Why Is Base Token at 27%? That's Rubbish
31sThe blunt takedown of a hot prediction market is contrarian and prime for debate in crypto Twitter comments.
▶ Play Clip"Decent mention-market analysis, but 'live' oversells a pre-event stream padded with sponsor reads and chat filler."
This live stream focuses on prediction market trading around two major events: Coinbase's 2025 product showcase and Trump's prime-time address to the nation. The host shares specific mention-market picks, explains his research process using AI and analytics tools, and reviews both short-term and longer-term positions across crypto, politics, and sports-related markets.
Coinbase keynote predicted to focus on prediction markets and tokenized equities; Trump will address the nation in the evening. The stream gives trades for both events.
Deposit and trade $10 at Kalshi to receive a free $10 added to your account. Offer is only for US participants.
Robinhood launched its prediction market product called 'Yes No.' Coinbase's System Update 2025 keynote is at 2:00 p.m. Pacific / 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
Asks ChatGPT what the main topic of the Coinbase product showcase will be; it confirms prediction market platform and in-house tokenized equities.
At 95%, a market acts like a bond — buying it only nets about 5%, e.g., $100 returns just $4. Low ROI unless near-certain.
He takes 'no' on Base token being mentioned because the keynote is about prediction markets and tokenized equities, not Base. Enters at 78 cents.
Swept Trump mentions winning $120, gave back $60 on NBA Cup, lost $12 on a JD Vance speech. Lesson: stick to your edges and don't trade unfamiliar markets.
He considers 'acquisition' yes at 35 cents a solid play since Coinbase has acquired several companies this year.
Coinbase has a built-in multi-chain DEX; 'Solana DEX' is very specific wording. He takes no at 65 cents with small size.
Brian Armstrong has said he knows the Kalshi and Polymarket strike words. This creates potential insider-trading risk for mention markets, but he still takes his two no plays.
Tyrell, a top mention-market trader, notes 17 of 22 strikes are priced above 50%. He will lean mostly yes but look for overvalued no plays.
Biden, Christmas, and affordability are likely mentions. Biden is near-guaranteed if Trump talks about his accomplishments.
Biden is a guaranteed yes for him; tariff too expensive, drug cartel too expensive for him. He prefers high-conviction 90-centers sparingly.
He takes 'eight war' yes at 83 cents and 'Middle East' yes at 82 cents, expecting Trump to tout restoring peace in the region.
He likes 'no' on Epstein at 91 as a high-probability no. 'Crypto/Bitcoin' no at 84 cents is interesting but not a core play.
Kalshi announced combos, but not for mentions yet. He would parlay tariff, Biden, affordability, war, healthcare, no Epstein, and China yes together.
Takes China yes at 79 cents and water no at 61.8 cents, expecting Trump to say 'by sea' or 'ocean' instead of 'water.'
Mention Metrics shows Trump says 'Biden' 2.3 times per speech, making Biden a strong prop even at 92%.
He uses ChatGPT for details about events and speeches, not for profitable picks. Suggests a future video testing ChatGPT vs. Grok predictions.
Predicting match winners is just sports betting/gambling. Alternative sports markets where you have an edge are more like prediction markets.
He loves Kenny Dillingham at ~3x ($25 nets $70). Dillingham is young, reached the College Football Playoff, and Arizona State lacks NIL budget to keep him.
Coinbase: no Base token at 77, no Solana DEX at 63. Trump: yes China, yes eight, yes Middle East, no water.
Holding Coinbase and OpenAI to advertise during Super Bowl 2026 at prices of 66 and 71 cents; both have strong ad momentum.
Bought Dak Prescott to lead league in passing yards at 39 cents, now at 72 cents. Prescott has a 209-yard lead on Stafford with same games left.
On Friday, a 100% free community-based prediction market tool/edge platform will be announced, focused on research and trading alongside the host.
The stream's core takeaway is to focus on event-driven mention markets where you have an edge, treat very high-priced plays as low-yield bonds, and avoid trading markets you don't understand. The host finishes with a clear set of picks for the Coinbase and Trump events, plus a promise of a free prediction-market tool on Friday.
What is Kalshi's promo for new US users?
Deposit and trade $10 and get a free $10 added to your account.
01:19
What prediction market product did Robinhood launch?
A prediction market product called 'Yes No.'
01:57
When is Coinbase's System Update 2025 keynote?
2:00 p.m. Pacific / 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
02:14
What does the trader call a prediction market priced near 95%?
