TRUMP ANNOUNCES IRAN PEACE!! HORMUZ TO OPEN!

[00:02] Well, well, well, well, well, well. Holy

[00:07] smokes. It looks like that JP Morgan

[00:11] deal or announcement was on to

[00:13] something. This is really weird. And I

[00:15] think this is why you want to be

[00:17] subscribed to the channel. But

[00:18] yesterday, we literally talked about how

[00:21] JP Morgan had a piece that literally

[00:24] argued position for an imminent deal.

[00:28] Now, I presumed that was probably

[00:30] because the Pakistani delegation had

[00:32] just landed in Thrron. Uh, and they

[00:36] essentially argued by they said buy

[00:38] airports, which I I was wondering if

[00:40] they meant like the airlines and sell

[00:41] oil, but they actually even looked at

[00:44] insider trading bets or maybe not

[00:45] necessarily insider trading bets, but

[00:47] somebody making some big money bets,

[00:48] right? Uh, and they're like, "This is

[00:50] quite interesting. a massive options bet

[00:53] on Tuesday that would see a $129 million

[00:58] payout if Brent fell to $90 per barrel

[01:02] by Tuesday

[01:05] was placed. So, literally somebody on

[01:07] Tuesday placed a oneweek call option bet

[01:11] and they would stand to profit $129

[01:14] million if oil fell to $90 per barrel by

[01:18] Tuesday, the day after um Memorial Day.

[01:22] Well, here we are today. Donald Trump

[01:25] has just announced that an agreement

[01:27] with Iran has quote largely been

[01:30] negotiated and the straight of Hormuz is

[01:32] expected to reopen. Now, we'll believe

[01:37] it when we see it, but we have been

[01:39] seeing JP Morgan has also been arguing

[01:42] it that the blockade in Hormuz has not

[01:46] been fully enforced.

[01:48] See, there are signs that something is

[01:50] happening. The US Hormuz blockade is

[01:54] clearly not being enforced. And we just

[01:57] got a truth social post from Donald

[01:59] Trump. I'm in the Oval Office at the

[02:01] White House where we just had a very

[02:03] good call uh with the president of uh

[02:06] Saudi Arabia, the UAE. Uh you've got a

[02:10] bunch of other folks from Qatar in here.

[02:12] I mean, boy, he went through and listed

[02:14] from Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and

[02:19] uh well, I mean, dele negotiators uh

[02:22] from Iran all related to a memorandum of

[02:26] understanding regarding peace. an

[02:29] agreement has largely been negotiated

[02:31] subject to finalization which in

[02:33] fairness like every deal that Donald

[02:35] Trump does is like a concept of a plan

[02:39] and then it's sort of like it still has

[02:40] to be finalized by Congress or their

[02:42] leaders or this that or whatever right

[02:44] so like the market trades off the

[02:47] concept of the plan

[02:49] uh but anyway an agreement has largely

[02:51] been negotiated subject to finalization

[02:53] between the United States of America and

[02:55] Iran as well as various other countries

[02:57] as listed

[02:59] Separately, I had a call with BB of

[03:01] Israel which like likewise went very

[03:04] well. Final aspects and details of the

[03:06] deal are currently being discussed and

[03:08] will be announced shortly. In addition

[03:11] to many other elements of the agreement,

[03:13] the straight of Hormuz will be opened.

[03:16] Thank you for your attention to this

[03:18] matter. This is actually huge because it

[03:21] it means what we heard yesterday and

[03:24] again this is why you want to be

[03:25] subscribed to the channel. Yesterday we

[03:27] pointed out that JP Morgan had this

[03:29] piece arguing, hey, prepare for an

[03:32] imminent deal. Sell oil, buy airports.

[03:36] Again, I was a little confused by that

[03:37] whole, you know, by airports part, but

[03:39] whatever. The point is, they were right.

[03:42] Uh, and so what we have here is uh

[03:45] apparently uh this uh you know, catalyst

[03:48] that could actually potentially push uh

[03:52] a lot of our stock market to even

[03:54] greater all-time highs. Now, what I

[03:56] think we want to pay attention to this

[03:58] week is, first of all, obviously, we

[04:00] expect oil to come down sharply. And as

[04:03] oil comes down sharply, we're going to

[04:05] expect to see bonds, bond yields come

[04:08] down sharply. That's really, really

[04:10] important. In fact, I was just reading,

[04:12] where did I put it? I was just reading

[04:14] Oh. Oh, I threw it away. Uh, of course,

[04:16] I threw it away. I was literally just

[04:18] reading Barren and uh they've had a

[04:21] whole section in Barons about how bond

[04:23] yields are moving into the danger zone.

