Live Forex Trading Breakdown — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[04:08] Something happened last week that changed going to see that crypto is falling, Bitcoin is falling. Um the other other pairs against the dollar

[04:21] like the euro, the dollar, the euro, the pounds, the Aussie, um even gold is actually falling. Even the S&P 500 is falling.

[04:33] And crypto has taken a very big hit. Bitcoin is on the around here and what we've seen a very steady decline from 81,000. Right now we are 70 and 6.

[04:48] And if you remember I I've said that man I will see Bitcoin at $44,000. Maybe it it's it's going to happen. Now, what caused this very fall? It's

[05:00] because of a report that came out last week, which is a CPI. So if you go to the if you go to Forex Factory, to Forex Factory, CPI forecast is 0.3%.

[05:17] Previously, it was 0.2%. The actual CPI was 1. Like this is the the margin is so high. Like it is really really high. cascading in the market. That is why everything is falling. Because with this

[05:34] high CPI, CPI of course means Consumer Price Index. It means that the um prices of goods in the market is consumer goods in the market is really high.

[05:49] Even PPI is also high, 1.4% as against the 0. is also high, 1.4% as against the 0. um 5% forecast. As a matter of fact, it going to um because it was 0.7% previous.

[06:04] The prediction is that it will go down, but this time it went higher, doubled what it was in the previous um the previous month. So,

[06:17] it's These are the index tracking the price of goods and services, consumer in the market. When it is high, it means that things are expensive. And when things are expensive,

[06:31] what happened is that the federal the Fed, of course, we now have um a new Fed, Kevin Warsh, is a new Fed chair. The Fed is going to the probability that they are going to

[06:45] raise interest rates is high. When they raise interest rates, it means they are making the dollar they're making the dollar expensive. It means that the when you borrow um

[07:00] um when you borrow dollars, you're going to pay high in >> [clears throat] >> you're going to you're going to pay higher in interest rate. So, this is

[07:12] going to discourage you from borrowing. This would This would encourage you both um into saving. This would encourage investors to invest in to buy the US dollar. So, if the US dollar is going to go up

[07:26] in price, it means that almost every pair that is paired against the US dollar is going to come down. That is why crypto is taking this hit. um that is why crypto is taking this hit.

[07:39] That is That is why we you US dollar is falling, euro is falling, all these are falling. We see card card is going to go up US card is USD card. Gold is also falling. The S&P 500 they are all falling. So, with this in mind, how are

[07:56] we going to trade this week? I'm going to go through uh four charts. We'll look at the Euro, GBP, um and and also Aussie. We might look at card and because I see a trade that is coming in the card in card in my

[08:12] region. I'll also have the gold. So, we're going to look at these currencies. I'm going to look at these um pairs and see the opportunities that we have. the dollar index. So, if you're ready,

[08:29] um do this now. Go to the comment section the way we do. Um if you're ready, just type um the states. I want to see the where you are attending the live from.

[08:42] I just want to see the Just type the country, the city and the country so I know that where you are live from.

[08:58] is what I need right now. And good morning everybody, welcome. So, I see Kenny is in Abuja, Nigeria. Um

[09:17] going to hold. Yeah, it is holding right now. not it's not bull run for Bitcoin. The macroeconomics is just saying otherwise.

[09:29] We're not expecting any bullish um any um any bull for for for Bitcoin.

[09:41] are in. Um Shadrach is in Bauchi. Fortune Osakwe Um Shadrach is in Bauchi. Fortune Osakwe is in Delta State, Nigeria.

[10:05] Um Oshogbo in Nigeria. Welcome guys to the show. So, right now, which is the dollar index. Let me go So, what do we have here? So, we have

[10:21] Let's Let me just make this um this dollar has actually shown us that

[10:33] came out. If you look at over here, we've had this break of structure I mentioned almost every Monday in our life. And we had this change of character here

[10:45] that I called here. Okay? And this zone that we have here has always been the that we expect this market to take off from. all the way. Then it retraced back again

[10:58] Then it retraced back again and started going going uh move moving away. And with the CPI news, we had this [clears throat] we had this [clears throat] break, this very massive break here.

