Market Open: Iran War, Oil, Yields — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] statement So this is is reporting by Bloomberg We've seen this uh obviously the the the report but that wasn't from the IAEA

[00:15] IAEA tycoons Wow Early in March as

[00:30] executives at a Washington-based lobbying firm called Corvvis made an unusual suggestion The Trump administration should relax some sanctions

[00:45] days the Treasury Department issued of Iranian and Russian oil stranded at

[00:57] secretive sanctions busting shippers dark fleets a temporary past profit Corvvis represented a

[01:10] Singapore-based Singapore-based companies requests on for comment

[01:27] represent the Iranian oil tycoon or these folks Both men have sanctioned bunny But again this is interesting just because it

[01:39] how like outside money influence affects the Trump administration administration administration At the heart of Corvvis's operation is a husband and wife

[01:55] team Send her in Uh okay Let's see Let's see Let's see FBI has raided their headquarters No charges were

[02:10] were filed Corvvis employs 100 people according to to Pitchbook blah blah blah blah blah blah

[02:25] In secret private meeting in a series of private how they could shield their financial networks from financial regulators and navigate

[02:40] media Man it's all a secret club and we're not in it Huh uh do they make this link to to

[02:56] Russia and Iran Let's see Five months after after for

[03:10] some of these sanctions meant that Iranian That sudden change

[03:22] for the politically connected trading entities that dominate these people would have basically been a hero for

[03:34] also created a windfall for the dark dark Russian crude trade US officials put

[03:46] put coral under scrutiny release rejecting assertion Okay Beyond the salt in response Corvvis is never

[04:00] Russia part Let's see if I can find Iran and Russia It's a long relationship

[04:16] with Ibio part of Donald Trump's board of peace in

[04:30] Gaza man Lawmaker scrutiny Okay that's Putin Putin coral the shadow flea

[04:45] fleet Oh here Vladimir major source of support for the war machine a major source of support for the Kremlin War Machine Coral Energy

[05:00] Energy Coral Energy under scrutiny Corvvis helped them rebrand

[05:15] Interesting Wow That's I mean a quick read we can really grasp but it uh doesn't surprise

[05:30] me Okay so so IAEA confirmed activity regarding Pickax Mountain We talked about that and then we talked talked about

[05:45] CSIS Okay So as a result how are we doing over here horrible despite uh with with

[06:02] 69% Uh but but those pricing doesn't really matter until we CPI because it can can uh 68ish it can change very

[06:15] rapidly 67.8% right right now They're like tomorrow uh at 5:30 in it'll just end

[06:32] blow over this and buy a little bit more more time Okay Oil about 104

[06:45] 1047 Gez When's the last time we were over 100 That's probably March Let's zoom in Year today Yeah Over here Oh May We're still over 100 in

[07:00] been a pretty consistent uptrend uptrend here Okay Uh Q's are doing okay 13 AMD still down a couple

[07:16] percent A lot of red Bitcoin regained 77 Hood's basically basically flattish Cool All right And

[07:30] And anything else in Iran Let's go to let's try the Financial Times So Financial Time time times Silicon Valley bets on a

[07:46] bats startups moonshot sectors battery

[08:00] moonshot sectors I I guess that's fair Okay sticking on Iran for a

[08:15] a moment Saudi Arabia cuts oil output to lowest this year on Houthy threats So that's a problem too IMF ditchtop candidate for chief economist job over Trump terror

[08:30] remarks Houthies capture Red Sea Yes we talked about that that drone almost struck Silinsk's plane Wow

[08:45] plane on president

[08:57] to take off from Muldova Silinski confirmed the reports type drone That's crazy Could you imagine if they ended up

[09:09] uh Zalinski Zalinski situation would substantially getting getting updates now Yemen's Houthy spokesperson says

[09:21] blockade is lifted Iranianbacked Houthi and defensive Houthies say that the freedom of navigation in the

[09:33] interrupted That's an interesting I think what they're is they're trying to prevent the Saudis from lashing out against

[09:45] Americans in 30 different different states The White House overcharges under the the Obamacare health insurance

[09:57] over the years they've been accumulating in an account at issue those checks tober Of course that's that's just a