A 'bond' — you're almost buying a 5% gain instead of a savings account.
03:59
Why does the trader avoid taking 'yes' on Base token for the Coinbase keynote?
Because the keynote is about prediction markets and tokenized equities, and mentioning Base token seems very unlikely.
04:44
How many of the 22 Trump address strikes were priced above 50%?
17 out of 22.
13:37
How often does Trump say 'Biden' per speech according to Mention Metrics?
2.3 times per speech.
24:31
What is the trader's distinction between prediction markets and gambling?
Predicting a winner/loser of a sporting event is just sports betting/gambling; trading alternative markets where you have an edge is a prediction market.
27:38
Who is the trader's pick for next Michigan Wolverines head coach and why?
Kenny Dillingham — he's young, took Arizona State to the College Football Playoff, and Arizona State lacks NIL budget to retain him.
29:54
At what price did the trader buy Dak Prescott to lead the NFL in passing yards, and what is it now?
Bought at 39 cents, now at 72 cents.
34:35
High-Probability Markets Are Bonds
Reframes near-certain prediction markets as low-yield bonds, helping traders avoid overpaying for tiny returns.
03:59Stick to Your Edges
The host's real P&L lesson from NBA Cup and JD Vance trades shows the importance of discipline and specialization.
05:55Trump Address Heavily Weighted to Yes
17 of 22 mention strikes above 50% quantifies how bullish the market was on a 'yes fest' speech.
13:37Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting
A clear ethical and practical line: picking match winners is gambling, while trading niche alternative markets with an edge is prediction.
27:38Kenny Dillingham as Value Pick
Finding a 3x return on the most obvious head-coach candidate shows how sports-adjacent prediction markets can offer real edge.
31:44[00:01] All right, what is up everybody? Welcome in to today's stream. We have some big speeches today later in the afternoon and I want to go over both of them. We have a Coinbase event which is expected, or should I say predicted, to be almost entirely about their prediction
[00:16] market product, as well as tonight we have Trump addressing the nation. So, we're going to give out all of our trades for both of these events. And also, I have some,
[00:28] you know, more niche markets that I'm looking into right now that I see big value, especially as one of them appears to be getting towards resolution and you can still get a good multiple on this trade. So, without further ado, let's go ahead and jump into it.
[00:50] All right, and as always before we get started, guys, be sure to drop down below if you enjoy the content across crypto and of course prediction markets. Like the video and subscribe to the
[01:04] channel for more every single week here on In The Game. We have you covered top to bottom with everything you need to know across the markets. And of course, a big shout out to our prediction market sponsor, Kalshi. Kalshi is one of the fastest-growing companies in the entire world and
[01:19] we are super happy to be collaborating with them on the prediction market content. If you deposit and trade $10 at the link down below, you will get a free $10 added to your account. No gimmicks,
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[01:44] Let's just jump into it. As I said, we have two major events today. And I want to pull both of those up at this point. And we'll start with the one at 5:00 today, which is the Coinbase. It's
[01:57] kind of like a keynote, kind of like last night. So last night, if you saw, Robinhood actually had a keynote speech going over their prediction market product, which is called Yes No. Now, I think that's obviously huge that we see Robinhood jumping into it, but we also do have Coinbase
[02:14] jumping into the prediction market arena. So, we see here today, they have their system update 2025 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific and that is at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. And we can see across the
[02:26] board here a ton of different items that could be said. So, we'll go over this right now. Now, you know, you can always do your research on these. There's plenty of tools to be able to utilize like
[02:38] Mention Metrics or Event Quant. You can actually jump in here and type in different people, what they've said in previous speeches and be able to find value across multiple different markets. actually I want to go over just like the full process almost. So let's just
[02:56] pull up a brand new tab here. Let's go to ChatGPT. And we can just say here, "What will the main topic of the Coinbase product showcase on December 17th be?" So let's see if
[03:17] ChatGPT knows here so we can also just confirm that information, but for the most part, it is yeah exactly it's going to center on launching a prediction market platform and in-house tokenized
[03:30] equities. So this is very important during the research process that we jump in here and make sure we understand exactly what they are going to be talking about during these speeches. So will he say Bitcoin? Likely. Will he say prediction market? Absolutely. But
[03:47] the problem with this right now is at 95%. So unless you, you know, are really bullish on this and you are just guaranteed like he is going to say Bitcoin or prediction markets,
[03:59] it is one of those things in the prediction market space they call it bonds. So, you're almost buying a 5% gain instead of putting your money in an account for 3% savings over the course of a year. So, $100 on this only nets you $4 in return. And the
[04:17] same thing with prediction market. If we go to prediction market, $100 only nets you $4. What's up, Adrian in the chat? What's up, Sam? Wish there was some mentions for Base app. Yeah,
[04:29] I thought that was pretty interesting that there's nothing regarding Base. We hope to see that as we hope he pumps our bags. The one thing is Base token, but is he gonna say Base token during a product keynote around prediction markets?
