybe 2 hours to investigate, 4 hours to investigate.

[25:17] I can even go lower to say 13 minutes to investigate. Are there places where I'm seeing a demand zone? Um for these charts, I'm not seeing a particular little one here. So, this is a 15-minute

[25:33] demand zone here. Okay?

[25:49] entries to go long from this point if we see the chart break above here. I'll do the same thing. I'll go to the lower time frame and look for a confirmation entry like I told you to go higher to this point. If I don't

[26:06] see that confirmation entry, we might break lower and keep on going lower from this point. All right. So, I've shown you two different um analysis on Bitcoin where I'm looking

[26:19] for a possible entry. How I have set the alerts to enter. I've also shown you Ethereum. So, I will analyze those two coins from you guys. So, go to the comment and just type what you want me to look at.

[26:37] Um type the coin in the comments. For some reason, I'm not seeing it here. Just type it. Let's see if I'm going to see it.

[27:01] I'll review two more coins and I can now take some Q&As.

[27:34] um BTC and Aptos. And somebody said drop SOL. So, I'm going to look at Okay, I'll just look at the three and we are done. are done. Um

[27:52] So, BTC is not there. So, I'm going to look at Solana. Then, I'm look I'll look at Aptos and Ondo Finance. Solana is been a while I should look at the Solana charts.

[28:07] Okay? So, let's do that. Again, I like to start from the 4-hour time frame to get the general um move that Solana is making.

[28:20] can see that crypto is basically they are very very well correlated. Sometimes I prefer I like Forex because you can see different move um from different assets.

[28:34] from different assets. But, crypto is all correlated. Most um coins are correlated. So, if we look at this, I'm having this to be the bottom. It's already marked out.

[28:46] This is a bottom at 67 of this initial move down. All right? And just like we were moving up before I have a high here. This is the last high

[28:59] in this particular range, this particular high. And this is the low that caused that high.

[29:11] This one. So, we have this low. Mhm. This So, this is the low that caused that high. So, this is a breaker structure.

[29:26] BOS. And this here Okay? Because this has not been broken. Mind you, we're on the 4-hour time

[29:40] frame. So, what I want to see is I want to see this go below with a candle body closure. Possibly Okay, so I have BTC. Let me

[29:54] telling. So, I have BTC marked into this zone, entering this zone that I earlier marked. All I want to do now is just go to the to see if I will see that night told you about.

[30:07] Like in this zone in this zone I'm not yet taking a trade yet, okay? happen. If I see this structure happening in this zone, then I can take this BTC trade. I can short it. If not it just keep going.

[30:22] Now, back to Solana, okay? Back to Solana. We have this break. We have this sweep. It's not a break. As a something. This sweep went down

[30:35] This sweep went down and we got into this particular zone. filled this fair value gap here. Touched this um supply zone here

[30:49] and seem to be going higher. So, what can happen? One I want to mark since we swept into this zone I want to mark this one as my low. Not Normally had it been that we went below this with

[31:06] a candle body closure I am more confident that this is done. I am more confident that this is done. Okay. And we can now start Okay. And we can now start finding our way to go higher.

[31:21] Now, because that didn't happen, what will happen here was a was a sweep into this zone. This is the more likely protected zone. No, no, no. What what I I think I mean I I didn't say the right thing.

[31:36] So, let me say it again. So, I said if we had a candle body closure below Okay? Then I know that this is done. Then what I will look for is simply a

[31:52] retracement. It's simply a retracement to go lower. we did not have a candle body closure here.

[32:04] demand zone. The disposition it's giving me right now is that we might likely go higher. So, we cannot we might likely go higher. So, we cannot go lower to investigate.

[32:25] vibe. One, on the 1-hour time frame, I can call this a break of structure, point. point. Okay?

[32:38] Then when I have this particular move here here I can call this

[32:52] here. Now because of how how low we went I still want to look at this top. I still want to consider this particular top here. This one.

[33:10] it's a confirmation that we're going higher. I target? Well, I'll target is simply the nearest demand zone, which is this particular one.

[33:29] But first I want to see this broken. I I want I would like to see this taken out. Now if this is not taken out and we now see if this is not taken out and we now see this one taken out, this one below

[33:45] lower. As simple as that. react based on what happened. What simply happened is what you want to

[34:00] what you want to react to. place to take this trade because we had a change of character. so low, I still want a second confirmation.

[34:14] So, I can call this a break of structure and I can look for a trade here to stands now, there's no trade here for me. me. If I choose to take this trade from here

[34:27] from this point, um let me go here. Let me Let me mark this point. If I choose to mark this point and now go lower, so I'm on the 3-minutes time

[34:40] frame now to see if I can get an entry. What I What I will also look for is um

[34:55] say this is just a messy It's actually a messy market structure. If I have had If I had this for example like I told you guys. Uh-huh. I can decide to risk this and take this

[35:12] trade from here. But this is straight drop from here and within this this region. This might actually go up and hit here, but it it's actually go up and hit here, but it it's safer to just wait to see what happens

[35:25] either from this region to confirm this or from this region to confirm this. That is Solana. Which other coin am I to look at? So, I have Let me go to Aptos. Have I ever traded Aptos?