[10:09] suggesting here that these overcharges were collected by funds that were not used to benefit the Americans who paid

[10:21] Americans coming just before president last night uh at his midterm convention in in Dallas

[10:33] $5,000 000 to every American uh if Republicans were to win administration that is focus

[10:46] Whether the that work work out that's a separate question but the

[10:58] the president said last night he wants to send more money to more to but Congress ostensibly will have something to say about that

[11:10] about whether they would have the votes for it. Yeah I mean that You're talking about in a trillion dollar expenditure

[11:22] would not be balanced by anything And of course uh the and and send that money back to Americans Um and that of course

[11:34] great for dealing dealing with American deficits So at some unclear Uh but this idea of just sending money

[11:46] twice in 24 hours from this that you're you're talking about it who's eligible It's it's

[11:58] premium It's a subset of enrolles to Obamacare uh who the the administration says were overcharged in the pre previous

[12:10] saying is that it'll be ultimately who will qualify

[12:22] Obamacare uh but nearly a million Americans in 30 states Javies This morning still oil extends its its gains today

[12:34] 106 this morning And we're getting some new inventory data cross CEO of Compass is with us We'll get his reaction to

[12:46] there's a lot just just going the $5,000 stimulus you've got the the $500 Apparently this is

[12:58] to affect uh the our back from insurance

[13:11] this Okay So this is $500 Obama

[13:25] Obama Care refund Okay So it looks like this is Let's pull this out over here here sec Okay here's an an Axios piece on exactly

[13:40] what's going on So this is $500 checks to as many as as 1 million people overcharged for health insurance premiums under under

[13:55] Obamacare Okay Uh this would be a direct deposit deposit 30 states Uh this

[14:10] would be be right before the election Of course we said to be tenant of Trump's subsidizing Americans directly for their coverage

[14:27] planned and previously previously uh talked about um I mean subsidizing people people

[14:40] people directly This also lets him brand it as you know his money so to speak uh uh that he's distributing Okay Uh

[14:55] the money would come from let's see excess fees fees paid by so it's some kind of calculation money comes comes from some calculation of excess uh fees paid

[15:10] by Obamacare enrollies enrollies uh who then uh well I'm guessing that White House must have negotiated negot some refund uh

[15:25] excess fees came back to gov So basically basically basically uh it's money people already paid for their insurance that they're getting getting part

[15:40] of back So it's not debt bond market is super nervous about this right now Uh officials

[15:55] don't receive premium assistance So eligibility eligibility eligility enrolled in Obamacare don't receive

[16:10] subsidy Okay Mostly these states states right here Alabama Alaska

[16:25] South Carolina Michigan Ohio there is a White White House brief

[16:37] using fees from this fund to help provide no no cost plans that didn't cover it Republicans in Congress objected

[16:49] dedicated to upkeep Obamacare exchanges exchanges staffers who objected

[17:06] Trump of the fees to to lower premiums but realized there was a sizable

[17:18] pushing a new healthcare healthcare plan Okay so there's Interesting There is a White House rebate on

[17:30] this Let me see see here Where is it okay Uh let's let's see Small fee Oh they come from basically

[17:45] fees to to run the actual Obamacare website Fees paid by insurers insurers to run Obamacare website Uh White House says 500 million million extra

[18:00] is built up from Biden gears Actually interesting It's basically just dispersing that that

[18:15] 500 million $500 a piece That's That's where you get it So 500 $500 times 1 million people equals 500 mil Basically d like clearing out out the

[18:30] fund Okay So that's really interesting So it really really grew under Biden not Trump So it's almost kind of like

[18:45] like a Biden stemi Uh the White House press release Americans through Obamacare plan exchanges under user fees that were passed

[19:00] funding actually

[19:12] overcharges As a result the Biden administration accumulated funds How interesting They're actually bluntly saying "Yeah it

[19:24] actually Biden's money that we're giving back but the branding is but they overcharged you Obviously if purpose which you

[19:41] people order Blah blah blah Okay this is all on the Trump is calling

[19:53] enact the great health care plan to lower drug prices right is is hard Nothing's getting done till after midterms and