[11:10] Okay? This is a break we had with the CPI. This is This is a proper break of structure for the DXY. So, what do we expect? The market you're seeing now is beginning to retrace. So, what I expect is simply this.

[11:24] haven't drawn the Fibonacci because I've been waiting for this market to retrace. retrace, I can go ahead and pull my Fibonacci to get my second zone.

[11:40] this is now my um other zone. I'm going to call this the golden zone, >> [snorts] >> here is

[11:56] right here is the 4-hour is a 4 is a daily demand zone. I marked it out on the daily. This one I marked it right now. This is the golden zone. This here, the last one is also a daily

[12:11] So, what I'm expecting is that I'm I'm favoring that this market right goes [snorts] down and moves away from here. Either from here

[12:24] >> [clears throat] >> or from here or from this very point, okay? It gets to So, this is the This are the This are the areas of interest where I expect

[12:38] the areas of interest where I expect this market to move away from. how do we now determine where it's actually going to move away from? It's simple It's simple by looking for a confirmation entry inside this zone.

[12:51] Confirmation, I've said it many times, you want to look for this. >> On- Once you see this, it becomes um is the confirmation entry and it's um is the confirmation entry and it's characterized by the break of structure

[13:05] over here and the change of character over here. So, when you see this setup, this very setup within any way in this region, once we see it, then we can actually start taking a long position up

[13:19] trade because you can actually trade this market from here. You can trade it down to this point. This is what I call the riskier taken. And this confirmation entry I just

[13:33] marked out is what you look for in the 5-minute time frame as a swing trader. Okay? So, this is a 1-hour time frame right now. As again, I marked this earlier on the higher time frame. This is the region I'm looking to take This

[13:45] is the region I expect this market to move up from. Mind you, this is the dollar index. I don't trade the dollar index, but I use it to um for confluence.

[14:04] possibility that we can actually trade this lower. So, on the 5 minutes to look for. Let's look at this. Let's look at this. So, I have

[14:19] So, I have this as a break of structure. is another break of structure.

[14:33] another break of structure. So, right now we are here. I'm going to remove this. Right now, we're actually here right now. Okay? So, this this is actually an entry. This a a this a break of

[14:48] Um I'll call it an internal break of structure. This is change of character. So, I will wait for this candle to close because you can see this candle it has at this point now.

[15:03] there are two things two ways to go about it. Okay? One is this is the region this is the target. position from this point.

[15:22] This could be my first target. This very one is my This one. I'd like to have at least a three hour from here. So, um this can be my first target.

[15:36] This will be the final target. Okay, with this final target, I'm looking at um a 4. a 4.1. Why I said it because from this for a long position, okay? So, can start targeting from this region. This is a

[15:52] but this market can actually you trace back to this point before going lower. So, this is the trade I'll be looking to take on the DXY, but of course, two things need to be confirmed. One is

[16:06] Okay? And again, we don't trade on the DXY. We just use it DXY. We just use it to confirm our entries, possible entries on Euro. So, let's start with the Euro now. So, this is the Euro market. It

[16:19] already cleared, just the way I mentioned in the other one. We have a break of structure here. Okay? here. Okay? This is it.

[16:34] and the and price retrace all the way to this And from there, we are This is the point where I take at point should be the target.

[16:50] And I expect this to just keep going lower because of what we are seeing with the dollar. Should keep going lower this way. This Should keep going lower this way. This is what I expect.

[17:06] Let's look for an entry here. We'll get an entry by now going um much lower. So, the same thing. choose to mark the whole of this as a change of character.

[17:21] And from here, um I've also waited to get a to for to the market start retracing I'm going to I'm just going to go ahead and draw out the

[17:36] and draw out the golden zone, okay? I'm going to do this. So, I can mark out the whole of this as

[17:52] as my um this is the OTP.

[18:07] from here, it's it's it's actually fine. The market retracing from here is fine. This is the region we can take a short position from. This is my first target.

[18:22] This is the ultimate target. This target here is the higher time frame target. This is going to take maybe more than a week to happen, okay? Weeks to happen, but for the short time, this is the target

[18:37] we are going to be looking at. And just like I said in the um DXY, we can take a long we can look for how to take a long position from here to trade looking for short position within this region.

