Bitcoin Weekly Forecast – BTC (May 18–24, 2026)

[00:02] Traders, good morning again. I'm glad that quite a lot of people came online. Even more than I expected. What shall we do today? Today we'll do a

[00:14] B2C review, yes, because we have new variables. Let's see if last week's narrative worked, because on Friday it was n't very informative, in my opinion, because the chart hadn't yet shown the movement

[00:28] because the chart hadn't yet shown the movement that we had planned. Let's look at new variables and build a narrative for the current trading narrative for the current trading week for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Let's go in

[00:40] week for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Let's go in order. First of all, let's finish with the review, order. First of all, let's finish with the review, let's finish with the analysis of the position, let me remind you. uh, priority was given to finding short positions without any of that, you can go long,

[00:52] you can go short. Uh, the conclusion, I think, was more than clear. Which direction will I work in as a priority? This is the direction I worked in. This was a short

[01:04] narrative, a short vector of work. Accordingly, the final targets that we had outlined were, of course, the daily currency and, concurrently, the compression that is present right before, uh, the four-hour

[01:19] daily firewall gap, expressed as a four-hour low resistance. We reached it safely. Congratulations, the entire narrative worked from point A to point B without any doubts, really. What about the specific monetization of the position? It did

[01:36] n't turn out as rosy as it sounds from the narrative's perspective, but one way or another, the position was opened, let me remind you, by the RB, I won't go over it 10 times now. The final take was point B,

[01:51] which was designated in advance. I did n't invent anything extra here. We had a breakdown and confirmation on a four-hour timeframe, and on Wednesday last, it was the week before last, so it was a

[02:03] week. And at the time of the review itself, we were in this part, where we also received, in general, B as a confirmation of general, B as a confirmation of resistance and dominance, most importantly,

[02:17] that same resistance over the support. And the asset successfully achieved these goals. One position was closed at a plus of 2.7, I think, something like that, yes,

[02:29] around 2.7. That is, after the new variables, when RB was formed , uh, I also did the same thing. That is, I exited the short position the same way I would have entered the long position . Yes, but I didn’t

[02:43] go long here because the narrative was different. And then the position, two positions, or rather on two accounts, flew off the breakeven point. And the asset successfully reached its targets. This happens. Accordingly, what variables

[02:58] happens. Accordingly, what variables do we have? e- new on the chart, what is worth paying attention to. We'll leave the weekly Firewap with you. This is the area of ​​the resist that will require some extra attention,

[03:12] require some extra attention, but we'll leave it for later, yes. What else did we get last week? We have a short break, quite confident. We have, uh, on a higher timeframe now,

[03:27] look, what's important. This is when there is a difference in timeframes, when, more precisely, when you should switch to a lower one, and when you don’t need to do this. When you build narrative and context, look to the elder. When you have a

[03:41] look to the elder. When you have a clearly defined, highly probable vector four-hour timeframe, find breaks there, find confirmation of your hypothesis, and monetize this movement. This is a fundamentally different

[03:54] approach from the fact that you confuse variables for analysis and narrative construction on different time frames. Accordingly, we have a short Accordingly, we have a short break, and, by the way, at the same mark in the

[04:09] break, and, by the way, at the same mark in the form of 80,000x, which we noted in the form of the form of 80,000x, which we noted in the form of the IK level last week.

[04:21] so that you understand why I am doing all this. And besides the esnar break, yes, it's important to understand, Irina wrote this correctly, and great job on and great job on noticing it, we now have a weekly B.

[04:36] In other words, the same order block. We have a huge cut this week, which means the resistivity area is quite serious. Ah,

[04:49] but we have an incomplete filling of the file gap, yes, this is important to note now. I'll show you later why we need this. this. We leave all this unchanged. What

[05:02] else do we have on the chart? An important point has been added, uh, which we can also use to our advantage to build the right narrative, the will also be very clearly visible on the weekly chart.

[05:17] We now have a local premium discount account. That is, we have an understanding of the long-term market auction in which we find ourselves. Yes, but to build a local premium discounter, we need two things:

[05:32] pressure from buyers, a sharp markup, so that we understand that the price of, roughly speaking, 66 thousand is low enough and attractive to that very market auction to form. and there should have been

[05:48] selling pressure for us to see the maximum of this current market auction. What's important is that, in addition to the long-term, the long-term will be present on the chart for quite a long time, and the more

[06:03] local premium discount will be updated. That is, we can see an update of either the maximum or the minimum. Just be prepared for it. It doesn't work like that, you build it, you have it for life. But what will

[06:17] build it, you have it for life. But what will this give us? This will give us an understanding of the current price and the ability to navigate that price more effectively and, accordingly, make more informed and correct trading

[06:32] decisions. All. Well, that is to say, the logic is straightforward. There is no need to invent anything else here . What else should be added to the chart? Add daily currency. n't add it separately, right? I think you all see it perfectly well. And further, are

[06:49] there any targets for price movement? Yes, I have. There are both forecasts for a decline and for a current potential correction. When it comes to declines, I'm interested in

[07:01] several swings that are in the equilibrium area. This is 75, there it turned out to be 74 with some change, but in fact it’s 75. Oh, and these two swings. Ah,

[07:15] 75. Oh, and these two swings. Ah, two. Next, look at what we have in the areas of interest that are present on the chart. We have, a, the SNR itself in the form of traded volume, so any exit above will be perceived as the

[07:29] price being in the resistance area. Yes, don't forget about the separate time frame. Ah, that's one. And I've seen the location right here in And I've seen the location right here in many chats, someone does it like this,

[07:43] four o'clock. There is no point in this if you have a weekly PoE, in my opinion, because the weekly PoE will be larger and more informative for you and will tell you more about the depth of a possible reaction

[07:58] if we go for a correction, right? That is, where should you expect the price, up to what level and up to what level will you have a cancellation factor? trading idea and generally the moment of holding that very point. So we sorted out the short term.

