Stocks Skyrocket as Oil Drops

[00:02] here starting with Sara Eisen on the screen and oil dropping, which is really screen and oil dropping, which is really exciting because on Thursday and Friday we noticed that a $2 movement in the price of oil was all it took to tank the

[00:19] price of oil was all it took to tank the market. And today from market open where oil sat around buck 0250-ish somewhere around there a little over a buck 02. We are now down almost two full

[00:34] dollars from a buck 0250, which is fantastic fantastic and it is leading to strong movement in not just circle, circle which is breaking out of a major line right here

[00:48] Up 7.6% right now, but also the Qs bouncing off of softer line of 600 almost straight up. Uh and then in addition to circle rocketing, we've got Tesla on its way

[01:04] back to 414. Pretty incredible. Now, it's worth Pretty incredible. Now, it's worth knowing that we're only down about $2 on the price of oil. Uh and a lot of this comes after really

[01:17] bullish commentary from Bessen and Trump. And both of them have a tendency selling us a little bit of sizzle of the steak, right? So, there is a potential

[01:31] that this optimism wanes if there's some other bad news. They'll talk about using other bad news. They'll talk about using amphibious units in the straight as well as potentially encouraging other countries to help secure the straight

[01:44] and secure passage of the straight of Hormuz. Point is, a lot of short-term optimism and commentary doesn't necessarily mean we're actually going to get oil out of there. Although there's now talk about,

[01:57] you know Trump trying to take Kharg Island and and uh essentially securing that oil for for our own purposes. Uh we shall see. So, uh let's go take a look and uh see what's going on in the world. Uh first

[02:14] Uh let's take a look at this because it is a little contra to some of the uh administration today. Oil industry warns that Trump administration warns Trump administration that a fuel crunch will likely worsen.

[02:28] there. So, what do we got here? American oil executives delivered a bleak message to Trump. The energy crisis in the Iran war has uh it has that the Iran war has war has uh it has that the Iran war has unleashed is likely to get worse.

[02:42] Uh this is obviously bearish, right? Any $2 movement in Brent we're finding is is $2 movement in Brent we're finding is is really critical uh for the Nasdaq 100. It actually becomes a very easy trade. Uh and it's it's one that we've set up a

[02:56] few times now uh in our alpha report. You know that. You get that over at meetkevin.com. You pay once, you get lifetime access. And uh we've been setting up those uh trades related to moves uh in in oil.

[03:08] So, this This is basically saying, you know, you've got the CEOs of Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil warning that

[03:20] the disruption to energy flows would continue to create volatility, right? Uh in response, oil prices could rise Uh in response, oil prices could rise past current levels if speculators

[03:33] unexpectedly bid up prices and markets see a supply crunch. >> [snorts] >> this sort of Monday morning enthusiasm from Trump may not last. Now, we had this last week on Monday as well. I'm

[03:48] also getting an update here. Iran's news agency says Iran's supreme leader former revolutionary guard commander as military advisor. military advisor. That's not ideal.

[04:03] Let's go ahead and write that down under our geopol section Uh so Iran new supreme leader

[04:16] new supreme leader Come on. Okay. New supreme leader appoints former IRGC commander as military advisor. Uh less ideal as IRGC was closely

[04:33] aligned uh with prior uh supreme leader and is uh with prior uh supreme leader and is often seen as the most aggressive often seen as the most aggressive uh branch in Iran.

[04:53] >> Let's see here. What else is implemented or considering measures to lower prices? Administration officials have they're hoping to increase the flow of oil between Venezuela and the US. That

[05:06] will take a long time. They're working around the clock. Blah blah Meetings are productive. The world does not need $120 oil barrel Some executives are bracing for a prolonged period of high prices that may

[05:21] but could damage the industry and the economy. It's true. Uh let's see here.

[05:37] Yeah. Top comments energy crisis. The Iran war has unleashed unleashed is likely to get worse. The war that Trump unleashed. Yeah. All right. So, Iranian foreign minister says reports

[05:50] claim some neighboring states which host US forces and permit attacks on Iran are also actively encouraging killings. Okay. All right. Uh so, oil we saw this.