[04:44] Literally almost guaranteed that he's not going to. That's a no play for me. In fact, that is a load of rubbish. How is this 27% now that we're looking at it here? How in the heck
[04:59] can they justify that this is 27% likely to happen during a showcase of tokenized equities and prediction markets? That's an interesting one. I'm not going to lie.
[05:15] You know, and honestly, before we jump into this, first of all, I do want to show last night, we actually swept the board on the Trump mentions, which are fantastic. But what I'm starting to figure out is, you know, some of these other events I don't need to go as
[05:31] heavy on. Like the NBA one, for example, I got cooked during the NBA Cup for like only $65, but you're just giving money back. So, we won 120 during Trump's speech and then we just give
[05:43] back 60 for no reason. And also, I traded a JD Vance speech yesterday. Definitely shouldn't, you know, I shouldn't have put the money that I did on that. I only lost 12 bucks because I got
[05:55] lucky on a few strikes. But at the same time, it just prediction markets are what you make them. And this goes to everyone. Like don't trade markets that you're unfamiliar with and stick to your edges. So the fact that Coinbase is majority crypto I feel a little more comfortable than just
[06:11] like the Robinhood keynote or you know stuff like JD Vance. But the Trump mentions we've been absolutely crushing and I do agree Sam. I think that the Base token feels uncomfortable for them to mention. Why would he mention the Base token tonight? That's not a tokenized
[06:26] equity. A tokenized equity would be the Coinbase stock. So yeah, I don't know what I'm going to do here. I'm actually going to take no on the Base token. Why the heck during their product showcase
[06:40] is he going to mention the Base token when it's about prediction markets and tokenized equities? So, I'm going to go smaller size on these just because, like I said, I'm much more cozy doing the Trump prediction markets. And also, they need to pay me out on these Trump prediction
[06:54] markets. I have like $58 locked up for my portfolio from this last night. So, they need to go ahead and pay that out so we can also put it in play for tonight. But, so I'm taking the no on Base token. I just see no reason for them to talk about that. That seems
[07:11] like low-hanging fruit to me. However, last night during the Hanukkah event, low-hanging fruit, a lot of people took the no on Christmas because it was a Hanukkah event and Christmas ended
[07:23] up being said. It was a yes. So sometimes this low-hanging fruit doesn't actually end up being, you know, easy money as they would call it. But at the same time, I do feel like Base token,
[07:35] I think it's a safe play. I just don't see why this would be mentioned in tonight's keynote. So, I'm going to take that at I think I got in at 78 cents. Sam, you took the no on that. And yes, on acquisition, they have acquired
[07:50] quite a bit of companies this year. And also, you know, the Cobie thing, Echo, I know that Polymarket has that listed. I wouldn't touch a specific product being named,
[08:02] but I do think acquisition is a pretty good one at yes at 35 cents. I actually think that's a pretty solid play. Just looking here. Perpetual futures or perps. Does they probably mention
[08:15] perps tonight at 70 cents? It's a little high for like 77 cents for something like Base token. I'm pretty comfortable with taking that. But at 70% on perps, they probably mention perps as I see here.
[08:29] Solana and Solana decentralized exchange token sale. That could be something to do with their acquisition of Echo as well. But as we see here, tokenized equity Ethereum. Honestly,
[08:42] the only one I love is no to Base token. And I think it's smarter for me because some of these alt markets with mentions have been treating me up and down, I would say. So for me,
[08:55] I'm just going to take one on this Coinbase speech. Yeah, Solana does feel really specific. I do agree. And I don't know. I mean, hang on. Let's see here. Use ChatGPT. Does Coinbase have
[09:12] a Solana DEX product? Like why is it now offers a Solana product? Okay. Yeah, it is their built-in decentralized exchange. Oh yeah, they can trade all it's the one they launched like a
[09:26] couple weeks ago regarding that you can trade all on-chain tokens on Solana on Coinbase. So, yeah, they might mention it, but why would they say Solana DEX? Why wouldn't they just say like our
[09:38] built-in DEX? And what is the other option? Solana DEX or Solana decentralized exchange? I don't know. Why wouldn't they just say like our on-chain DEX? I feel like that's just way, way easier.