[35:40] Have I ever traded Aptos? So, let me do Aptos APT. So, let me do Aptos APT. Aptos swap.

[36:01] has Aptos has been doing really bad. Like, damn. I'm not waiting for Bitcoin. I'm going to the I'm going to the bottom.

[36:18] really is very terrible. Just like with most coins anyway. But again, I simply wait for change and I trade that. So, let's just consider only this particular region that we're seeing here. So, we have this region. We

[36:31] have um um this this this this and we had this break we have. And we have this retracement and we've been ranging. So, taken out. Okay?

[36:46] Okay? And this was Yeah, it was its OB here. Okay? The next thing I want to do for Aptos is simply take my two from here and this is a region I will consider

[37:00] as the region to look for trade inside to go higher. So, I'm going to remove this. Remove the whole of this. Let me drop this better.

[37:19] reason why it's a change of character is because

[37:38] So, we have um a break of structure this way.

[37:52] Okay, even up to this point there are still break of structures. structure which makes this movement here

[38:07] which then make this one here a break of structure.

[38:23] we had this. Here is a 4-hour demand zone

[38:36] that has not been taken out. >> [clears throat and cough] out. So, what I want to do here is at this the four I've been on the 4-hour time frame.

[38:49] So, I can go lower and look for that night told you guys here. So, I can even go much lower to the 15 minutes now. Okay? And now look. So, based on what I've been saying

[39:03] we have this movement here. So, we have downward movement, upward, downward. What do we have here? We have a

[39:15] internal break of structure. You can see that clearly. And what do we now have here? what do we now have here? We have an internal change of character.

[39:28] We have an internal change of character. We can see that here. my Fibonacci again from this point. Normally, seeing this, I can take this

[39:41] trade from here. Okay, from this particular point. Okay, but I have to I have to consider the behavior of this particular coin. The behavior The behavior matters. Um that is why I don't just jump into

[39:53] look at the behavior of this coin. Does it respect this? If it respects that, then we are good. So, this is actually not a bad place to take this trade from. We can take a long position from this point,

[40:08] but since we're still within below this change of character, change of character, okay, this is not a bad trade to take. And I'm going to go to the 1-hour time frame and look at the possible

[40:20] areas we can now target. One of them is this um region. This top here.

[40:35] can look. Okay, let's target this top. Then if I go back to Okay, from the 1-hour, I can pull this up to this point. This is giving me a 2.7. It's a trade that I would take.

[40:49] Okay. It's a trade that I would take. I It's a trade that I would take. I generally prefer to see a minimum of two of three risk-reward ratio, but this is giving a

[41:01] 2.7. From this point where we are, it's actually a 3.28. So, this is a trade that just meets the criteria of what I do. But again, I don't trade Aptos. I would generally look for

[41:16] I would I generally Before I trade coins, I generally study the behavior of those coins. Does it respect, you know, the particular way I trade? If it respects that, then I am good. If not,

[41:29] then I am good. If not, I won't be good with this. Um I think I'll be doing one more.

[41:43] class. I need other things to attend to. So, one more one more one more one more. So, we did Aptos. On Okay, I have Ondo before after Aptos. On Okay, I have Ondo before after Aptos. That's what I've seen here on my screen.

[41:57] That's what I've seen here on my screen. Ondo.

[42:40] Um again, 4-hour time frame. Let's look at what the market is doing from the 4-hour time frame. Okay. Ondo has been ranging for a very long time. From this point, so I will I will

[42:52] consider this coin quite um quite a stable coin. It's quite a not not a stable coin. It's quite a strong coin. quite a strong coin. And the narrative is um

[43:05] The narrative is quite okay. Narrative based on the fact that Ondo is um I think it has to do with bringing real-world assets on chain. RWA. So, it's it's it's it's really a a

[43:20] Larry Fink has been has been talking about it and all of that. So, what do we have? If you look at this major move from this the top we have here, this one,

[43:35] this is a bottom. So, we have been in this range. That is what we are also experiencing strong coin, it's because Bitcoin has been doing

[43:51] Okay. So, back to Ondo. So, back to Ondo. So, we are in this range.

[44:08] because even the market structure have not seen any breakout from anywhere. Okay. So, I just don't trade ranges.

[44:21] I want to see a a clear breakout of the range, then I want to go long. I want to see a clear breakout of the range, then I want to go short. But if it's within this range, I simply don't trade ranges until

[44:35] coins other coins to trade. So, So, um thank you for Since we started, it's almost an hour. I was hoping this is this comes in 30

[44:50] minutes. Um there are coins that are going off here that I might want to start looking at to um trade.

[45:05] So, this brings us to the end of the live. Um I hope you guys enjoyed it. I might do another one. I will do lives on Mondays and Tuesdays now.

[45:18] Mondays for Forex, TradFi, and Tuesdays for crypto I'm trading. And on Friday, we might do a recap, but that is still tentative. So, thank you for attending, and I will see you guys

[45:33] for attending, and I will see you guys in the next one.