[04:26] Uh and I'm like ah well we're a deal

[04:28] away from bond yields collapsing. They

[04:31] talked about Nvidia needing a new big

[04:34] plan. They got to stop focusing on just

[04:36] the hyperscalers even though they keep

[04:38] getting more and more of their business

[04:39] from hyperscalers which is pretty

[04:41] remarkable. I think it's like 70. No,

[04:43] I'm sorry. 55% of their revenue is

[04:45] coming from um from the hyperscalers,

[04:48] right? And then Jensen's trying to like

[04:50] get everybody focused on um uh you know,

[04:52] oh well, smaller companies, Neoclouds,

[04:54] they're important, too. Not as Yeah,

[04:57] bond yields are heading towards the

[04:59] danger zone. See, I knew it was in here.

[05:01] So, like you literally have a lot of

[05:04] doom and gloom about how high bond

[05:07] yields have been going. And the big

[05:10] thing that we want to watch for now is

[05:12] bond yields escaping the danger zone.

[05:16] Now we could literally do the absolute

[05:18] opposite. See, if we get oil that

[05:21] actually crashes, which it probably

[05:23] will. It'll probably I don't think it'll

[05:24] go all the way down to like 60 even with

[05:26] the straightfor because it's still going

[05:28] to take some time to repair some of that

[05:29] damage and refill stock piles. Stock

[05:31] piles are like mega mega low right now.

[05:34] But I think we'll probably, you know,

[05:35] that whoever placed that call option

[05:37] that's going to be getting $123 million

[05:40] of profit because they happen to make a

[05:43] bet in a oneweek call option that's

[05:45] going to profit them over $100 million

[05:47] that, you know, a deal would be signed

[05:49] this weekend. Crazy. Um, certainly not

[05:52] insider information. I actually think

[05:54] they're right on their target that oil

[05:55] is likely to fall just below 90. I

[05:57] wouldn't be surprised if it's like 85 or

[05:59] 80 at the beginning of the week. But

[06:01] what that does, it means well what it

[06:04] does is it means that the top of bonds

[06:07] is where we've been saying. You've been

[06:09] watching the channel, you've been

[06:10] talking about or you've been listening

[06:12] to me say 457

[06:15] is the peak. Go away. 457 is the peak.

[06:19] And we've seen that, you know, four

[06:20] times here historically. We're about to

[06:23] set a new peak for this. So, you have to

[06:25] think what's probably going to do really

[06:27] well on Tuesday when the market reopens.

[06:30] Well, honestly, some consumer stocks

[06:32] could do really well, but also those

[06:33] interest rate sensitives. If you look at

[06:35] some of the companies that are really

[06:37] sensitive to interest rates, total crap.

[06:41] I mean, you've seen uh the mortgage

[06:43] codes get destroyed. You've seen some of

[06:45] the autos get destroyed. There are a lot

[06:47] of interest rate places uh or even

[06:49] housing related stocks, whether it's

[06:51] Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever. There

[06:53] are plenty of stocks you could think of.

[06:55] Ask AI about your favorite mortgage, you

[06:57] know, interest rate sensitive stocks.

[06:59] You don't have to ask me, but a lot of

[07:00] them have just gotten decimated through

[07:03] this extra surge of inflation. We just

[07:06] had bargain on Friday talk about, yeah,

[07:10] you know, I also am in favor of removing

[07:12] easing bias language and considering

[07:14] hikes. All of that now goes away, which

[07:18] is really, really bullish for the

[07:21] market. In fact, there was another thing

[07:23] in Barren here that I thought was really

[07:25] bullish. This one I saved on my desk.

[07:28] This was really cool. Uh, so take a look

[07:32] at this. A smarter a smart way to size

[07:36] up the labor market. See, this is why

[07:37] you got to read the newspaper, right?

[07:39] Uh, I'll let that come out. Smart way to

[07:41] size up the labor market. See this?

[07:43] Look, it's old black and white print.

[07:45] How pretty. Uh, okay. So it says here,

[07:49] one way you can historically tell how

[07:51] strong the labor market is is by

[07:54] comparing your prime age worker, the

[07:56] worker between 35 to 44 and comparing

[08:00] that to the broader unemployment rate.