[20:05] This is really emptying a pot that already exists It's not It's not more more debt which I guess that's that's

[20:25] subsidies occurred between 2021 to 2025 And these subsidies subsidies doubled enrollment to 24 million before the

[20:40] subsidies is expired Ah I see Okay So uh in part uh the excess fees based on a percentage of

[20:55] premiums uh didn't adjust down with scale as as enrollment doubled to 24 million people between 2021 to 2025 That makes

[21:10] sense Uh let's see here The fees were about the fees fees were between 2 75 to 3.5% some under Obama term

[21:30] Okay So some term one Some of the fees wasn't

[21:47] I mean it's really what he's doing is he's pulling pulling to try to get votes It's it's everything

[22:00] everything possible to build votes right All right Uh very very nice Nice little so that's good

[22:17] might hit the restroom really quick before I explode I'll be matte finishing side versus more glossy the way Samsung does also

[22:29] I think in certain angles it's there but people will have have or the lack of it I should say uh and the larger screen screen

[22:41] how does the phone really really hold up when you open and look like when you start consuming a whole lot more video

[22:53] right So then what are you going to be looking for in terms of so Tom our take is this phone is going to sell as many units as

[23:05] months Uh eventually the two things you got to watch is is as people start using it you know in Q4 is does the the it right Samsung Samsung for example has had a lot of

[23:21] one but I do think the newer two if apple can just sell model that will alone drive about 25 billion of revenues in

[23:33] work very well u supply high constraint not demand constraint time. Were you surprised at the price point

[23:46] the Wall Street analysts were expecting I say this I think all the entry-level models the Pro Pro

[23:58] points are lower than what folks expected it to be right Uh what in fairness you look at it the higher to your models the 1 1 TB

[24:10] increases are happening So I think they're trying to keep the especially with with tradeins it's the higher level models

[24:22] Pro Pro Max side for example. Upcoming Upcoming catalysts uh software developers and what they're going to do with this

[24:34] you know know listen as as people have their have their matter a lot iPhone deliveries will come out you know as

[24:46] other part I'll say that you know what's missing in this in a fair amount about all this said is hey whatever I I agree

[24:58] going to sell as many as they can make completely Operations Coordination Center says Red

[25:11] except Saudi trying to target food in the Red Sea but they are trying to

[25:23] Saudis That drives oil prices up even more It just doesn't doesn't end right now That's quite

[25:35] exhausting All right Uh so oil right now now still stable around 104 though All right

[25:50] man So let's um let's go through just because because it is it is relevant to things here

[26:06] Um one will be be the Obamacare about

[26:21] Iran There's so much to talk about so we'll just keep it it simple All right

[26:35] Very well Okay oil Yeah it's still trending up 1046 Now uh as far as the

[26:50] the fees okay yeah we talked about that that Okay let's get this this cooking and then uh we'll talk

[27:05] There's so much much Obamacare Good old Obamacare You know I remember when Obamacare

[27:20] Obamacare passed it was 2010 and there were a The The thought was "Oh the government's getting all public exchange for a period of

[27:37] Uh and and I should also make a note that you would have had to just trying to think about this structurally You would have had

[27:49] bought uh through the portal So for eligibility eligibility purposes Uh so that would be bought through portal Uh or

[28:05] the market should say uh if you bought from an insurer directly uh uh the platform fees don't get charged which makes sense

[28:20] sense States wouldn't be included That's worth noting Or state run exchange

[28:35] is not not included Uh let's see see here And then of course what years to be be

[28:50] determined Okay What a a mess All All right So where is my White House

[29:05] fact sheet White House House fact sheet $500 Obamacare Got it All right So this was just issued within

[29:20] the last hour here here here All right here we go Let's summarize This is in

[29:36] to be to break this down as simply as possible So first yesterday we

[29:48] check to all adults That's as many as 270 million Americans if Republicans sweep sweep both the House

[30:00] dividends and tariff Uh I I think a lot of people are going to

[30:12] you're just trying to buy our vote." And people are going to not very likely but the bond market's not very very happy

