Bitcoin: Don't Get Frustrated With This | Bybit Important Update!!!

[00:02] here in the 57,000 per bit region with new dates for its regularization in the national market, and we're going to talk about the crypto world in general, which is giving starting with BTC itself, which on the

[00:17] weekly chart is indeed trying to consolidate this price base here in the consolidate this price base here in the 57,000 region, right? We'll talk more accumulation pattern we're seeing here on the daily chart later in the analysis, but we also have

[00:30] a distribution pattern on the 4-hour chart. However, looking at the weekly chart, I can see that we're trying to recover the price, folks, but without massive volume, right? This indicates that we do not have a bottom consolidation

[00:43] in the form of a flush. What would a flush be, right? A very sharp drop. We have here, right, a very large volume, a very large liquidation, and then normally we have a slightly faster recovery, right, a typical

[00:56] bumper run pattern, and so on, okay? This pattern that is currently taking shape, lateralized pattern. So, yes, although we have an upward movement, there's nothing to talk about yet regarding movements above

[01:12] 80,000, 90,000, 100,000, which would actually mark the maximum low for Bemark, right? This type of pattern, this type of price behavior indicates that yes, we are in the bottom region, but that we may still see downward movements

[01:27] , and we may even lose the 57,000 level, okay? This shows a certain strength, folks, for those horsemen of the think the price is going to plummet to the 43,000 or 40,000 range,

[01:42] right? There will be analyses below 30,000 soon, folks. In this type of movement , I think it's less likely, okay? But a search for liquidity, aiming for a stop below 57 is entirely possible, okay? So be very careful not to get

[01:56] overly hungry during these movements, okay? I see a lot of people going hungry, falling into despair, you know? and simply starts buying at any market movement. In area charts, we can see a

[02:09] very interesting price movement and structure, which is very similar to an accumulation pattern. We already had our first loss of funds without continuity, and we even had to retest that loss of funds, okay? So we

[02:23] had a larger movement here, and this movement here already represents the bottom line of this movement, okay? And now we're losing without much continuity, even now that we want to make a stronger move, to

[02:36] close this inefficiency gap, okay? So we have some higher liquidity targets . However, this is a pattern that usually comes after, there's another breather down here , often it comes to

[02:48] capture new liquidity, okay? Then, further down the line, an upward trend can begin. And even this recovery, even this upward movement here, folks, it's not a V-shaped recovery, okay? The

[03:00] market rarely delivers a V-shaped movement, unless we have a white swan event, okay? That would be something very out of the ordinary for us to have a more sweeping recovery. In other words, folks, I still stand by the premise

[03:14] longer, more structured timeframe for Bitcoin, okay? Focus on short-term operations, especially if you are a trader.

[03:26] So, you don't want to buy during these resistance movements, right? Are you trade on smaller timeframes, perhaps short selling, whatever? But perhaps short selling, whatever? But placing large trades

[03:39] while counting on this stop-loss order down here not being triggered, folks, is a bit more complicated, okay? In fact, the current price base here, at least for the 4-hour chart, in my personal opinion, is the base of 57. Why? Because

[03:51] 61 structure, folks, is much more like a price distribution structure on the 4-hour timeframe than anything else. In other words, I still consider the probability of very high. So, if you 're trading with the stop loss down here, the

[04:06] probability of you being stopped out is still very high, right? So, if you want to carry a longer swing trade position, or even a position trade, you need to use this base here of 57,000.

[04:19] So, folks, the further you are from that price base, the worse your risk- return ratio is, right? Here's a basic calculation: you're stretching your stop loss quite a bit, right? To get a stop loss of about 14 or 15% , you need to have an

[04:32] adequate risk-reward ratio of at least one to one. We're talking about something like 76,000, for example, for an entry fee right now. You can see that this is a very risky approach. Why? Because this target isn't very achievable right now, is it? Not that it can't

[04:46] happen, but given the technical analysis, the greater probability is that we could go up to 70 or 71, right? But don't go straight up to 76,000, okay? And nobody wants to open an operation and then be stuck here dragging on for too

[04:59] here isn't very profitable. Now, if you see a price pullback, you'll notice that it greatly improves the risk- reward ratio, okay? And that's how you okay? This is how you operate. Risk return. Therefore, resistance isn't just

[05:13] risk-reward ratio, and my stop-loss isn't looking that good. Oh man, but I want to press stop here. Everyone can do what they want, okay guys? But I personally wouldn't okay? Or you could set an even shorter stop loss , okay? In a long position, for

[05:29] example, on shorter timeframes like 15 minutes, okay? So you set shorter stop losses, right? Your initial capital investment also needs to be lower , right? It has to be appropriate. The shorter the graph timeframe, the greater the noise. Or are

[05:41] you really going to use that price base way below 57,000, okay? The only point is that there's absolutely no need to go into FOMO right now, but I'll repeat it for the thousandth time, okay? If you're a hold trader, right? If you are