[08:03] uh and if the 35 to 30 or uh 35 to 44

[08:08] increases by 1 percentage point overall

[08:11] unemployment rate follows a month and 3

[08:14] months later uh 3 months later you see

[08:16] this stair stepping up. The same thing

[08:18] happens in reverse. Well right now the

[08:21] 35 to 44 range is sitting at just 3.1%

[08:25] unemployment which is way lower than the

[08:27] official 4.3% we have. So it's actually

[08:29] a bullish signal. So now here are the

[08:32] things that you want to think about uh

[08:34] on Tuesday. Okay, on Tuesday uh with

[08:38] Hormuz opening or concept of opening,

[08:41] right? Okay. Uh oil down probably to 80

[08:46] to 85. Uh the uh insider Dbag uh who's

[08:53] profiting 127 mil on uh oil options

[08:58] betting uh oil will drop to uh 90 uh by

[09:05] uh May 26 with a oneweek call option.

[09:09] has plenty of money to join the alpha

[09:12] membership at meetke.com. Coupon expires

[09:17] May 26th, which is actually the exact

[09:20] same date their option expires.

[09:22] Okay, but you already know about that.

[09:24] Uh but also in addition to oil falling,

[09:27] you have to think inflation expectations

[09:30] will come down with that. Okay, that

[09:33] means fears of a rate uh which I I never

[09:37] thought was going to happen and I've

[09:38] said that in many videos. Fears of a

[09:40] rate hike uh are going to diminish

[09:43] rapidly uh rapidly, you know, bullish

[09:47] for stocks, right?

[09:49] uh and uh interest rate sensitives uh

[09:53] rate sensitive stocks you know housing

[09:56] related

[09:57] uh certain autos certain uh durables

[10:02] right should do well.

[10:05] Uh what that does that actually broadens

[10:09] the uh stock market's breadth which is

[10:13] literally the problem we've had right

[10:16] it's only been hardware stocks so this

[10:19] announcement that the straight of form

[10:21] moves is expected to reopen uh that

[10:25] Donald Trump has a deal an agreement uh

[10:29] that is mostly finished with just the

[10:32] final details currently being discussed

[10:34] discussed and will be announced shortly

[10:37] and BB of Israel is on board and that

[10:40] the agreement is largely done basically

[10:43] is really really good. It's very

[10:46] bullish. Right? Again, in my opinion, it

[10:49] drives oil down. It drives inflation

[10:51] expectations down. It kills the fear of

[10:55] a rate hike. It boosts interest rate

[10:58] stocks. It broadens the stock market's

[11:01] breadth, which has been horribly narrow,

[11:04] right? Those have been the problems that

[11:05] we have. All the while, we still have

[11:08] the labor market uh recovering from the

[11:13] hell of Q4. Like, if you were watching

[11:15] the labor market numbers in Q4,

[11:17] especially during the shutdown, you were

[11:19] probably getting nervous. You're like,

[11:21] crap, you know, this doesn't look good.

[11:23] This is a labor market that's about to

[11:25] ghoul speed and it's going to go, you

[11:27] know, here's the line and it's going to

[11:29] smash right through that break even

[11:30] employment line and all of a sudden

[11:32] we're going to be moving towards a

[11:34] recessionary trajectory. But what we've

[11:36] actually seen is we've stabilized at the

[11:38] line and we've sort of bounced off of it

[11:40] which is crazy. But Tuesday morning as

[11:43] well, we'll get the uh weekly ADP

[11:45] numbers. So I'll write that down as

[11:46] well. weekly ADP on Tuesday morning uh

[11:50] for the week ending May 9 should be out

[11:54] uh at 5:15 a.m. IMO I think it's 515 or

[11:58] 530 in my opinion that's uh going to be

[12:02] strong you know 30 to 40k per week which

[12:05] is very strong relative to recent

[12:07] history uh and that should also be

[12:10] should also be a bullish catalyst so

[12:13] we're actually loaded up at the moment

[12:15] with the potential for really good uh

[12:18] bullish catalysts which is very exciting

[12:22] um so I'm I'm I I think this is

[12:25] fantastic Now, um, overall, I'm curious

[12:30] to see what all of the very details of

[12:32] this deal are. We don't actually know

[12:34] yet what's going to happen with that

[12:36] enriched uranium. How similar is this

[12:38] going to end up being to the Obama deal,

[12:41] the Iran nuclear deal, uh, essent, you

[12:43] know, of of, um, 2015 that, uh, Donald

[12:47] Trump, you know, hated on for years

[12:49] during every election campaign. But, uh,

[12:52] here's the Wall Street Journal's piece

[12:54] on this. We are near the finalization

[12:57] uh of a deal.