[06:03] let's see. Yeah, we had a hack on the medical firm. Nuclear Okay. Uh blah blah blah. Uh Okay, let's go take a look at a little

[06:15] bit of uh private credit. And AI's bid to allow X-rated talk is And AI's bid to allow X-rated talk is freaking out its own advisors. let's see. If Iran war hits Europe with energy

[06:30] shock it can't afford to absorb. Yeah, Europe is much more reliant on imports of oil and natural gas than we are. Uh Japan produces almost nothing. Europe is reliant for about 50%. So, you know, that's

[06:47] United States where we we are essentially self-sufficient. Now, we're still affected by global markets. Uh so, you know, oil prices rising even globally aren't great. Mind you, we're

[07:00] I'd really be watching this very closely. I mean, you you might even go to like a 5-minute average over here. Uh smooths this out a little bit, but I'd watch this very closely if I were short-term trading because these spikes

[07:13] right here will tank stocks. Uh you know, $2 is all the movement you need. If we're back at 102 or 103 by the end of the day, you know, we'll we'll be right again. So, it it's all on oil. It's it's really

[07:27] All right. So, uh let's take a look at this. Let's start with this one. All right. So, this is uh private credit. Hold on a sec. Let's slap that right here and that right There we go.

[07:44] credit today? >> [clears throat] >> So, [snorts] yes, I have seen this Wall Street Journal on private credit. Uh executives are trying to play it down.

[07:58] are trying to play it down. Are trying to play down the exodus of Are trying to play down the exodus of money. Yeah, uh this is very common. Um money. Yeah, uh this is very common. Um this is very common in the fund

[08:10] management business. Um because any drop in funds equals less pay for them. Uh the bias is very obvious, right?

[08:25] >> [laughter] >> Uh Apollo, let's see here. Zito calls out arrogance of private Zito calls out arrogance of private market.

[08:41] company might recover 20 to 40 cents on the dollar. Who's this? Co-president. Warns of arrogance in private markets

[08:57] and suggests uh some small to uh some small to medium businesses might only return 20 on the dollar. Okay, so basically what it sounds like

[09:13] it sounds like a bunch uh of crap companies exist in private credit. And private credit fund managers make And private credit fund managers make more money if they just say the

[09:28] underlying businesses are fine because they can collect higher AUM fees. Example, Okay? Uh Let's say a hundred million dollars into a

[09:45] one billion dollar company. Uh >> [clears throat] >> let's assume it's down in value 70%. But no one checks. Let's assume it's

[10:00] actually down uh 70% in value, but nobody actually checks, right? So nobody looks. Uh the asset manager can keep collecting, say 2% or two mil

[10:15] on 100 mil. Uh by checking if the value went down Uh by checking if the value went down uh 70% uh 70% their fees go from two mil to

[10:34] $600,000. So 1.4 million in fees vanish. Uh 600k. So 1.4 million in fees vanish. Uh 600k. There we go. So the incentive

[10:51] It's actually an interesting thing to think about, you know? They like the incentive really exists to not value them at all. Because if you even have a

[11:03] hunch that they've gone down in value uh even a hunch of a decline in value would make you not want to value the business because your fees

[11:15] would just go down. Yeah, that's interesting. Uh okay. What's this black box saying? Investors are fleeing $42 billion Cliff water corporate lending fund.

[11:30] too. Okay, what's going on over here? So, this is Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund. 42 billion. Uh now limiting redemptions.

[11:50] Can be difficult for investors to understand what they own. Yeah, they they report 3,600 holdings in this fund. Holy smokes.

[12:05] Names aren't recognizable. Yeah, I mean, look at that. Like A L K U Intermediate Holdings. That's a crazy example. That's a crazy example. Uh example

[12:22] weird Okay. Largest SEC registered private credit interval fund.

[12:35] another private lending fund called Ares Commercial Finance in '21. Kept adding. Cliffwater says still owns stakes. Blah blah blah blah blah.