[08:12] We are currently in a daily fairway gap. And what else is worth noting on the chart, this will, of course, be a very long-term perspective, but one way or another I want you to see this area . This is the closest support, which is

[08:26] located in the area, well, around 73,000. This is the area of ​​the current I don't know how to mark it. That's how it is. Let me mark this so that it is clear to you. I don't usually single things out like that. I do this only as part of the review. Well, that is to say,

[08:41] I already understand that this is an area there, and even a little lower here. Look, I'll explain it briefly. We had a pronounced resist here,

[08:53] yes, from which we got a reaction. For those who remember, they shorted remember, they shorted this whole story here quite successfully. Ah, at the current moment we have a breakout and consolidation in this area.

[09:06] breakout and consolidation in this area. Therefore, at the current moment, this is the closest, uh, relatively strong support, taking into account all this pricing, from which we can get a more serious reaction than we will

[09:21] get in the daily fail gap that we have now. We leave this area. It's hard to say whether we'll get there in a week or not. we'll get there in a week or not. Probably not. Ah, but this is like reading

[09:35] tea leaves. Next. And we have a daytime fayeva. What hypothesis can be drawn from this? In fact, in fact, you and I need to answer one question personally. How likely is it that a weekly candle will form? Which, in

[09:50] general, is not very difficult at the moment, but at the same time has several variables. Why? Because if last week I was almost certain that the current next week would close with a short

[10:05] absorption, so that it would be clear, yes, based on what variables, then the current week could close with a pinbar with a deep test B, yes, it could close with an exit below the extension, and so on. That is,

[10:20] we have quite a lot of variations, so this story can be localized a little more , considering that we are in direct local support, yes, that is, we are in a daily fail gap. And it is highly likely, I repeat,

[10:35] highly likely, that in the next few days, literally today, tomorrow, well, maybe until the equator of the week, that is, until Wednesday, we will receive a reaction here, that is, in other words, form a long

[10:51] imbalance. How will this be? Well, the classic reversal models that you operate with, and I will look at mine in the form of a confirma. Should this movement be monetized? It's your choice whether there are

[11:07] goals for it. That is, we in support, yes, have come to this conclusion. Will there be an update to this swing? I think it's unlikely in the current price action. That is, this is essentially a swing that will cancel out the long intraday trading idea

[11:21] if, I repeat, you monetize it. But why did I start talking about her? Because this is the first thing that awaits prices in the near future. Accordingly, are there any targets for this long? Yes, there is this strand

[11:35] to aim for. Let me repeat, whether you monetize or not is your decision. I will not monetize the long here. And I'll explain why. Because the next long, if an imbalance is formed,

[11:50] will be a new variable for me. Why? Because I want to see how many buyers there are here. Will it be in the form of a stable [clears throat] and as it was here, here, here? Or

[12:07] we will show relative weakness and a corrective movement into the resistance area. If we go with the second scenario that I mentioned, then I will remain a seller here. So, given just the set of variables that we

[12:23] have on the chart, namely the premium position relative to the current literally formed last week, that's one. Secondly, the descending

[12:37] structure, the area where resistance dominates over support, which is even more important than the structure itself, right? And this allows me to build a weekly

[12:51] short narrative, meaning that I essentially remain a Bitcoin seller. Goals. We have outlined the goals for this movement . I'll say right away that, given the

[13:04] current week specifically, they are quite more optimistic, which means they are less likely, right? That is, I am not sure that the price will reach the 75 mark during the current the price will reach the 75 mark during the current trading week. Ah, and most likely there will be

[13:19] a trade from support to resist. We will get some new variables, yes, in this range, which will range, which will interest me for a more high-quality

[13:31] I have basically decided on the narrative, unless, of course, new variables appear that will greatly cancel all of this out. Essentially, only one variable can cancel. This is the emergence of a strong support in the area, which is unlikely

[13:45] to happen. Or maybe cancel the narrative? If the narrative remains unchanged, then in terms of the trading idea, there are few variables for me right now relatively, well , far away from the resistor. If

[13:59] the narrative is short, then of course we need some kind of stable resistance, right? And as far as I know, many people know how to build a hypothesis . We'll go here, we'll go there. Well , I think, how can I put this correctly, uh, I'm guessing

[14:14] . Why? Because by the time we get here, everything will have changed 10 times. variable for dynamics, a variable for targets, probably not excluding, we have an intermediate swing forming, which will also act as a target, then we will

[14:29] send a specific trading week. Therefore, in terms of B2C, I think all areas of Therefore, in terms of B2C, I think all areas of interest

[14:42] is outlined for me. We will move forward little by little. Ether. On air, the situation actually looks even more interesting , in my opinion.