[13:00] Uh let's see. Trump uh let's see here.

[13:04] Trump said the PAX terms are are largely

[13:06] negotiated would be revealed shortly.

[13:09] The agreement, if completed, wouldn't

[13:10] achieve Trump's main goal of preventing

[13:13] Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear

[13:15] weapon, but it would prevent a restart

[13:18] of the war in the Middle East. Right?

[13:20] Nobody really wants that right now. So,

[13:23] you know, it's somewhat a failure,

[13:26] right? Because the purpose of the entire

[13:28] conflict was to prevent Iran from ever

[13:31] having a nuclear weapon, and here we are

[13:34] failing to do exactly that. Uh, we're

[13:36] just trying to prevent going back to

[13:38] war. Got it. Uh, an agreement largely

[13:42] negotiated is to be finalized. Trump has

[13:44] told aids and counterparts that he

[13:46] reserves the right to resume attacks on

[13:48] Iran should tan fail to abide by the

[13:50] accord. He says this all the time, but

[13:53] every time he says this, he just

[13:55] literally turns around and tacos on

[13:56] himself. Like, we have bet on basically

[14:00] every single taco since uh the beginning

[14:03] of April. I said, "This is going to be

[14:04] the most frustrating and hated rally."

[14:07] Uh we said basically every Tuesday,

[14:09] anytime Trump has made a threat, he's

[14:11] just going to end up talking tacoing

[14:13] again. And I think I've had too many

[14:15] tacos to count over the last uh eight

[14:17] weeks. But it's been fantastic for the

[14:19] overall market. the index level and

[14:22] hardware. Obviously, there are plenty of

[14:24] individual stocks still in the software

[14:26] sector or other sectors like housing or

[14:28] rate sensitives that are not doing as

[14:30] well, but they actually might get a

[14:32] boost now following this agreement. Uh

[14:34] let's see what else the um Wall Street

[14:36] Journal here has to say. There only six

[14:39] comments. Okay, let's uh let's add a

[14:42] comment here. Moon.

[14:45] All right, there we go. Oh, it went

[14:48] through. Okay, cool.

[14:50] uh complete amateur hour from the

[14:52] Americans, all that firepower and no

[14:55] brains or strategy. The Iranians emerge

[14:57] far stronger from this and the US is

[15:00] significantly weakened. Well, I don't

[15:02] necessarily disagree with that comment.

[15:04] I know that sounds really like

[15:05] anti-American and aggressive, but I

[15:08] actually don't really disagree with them

[15:10] because we kind of Donald Trump kind of

[15:13] got humbled with how much our military

[15:17] could do, right? He kind of got big ego

[15:19] following Venezuela and then he tries

[15:21] that in Iran and oh crap Iran gets

[15:25] something they didn't have before the

[15:27] right to toll hormuz and split those

[15:29] profits with Qatar uh and they didn't

[15:31] give up any of their nuclear dust the

[15:33] highlyenriched uranium right in addition

[15:35] to that you've actually had threats that

[15:38] Donald Trump might do a similar thing in

[15:40] Cuba but what we've seen recently is

[15:42] that the United States has sent uh the

[15:45] the I think either the head or the

[15:46] co-head of the Central Intelligence

[15:48] Agency to Cuba to start preemptively

[15:51] negotiating with the Cubits. Uh Cuba, I

[15:54] think it was a Wall Street Journal

[15:55] article. Trump,

[15:58] let me see if I could find the article

[15:59] on it. Uh might have been I mean this

[16:02] was this was a couple couple of uh weeks

[16:05] ago, so I might not quickly be able to

[16:06] find it, but anyway. Uh see, there it

[16:08] is. C yeah, it was a couple of weeks

[16:10] ago. It was May 14th. Reuters, CIA chief

[16:13] visits Cuba as Trump urges sweeping

[16:17] changes. You don't send your CIA

[16:20] director or or chief or whatever you

[16:22] want to call him to Cuba if you're about

[16:24] to bomb them. CIA director John

[16:27] Radcliffe on Thursday delivered a

[16:28] message from President Trump uh to Cuban

[16:31] officials in Havana that the US would

[16:33] seriously engage with the island's

[16:35] government on economic and security

[16:36] issues if fundamental changes took

[16:38] place. And so in other words, they're

[16:40] trying to use the threat of military

[16:43] action and they're trying to use

[16:45] diplomacy beforehand.