[12:58] Whatever. This is some yapping about their Ares valuation uh a component that they bought. Whatever. All right. It gives us a little bit of color. It gives us a little bit of color. All right, what else? Uh let's see here.

[13:12] All right, what else? Uh let's see here. Let's go to uh let's go to the info. Oh, this is actually interesting. The AI boom has exploded SF's housing market. boom has exploded SF's housing market. Uh line of people even 14 offers 1.6

[13:25] Yeah, but 1.6 million dollars in in San Francisco. Like this more than asking price, this is actually the strategy in San Francisco. They purposely lowball these listing prices and and they know you're going to pay two, three, $400,000

[13:37] more. That's actually not a big deal because they're just underpricing them. right. I didn't know they were just going to talk about that. It's boring. All right. All right. All right.

[13:51] Let's now Uh I'm still watching oil here, by the way. We're now at 101.23. We've almost We almost moved back a dollar over here. This is bearish. You can see this uh here it is on

[14:05] uh I can't see what my chart is right now.

[14:18] But uh Yeah, there we go. Yeah, it just smooths out the 1 min really. A little bit of a pop there, bearish for the market. Opening and I have new infrastructure leaders

[14:32] following Stargate's strategy shift. Fine, don't care. Fine, don't care. Uh let's see.

[14:45] Navitas. That was great for them. Uh that is over five-year contract. Dutch firm will supply with a meta with 12 billion of dedicated capacity early next year, including the Vera Rubin chips.

[14:59] chips. Blackwell Vera Rubin. from it? I'm not sure if they're dropping the phrase Blackwell from it.

[15:14] What else have we? Nvidia cloud ally in talks to buy data Nvidia cloud ally in talks to buy data center site. Meta may lay off 20% of staff. Okay.

[15:39] Uh meta, how many employees? Pokemon card opening today? Sure, yeah, we can open a Pokemon card packs. 79,000 people. people. So 79 * 0.2 that'd be 15,000 people.

[15:52] just saw Amazon do, right? That's a lot. That's a lot. Uh okay.

[16:07] Trump meme coin rallies on Mar-a-Lago VIP competition.

[16:21] I wonder how much they're raising prices.

[16:35] the Prime membership. Okay. It's easy way to make some more money. It's easy way to make some more money. Raise the price. free AI features. What's this? Investors fear AI could damage

[16:50] traditional spending uh at software companies, but Oracle executives this week cited how Oracle's AI tools make them immune to the SaaS apocalypse.

[17:05] stuff? Oh, here. Whatever the reason making some features free is unusual.

[17:17] I mean, their business is really changing to one of data centers versus just software. I think that they're seeing they're seeing real declines in move. Uh

[17:31] okay. All right, so let's go to the times.

[17:47] all right, so Israel expands Lebanon offensive. Let's take a look at this. ground attacks against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

[18:00] China and other nations reacted to the response. All right, let's see here. So, I mean, this is this is um Israel's opportunity to just strike all these offensives, this is just the time for them to go run out and and hit

[18:14] everyone. Okay, so sent warships. We saw that over the weekend. Israel kept attack keeps attacking. Denies Israel denies that they're running out of interceptors.

[18:29] Yeah, this was a big Semaphore piece this weekend. this weekend. Let me see here.

[18:44] that's private credit. Let's throw that into here. into here. Uh Semaphore this weekend Uh Semaphore this weekend uh argued Israel is running out of

[18:57] interceptors. Uh Israel denies Uh Israel denies uh though they kind of have to uh though they kind of have to uh to not give their enemies an edge,

[19:09] right? Kind of have to. Okay. Israeli military has denied reports that it is running out of missile interceptors. More than 2 weeks

[19:22] into the war with Iran saying it has prepared for prolonged saying it has prepared for prolonged combat. Okay, uh-huh. they kind of have to deny this. So

[19:42] Carolyn Levitt, upcoming trip to China maybe just delayed. So much for what maybe just delayed. So much for what Chamath was expecting.