[09:52] but I'm afraid he'll just say bridge and other terms. And even if he says like our in-house DEX where you can trade Solana tokens, that doesn't qualify as Solana DEX knows at 65 cents. Yeah,
[10:10] DEX on that's what that's the tricky part about these mention markets is that we actually it's hard to you know know exactly the word flow like our DEX on Solana. Is that a Solana DEX or we
[10:24] have built on Solana with a DEX or our in-house DEX? That becomes a little tricky. I don't know. Solana DEX no at 65 cents. It is very specific for them to be saying that. And at the end of the day,
[10:42] does their DEX do anything multi-chain? I don't. Is here we go. Is it a multi-chain DEX? Let's see. Yes, Coinbase's DEX integration is becoming multi-chain,
[11:03] so it's not yet. Interesting. I don't know. Solana DEX, I might come back to that one. I that's an interesting one. I might take the no on it before 5:00 and before this
[11:18] show is over. I might dive in and take the no on that, but for now the only our multi-chain exact. I'm taking it. I'm taking it. That just seems super super specific. I'm just going to
[11:30] put 25 on it. Like let's just see. And they need to pay me out for my Trump markets last night. Ruleboy, can this be manipulated? Yeah. So, one thing especially with Brian Armstrong himself,
[11:46] he's aware of these markets and he knows the strikes and the strikes are the words that are yes or nos. He has been in an interview and he said he is familiar with the markets and he's
[12:00] seen the words. So hopefully he doesn't just cook us with a yes fest just to be that guy. But at the end of the day, that's like federal investigation waiting to happen if he was just to look at the
[12:13] Kalshi words and try to strike it. So, yes, it could be manipulated, but at the same time, unless the participant really is just a scumbag, then I don't think they're going to manipulate
[12:26] it. Yeah. Like Brian Armstrong straight up said that he knows the Kalshi strikes and Polymarket strikes and he's willing, you know, and it's interesting that it could be insider traded and all this stuff. It's like, okay, that is kind of nerve-wracking taking two nos
[12:41] against the guy who said he's very aware of the markets. But you know what? I don't think Base token gets mentioned and Solana DEX. I'm only going to put 50 on this market. I just,
[12:53] But with tonight's nation address with Trump, I think there's a lot of value on the board. And look, these national addresses, same thing with last week's Trump rally. I think that it's one
[13:08] of those nights where he's probably just gonna be yapping. This guy's gonna yap all night. And Tyrell, who is actually one of the smartest mention market traders on Crypto Twitter,
[13:20] I think his P&L is like 60,000 or something like that. He posted here that the biggest mention market today is the address to the nation. It should be a yes fest, but he's never seen a market weighed so heavily towards yes buys. So the yeses are heavily favored tonight. 17 out
[13:37] of 22 strikes are priced above 50%. So and he's saying he will be on primary yes here, but also looking at overvalued plays to take the no on. So that is a very interesting point. Like
[13:52] you look at all of these only literally only five strikes are under 50%. And yeah, when you look across the board here, I think there's some simple ones. They've been saying affordability. I
[14:07] think he says Christmas. I think he obviously says Biden. The guy loves loves talking about sleepy Joe Biden. Those are easy low-hanging fruits. Like if you want a bond for tonight, which is like we said like a low-interest or like a high-interest savings account,
[14:24] this would be the one. I mean, you get 7% on every hundred. But for those of you looking for a little more ROI, that's where we're going to try to dig in here and find some value. I think that when we look across the board, he's probably going to say a lot of stuff. If we look
[14:40] at the, you know, just the Google searches on this latest on the Trump administration, the president to address the nation amid Venezuela tensions and healthcare battles. Now we can also just go
[14:53] back here and take a look across different sources what to expect, you know, why is Trump addressing the nation? Let's just go look here. Prime time address. And we can see the topic isn't super
[15:08] clear. And we'll also use ChatGPT here as well. "What is Trump's national address tonight expected
[15:22] to cover?" So, we can see here, consolidate all these news sources and see exactly what we're expecting. So, preview of 2026 agenda and plans for the remainder of his terms. Yeah,
[15:35] he wants to talk about his achievements. That is another thing I've seen. He wants to go over everything that he's done. A total, you know, my fiance is a Gemini and she always says, you know, Geminis were kind of crazy. You know, look, we Kanye West and Donald Trump are Geminis. I'm like,