[30:24] markets A lot more debt About 1.35ish trillion dollars of happens if you're going to do a big stimulative plan like that

[30:36] some more tax breaks maybe even the capital gains then then balloons into a multi-t trillion dollar package

[30:48] Obamacare refund is a little different So it's a little simplify it

[31:01] realized okay we're marketplace that the government's going to put

[31:13] website And this website we call a marketplace It makes it sound website right But basically it's a marketplace a website where

[31:25] could buy uh the you know what I buy the Kaiser man Whatever you was to put them all in one place to make

[31:41] where where subsidies plans There was no government option included in Obamacare

[31:53] in 2010 when it was passed Now what's interesting actually in debate back then I had debates about Obamacare So I I remember

[32:05] school But anyway what's interesting about this is that this platform would collect fees of between between 2.75 to as high as 3.1

[32:20] as like 3.7% Some of those fees Trump

[32:32] fees So this is how much was collected to run the website The 2021 and 2025 enrollment

[32:45] this platform marketplace

[32:57] it's a website it's software So that meant fees had ended up

[33:11] extra money that the government has access Now uh uh the Biden administration wanted to

[33:25] use this slush money to basically uh provided probably would have been like a

[33:42] around this channel but but uh would have probably have been contraceptives to states that aren't which is kind of a more

[33:54] distribution distribution of money uh especially in states religious that are not not supportive of that Okay that was

[34:06] dying And so that money's been you know Biden was trying to send to pee pee I'm

[34:18] entities and organizations for distribution purposes That money $500 million now So you got $500

[34:30] the very first thing that Donald Trump thinks of when uh he you know sees money sitting around is is how can I

[34:45] we could buy votes Don't get me wrong all the politicians do this You remember the Gavin Newsome stimulus relief

[35:00] people calling it relief checks they were inflation

[35:12] this is that's how you cause inflation and they're sending relief checks Anyway it's basically the same idea here

[35:24] slush slush money It should not affect the of money

[35:36] debt debt Now could they take this $500 million and just

[35:50] send it to pay off the the debt Yes But does that they're saying $500 checks We got $500 $500

[36:05] eligible for this money the drawing Hold on let me

[36:17] You had the orange ready to go It was meant to be All had to have been enrolled

[36:31] didn't qualify for the generally what the rule of thumb is If your income is too high

[36:43] the the marketplace and you pay that excess fee if you will exchanges are not included in this So states like California

[36:55] going to apply uh and there's a apply to what appear to be relatively

[37:07] Arkansas Florida Delaware New Hampshire Texas Wisconsin South Missouri up to about a total of 30 states that would be eligible

[37:19] per person for nearly 1 mill million million Americans in 30 it's not issuing debt but then we're also not paying off the

[37:31] expect to go out before the we're trying to buy your your vote but you know you get a

[37:43] Bush did that Who remembers remembers that George W Bush checks around I think it was 2009 Is it 2009 or

[37:55] 2008 It It must have been 2008 because uh Obama won November right Oh interesting to see when did

[38:12] checks Quick Google I got to know now February 2008 Yeah $300 to $600 Look at that for

[38:25] check My dad the check He's like "Wow the president just sent sent us

[38:37] Uh anyway I know know exactly where it was and have I don't know why but that is the very first stimulus check uh

[38:50] memory Is it grain like seared into my my mind Very weird But as the Biden administration in mind the Trump administration also

[39:07] interesting thing Like on one hand he's not being transparent continued those fees because they could have turned the dial

[39:19] all this money for for you This is Biden's stimulus." You know Trump is going to slice it as I'm the hero giving it it back

[39:31] gone through most of the details of this 2021 and uh 2025 Uh that's when we had that that 2.75

[39:45] to 3.5% uh fee Uh sorry enrollment doubled between 21 exchanges began to help first created after

[40:02] infrastructure the money really started acrewing postcoid as Obamacare you didn't receive which means you bought through

[40:14] marketplace and you didn't pay get a subsidy you would be you're on a state-run exchange it would not qualify although a

[40:26] later especially Gavin Newsome he does that all the time it's then you had to have made sure that you are not getting an