[19:56] experts on Monday called for an immediate de-escalation. Of course they immediate de-escalation. Of course they do.

[20:13] leader of the PLA, Palestinian group >> called the Pope. Okay. Get some more tea here.

[20:28] Okay, Iran has carried out more than 300 attacks by missiles drones since the war started. Yeah, but we know this has slowed Yeah, but we know this has slowed substantially.

[20:50] Germany rejected a demand for military support. Of course they did. has turned into like a little baby. Uh Uh let's see here. Germany rejects Trump

[21:03] let's see here. Germany rejects Trump call to help. >> [sighs] >> UK didn't respond. >> [snorts] >> Unclear about the meeting.

[21:22] intervene financially in the oil markets. That had to do with futures markets. That had to do with futures trading. All right. Let's see what else we have.

[21:35] Uh, let's go over here.

[21:48] [clears throat] stuff. Justice Department. All right. Little boring right now. So, we got the info of the Wall Street Journal, The Times. Let's try the FT.

[22:02] Journal, The Times. Let's try the FT. And then how is uh, oil moving? So, the whole market's going to move with oil today, right? with oil today, right? Uh, it keeps going up. 101.71. I mean,

[22:14] since we started the live stream, oil's been straight up. Which was our biggest canary in the coal mine for uh, the stock market to go down. Uh, so we want to keep an eye on that.

[22:29] Uh, so we want to keep an eye on that. All right, FT. Trump warns NATO faces very bad failure if allies fail to help the US. Yeah, Trump regularly lashes out.

[22:43] prolonged war BIS. Okay, we'll look at that. Is that the Bank of International Settlement? Underestimates private capital warnings. Uh, let's see here. Retail investors pull billions from private credit.

[22:59] pull billions from private credit. Yeah, no kidding. What else? Okay.

[23:17] this is BIS Bank of International Settlements. Let's Bank of International Settlements. Let's go. pack. Let me get my Pokémon pack ready for the day.

[23:36] get a paper cut than a hit from a Prismatic Evolutions pack? Yeah. Got to have that one ready to cook, baby. >> All right. So Let's see what we got.

[23:53] would threaten to cause a further surge in interest rates and a sell-off in financial markets. Let me see how Man, we're almost back at 102. Let's see how we're almost back at 102. Let's see how uh the bond market is doing right now.

[24:10] Still I mean we're down obviously, but still close to 4 and a quarter. still close to 4 and a quarter. The 210 is at 54.

[24:26] All right. Uh let's see here. Okay. Okay. If the conflict is prolonged, financial [clears throat] implications uh could magnify macro impacts. Spike in interest rates could pressure put a pressure

[24:38] whatever. Uh let's see. BIS I mean so far this is just very generic information.

[25:05] credit. Is this the same or is this somebody else? industry is already stressed or distressed.

[25:21] shorting, right? The hedge fund, which manages 38 billion in assets. Wow, that's a lot.

[25:36] loose debt contracts have created a ripe environment for corporate defaults. Yeah. And and they're positioned to make a fortune if that actually happens. Right. I mean, so a little bit biased, in fairness.

[25:49] but, you know, I'll make a note of it anyway. So, they have uh 38 billion under management hedge fund that

[26:01] is uh shorting private credit. uh

[26:13] uh weak cash flows and excessive leverage weak cash flows and excessive leverage will lead to wave will lead to wave of defaults.

[26:26] Uh This is in the FT. Corporate stress has been evident for the last years.

[26:38] lengths to generate return returns even as firms have struggled to exit investments. >> Roll-ups of car washes and insurance brokerage firms have had mixed results.

[26:53] of mom and pop businesses basically. Yeah, private credit or private equity has been going crazy for the mom and pop businesses. Which are often really relying on on the you know, the underlying owner. So, um

[27:08] many uh mom and pop businesses that have been rolled up in my opinion in my opinion fail once the founders leave.

