Dan Ives Explains Why He Left for a Merchant Bank
45sHigh-profile analyst reveals his bold career move and vision, sparking curiosity and engagement from finance enthusiasts.
βΆ Play Clip"Title is vague and misleading; the video is a general interview, not a focused analysis of SpaceX's stock drop."
In this interview, Dan Ives, a Wall Street veteran and partner at Yorkville I & Co., discusses his new merchant bank venture, the current state of the AI revolution, and his views on key stocks like SpaceX, Palantir, and memory chip makers. He emphasizes the importance of execution for newly public companies and the ongoing rotations within the AI sector.
Dan Ives is building a one-stop-shop merchant bank at Yorkville I & Co., focusing on AI, energy, and infrastructure. He sees gaps in the market and wants to transform Wall Street by combining research, banking, trading, and capital.
Ives compares the current market to 'third inning, one out, man on first,' indicating he believes the AI revolution is still early. He would not have started a new venture if he thought the market was in the seventh or eighth inning.
Ives compares SpaceX's potential post-IPO performance to Amazon and Facebook, noting that lockups and indexing can cause dead money for months. He believes investors are betting on Musk as much as on SpaceX itself.
Ives attributes the sell-offs in Micron and SanDisk to a rotation within the AI sector, as memory stocks had been the 'golden child' recently. He stresses that earnings season and monetization are key to sustaining gains.
Ives views Palantir as a strong AI software play, emphasizing that it's an execution story. As expectations rise with the stock price, the company must continue to deliver on its government and commercial contracts.
Ives discusses the potential IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, calling them the 'foundation of the AI revolution.' He believes their public listings will bring transparency and healthy convergence in the AI arms race.
Dan Ives is optimistic about the long-term AI revolution, viewing current market rotations as normal. He emphasizes execution as the key differentiator for companies like SpaceX, Palantir, and upcoming AI IPOs.
What is a merchant bank according to Dan Ives?
A bank that combines research, banking, trading, and capital to support companies from private to public, with partners investing alongside.
01:08
What baseball analogy does Dan Ives use to describe the current market cycle?
Third inning, one out, man on first.
02:19
What does Dan Ives say about SpaceX's post-IPO performance compared to Amazon and Facebook?
He expects dead money for months due to lockups and indexing, but long-term potential is significant.
03:01
Why does Dan Ives attribute the sell-offs in Micron and SanDisk?
To a rotation within the AI sector, as memory stocks had been the 'golden child' recently.
05:19
What does Dan Ives say is key for companies like Palantir?
Execution, as expectations rise with the stock price.
06:52
What does Dan Ives think about OpenAI and Anthropic going public?
He believes it will bring transparency and is healthy for the tech sector, as they are the foundation of the AI revolution.
08:02
Market Cycle Analogy
Provides a clear, memorable framework for understanding the current stage of the AI revolution.
02:19SpaceX IPO Comparison
Draws parallels to historical tech IPOs, offering a realistic view of potential short-term performance.
03:01Memory Stock Rotation
Explains recent sell-offs as part of a broader sector rotation, not a fundamental decline.
05:19AI IPOs and Transparency
Highlights the potential positive impact of OpenAI and Anthropic going public on the tech industry.
08:02[00:01] bank along with several Wall Street veterans. Yorkville I & Co. partner and senior managing partner Dan eye's here. Did I get all that right, dude? >> You're the same guy. >> Exactly.
[00:13] pretty cool. >> Look, me and you have known each other for decades. And and look, for me, from a Wall Street perspective, it's like in my career. Because I wanted to do something to really build what I believe
[00:27] bank, Yorkville I's, that could transform Wall Street. Because I see the gaps. And when we when we talk about AI, energy, infrastructure, it's to build a one-stop-shop bank. And that's something I'm just so excited about. And
[00:41] especially, you know, I get a lot of questions like my role. I'm still be covering tech stocks, the same, you know, a lot of the the names that we're very familiar with. But this is really to sort of build something ground
[00:54] millions of people in your audience that have followed your work for many years. They may not be familiar with a merchant bank. Like, what is that? And how will before? >> Yeah, and if you go back to like Robbie
[01:08] >> Yeah, Thomas Weisel. >> the some of the early days of Jefferies merchant bank is basically, okay, you have research, you have banking, you have trading, but you actually have capital that you could ultimately
[01:22] alongside you have partners, whether it's investing, whether it's ultimately the the reason merchant bank is so important, private companies, public companies, okay, it's very easy to say you should do X, Y, and Z, whether
[01:37] that's on as a banker or an analyst. This is to really have a company that has all those, you know, all those skill sets that companies from private to and ultimately take them through that journey. And we're, you know, we've
[01:51] many more, you know, interested in coming in. Because look, this is something where I I I really truly believe there's it's seen around the corner where I think there's a huge gap. >> So, all new firms of this kind they
[02:06] initiated coverage on any names and like of the gate with? >> Yeah, again when I initiate I'll be be. >> I am look
[02:19] talked about I could argue if I felt like we are in the seventh, eighth inning I don't even know maybe that I would have done this, right? It speaks to my view third inning one out, man on first.