[16:47] Cuba says it's ready to negotiate. Cuba

[16:50] is open to changes to its economy and

[16:52] government and eager to negotiate with

[16:54] the United States, but does not believe

[16:56] that the United States is negotiating in

[16:58] good faith. Well, because that's what

[16:59] they did with Iran, right? Oh, yeah.

[17:01] We're talking to Iran. We're talking to

[17:03] Iran. Things are going good. Things are

[17:04] going good. We just bombed them. You

[17:06] know, that's the same thing that

[17:07] happened under Operation Midnight Hammer

[17:09] last summer. We're talking to them. It's

[17:11] going great. It's going great. It's

[17:12] going great. And we just bombed them.

[17:14] Same exact thing as we had this

[17:16] February. So, I don't really blame the

[17:18] Cubans for being skeptical here. But in

[17:20] fairness, in response to this person's

[17:23] comment, they're obviously not terribly

[17:25] wrong, in my opinion, at least given

[17:27] that the United States has kind of been

[17:30] humbled a little bit, at least uh in

[17:32] being able to bully a country that's

[17:34] significantly smaller into submission

[17:36] because we didn't really win everything

[17:37] here. If anything, Iran, while they took

[17:40] a lot of beating and and damage from

[17:42] their military infrastructure from that

[17:44] point of view, you know, they might be

[17:46] up on the Hormuz deal. So, it's going to

[17:48] be really interesting to see what the

[17:49] details are. Uh, but anyway, so, um,

[17:53] we'll see what happens with Cuba. I

[17:56] think what's I mean, you've even got

[17:57] this. US surveillance flights off the

[17:59] coast of Cuba. More than 20 surveillance

[18:01] flights, have been tracked since

[18:03] February. US military aircraft,

[18:05] including both drones and crude

[18:07] surveillance planes, have been

[18:08] conducting intelligence gathering and

[18:10] recon flights around Cuba since February

[18:13] as Donald Trump tries to ramp up

[18:15] pressure on the communists. So I find

[18:17] that very interesting. So we'll see how

[18:19] that develops. But again, broadly now,

[18:22] if we do get Hormuz uh reopened here, uh

[18:26] even if it's just the hope that okay,

[18:28] it's going to get reopened very soon,

[18:29] which is the announcement here from

[18:31] Donald Trump, right? Uh if you're just

[18:33] now uh tuning in or you fast forwarded

[18:35] in the video or whatever, Donald Trump

[18:37] announcing that we essentially have a

[18:39] peace agreement called a memorandum of

[18:42] understanding regarding peace between

[18:44] the United States, Iran and other

[18:46] countries in the Middle East. The

[18:47] agreement has largely been negotiated

[18:49] subject to finalization which again is

[18:51] basically every single deal that Trump

[18:52] has ever done. You know like you realize

[18:55] that we have a Chinese trade deal with

[18:57] well China, right? US and China have a

[18:59] trade deal. That trade deal is not

[19:01] technically final. It's just a one-year

[19:05] temporary deal that expires this

[19:07] November. And in this last visit where

[19:09] Trump went to China, they didn't even

[19:11] extend it. That was one of the big

[19:13] things that a lot of people thought

[19:15] would happen going to China. They I mean

[19:17] there were people like, "Oh, FSD is

[19:19] going to get approval with Tesla.

[19:21] Jensen's going to be able to sell H200s.

[19:24] There's going to be an extension of the

[19:25] tariff truce between the United States

[19:27] and China." None of that happened. The

[19:30] only thing we really got was a small

[19:31] beef and soy deal, which doesn't even

[19:34] bring us back to the numbers where we

[19:35] were before Donald Trump's tariff

[19:37] disaster. So Donald Trump is cheering

[19:40] that, you know, soybean purchases by

[19:42] China from the United States were like

[19:43] here and then they fell to here and

[19:45] Donald Trump is cheering that they've

[19:47] gone to here. So, so it's kind of like,

[19:49] you know, you're cheering it's gone up a

[19:51] little bit off the bottom, but you did

[19:52] kind of lead it to plummet. So point is

[19:56] that's normal actually that Donald Trump

[19:58] doesn't really finalize these deals yet.

[20:01] Uh and so hence the market is in my

[20:04] opinion is going to rally off of this a

[20:07] lot. So, uh, let's take a look. And

[20:10] which is also really remarkable because

[20:12] again, this is what, uh, we talked about

[20:14] yesterday in the video where we said,

[20:16] "Hey, a deal is about to get reached."