[27:22] Super common. You know, electrician shop, uh plumbing cough talking his own book. Well, obviously, but I mean there's some element also of like obviously they they set up their book for a particular

[27:36] >> [clears throat] >> So, yeah, of course you take it a little bit with a grain of salt, but they obviously have enough of a belief they didn't actually believe in it, they wouldn't have the position.

[27:49] Lithium ion battery places and blah blah blah, whatever. Okay. Uh renewable jet renewable jet fuel, huh?

[28:03] I don't know if you can put that in a plane. Musk's $134 billion claim against OpenAI rests on numbers out of the air.

[28:17] >> What? The judge suggested Elon [clears throat] Musk's claim for damages is based on numbers out of the air, but ruled he could still make a case to the

[28:31] ruled he could still make a case to the jury. is pulling these numbers out of the air. Did I find it convincing? Not really.

[28:45] Based on what I find. No. set to begin April 28th. I want to write that down.

[28:59] I find that very interesting. Uh XAI OpenAI trial Uh trial begins

[29:12] April 28. Uh judge thinks Musk's 134 billion of damages are out of the air. are out of the air. Um not convincing.

[29:35] Um they'll get to argue before a jury. they'll get to argue before a jury. Soon. All right, what's over here? Donald Trump warns

[29:50] Trump warns NATO faces very bad very bad future. people you can you can sell a house.

[30:08] Well he might be saying that specifically about LLMs. Not saying that they won't do Uh AGI LLM comment. Let me see if I can

[30:22] AGI LLM comment. Let me see if I can find it. I want to see where you're seeing that. Oh, here we go.

[30:39] that's going to go as big as Transformers were. Oh, yeah, they can't find the breakthrough. Ah, interesting.

[30:52] architecture. Yeah, I mean that doesn't surprise me. I've been very anti this idea that we're going to have AGI and and more that we are much more likely on an S curve. That that's very interesting.

[31:07] Uh Sam Altman interview. Is there a link to it? Yeah, there is. Okay, well I want to listen to that. Well, let me just let's Well, let me just let's get a primary citation here. One sec.

[31:28] Okay. Let's see. Let's see. Well, that does me no good. I bet there is another new architecture to find that is going to be like as big

[31:43] of a gain as Transformers were over LSTMs. are smart enough to help do that kind of research. I would I would go look for like where can I find a mega

[31:59] breakthrough uh and I would use the models to help me. Yeah. Okay.

[32:19] copy. Okay. uh Sam suggests LLMs

[32:32] suggests LLMs uh won't help us get to uh AGI, need new uh won't help us get to uh AGI, need new innovation moment like Transformers. Uh this is unsurprising and aligns with what we thought.

[32:48] Uh the S curve of AI is um AI how should I put it? Uh advancement is slowing dramatically.

[33:02] Uh that doesn't mean uses are slowing as you know even uh even you know uh even you know 2023 level AI is still being implemented

[33:16] So like you can you can do a lot with where the S curve has gone. There's a lot of catching up has gone. There's a lot of catching up to do.

[33:30] uh AGI is a pipe dream for fundraising and is likely generations away. You know that's that's been sort of my take for for a while. Uh

[33:43] I and that's not to be bearish AI. You know there are plenty of good things we can do with artificial intelligence. I just look at it as intelligence. I just look at it as >> [clears throat]

[33:55] >> I my point of view is what can we do with artificial intelligence today? and where can we make more money? Where can we build great products with the

[34:07] technology that exists today not relying on any kind of new technology, right? We're almost at 102 on Brent by the way. That's not great uh for stocks continuing uh their run.

[34:21] >> [clears throat] >> let's see. Trump warns NATO faces Okay, yeah. Here's the Trump part. So Trump has warned NATO faces very bad future. Thanks for sharing that that the way. Who whoever was that? um,

[34:33] that's not a surprise. Uh, Uh, let's see here.

[34:48] I tea it honey. Oh, thanks. I I'll have to try that. Oh, let's fill some more tea in here. So, that was a JP Hamlett.