[19:01] to lower time frame now. So, on the 1-hour, can we see structure? Um on the Let's just go to the 5-minute time frame. Um So, the same thing has happened here.

[19:13] This Then we came a little late here because if you watch this on the 5 minutes, we already had um this as a change of character here.

[19:32] This, okay? This is a change of character.

[19:45] So, but this has gone actually. This is going right now. This is the place to going right now. This is the place to take a long position from this region. Here. And where do I want to target?

[19:59] First target here. And the second target is this place. And the second target is this place. Okay?

[20:11] This is where I want to target. And this market is going. So, let's see. >> We could get a retracement. I'll also keep an eye on this level. Okay? This particular level. Again, I'm not in this trade. That's not

[20:25] is what I'm looking at right now. If I can go ahead and place a limit order for this market right now. If we have a retracement to this zone is higher. Now, I want to mention that

[20:39] this is becomes is actually is a more How do I put it? It's taking a short position from here is a higher probability trade

[20:54] because this is a because the market I like I said is for Euro is bearish. I was just trying to see how we can take this market to this point, then we

[21:07] trade it lower. Uh this are think things you need is you need just need to keep watching. One, I can place a short a long position from here. But if this market goes higher and breaks over this

[21:22] where is my it breaks over this this way then to get entry to I do this. I can take a Fibonacci tool from here to this point. If this falls within the same region, so this is

[21:37] a good place. This is what I'll be looking at to trade to trade today. um GBP USD offers the same opportunity is

[21:53] giving us the same opportunity. Um let's look at it. Um so yeah. On the 4-hour too, this has a marked out as my demand zone. As my supply zone rather

[22:07] As my supply zone rather is also my supply zone. At the upper level I can choose to also pull out my Fibonacci's from here and draw it all the way down.

[22:20] You can see this overlaps with my first supply zone, which is this one. supply zone, which is this one. Here.

[22:32] of interest. This is a zone I'll be looking for time frame. Then I can trade and this is my target is my target from here.

[22:47] this is my target to trade this lower to this point. And ultimately I want to see this one taking out this particular line taking out. Because again the market is

[23:00] bearish for EU for GU, even for um if I have for all currencies that is paired against the dollar, it's bearish. So, how do we now trade uh opportunities to go higher? I'm going

[23:13] to go down lower right now to see opportunities to go higher. So, this here is the last break of structure we have. structure we have. Okay?

[23:27] actually smaller ones, like we can still call these ones here a break of structure. Um even though it's not like perfect crystal clear. Okay? And but if we're taking this one, you

[23:39] will see here that this becomes the change of character. Internal change of character. And for that reason, here is a place I want to take

[23:54] long position from. Now, I want to mention something. I've shown you GU. I've shown you um EU now. I've shown you EU. I'm showing you GU now. Don't go and just take all these trades.

[24:07] say, $100, right? Risk per trade. We're not going to take because I'm taking the trade at the same

[24:19] time. You might want to take only one or if you're taking two, you can now divide it to $50, $50 just to maintain the same risk. So, you don't increase your risk unnecessary. This is going to be my first target. I would really like to

[24:32] have um at least a three from here. Uh can we get it? So, this will be my entry. This looks Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Let me confirm this.

[24:45] I like to always use the Fibonacci, but the for the Fibonacci, you want to see Okay? Um sometimes 0.5 works out fine. So, this is will be my entry for

[24:59] for GU. This is the first target. Second target is ultimately this very region here. So, the market could give us a very good opportunity um to take trades here. Again, these are

[25:11] immediately I end this um live. Another one is AUD. AUD is just the same thing.

[25:23] before coming here. Just the same thing. frame to see if I could see demand zone and supply zone. So, here we have a demand zone on the 1-hour

[25:37] here. A supply zone rather. A supply zone rather. On the 1-hour here.

[26:03] the daily. Then, if I put a Fibonacci tool, uh I'm to pull from here to this region. to this region. Um Fibonacci gives us lapping this very

[26:19] Um Fibonacci gives us lapping this very region. my trade entry from here.

[26:35] entry from here. Entry from here. Then, I can look for trades now on the 5-minutes 5-minutes to see if I can take this higher.