[20:18] And we talked about this JP Morgan piece

[20:20] where JP Morgan is pointing out that

[20:22] somebody, if oil stands to fall to $90

[20:25] by Tuesday, which is, I think, exactly

[20:27] what's going to happen, somebody's going

[20:28] to make a $129 million payout. Now, we

[20:32] should probably like investigate who

[20:34] those people are. But the problem is

[20:36] you're no longer allowed to investigate

[20:37] people, I guess, inside the Trump

[20:39] family, including Baron Trump. So, some

[20:41] people are just going to be getting away

[20:43] with a big boat, and nobody's going to

[20:45] be able to say anything because

[20:46] apparently presidents now have immunity.

[20:48] Anyway, this is going to be really

[20:50] interesting because I have a price

[20:52] target that I set at the beginning of

[20:55] the month. Uh, and uh, it might have

[20:58] been late April because we were like in

[21:00] the 680 range or something. I feel like

[21:02] somewhere in there. I can't remember

[21:03] exactly where we were, but we have a

[21:04] price target for the NASDAQ 100 of 725

[21:09] uh, by the end of May. And uh, I'm I'm

[21:13] sort of giving away some alpha over

[21:14] here, but I actually think we're going

[21:16] to boom right through that because, you

[21:19] know, I expect we'll go green on Tuesday

[21:22] on the back of this deal if it actually

[21:24] comes. We'll probably be green. I We

[21:26] only need to be green by about 1% and

[21:29] we'll be at 725. We might honestly get

[21:32] all the way up to like 733. We could be

[21:34] up as much as, you know, 2% uh which

[21:37] would be somewhere right around 733 on

[21:39] the NASDAQ 100 as soon as Tuesday, which

[21:42] is pretty remarkable. Uh and a lot of

[21:44] that again is going to be driven by this

[21:47] decline in estimates for rate hikes. So

[21:51] remember, if you jump over to the

[21:53] futures to see what futures traders are

[21:55] doing, and I've been saying this on the

[21:56] channel, this isn't a big secret. This

[21:57] isn't like a you have to join the me

[21:59] Kevin courses to to to know this. I

[22:02] think Kevin Walsh is going to be an

[22:03] anchor to interest rates. While it's

[22:05] clear he's not going to be able to cut

[22:07] yet, he's going to be an anchor and

[22:10] likely keep rates stable rather than

[22:13] force them up because there are some

[22:16] people at the Fed clamoring for them to

[22:18] go up. And that has led futures traders

[22:20] to actually price in an over 66%

[22:25] chance of a rate hike come the end of

[22:28] the year. Now that's pretty crazy

[22:31] because I don't think any of that is

[22:33] accurate which is really bullish. So the

[22:36] way that works is if the market is being

[22:38] more bearish than you and if you are

[22:41] correct that the market is being too

[22:43] bearish, then you're going to get even

[22:45] more bears that come off the sideline

[22:47] and turn into buyers. In fact, I was

[22:50] just reading that shorts on the triple

[22:53] leveraged I can't remember what it was.

[22:55] Let me see. I I actually I have it right

[22:57] here. Sorry. I wasn't going to go live,

[23:00] so I'm a little less prepared than usual

[23:03] because I wasn't going to go live, but

[23:06] I did save this on my iPad because

[23:08] that's just what I do. It's Saturday,

[23:10] you know, what a great day to sit around

[23:11] and read and catch up on what Wall

[23:13] Street is thinking. But somewhere around

[23:15] here, there is uh a chart of

[23:20] short positioning. Got it. The 3x bear

[23:25] semiconductor

[23:27] ETF, the direction daily. Uh I wonder

[23:32] what the ticker is for that. Let me just

[23:33] pull that ticker really quick. So that

[23:35] is the uh direction daily semiconductor

[23:40] 3x ETF bear. So that is

[23:46] socks S. Oh, I should have known cuz I

[23:48] know Soxel, you know, we've been uh

[23:50] we've been arguing that Sockil was a

[23:52] great play since the beginning of April.

[23:53] Uh but Socks S is the bare version. So,

[23:56] the bare version uh has had this insane

[24:00] volume uh volume that has skyrocketed in

[24:05] May. So, more recently, you know how

[24:07] we've been seeing a little bit more

[24:08] volatility like Nvidia's kind of been

[24:10] getting stuck. A lot of this could be

[24:13] driven by some of this 3x leveraged

[24:16] positioning, which usually shows up at

[24:18] the end of the day where wow, more

[24:20] volume's coming in. I guess we have to

[24:21] go short more Nvidia, right, with

[24:23] options or whatever. And then you get

[24:24] hedging from from the market makers and

[24:26] that blah blah blah blah. Uh let me put

[24:27] it up on screen so you could actually

[24:29] see the chart. There we go. Uh so here's

[24:31] the actual chart. Uh and you can see

[24:34] here this is the Socks S uh ETF and uh

[24:39] that is you can see the volume here. Get

[24:42] my little pencil over here. All right.