[35:01] Thanks. Appreciate it. All right, get that tea filled up right here. Here we go. Okay, what else?

[35:26] Well, that's the problem. It's it's really hard. I mean, you could go look at companies like Owl and just sort of see what the public perception has been uh, to these funds and and you know, they've

[35:39] absolutely tanked. So, what you really have is you have a public perception of private equity and then you really have no way of knowing what the underlying businesses are because they don't actually all report. Right? Like Blue

[35:54] Owl might report financials and just tell you, hey, we have a stake in you know, Joe Blow Plumber Shop. But, are you getting the financials for Joe Blow Plumber Shop? No. That's the point. It's one level removed

[36:07] from disclosure. Like, you know, with House Hack for example, you know, with House Hack for example, we are required to do an annual audit of all of our financials and we chose to do the highest standard of audit

[36:21] called a PCAOB audit. That's a very hard, a very expensive audit and we do This is like I think our third year now of PCAOB. Uh it's it's typically what you do, you know, eventually you want to bring a company public. It's good to

[36:34] kind of get on that that trend anyway. Because you need to use uh a PCAOB audit typically for being public. But anyway, um you know, you don't get that insider

[36:47] color into Joe Blow Plumber Shop. It's just not available. It's just not available. So, you're blind, you know? Uh okay. [sighs]

[37:07] Trump. Trump warns NATO faces very bad future if they fail to assist FT interview on Sunday that he could delay his summit.

[37:19] Right. Okay, so let's just make a couple notes here. notes here. Uh Trump

[37:31] possible. And then we have And then we have uh NATO faces bad consequences uh NATO faces bad consequences if they don't help reopen the strait.

[37:44] Man, I always want to put the g h in there. He's somewhat implying implying he might pull funds, right?

[37:58] Uh which is, you know, bad I mean Putin is loving this. Putin is loving this. Putin would love NATO to collapse, but mind you. Even Iran is testing

[38:11] Iran is testing NATO by firing missiles at Turkey.

[38:40] That sucks. Full rebound basically on oil prices Full rebound basically on oil prices after the initial enthusiasm of the day.

[38:54] funding thing. How much of NATO is funded by the United States? Isn't it like a quarter? I don't know what it is. Let me see. 15 to 16%. However, in terms of total defense

[39:09] spending, US accounts for roughly 60 to 62% of military expenditures. our spending, not on NATO. Okay, okay, okay. We contribute 15 to 16%. Okay.

[39:25] okay. We contribute 15 to 16%. Okay. We contribute 15 to 16% to NATO. Okay. That's a little less than I thought. Well, you know, sometimes you make a prediction and it's just wrong.

[39:39] Well, it was maybe more of an educated guess, though.

[39:56] came in a little box. Cute little colorful fancy box. You got little card dividers, too. Aren't those cute? Look at that. Look at That's one.

[40:11] It's got another side to it. You know? For the good old for the kids. Uh uh there we go. Yeah, all right.

[40:26] Uh uh there we go. Yeah, all right. Where was my promo card? There's a little promo card that came with this one. It's not really a pulled, promo. Oh, it's a two black star. Maybe it's

[40:41] worth like a dollar. These are like negative ROI opening packs, but they're so fun because it's like I never hit anything on a live stream. Um

[40:57] what's the energy going to be today? You know, I'm feeling fire. What are you feeling? Okay. Let's find out. Oh, psychic.

[41:10] Okay. All right, here we go. Cottonee Little Lio All right. Duraludon, Shaymin. You know, I need to really get

[41:23] like a zoomed up camera here so you all can see these a little better, but I'll anything fun. These are These are so cool. I really like these. This is a reverse holo. I love how they put like ancient in there. Look at that. Isn't

[41:36] that a cool? See with the little ancient bar there. I don't know, I think that looks kind of the rest of the card is holo, not the main card. And then we have

[41:50] Eevee, an Eevee reverse holo. And then the actual hit is Oh, a Leafeon. That's cute. Two star. That's pretty nice. Jack will be happy about that. I mean, that is technically

[42:04] about that. I mean, that is technically a hit right there. So, that's cool. That's nice. I don't think I have any uh card protectors here.