[02:34] And you know, that's something that fits into so many of my themes whether it's on AI, infrastructure, cybersecurity, software. Look at what Apple's done, haters, you know, they look at Apple and they're
[02:48] like oh they're out of the AI game, but you know, I don't know the price target >> Yeah. >> So, it just speaks to my view there's so still underestimating the scale and
[03:01] >> All right, let's talk some stocks. I imagine you have a little more leeway now than what you did in your prior firm. SpaceX below its IPO price. What >> I mean look, we've talked about it if you go back to look at Amazon on the
[03:15] IPO. Look at Facebook on the IPO. If you look at these with the lockups and especially with this and a lot of the indexing over the course of months but I think investors that are looking at SpaceX they're saying okay, what
[03:29] could this be over the next two, three, four, five years? And it's hard to say fourth industrial revolution without SpaceX, but any company like a SpaceX the valuation support is not there. >> I mean do you think a SpaceX goes the
[03:44] way you mentioned Meta goes the way of then Facebook where the stock was I mean from the time of the IPO for maybe 18 months after it was it was dead money. with SpaceX? >> But Zuckerberg pre-jiu-jitsu, okay, even
[03:57] >> He is pretty jacked. >> Almost as much as me. put you above him. >> [laughter] >> That could be a whole 'nother show. Okay. So, but the reality is like when
[04:11] you look at what Zuck did and you know, what the team, they had execute. I mean that the reality is when these companies go public, whether it's what SK did last week, whether it's SpaceX, whether it's Anthropic, OpenAI, look, the the golden
[04:27] path there, you have to execute. And if you execute, everything else works and reward for any of this. >> Is that that Is this the moment in SpaceX where if you sell it here, 5 years from now,
[04:41] thinking? >> Look, and I think that look, you're Like in terms of how investors view it. I mean, I think it just comes down to to a name like SpaceX.
[04:53] They're they're going to be central to this broader theme that we see in terms of AI revolution because it's also my view when it comes to Musk. Like Tesla I've talked about, you know, the chances are over 80% we talked about before that
[05:07] they were going to acquire Tesla. And this is this is essentially Musk. It A lot of it is really it's betting on Musk. It's betting on Musk as much as it is SpaceX. I think that's what so many investors are doing.
[05:19] >> Yeah, outside SpaceX, we are seeing large sell-offs in Micron and SanDisk. And on the one hand, Dan, I I get it. These momentum stocks, we got a little are going to probably unwind those gains. But I look at the fundamentals of
[05:32] both of these companies, and I it's hard to make the case that SanDisk is worth 30% less today than it was a month ago. >> Yeah, I think part of what's happened, look, the golden child of this AI revolution, you know, it was the last
[05:46] few months, It's memory stocks. I mean, a lot of times if you go to You you mentioned Cosby 2 years ago, someone would have to Google it. >> We start our whole day with look at the Cosby.
[05:59] looking at the Cosby. So the point is is that it just shows memory stocks have really been front and center. So I think you're seeing basically a maybe a little bit of a rotation there. But then I'd argue on
[06:13] the other side Look at where like Nvidia, what's happening to that stock? you just have Buffett with Alphabet. I mean, look what's happening in terms of that name. So I do think that we're going to continue and we've talked about
[06:26] it over the years like we're going to go through these rotations in this AI revolution as it plays out. But as you know better than anyone, it comes down to earning season. You have to show the monetization piece. Cuz right now it's
[06:40] just cap backs. You need to monetization piece as that plays out. >> Is Palantir still the messy of of AI? And then aren't they a when when Palantir reports soon
[06:52] that they're going to just destroy the short sellers? Like Palantir every they've gone public has been pretty damn good at least to me. >> Alex Karp. >> Okay, and I think it but it's not just
[07:04] about Karp, Palantirians you know, there was like it's something where from the outside I think investors they're starting to appreciate but I I think if you for really many years you know, when that stock was you know, in kindergarten
[07:19] you know, and a lot of the investors were saying like you know, it deserved happened. I think Palantir it's hard to say that
[07:31] like Palantir. >> Sure. cuz what they're doing on the you know, obviously on the government side. But for them it's the same thing. It's just as stocks go up, expectations get
[07:45] out there. But for them it's an execution story. And I I just think Palantir is still as you think about the ripple effect, the software piece is >> At this new firm, theoretically it is going to be where
[08:02] Anthropic going public, whether it's later this year or early next year. Would you launch coverage in advance of that happening as we as we've seen some shops do and what are your thoughts on an OpenAI and Anthropic?
[08:16] >> Yeah, and I've seen when it comes I mean I've never done that before, but we got >> Yeah, but but again it's like I understand I think in this in this new age I mean we talk about it in the age of AI. We're going to see like a lot of
[08:28] done this for decades, there's going to be new ways that companies are covering Look, my view in terms of OpenAI and Anthropic that it's it's really foundation of the AI revolution. And I
[08:42] do believe as these companies ultimately go public just like SpaceX I actually transparency. I actually think that's very healthy for the just broader tech. And but then for them it just comes down
[08:54] to like who gets out first what you know relative to the the Anthropic's done with the models obviously versus OpenAI in terms of what Altman's done and you look at the Apple lawsuit and I think that just speaks to
[09:08] less about the lawsuit but just choose the arms race. not just two companies, right? You're going to start seeing a lot of converging in this AI revolution. >> Uh it's good to see you. Uh and
[09:21] got to give me one of those jackets too. >> I Look, I I I want to get you a jacket sign it though. >> And then you wear it with one of your >> And then the glasses. I think that's the look. And the Corvette.
[09:36] >> Yours your yeah. Your success is well deserved and good to see you, man.
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