The MACD Trap: Why 90% of Beginners Fail
45sHigh relatability for novice traders, exposes common mistake, and promises a solution.
▶ Play Clip"Solid content that delivers on the strategy, but the 'pays the rent' promise is oversold and the video has some filler."
This video introduces the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator and a professional 'uncrossing' strategy designed to help traders enter at the end of pullbacks rather than late. The hosts, Lis and Ricardo, explain the three components of MACD, demonstrate how to set up the strategy on a chart, and emphasize the importance of risk management and using a 200-period moving average as a trend filter.
The hosts introduce the MACD indicator, noting that about 90% of beginners use it incorrectly, entering trades late. They promise to show how to use it as a trend-detecting machine with an uncross strategy.
MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. It has three main components: the MACD line (fast, difference between 12 and 26 period averages), the signal line (slow, average of the MACD line), and the histogram (bars measuring distance between the fast line and signal line).
The classic mistake is thinking that a simple upward cross means buy and a downward cross means sell. This leads to getting stopped out repeatedly, as the indicator is often late.
The first step is to add a 200-period moving average (arithmetic mean) to the chart. If the price is above the 200 MA, only consider buying; if below, only consider selling.
Insert the MACD indicator. The host prefers to color the histogram green and red for clarity. Green bars indicate an upward trend, and when they start descending, it signals a potential pullback.
The main signal is the 'uncross'. Wait for the MACD line to cross below the signal line, then immediately cross back above. This intersection is the entry signal, indicating the pullback is ending and strength is returning.
Place the stop loss just below the pullback low. The take profit is set at a 1:1 risk-reward ratio (e.g., if stop is 533 points, take profit is also 533 points).
The host shows a trade that would have been profitable but was filtered out because the price was below the 200 MA. This illustrates that the filter protects against losses, even if it misses some wins.
A second example is shown where the price is above the 200 MA, the histogram points up, and the uncross signal triggers a buy. The trade hits the 520-point target perfectly.
The strategy is summarized: wait for the intersection, move off the line, then go all in. The host emphasizes that no strategy is 100% effective and that risk management is key, recommending never risking more than 1% of your account per trade.
The video concludes that the MACD uncross strategy, combined with a 200-period MA filter, is a powerful tool for entering trades at the end of pullbacks. However, the hosts stress that risk management is more important than any setup, and no strategy guarantees success.
What does MACD stand for?
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
00:59
What are the three main components of MACD?
The MACD line, the signal line, and the histogram.
00:59
What is the purpose of the 200-period moving average in this strategy?
It acts as a trend filter: if price is above, only consider buying; if below, only consider selling.
02:28
What is the 'uncross' signal in this strategy?
When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, then immediately crosses back above, indicating the end of a pullback.
03:52
What is the recommended risk per trade according to the host?
Never risk more than 1% of your account per trade.
09:14
What is the recommended take profit ratio in this strategy?
A 1:1 risk-reward ratio, meaning the take profit is equal to the stop loss distance.
05:17
90% of Beginners Use MACD Incorrectly
This statistic sets the stage for the value of the video, highlighting a common pitfall.
00:16200 MA as Trend Filter
This is a key technique that adds a directional bias, improving the strategy's reliability.
02:28The Uncross Signal
The core of the strategy, it provides a precise entry point at the end of a pullback.
03:52Risk Management is Key
The host emphasizes that risk management is more important than any setup, a fundamental principle for traders.
09:14[00:02] time to open the manual. I am Lis. This is Ricardo, and if your chart looks like a plate of spaghetti with so many indicators crossing up and down, you don't know whether to buy or sell at all.
[00:16] And today we're going to introduce the MCD cross-over , the great favorite of All Street, but which unfortunately approximately 90% of beginners end up using incorrectly, entering late and serving as small fry
[00:31] for the big players. And we're going to show you how this indicator is a trend-detecting machine. And especially with our McN uncrossing strategy , you'll learn how to enter at the end of the pullback before everyone else
[00:44] . Let's go to the video. Call it a jingle. 're talking about. We're talking about the MAC, which stands for Moving Rate
[00:59] Convergence Divergence, or in other words, the dance of the moving averages, where they move closer together wanted to. And it has three main components. Yeah, imagine a race. We have the MAC line, it's the fast one, it's the difference
[01:14] between two averages, usually the average of 12 and the average of 26. And it's the beater, it's the one that runs in front. The signal line is the slow one; it's the average of the McNG line itself. She was like her grandfather on a walk. He is slow, but he
[01:28] knows where he is going. The histogram, on the other hand, consists of those little bars; they measure the distance between the fast line and beyond. If the bars are growing, it's growing and gaining strength. If they are decreasing, then it's the opposite, right?
[01:41] If MACD were a relationship, the signal line would be like that creamy girl who takes 3 hours to get ready, but when she's finally ready you say: "Wow, she's going to look amazing and then there's a date tonight ." And the classic mistake is thinking, "If it
[01:56] crosses upwards, I buy; if it crosses downwards, I sell." Congratulations, you've just discovered the incredible strategy to turn R$1,000 into R$10,000 in a short turn R$1,000 into R$10,000 in a short time.