[42:19] But anyway, that's cool. It's like the first time we actually uh hit something here on a Prismatic Evolution. So, put these all aside here. Very nice, an

[42:33] EX. Graded, those can sometimes be worth is. Uh this is Uh this is the centering's really good.

[42:57] And the actual holo, I don't see any like ribs or bubbles. I think that actually looks really nice. use this one.

[43:10] All in all, what do you think? That's kind of cute. when he comes home from school. And Max. Yeah. All right, very nice.

[43:23] Makes me want to pull out my binder from '99. Let's go. I wish I still had my binder. I'm I have a very uh aggressive habit of not keeping

[43:35] things. So, I I take pictures of things that I like. And then I just get rid of them. I didn't actually have my Pokémon binder. point. But uh I kind of like getting rid of stuff.

[43:49] I kind of like getting rid of stuff. Um >> [laughter] >> So, pros and cons, I guess. All right, Iran strikes, Gulf hub, US allies, wary of joining, right? This is

[44:05] dismiss Trump's defamation case. Of course they do. Iran war choke point begins to cast out on global chip supply. Uh, let's see here.

[44:22] blah. All right, what is Oh. IEA says more emergency oil available if needed. Well, sure. I mean they have like 1.2 billion barrels. They only

[44:35] released a third of it. So, what do we have here?

[44:49] let's see here. Global semi industry is facing mounting threats from the conflict. Taiwan's semi government officials Taiwan's semi government officials blah blah blah.

[45:05] Well, hold on a sec. Helium, which is made through oil and gas refining. Wow. That could affect TSM. I didn't even think about that. I mean, who thinks about helium? Helium, uh, used by TSM for chip

[45:23] manufacturing, uh, is made through oil gas refining. uh, is made through oil gas refining. Who knew?

[45:37] advanced accelerators and iPhone processors.

[45:52] And I feel like it's a little bit of a stretch of an article, honestly. Not that Helium, that was a different one.

[46:09] investors may be underestimating the extent to which the Iran war can trigger resolution is certainly a possibility. We review the conflict extending into the second quarter as an equally likely likely outcome.

[46:24] Only about 4% off highs, no sign of panic. Blahdy, blahdy, blah. All right. Uh then I've got Ah, okay. Oil's kind of bobbing around

[46:37] today, huh? And that's Blue Owl. Circle is still killing it. This has been a This has been one of these stocks that over here did go below the orange line a little bit. But at the orange line, we did

[46:51] fundamental analysis on Circle and said, "When the market wakes up and realizes the fundamentals of Circle, this thing's going up a lot." Uh and it's basically doubled from the point that we did the fundamental analysis

[47:04] originally in the alpha report. Uh if you're not part of that yet, remember it's not just day trading. It's also long-term, uh you know, fundamental analysis that we do every single day, whether it's earnings calls or 10Ks. We

[47:17] do the work for you and then you get the uh whole backlog of of all the research we've done. You can kind of pick the tickers that we've done. And remember, you can get that at meetkevin.com. We've got a coupon expiring in a couple days.

[47:29] Uh we're also It's worth mentioning making really great progress on the Reinvest AI. We have um we're going into valuation valuation uh training uh probably Wednesday,

[47:44] Thursday. Uh which puts us in line for uh you know, a later in Q2 release for the valuation product. Which means you know, we're basically going to be able to sort real estate that's for sale

[47:59] throughout the entire country by how much money is in the deal. Right? You know, if a deal is listed really high and it needs renovations, your money, right? If it's listed low and it needs, you know, some some love

[48:13] you could have sometimes a move-in ready property that doesn't need work at all. We could identify that instantly across the entire country. I mean, the amount the work we're doing on it is pretty incredible.