[15:53] oh, that's all you got to say. So, you know, she's like, you know, that's why Trump is the way he is, he loves to talk about himself, loves to talk about his accomplishments. So, I agree. He's probably going to go in here and yap about tariffs and
[16:10] affordability under Trump and how inflation and interest rates and the different things going on in the Middle East. I think a lot of these strikes are actually super valuable. Let's
[16:22] just go through one by one. Drug cartel too expensive. Tariff too expensive for me. Biden, that's a guaranteed yes because especially if he's going to talk about his accomplishments,
[16:34] he is going to diss Biden. That is a given. So, I think that's an easy one. If you're willing to stick out any of the 90-centers, I would go with Biden personally. I think that he's guaranteed
[16:46] to say this, especially if he's going to be talking about his accomplishments. "Merry Christmas," at the end of his speech. Fentanyl has been a topic of discussion with
[17:00] the border recently. Big beautiful bill just rose to 91. Now it's back at 88. He definitely will mention this as well. This is a big accomplishment in that first 12 months. But kind of going down
[17:12] into this mid 80s section, I think Middle East is interesting to me. Eight war I think is definitely mentioned if we're going to be talking about, you know, his accomplishments over the year. That is
[17:24] one that I am probably going to take. And I'll just put 25 on that one because it is high-priced. I don't like uncomfortable risk on like super high price items, especially when it comes to
[17:36] mention markets. Like I said, the only thing that I would be willing to really go hard on as far as the Trump mentions here in the 90s would be Biden, but you're only getting 7% on your dollar. So,
[17:49] let's go ahead and see some of these other strikes. We have China, Middle East. I feel like he's probably going to say something about the peace in the Middle East. I think that that's a pretty good strike there. We'll come back to it. Hottest is like the it term as far as Trump right
[18:07] now. He's been saying we're the hottest country. We, you know, all the stuff we have on our side. He has really been tooting his own horn as far as that. So hottest is interesting here. Does he say Hanukkah the day after a Hanukkah event? Like that's one I might even look towards the no,
[18:25] but I'm not going to touch it because he for sure could go ahead and say it. Crypto and Bitcoin at no at 84 cents is interesting to me. And if you want a no strike
[18:38] that's guaranteed to hit the Epstein one, he's not going to talk about the Epstein files. No way that Trump is willingly going to talk about the Epstein files. So, if you want a no high strike, that would be Epstein to me. But I think that you know affordability I think that Biden I think that
[18:56] when you look at tariff you know stuff like the big beautiful bill healthcare potentially you know he's been talking sometimes about the Obamacare and the way that it was set up. China, he loves mentioning his good friends in China. Like a lot of this is yes he's about to
[19:14] get up here and just yap in front of the nation and you know Kalshi announced that they're doing combos. I wish I could combo these mention markets because this is the prime time example of a market
[19:30] where I would literally combo tariff, Biden, affordability, war, healthcare, no on Epstein,
[19:44] China yes. Like if we to I know they announced combos, but you can't obviously do it on mentions currently. That is something if the liquidity is there to do it,
[19:57] I would 100,000% be comboing like 20 of these terms together and cooking up basically what people would call a parlay in the traditional betting realm.
[20:09] But yeah, like looking here, I think that China is a yes. Actually, I'm going to take China. I'm not going to go huge on this. And also, I'm still wait, like I said, I have $500 just pending
[20:23] on this one to pay out from last night's Trump event. So, that's really aggravating me right now, actually. But I guess I could deposit more. I might just deposit more because I like this market. I'm going to do it on my phone, obviously, so I don't have to do it in front of the camera
[20:41] here, obviously. But I'm gonna add a little funding to the account because at the end of the day, I do like this market quite a bit. We will throw. All right. So, that should pop up here in
[20:54] just a second. I like China yes. I like eight war yes. America first. Nuclear. Dividend stimulus.
[21:06] Gulf of America. Water is interesting. You know, the other day water was one of those terms that was on his mention market, but he always says by sea. When he talks about the fentanyl epidemic,
[21:23] when he talks about drugs coming into the country, he doesn't say it's coming by water, he says by sea. Water, no, is an interesting one. That is one that I definitely might take a look at here.