[02:13] cross more than a sideline on final day. You're going to get stopped out 15 times in a row. The secret isn't what MCD does, but where he does it. And this is where our professional mean-crossing strategy works and begins. Let's move on to the
[02:28] practical part. With the chart open, let's set the strategy. So, the first step is for us to enter an average of 200, because it will tell us whether we're going to buy or look at selling. So, to start off, I
[02:42] sell; I prefer to only make buying transactions, OK? So, right-click, buying transactions, OK? So, right-click, indicators, moving average, and let's enter indicators, moving average, and let's enter the 200-period moving average, OK? It's the arithmetic mean,
[02:56] okay? Just so you know. And I'm going to make it a little bit thicker, okay? It's already going to do? If the asset's value is above the 200-day moving average, we'll only consider buying. If the asset's value is below market value, we'll only consider
[03:12] selling, OK? So, let's go. So, first step, average. Next step, let's insert the famous Mac, shall we? So, MacD,
[03:24] insert. Well, I also like to include a McDonald's coloring rule prefer to visualize it in green and red, right? Beauty? With the MACD active, it's all green with these nice little bars here, which means it
[03:39] indicates an upward trend, then yes, we'll raise our second alert. And along with that second alert, when it starts descending, meaning losing strength, that's when we activate the main alert, already anticipating a pullback, right?
[03:52] And the third step is actually the uncrossing. So, for something to uncross, it needs to cross first, right? So, we can see here if our MAC line is above, right? If it's green and crosses our nine-period moving average
[04:07] , crossing it downwards, a red line will become clear, right? So what are uncrossing. So it crossed here from top to bottom and then immediately from bottom to
[04:19] top. When that intersection occurs, that's our entry signal. In this case, our entry signal would be at this point, which is right after the candle that crossed, or during the candle itself, right? The graph is currently frozen, but
[04:35] during Kon, if it uncrosses, you can enter the game at the moment that crossover occurs. So, just to recap, the price is above the average of 200, is that okay? That's already a sign that I'm going to buy. Well, the signal on the histogram, it
[04:49] lost strength, but it's regaining it again. Beauty? Second signal. And the third sign, which is the main one, is the uncrossing. Then, he crossed once down, he crossed up. Now that's our signal. Why? Because he made the
[05:02] pullback, then he lost momentum, right, in the trend. He's recovering a little bit here, and then when he uncrosses his legs, it's because he's regained strength, and that's when it's time for us to step in. So, with that, the stop loss is down there, right, right here,
[05:17] and the stop gain is one to one. If we see that the stop is at 533, our take profit will also be at 533. So let's look at this. look at this. 533 was more or less in this region here.
[05:31] 533 was more or less in this region here. So come here now. Yes. And 533. Great. Strategy successfully implemented. A game worth 533 points. Perfect, without any sweat or anything. I'm going to show you a day that almost went right. It wouldn't work
[05:45] because the average of 200 didn't validate it, but the operation validate it, but the operation itself would work. Why? Well, the price is below average, so I didn't set it up, so I wouldn't set up a purchase. But what
[05:59] happened? The price was low, right? It was here, look, nice histogram, crossed down, crossed up, in other words, a buy signal, a stop of 550
[06:11] points as well, right? Similar to another one. So, a gain of 550 points as well. And it really hit, it didn't hit the stop sign, and it was beautiful. However, because of the average of 200, he didn't approve of doing that operation. So, it really does
[06:26] happen sometimes, the average has that filter, but still, okay, I would have had ignored the average, I would have won. But on many other days, the average is what would save you. So, the average saved you from, for example, three, four,
[06:40] five losses, but, wow, it prevented you from winning even once. Well, it's a shame not to win this trade, especially since it went up another 500 points. However, you have to understand that protection is more important than attack. Another day
[06:56] here to set an example, right? So, until close to Christmas, the 23rd, right? Let's recap, shall we? The average of 200 is here, so the price is higher. We'll start thinking about buying soon. The histogram here is pointing upwards, so we're already seeing
[07:10] more of that signal. He went down, so the average went down too, right? He fell below average. When it went up again, that is, the uncrossing, which is what we are looking for, our entry point is set up right here on the next candle or
[07:24] when the uncrossing itself has occurred. So let's place our entry here on the next candle, which was this one. Our stop loss is placed just below the pullback and our take profit. Let's see how much
[07:39] and our take profit. Let's see how much our gain would be. 520 points. It reached 520 points our gain would be. 520 points. It reached 520 points here. So let's here. So let's put it here. It hit the mark perfectly.
[07:51] It even resulted in a very simple 300-point sweat. It went up here; if you wanted to, you could have already moved your stop loss here. That's okay, you wouldn't have won, but at least you protected yourself. If you like the strategy of hedging, or, for
[08:05] example, you can make a trailing stop. Well, for this operation I prefer to do something more closed off. It's one on one, and that's it. He won, he lost, and the game goes on. It worked out great, and I even ended up earning more. If you had
[08:18] entered into more than one contract, you would close one contract here or 50% of would close one contract here or 50% of your contracts here and let the chart handle the rest to see what you would earn in addition. So this is
[08:31] crossing averages. Yes, you wait for the intersection, then move off the line, and only then do you go all in . And the truth is, no strategy is 100% effective. If someone told you that, if you saw a recent video
[08:47] from some big influencer out there who claims to be a know-it-all, know that it's a scam. Tell me, aren't you the big shot? 2 times 1 is the same,
[09:00] and the advantage of the MCD is its statistical factor, famously ed. The truth is that the uncrossing will sometimes be like a slap in the face, it will hit you hard. Well, unfortunately, that's part of the experience of those who have never been frustrated thinking
[09:14] that an intersection would change their life and ended up just wasting their night, isn't it? The secret to successful traders isn't the setup, but rather risk management. Never risk more than 1% of your account per trade,
[09:27] especially in a one-for-one strategy, basically, right? And to help you better understand risk management, we've recently released a very good video that will help you understand and learn more
[09:41] about risk management. Ultimately, if you operate without and that's idiotic. If you found this content worthwhile, our reach and spread knowledge to even more people. While you're at it
[09:57] channel here and comment with another topic you'd like to see us cover. you'd like to see us cover. Beauty? That's it.
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