[48:25] this, you could also use that same coupon code too big to rig. Uh and uh monthly model. But, we just bought a deal that probably worth somewhere around $2.7 million

[48:40] and we bought it for $2 million and and uh it needs a fraction of that a spread for renovation. So, I think House Hack made some uh some really good money on that acquisition and I'm really excited about it. But,

[48:53] that's closing. That's supposed to close tomorrow. I'll have to go wire money later. But, anyway, that's pretty exciting. anyway, uh

[49:05] good. All right, what else here? Uh All right, what else here? Uh let's see here.

[49:17] We did Bloomberg. Anything else on the churn? Not really. Okay. at 102. Really trying to push that 102 level,

[49:32] which is not great for stocks. Uh we got the Nebeus talk. blah blah blah bloody bloody blah. Peloton?

[49:48] Peloton is launching bikes and treadmills for gyms, accelerating have started doing that a long time ago when they bought Precor. Yeah, the Precor stuff. Is it Precor Procor? I don't know. Procor Precor,

[50:02] whatever. But, um you know, they're they're pretty uh that's a that was a pretty good acquisition that Peloton made.

[50:14] utilized it. I can't tell that they have so far. So. Okay, bonds. Bonds still stable. Brent

[50:28] at 102. Q's. Q's. Yeah, Q's are stuck on that 600 line. It's because oil's gone up two bucks. You know, look, I mean, how long did we

[50:40] last? Uh we lasted 17 minutes uh Friday. And we had a double top at 17 uh Friday. And we had a double top at 17 minutes and 25 minutes into the day. Today, we topped out longer, 52 minutes in.

[50:56] Brent and and then you'll know which way it's going. it's going. Parkour. That's right, Tom from MySpace. Parkour. That's right, Tom from MySpace. Well.

[51:09] disclosed. Oh, Megawatts that. Yeah, I mean, that could be proprietary info that uh Meta wants to sort of conceal. Uh mind you, it's also over 5 years, right? So, 27 divided by 5, you're talking about 5.4 billion dollars a

[51:23] Uh there could be huge cancellation rights. Meta is signing a lot of these deals with major cancellation rights. And uh you know, it's it's um it's actually very smart by Meta because if poop hits the fan with this crap, uh

[51:40] you know, Enbis holds the bag. And uh not Meta. So, I actually really like meta as a play because of that. First, I think their valuation is very low, but I also

[51:54] think they have these really good exit strategies with a lot of these, um, you know, what what do you want to call them? Um, hodlers, if you will. So,

[52:09] I'm, uh, I'm not jumping up and down, if you will, uh, over over those deal announcements anywhere other than than the optimism that that meta is getting the, uh, the better stick pull there.

[52:26] rates to come down at the end of the year? Uh, well, you need the war to end, year? Uh, well, you need the war to end, A, and B, you need, uh, the tariff inflation to actually prove to to start fleeting, which could happen in the

[52:40] second half of the year as we lap liberation day. So, once we lap liberation day, uh, you know, in April, we should sort of hit peak, and then have the oil impact. So, we're really probably going to be peak inflation

[52:53] April, May. If the war ends, we should be at lower rates of inflation come August, September, and then we could actually see rates start falling long war is not over, we're going into recession. If the war is over, we could

[53:08] go back to the moon, and, uh, rates can come down and the Fed can actually get back to cutting rates. But, I mean, so much right now is dependent on the length of this war. Hopefully, uh, hopefully it does end

[53:21] soon. Uh, it's not good. Because, I mean, you see it, a $2 folks, a a $2 mean, you see it, a $2 folks, a a $2 rise in oil slows down the rally that you get in the stock market. $2, that's all we had. That's all it took.

[53:36] Um, you know, it's these $2 swings. So, imagine when we get a $20 move in oil. You know, it's going to tank the market. So,

[53:48] anyway, uh yeah, and if this war keeps going on, eventually what you'll see is the 10-2 spread dramatically as the lower end comes down rapidly uh because of the pricing in of a recession. Uh that's not happening right now because

[54:02] there's still the base case belief that this war is going to be uh relatively So, anyway, I love you all. There you have househack.com. Use that coupon code toobigtoo.