[24:46] So

[24:47] this is the Socks S ticker. And I mean

[24:50] look at the volume since the beginning

[24:52] of April. It's just this is massive

[24:55] massive volume. Now, in fairness, you

[24:57] know, uh semiconductors have been going

[24:59] up. So, you sometimes you well, it's

[25:00] actually it's dollar volume. Is it

[25:03] dollar volume or share volume? Well,

[25:04] they don't actually say cuz if the share

[25:07] price is going down, obviously the the

[25:09] uh actual underlying volume would go up

[25:12] uh because you'd be trading more shares.

[25:14] But anyway, regardless, some of those

[25:17] people are going to get absolutely

[25:19] smoked when the market opens up on

[25:21] Tuesday would be my anticipation because

[25:23] I I think this will likely end up being

[25:25] a pretty broad uh bounce if we do end up

[25:28] confirming this deal on Tuesday or

[25:30] between now and Tuesday, which is very

[25:32] exciting. Uh I would be looking some

[25:35] other things I'd be looking for. It'd be

[25:37] nice if we could actually get uh Nvidia

[25:39] to break 227. It's a really struggle to

[25:42] break 227. Uh, but that would be great

[25:44] because that could help you keep memory

[25:45] going. Uh, if Nvidia goes up, that

[25:47] should help ARM continue its rally

[25:49] because ARM licenses to Nvidia, the ARM

[25:54] technology uh, for their CPUs, which we

[25:57] know CPUs have been blowing up. House

[25:59] hack, now known as Reinvest because we

[26:01] reinvest profits from software into real

[26:04] estate, right? Reinvest

[26:06] and a little bit into stocks. Um, house

[26:09] hack has a lot of CPUs and so we see it

[26:12] and I mention this all the time. It's

[26:13] not really a secret but it's because

[26:14] we're building out multiple different AI

[26:16] software and we need more CPUs than we

[26:18] need GPUs and we've seen that transition

[26:20] since March. So I I feel like I'm part

[26:22] of that. Uh, but my the nice thing is it

[26:25] helps me also be able to share that with

[26:27] you and we can see okay well it makes

[26:29] sense why CPU makers are doing quite

[26:31] well right now. Uh, and AMD has been a

[26:33] fantastic CPU beneficiary of this. So,

[26:36] broadly and just to bottom line it all

[26:38] here, I wouldn't be surprised again that

[26:40] this it's actually $129 million call

[26:43] option uh profit tier here uh will win

[26:46] bigly as oil falls below 90. I do think

[26:49] oil Brent will probably go down to the

[26:51] 80 to85 range if we actually get this

[26:53] deal struck uh on a hormuz reopening. Uh

[26:57] that person with the crazy insider trade

[26:59] call option, I called him the dbag

[27:01] because I think insider trading is

[27:02] scummy but you know it makes people

[27:04] money. um this person or or company or

[27:08] whatever, their call option expires the

[27:10] same day that our uh Memorial Day coupon

[27:13] code ends for the alpha membership over

[27:15] at mekevin.com. Remember, you get all of

[27:17] the uh insights in terms of the alpha

[27:20] reports every morning, all the courses

[27:22] on building your wealth, tax benefits,

[27:24] insurance, write offs, strategies for

[27:26] sales, you name it. Uh but also our

[27:28] course member live streams every day as

[27:30] well as alerts. You can see that at

[27:31] me.com. Uh I think inflation

[27:33] expectations which just peaked on Friday

[27:36] on the University of Michigan sentiment

[27:38] survey will come down. Uh and fears of a

[27:41] rate hike which we just saw on the CME

[27:43] futures. Those will diminish rapidly.

[27:46] We'll go right back to you know not

[27:48] pricing in rate cuts for this year which

[27:50] is where we should be and interest rate

[27:52] sensitive stocks should have a field day

[27:54] an absolute field day over this. uh like

[27:58] you could probably honestly get like two

[28:00] to four week call options on some of the

[28:02] interest rate sensitives and do really

[28:05] freaking well over the next few weeks.