[05:56] building your position for the medium to long term, we are already in a bottoming-out region. It doesn't matter, okay? If you're going to buy at 65, 61, 57, or 55,000 in the next bull market, okay? And this upward cycle, for now, is

[06:11] consolidated. We're going to have another bull market for Bitcoin, okay? No, we didn't have a die, nothing like that happened, okay? Altcoins are a whole other story, but BTC itself, folks, remains healthy. So, buying in this price range is for the

[06:25] long term, folks, medium to long term, right? About a year and a half, it's an excellent totally out of the market, oh boy, I didn't buy anything because I'm going to wait for the didn't buy anything because I'm going to wait for the price to drop to 40, 30, 20,000, maybe they

[06:38] 'll miss out on the party, right? Again, based on technical analysis, we can't rule out a loss of the bottom, but to predict that we'll go above 50,000 is very premature; you're not reacting to the price, you're simply playing the

[06:50] witch doctor, right? It's not prudent for you to carry out this type of operation, right? So, be very careful with anyone who is completely broke. If you 're completely broke and you're not a trader, well, what trader is? That's a whole different

[07:03] story, okay? But thinking about holding, folks, here you already need to have some exposure, right? Well, looking at the very short term, we still have a lot of liquidity down, okay? Again, to conclude what I

[07:16] told you, the probability of us having a slightly more pronounced recession is higher, interbank operating costs, a lot of liquidity, a lot of selling FOMO mode, it's high, okay? And it's during these pullbacks that we'll think about getting in, right? If

[07:29] folks, because we improve the risk- return ratio, okay? By triggering an entry point here, we can capture a much more interesting asymmetry, okay? So, right now, BTC, I'm keeping an eye on that, okay? Very similar to

[07:43] my previous analyses, okay? But the market in BER is real, right? A But the market in BER is real, right? A falling market doesn't bring us much doing analysis every day, folks, is going to produce very similar results, right? Okay,

[07:56] let's go. Ethereum, guys, Ethereum is also in a bullish setup here buying at this exact moment, right? At 4 o'clock, he's more of a seller than a buyer, actually, right? Making a sort of double top here, searching for

[08:08] liquidity, okay? It's a pretty interesting setup to operate as well, but it's starting to show a bit more strength. At this point, we broke down trade SMC, you know that we've created a shock here, a BOS shock, a

[08:21] change in the character of our beloved price movement, and we are also, whether we like it or not, forming a bottom-breaking pattern without much continuity. It's not such a neat, structured,

[08:34] neat, structured, we have in BTC, for example, but we still ca n't rule it out. Hey, can I come in now? Now is not the best time. Again, let it go up, no

[08:48] problem. If it goes up, up, flies, flies like a balloon, eventually it will hit rock bottom. That's where you come in. Be very careful not to get too greedy right now, okay? So, Ethereum, I see this move

[09:00] you're making in a positive light, I just don't believe that right now is the best time to buy, okay? It stretched quite a bit; whoever got it, got it; whoever didn't, for observe, right? There's an interesting trend line here that needs to be

[09:13] broken as well, okay? So we have certain characteristics, right? We have more interesting points. If it goes up, be patient, everyone. Learn this as soon as possible in the market, it will save you a lot of money, rather than missing out on potential

[09:25] gains, right? It 's much better to miss out on a move here than to just jump in and lose, right? Losing is always worse than not winning. It's something that

[09:38] we often end up learning is a constraint in the market. So, if you're wise enough to listen to those who have been in this market longer, to understand that problem, it's not interesting, it's not in my setup, I'm simply not going to

[09:51] buy," right? But it's the same situation as BTC, if we're going to go back below $0.500, guys, it's a bit more complicated, okay? Triggers mentioned above should be considered as a buyer's strength trigger. No

[10:04] need to jump, right? But these are very interesting purchase triggers in regions of interest , right? So Etheréum is also more interesting. And as for the other little careful, okay? We have one or two that actually have

[10:17] more interesting movements, but the premise, the most fundamental basis of altcoins, remains the same: it's useless , okay? You want to speculate in the very short term, you want to catch a bumper run here, something like that

[10:30] and dump system? We have several coins here doing pump and dump, that's awesome. Ah, but you need to build your long-term portfolio, right? To hold, to wait, right? Holding a currency for 6 or 7 months, folks, that's way too early, isn't it? I'll repeat what

[10:44] I've been saying for some time now. I don't think we'll have auto-coincidence like we did in the past, due to the number of coins and the lack of credibility of altcoins. So it's very sporadic, it's very

[10:56] difficult to get it right, isn't it? When I entered the market back in 2016, my friend, there were only a handful of altcoins listed on brokers, it was a tiny fraction of a handful. So the probability of you hitting a coin and making 200,

[11:09] 300% sometimes a day, folks, was much higher than it is today, right? Today we have hundreds, thousands, tens of millions of altcoins being listed frequently. So it's very difficult, the capital ends up being diluted, okay? Don't come at me