[21:37] But first of all, let me go back up here. I'm absolutely going to double down on China as I did deposit a little bit since they're holding some of my funds hostage. So we have 62 shares on
[21:50] China yes. We have 29 shares on eight war yes. Um to be honest it's one of those things like I think all these 90-centers hit. No doubt about it. But I don't want to take just a bunch of 90s and I'm
[22:06] going to be on a lot of yeses tonight. So, we have China, eight war. I think it's going to talk about the Middle East. And how we've kind of restored a little bit of peace in the Middle East. So, I'm going to take Middle East yes. ICE, National Guard. I wish border was on here, but I think
[22:25] it's probably a guarantee that he says the word border. So, that is not a strike option here, unfortunately, for us tonight. Hanukkah, hottest, America first, nuclear, Maduro, dividend stimulus,
[22:39] Gulf of America, water. I'm going to say water no. Because yeah, his rhetoric recently has literally just been, you know, by sea. Yeah, I like that a lot actually. He coming in by boat, by sea,
[22:55] across the ocean, you know, across the Gulf of America. That could be your Gulf of America strike right there. So I do like that. So, so far I'm on eight war yes at 83 cents. I'm on Middle East yes at 82 cents. I'm on China yes at 79 cents. I am on water no at
[23:17] 61.8 cents. Yeah. And then if you're one of those people that wants kind of these markets where it's 90 something percent and you're willing to go out there and get a 5% return on your money,
[23:31] I would do no on Epstein for 91 or I would roll through and do yes on probably Biden. This guy loves to just destroy Biden on his speeches and just what Biden did to this country. Sleepy Joe
[23:47] Biden. How he ruined this country. I'm here to restore it to greatness. Yes, that's exactly what Trump is probably thinking in his mind every single time that he speaks. What's up, Blamey1? I don't know where to divide that, but how's it going today? Good to see you
[24:04] in the chat. And yeah, anyone who has questions across YouTube, X, throw them in the chat box and we're 100% going to dive into any questions that we get here. I renewed my subscription on Mention
[24:17] Metrics, but it hasn't updated yet. So, I want to use this to kind of go through here and be able to chat about some analytics on what he said before. It always helps to be able to type in some of
[24:31] these terms, how often he talks about it. Like he says the words Biden 2.3 times per speech, so Biden's a pretty good prop there, even at 92%. Ruleboy, between ChatGPT and Grok,
[24:43] which can predict the market with more accurate data? I think that's like an evergreen video idea that I need to go through like set aside 200 bucks, 100 for Grok predictions and 100
[24:56] for ChatGPT predictions. That's actually a really good video idea. I actually like that a lot but I haven't tested it enough. I only ask questions to ChatGPT regarding the topics of events, and
[25:11] like when they're happening, what it's going to be about, etc. So, that's how I use AI in my research process, more so about details about the events and the speeches. But I think that's a really good
[25:25] idea. Can AI provide you profitable prediction markets picks over a set period of time? We'll have to see. What's going on, Griff? It was awesome hanging with you at this point. What,
[25:37] two weeks ago almost. But yeah, that was a great time, man. It was nice to meet you in person. Yeah. So, for now, I'm going to stick with those. I'm going to be honest,
[25:49] I'm probably going to be on so many of these tonight. Like even affordability, like it's only going to make you two bucks on 25 or you know affordability makes you 8% on a hundred. Doesn't sound like a lot but would you rather put $1,000 in an account for
[26:06] 2% for the year or would you rather make 8% in 30 minutes when this guy's speaking tonight and yapping about all this different stuff? So to me like yeah these 90s are probably free money tonight. But nothing in life is free. I am not a financial adviser. I am just a Degen on
[26:23] prediction markets. I think for my official plays though, I like those. So, eight war, Middle East,
[27:25] China yes, and water no. That is what I'm going to start the day with on this market. And another one that I actually love currently, I want to just go to the homepage here. And
[27:38] I follow, and one thing I want to mention here is when I talk about this next market, I am not putting money on a game. I am not I think that for prediction market purposes,
[27:51] and I'm going to honestly remove the screen when I say this. A lot of people look at prediction markets like gambling. And to an extent, part of it is if you're going to do sports just on a winner and loser of a sporting event, that to me is the stereotypical definition of sports
[28:08] betting. There's no difference in you using FanDuel at that point. That's not a prediction market bet. That is a literal sports bet. Okay? So, I want to get that very, very clear. So,
[28:21] if you're literally going to come in here and only try to predict the outcome of matches, I think that that's very much borderline on the edge. Not even on the edge. I think