[40:38] So there you go That's the fact sheet broken down on the refunds and whether or not that would actually affect the

[40:50] points at 9.4% It's It's eighth of of

[41:02] that Now we got some Iran yapping to do There's a lot lot now All right Can

[41:15] consumers make any sense I don't need $100 or whatever I if I'm I'm diagnosed with cancer I need All right So the idea is

[41:30] the original original thesis was if you're too uh you know low income to afford the health insurance plans on the marketplace We will the

[41:45] basically send some of the money to the insurance company to were were

[41:57] Um framework uh that is getting

[42:11] video and so I you for bringing that that up Okay so let's see

[42:25] here What is what are these lines coming in The IMF says the are mounting Disinflation progress has stalled Oh man Dude not good dude None of it's

[42:40] moment Okay let me get this cooking cooking

[42:55] cooking Okay Bill McDermott from Service Now is coming on No way. And with the NFL season now underway sports customers from from predictions markets We're going to

[43:11] was a big big event in our S&P is down for a fourth consecutive day You see the

[43:23] Uh looking for its potentially highest weekly close since mentioned 5% almost We're closing in on

[43:36] the former director of the National Economic also the former president of Goldman Sachs and current vice

[43:48] good to be here on a day like with these with these rising be about these levels? Well I think the the Treasury yields

[44:00] the oil the oil rate market correlation is very high today I feeds into the general consumer mentality

[44:12] surprised at how resilient the consumer has been in the face of We've had this conversation many times I think the consumer in

[44:24] poorly If you actually poll poll consumers today on how they feel you actually look at the real data and you look at real wages

[44:36] executives on talking about credit cards and how well it's decent situation You know they're positive wage growth

[44:48] And I think we're going to continue continue to be in this fear of AI There's fear of oil prices There's there's fear of

[45:00] these things are driving consumer sentiment but they're so interesting Watch what they do What that not what they say

[45:12] self-reinforcing. Treasuries are watching oil Oil's rising The know we're seeing already 30-year around 7% where that

[45:24] impact The initial impact we've seen you know We've seen credit seen mortgage rates go

[45:36] Fed funds with with which is what the market That's a there's a real time reaction When the futures

[45:48] repric lend loans to their consumers almost instantaneously is a a continued negative effect on the economy as people try and

[46:00] they need to borrow money power goes down Look I think

[46:12] involved in the Treasury market I think they're concerned about inflationary but at the end of the day it makes our exports

[46:24] it it's very difficult to actually intervene in a market Um I would almost point to there's almost no case and

[46:36] Secretary is a very smart guy He knows it He's the market is the market and the market will find a natural

[46:48] he's he's impacting duration for some period of time that too I understand what he's trying to do I understand he's trying to

[47:00] Um and I understand the reason why he's doing that but at the he's he's got to keep issuing debt And unfortunately the the

[47:12] spend less money That's not going to happen. Aren't you you spending if I mean either with Congress or without Congress. Uh

[47:24] Um obviously necessity will breed some type of response but the first sort of focal point which is social social

[47:36] the problem We should just against them raising social security the cap on the social

[47:48] things that we could do in the social security system to Um so if you look at where we are are in debt and deficit you

[48:00] by not cut spending or not revamp the program We'll just we're not talking the president's not talking about

[48:12] increasing spending Here's what he said last night about this win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate

[48:24] tremendous economic success like in in history because of our tremendous strength and

[48:36] success economically I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in in the United States of America for $5,000. Is that possible? It's

[48:50] Congress But here here's here's the put this through

[49:02] they need a simple majority in both the House and the Senate will take credit for that he will tell them look I want this

[49:14] meet a bunch of opposition opposition from different places possible. Do you think that he can pay for it with tariff

[49:26] although I don't have current data that the Border Patrol's budget or sitting in their bank balances

[49:38] a trillion dollar payment out to to us. Yeah it'd be like 1.3 a three. Okay. Yes I mean what we're assuming tariff tariff

[49:50] is hard. It's a lot It's a lot of years. It's one false false swoop of collecting tariffs and assuming

[50:02] makes a lot of of assumptions but look can he get it through powerful way to get through. You know that pretty well. I I know