[11:22] with that "good projects, folks" nonsense. There aren't any good projects, that 's the truth, okay? If you want to work on good projects, don't go to corporations, okay? It 's a market that's growing very strongly, right? These are tokenized companies

[11:36] here, right? These are paired contracts, right? within the crio market. Wow, there balance sheets, so you have a fundamental basis behind it. If you have the product, you'll sell it, right? If you have cash flow, you have profit, right? So yes, if you want to

[11:51] operate in this way—good projects, good assets—then trade American stocks, okay? Trade in tokenized stocks, which have much more interesting price movements than altcoins, okay? Altcoins, for me, are still just for pump and dump,

[12:04] right? Bumper runs, occasional opportunities, but nothing more than that, okay? Be very careful, everyone. Be very careful if you want to do your workout routines during class, okay? Metals and indices, for now, everything remains the same, okay? Oil, which is the

[12:18] Being me, I'll be completely honest with you all, okay? It's difficult to operate in the oil industry, okay? Very complicated indeed, very volatile, it follows market theories very little

[12:30] , okay? So, it's much more influenced by news than by the more technical aspects, liquidity, and everything else, okay? So I 'm not the biggest fan of oil workers, right? I'm seeing a

[12:44] very large increase in people operating in the oil industry, but I would be a little careful. Just that. It's not that it can't operate, okay? But simply saying, " Oh, I'm going to look for a short around here," because technical analysis like that can happen

[12:57] overnight, and Trump might do something along those lines, right? Iran itself, well, we don't know, this volatility in oil prices is very much based on news prefer to stay out of it, okay? What I enjoy trading most is gold, okay? The gold

[13:12] here is in a more drawn-out pattern, okay? But for the medium to long term, I believe that gold exposure is a very interesting option here , okay? But in the short dragging, but it's a somewhat more predictable asset, okay? In many quotation marks,

[13:28] okay? But it's a somewhat more predictable asset. I prefer to operate this from here, right? Okay, this week, more specifically tomorrow, we'll have the results from Google, okay? Which can affect the market, especially this

[13:41] issue of, right? Let's see the balance sheet, the results from Google. And to little bit about BBIT, folks. Bibbit is currently undergoing the process of becoming a Brazilian company, to comply with Brazilian laws. And we've had an

[13:54] update on the dates, everyone. Yesterday, right, the way to simply close derivatives operations, futures operations, right, all products that are not regulated, actually within Brazil, right, the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission) doesn't have

[14:09] prohibited, okay, folks, but Brazilian companies, because there's no derivatives market, futures markets, the companies that operate in Brazil, they can't offer them, okay? But you're not prohibited from operating, right? There's

[14:24] always this big question, is n't there, folks? It is not prohibited for individual users to operate, but companies in Brazil are not allowed to offer it. OK? So, there was this update. So, starting August 11th, the operations

[14:37] that are already open, okay? They will enter shutdown-only mode. So you won't be able to add more margin, you won't be able to open new positions in the futures market within Bybit, okay everyone? Starting August 11th, according to

[14:50] internal discussions with the WBIT team, option to open a global sub-account on August 11th. And then, in that sub-account, we'll be able to trade derivatives, okay? Much like OKX does with its

[15:06] OKX Brasil and OKX Salvador divisions, we'll have similar initiatives here at Bybit. So you will still be able to trade on BBIT. The only issue is that on August 11th you already have open, right? Or if you want to leave it open, that's fine, but

[15:20] you won't be able to increase margins or do any kind of operational activity. You'll only be able to close your positions by September 21st, right? If you you will be liquidated. But on the 11th, we also have the possibility of

[15:32] operating this new global sub-account within Bybit. So don't worry, Bybit, okay? No problem at all. The only issue is that we're going to have to make our main account, we'll now have to create a global sub-account that

[15:46] will only be available on August 11th, okay? It won't be available sooner, right? So, that's all for now , okay? I also spoke with the people at Bybit, and they said there won't be a report of this movement from this sub-account, okay?

[16:00] Therefore, the global sub-account will not be reported. Why? Because for legal purposes here in Brazil, it's an international account, right? Therefore, for international accounts, reporting is the user's responsibility. Now,

[16:15] spot market transactions in the main account, those will be reported, right? So Bybit is going to end up being a brokerage very similar to KX, right? A brokerage firm that is international in one sense, but also national in

[16:27] another. Then it's possible to use the exemption. So, that's it, right? It's a bit of a headache, it's a bit annoying to explain, but as we get closer, I'll make a video here explaining this issue, okay? But don't worry,

[16:39] August 11th we'll have to migrate our Bybit operations to a global sub-account, right? And that's it, folks, okay? Be very careful and Even though we are in an upward trend, and even though we have

[16:55] trying to hit its bottom, I still believe we have more time, okay? So, phobia, or FOMO, at this moment can be very analysis, don't forget to leave a like and subscribe to the channel.

[17:07] like and subscribe to the channel. Thank you so much for watching.