[28:33] that's the definition of gambling. However, if you go to some of these alternate markets and you follow sports and you have a little bit of an edge and you see what's going on. Actually,
[28:47] this is one on the homepage currently of Kalshi. And as we can see here, "Who will be the next permanent head coach of the Michigan Wolverines football team?" Now, I love this. I love this
[29:02] prop right now. So, this is an interesting one. We've seen this market move quite a bit. So, Kalen DeBoer is the current coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide. I don't think he's leaving
[29:15] that job. I don't think Michigan's a better job than Alabama. SEC is a little tougher right now. There's so many playoff caliber teams in the SEC, but I don't think you leave a prestigious
[29:27] job like Bama just to hop over to something like U. Michigan. I don't see that happening. Jedd Fisch the other day was the favorite at about 34%. Let me see here. Jeff Brohm,
[29:41] he's not getting this job. Kyle Whittingham just left Utah. He's 77 years old or something. He's in his 70s. He's not taking this job. And if you're Michigan, you want a coach that's young that's
[29:54] going to be there for the long haul. And there's one obvious answer to this. And he's sitting there right in front of you at a 3x return. And that's Kenny Dillingham. So, money has been pouring in in the order books here on Dillingham. And I think that he is the most obvious head coach
[30:12] selection for the Michigan Wolverines. And by the way, if you guys didn't see this, Vlad last night said that we're in a prediction market super cycle, so take that for what you will. But Kenny Dillingham is the current head coach of the Arizona State Sun Devils. And while he's very
[30:28] comfortable there, as he says here, "I love it here. I've said that since day one. They absolutely that's never going to change. That piece is never changing." He's kind of hinting there like if he leaves that he still loves this place. To me, that's like he's talking in the past
[30:46] tense. And we go back and we, you know, look at the searches here and we can actually just go through X. And what the conversation is is right now he doesn't have the budget to build up the
[30:59] Arizona State football team. And at this point in time his players are leaving. Like some of his players are transferring out because Arizona State is not giving him the money to compete in
[31:11] the NIL transfer portal. NIL is where you pay college players. Crazy times. They used to gift college players Hellcats and give them bundles of money to their family under the table. Now they just pay them out out in the open. But at this point in time, I think he will be 100% the
[31:29] next head coach of the Michigan Wolverines. I think it's the most obvious selection. I think it's from a young coach perspective, it makes the most sense. Everyone else is a little older than him. He has so many years ahead of him. He could build up Michigan to be a powerhouse. I mean,
[31:44] he got Arizona State to the College Football Playoff last year. So, to me, I love this one. And another reason I really love it is on the Yes, it's almost 3 to one. So, 25 will net you 70. So,
[31:59] you're almost tripling your money on this currently. And he is the overwhelming favorite. And he's risen since 10%. So, I love this one in the sports markets as far as today.
[32:12] Otherwise right now that's what I'm looking at currently. I'll go over to my portfolio. I wish I could go live tonight during the address that he has to the nation. I will be
[32:26] away from the computer, so unfortunately I probably won't be able to do that. But let's just take a look here at my selections tonight. So, for the night we have during the Brian Armstrong Coinbase product showcase,
[32:42] I have no to Base token at 77 cents and I have no to Solana DEX or Solana decentralized exchange at 63 cents. During the Trump address to the nation at 9:00 p.m. I have yes to China, yes to eight,
[32:57] yes to Middle East, and no to water. That is what I am looking at at this point in time. And also just checking in on some of our longer-term plays here. I have who will advertise
[33:09] during the Super Bowl 2026. I have Coinbase and OpenAI. Yes, I think those are fantastic prices here at 66 and 71. OpenAI has been doing tons of advertising recently and Coinbase always does
[33:23] these high-level psychological ads that like hit you in your core about crypto every single year. And then the first prediction market stream we did, I did take Dak Prescott to lead the league
[33:35] in passing. This is in profit currently. And he is still in the driver's seat for this. There's only really, you know, two other people with prices currently. And that's Matthew Stafford and Jared
[33:47] Goff. We can actually just go and take a look here. I think I should have this NFL pass yards. Let's see. And just take a look at this. No, not all-time passing leaders, but whatever. We will
[34:04] make it there. Stats, offensive leaders, passing. So, right now, Dak Prescott has a 209-yard lead on Matthew Stafford. They have the exact same amount of games left on the schedule. If anything,