[50:14] the paper. It is kind of like a free ice cream pitch huh All because it's it's a lot

[50:26] Um so let's clean this up So we'll do a a Ron Uh we've got the close calls on the ships to cover We got the war lasts lasts forever Uh

[50:40] concern That's not good Uh let's see here Let's move some of this stuff Okay we have the updates out of Al Al Jazer

[50:55] Yemen the the maps We got to cover all that We've got Oh let's see here The inflation inflation shocks We've got

[51:10] that What's going on with these announcements We could probably start with with that

[51:25] Jeez man There is so try our best to

[51:37] right what's going on with

[51:51] Red Sea I'm going to break down what their target is what's safe and what's not safe We've got to

[52:03] about how Trump says the Iran War uh well his advisers were Iran War might end up up lasting throughout all of Donald

[52:15] are are talking about And then we'll also the

[52:27] just released a statement I'm going to read it to you the way inflation inflation expectations have risen but still remain

[52:39] while How long can that last They say the energy shock from pressures are mounting and progress on disinflation

[52:51] has stalled They say that liquidity problems are in parts of Africa That's reference to

[53:07] remain focused on price ability So So the ECB today expected to set up multiple interest rate

[53:21] holding on for a little potential that Trump's top top advisers are now quote unquote

[53:33] through the the end of Trump's term Let's take a look at a of this private discussions inside of the Trump cabinet and

[53:45] warning the war could last could

[53:57] military military tactics extending past inauguration day Wednesday that the war will end immediately after midterm

[54:09] it's going to be a short less than 60 day or 6 6 turned

[54:21] lot of people are nervous that Ukraine in 24 hours We'll see But anyway uh Donald Trump says

[54:33] any longer And it is true the economy in Iran is shrinking substantially It's expected to shrink to the tune of about 5.4%

[54:45] massive inflation their wages aren't keeping up food's getting The The regime facing

[54:57] folks in Israel like BB are facing elections Uh the regime hold on power in Iran At least that's my impression especially

[55:09] out pickaxe mountain more which is is what we expect to be the to reach We'll talk about that in just a moment But let's take

[55:21] return us to forever told from the inside inside that an economic siege via his naval

[55:33] sanctions program uh will take much more time than than it's you know we're not really

[55:46] force them into some form of attacked Uh which obviously helps send oil prices up And

[55:58] attempts by the Iranians to to strike warships In fact here you close calls with US warships Uh Iran Iran shows new appetite for

[56:10] one of these now maneuverable striking something like a US

[56:22] ability of the United States to launch attacks but also be the risk that if you strike an aircraft carrier carrying

[56:34] there's a good chance some Americans are going to get within the last last week indicating the conflict with

[56:46] point where the prospects for a a peace deal are very very hope is that that you know like can it really get much worse

[56:58] oh this war is going to last forever or you know through 2029 I guess it could and so that's where it's so hard or impossible

[57:10] situation situation is going to Reserve to hike rates response to

[57:22] war ends Right Right now we're pricing in a 67.6% chance of a predicated on CPI this morning or tomorrow morning We did get

[57:34] PPI that that came out on a core basis actually came in roughly headline number is just pretty rich though The headline

[57:46] expectations just isn't fight the uh oh oh inflation expectations or stable narrative

[57:58] is how long can they actually remain stable uh they talk here extending the MEU support the expeditionary unit support and

[58:10] what's problematic here is not just the squeeze on Iran going on in

[58:22] of the Mocha port Uh we don't know how that control of the relatively small

[58:36] town Uh and they do have this port port here that uh in the got a few things going on over here So

[58:52] of Hormuz Here Here you've got Lorac Island you've got Hormuz here Iran wants ships to go along the Iranian coast The

[59:04] secretly secretly smuggling ships along the Omani coast This To circumvent this issue Saudi Saudi Arabia is taking

[59:16] piping that oil east to the west to get to the Red Sea and then we could either

[59:28] into the Mediterranean right here Or or we could go south through the Red Sea and come out of the Babal Mandud straight

[59:40] international But

[59:52] ships that are not safe are Saudi ships That's because what the Saudis are doing is