[28:07] Uh but I do think this actually has the

[28:09] potential of broadening the stock

[28:11] market's breath, which if you've been

[28:12] paying attention over the last week,

[28:14] I've been calling that we need to see

[28:16] the indices hit higher levels. We need

[28:19] breath to expand. This is exactly what

[28:21] would make it happen. And before the

[28:24] market opens on Tuesday, we're going to

[28:26] review it in the course member liveream

[28:27] and the alpha membership. So you'll know

[28:29] if you're part of the alpha membership,

[28:30] you won't forget about it because it'll

[28:31] be the first thing I say in it what the

[28:33] ADP result was that morning, that weekly

[28:36] data, which is very very important. So

[28:38] uh overall, uh this is uh this is uh

[28:41] this is quite exciting. Uh I do uh so

[28:44] there's a comment here. Ron says they're

[28:46] still reviewing the proposal. Of course,

[28:48] but we actually had notes. Uh hold on

[28:51] here. There's a literally an update

[28:52] coming out right now. Iran far says

[28:54] straight of Hormuz would remain under

[28:56] Iran's management. Okay, so this is this

[29:00] is where it's very common when the deals

[29:02] aren't like final yet and you're still

[29:05] like, you know, with Donald Trump's

[29:06] concept of a plan where Donald Trump

[29:08] gets excited to announce deals. What you

[29:10] have to remember is

[29:13] Donald Trump does not want Iran to get

[29:15] any money from the straight of Hormuse.

[29:18] But Qatar and Iran have regularly been

[29:23] talking about tolling the straight of

[29:25] Hormuz as a solution.

[29:28] I would expect that over time Donald

[29:31] Trump is likely

[29:34] uh to accept it to avoid going into some

[29:38] form of war. That could be a a you know

[29:41] lingering issue. Maybe Trump sanctions

[29:43] them. Maybe there's some issues. But I

[29:46] think you get the straight of who's open

[29:47] again. You get some kind of maybe

[29:49] tariffs against Iran but not back to

[29:52] war. Take a look at this. Uh Iran and

[29:55] Oman in talks over straight of Hormuse

[29:58] ship payment system. This was actually

[30:00] posted yesterday. Uh Iran has actually

[30:02] two days ago. Iran has discussed

[30:04] partnering with the Gulf state of Oman,

[30:06] an American ally in a system charging

[30:08] fees for vessels passing through the

[30:10] straight of Hormuz, ignoring the Trump's

[30:13] uh the Trump administration's demands

[30:16] against demands for payment to pass

[30:18] through. It's unclear if anything

[30:20] concrete will come out of it. Blah blah

[30:21] blah blah blah. Point is,

[30:24] yes, there could be little loose ends.

[30:27] There are always little loose ends and

[30:29] each side's going to be like, well, it's

[30:30] not perfect yet. It's not perfect yet.

[30:32] But this is this is all in line with

[30:34] Taco. This is all in line with things

[30:37] improving. Hopefully, we get uh a

[30:39] continuation of this great news uh

[30:42] between now and Tuesday and then we can

[30:44] figure out some kind of long-term

[30:46] solutions after that. But honestly, I

[30:48] think this this payment system, this

[30:50] tolling system, that's a mop-up issue.

[30:52] It's not a critical issue. It's a mop-up

[30:55] issue. Uh so, uh yeah, I'm not too uh

[30:59] too terribly concerned about that. Uh,

[31:01] so we'll see what happens. Obviously,

[31:02] I'll keep you updated. Subscribe on the

[31:04] channel. You know, I just popped out of

[31:06] nowhere and went live to cover this

[31:08] breaking news. Uh, but I like doing

[31:10] that. So, make sure you subscribe uh if

[31:11] you want more of that. Obviously, join

[31:13] us over in the uh Meet Kevin membership

[31:16] if you want to be part of it there. Uh,

[31:18] you get me for usually 40 I'd probably

[31:21] say 40 to 50 minutes on average every um

[31:24] day the market is open. Uh, and so shout

[31:27] out to those of you who have recently

[31:29] joined. Uh, Da Davver, thanks for

[31:33] joining. Burl, Trevor, Edward, Steven,

[31:36] No Dominic Michael Neil Zaffron

[31:39] Christopher, Joshua, James, Lucas. Thank

[31:41] you all so very much for joining uh the

[31:43] Meet Kevin Alpha membership here

[31:45] recently. Look forward to seeing a lot

[31:46] more of you there. And um, have a

[31:48] wonderful weekend everybody and a great

[31:50] Memorial Day. We'll see you all soon.

[31:51] Goodbye and good luck.