[34:22] Matt Stafford could sit week 17 or 18 if their playoff seeding is, you know, lined up and kind of solidified. So, for me, Dak Prescott is in the driver's seat for the leading
[34:35] passing yards. And we actually got in on this at 39 cents. So, you can see here, we bought this at 39 cents at 72 cents. We've already almost doubled our position by the end of this. Then,
[34:47] we should be able to almost triple our money on Dak Prescott to have led the league in passing. So, that's kind of a portfolio update and what we're looking at for tonight's mentions. Like I
[35:01] said, I wish I could go live during the mentions themselves, but I just won't be around this evening. We will have a lot of upcoming streams. So, we have I think four on YouTube in the next
[35:13] 10 days or so. And then on top of that, I am going to be spontaneously just going live on X for some of these mentions. I think going live during the speeches is so much more engaging than just
[35:26] hearing me ramble and rant about the things that I'm looking at and the markets that I'm trading. I think it's much more engaging when we have a Trump speech or a Jerome Powell speech or during the Coinbase event, for example. So, those are some things that we're definitely going to be doing,
[35:42] whenever the time comes and those speeches pop up over the holidays. This is good stuff. I was late and didn't see you were going on. Have to go back and speech. We talked about head coach market and football that I really like. So, yeah,
[36:02] a lot of topics on today's show. And like I said, we're going to have a lot more of these. And for those of you on X, follow me. I know right below it says 0x Hustlepedia, but they did just grant me the OG Hustlepedia X handle. So, it's just Hustlepedia on X. I
[36:20] post my up-to-dated predictions there. And also, I'm going to be going live there spontaneously because it's much easier to just click go live on X than having to set up a full YouTube show. So,
[36:32] we will be bouncing around and do some spontaneous streams on X throughout the holidays. I love this show. We love you, Ruleboy. And, Scotty, Sheba, Trump speech is gold tomorrow.
[36:45] Should be fired up over Venezuela and China. Yeah, it's tonight. That's what I was going to say. It's actually tonight at 9:00 p.m. So, that's what I'm really excited about actually is that Trump speech. I think there's going to be a lot of yeses. Let me just go to the
[36:59] portfolio here. There's going to be a lot of yeses tonight. This man's about to get up there and absolutely rant. So, I'm definitely going to dive deeper into this market and potentially take some more yes strikes. But, yeah, I'm really excited for this. If you missed it, Scotty,
[37:15] Sheba, we are on eight war, Middle East, China yes, and water no. I think he's going to say by sea or ocean or across the Gulf of America. Those are my thoughts for tonight. And we're going to
[37:31] cut it here because there's no live speeches going on. I wish there were, but wanted to get these out. There's a big day of mention markets today, so take full advantage of it. And like I said, over the holiday season, we will be going live a ton here on YouTube and also on X.
[37:46] So guys, everyone in the chat, thanks for hopping in, asking questions as well. Like the video down below, subscribe to the channel. And as I said, if you aren't already using Kalshi, Kalshi to
[37:58] me is the best user interface. They have the best product in all of prediction markets. Their team, they are the sharpest. They're the quick to innovate. They're now fully on chain with Solana. You can earn 10 free dollars on your account by signing up down below. Deposit and trade
[38:14] $10 and Kalshi will hand you $10 in your account to do whatever you want to do with it. So, And the last thing I'm going to say is on Friday, I believe we will have a very special launch here
[38:32] for prediction markets completely free. Okay? So, don't get ahead of yourselves that, oh, what are they launching? No. On Friday, we're launching something community-based that is 100%
[38:47] free to jump into and is 100% focused on building an edge in prediction markets. A lot of people lack the tools, lack the ability to do research. We're gonna put all of this into one place for you
[39:00] guys to jump in, trade alongside myself, ask me questions, get all the data you need across all these markets, 100% free, does not cost you a dollar. So, we're going to announce that later
[39:12] this week, and I think it's going to be something that the community is going to love here for, you know, it's a burgeoning industry. I think prediction markets are like getting into crypto early or being like in the in a ton of these early niches, AI even. I mean,
[39:28] prediction markets won't be as big as AI, but I think it's like being early in these comparable industries. So, watch for that on Friday, and we'll see you guys on the next one. As always, play well, my friends. Stay bullish, and of course, trade responsibly, my friends. Peace.
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