[26:54] a lot of clarity in this one. Okay? Um the structure is not clear for this one at all. Because this is still showing breaker structure, it has not shown us a change of character. And as a matter of fact,

[27:08] if you take this as your internal breakers, we confirm before you start thinking of taking a trade higher. So, it's what I mean.

[27:22] before you start taking taking of a trade higher this way. So, this one is not the one I would take because the way it's looking sell from here, it's looking as if we are inside this zone.

[27:36] Inside this zone, which means that we can even go to the 1 minute and look for short entries from here. It's a possibility, okay? possibility, okay? Um trades can go either way.

[27:53] US the card, um US the card, anything US the card US the card is um is giving me the short position, okay? Because US the card is going to move

[28:08] is first, it's going to move with dollar index. So, what do I expect from the US the card? I I respect a retracement into this zone. Then we cannot go higher to attack this button. That's all.

[28:21] Here's my Here's my um what I expect from the US the card. We've had here a breaker internal breaker structure from this region um from this particular

[28:35] We've had a change of character from this region. Okay? For me it's a go. I can actually go ahead and

[28:48] a short position from here, right now where it is. So, I get the high as my stop loss. Then, I want to shoot for a 3R minimum.

[29:00] 3R, it's it's here. situation where um I got I get 3R at this point. So,

[29:14] what can we do? Um let's see. I can actually play this game even um again. This is a break of structure here, internal break of structure.

[29:28] Then, this one is giving me that change of character from this region.

[29:42] So, this is this is now the stop loss. Um I want to see I want to be able to get out of this trade from this region. And at least I want a 3R from this region. So, this is

[29:56] where my entry is going to be. It's not giving me that 3R. looking for what to take. Uh maybe try to get a 3R from this point.

[30:13] I've given you entries for entries for um Euro GBP. This is still skyrocketing. Um USD CAD. AUD, I have not given an entry for now.

[30:28] I've not given any entry. So, these are the the the three I could look at. For gold, gold is also falling. The same thing. The same thing. If you go long lower, I'm still expecting this and this for

[30:42] gold. This is just all similar. For S&P 500, we have been moving um the same way. I'm very So, it is is just basically the same way. And for S&P, I want to do this. S&P is

[30:56] usually usually very bullish, okay? Um sometimes, I don't feel comfortable taking a short position S&P 500. Okay, but at least uh we have a a very strong macro narrative that could make this move.

[31:09] But, this is a trade if I'm going to take this if I'm going to take uh this particular trade. trade I would take. I'll look for confirmation inside here for S&P 500.

[31:24] confirmation inside here for S&P 500. And this is the place that I want to I would want to take this trade up to. Okay? So, this um is my trade

[31:36] today. This A lot of the time when we hold this live, I don't we don't see a lot of setup, but right now seeing a lot of setup, and it's already um 7:35.

[31:49] Do I have any questions? So, Enoch is saying don't I I've not seen the one that is first.

[32:05] he said um what from Lagos what do you have to say about clarity structure bill? Uh well, for crypto. We are trying to Right from time,

[32:19] Right from time, there hasn't been any clarity with the way the US handle crypto. So, clarity bill is is good for crypto. But, that doesn't mean that is going to trump

[32:34] Okay? We might have We might see bullishness for the short time, but the general macroeconomics of of um the what they call it? It's It's

[32:48] macroeconomics is is the same. Whether clarity be or no clarity be. Once when clarity be or no clarity be. Once when bit when um US dollar is bullish, most currency pair are going to be bearish.

[33:01] Euro USD, if I had crypto, especially, becomes very very very bearish when the macroeconomics say the US dollar is bullish because it's when

[33:13] US dollar is um when the economy is awesome, right? People can invest in different things. Um we have money flowing in the economy. Interest rate is very low. That is when money goes into

[33:29] assets and risk assets like crypto. And that is when we expect them to to rise. But right now, I'm not even for the macroeconomic standpoint, I'm not expecting um any rise in crypto. Another one is Lastly, do you see

[33:43] Do you use it's Lastly, do you use it's What is reason for trading or drawing your demand and supply zone >> in the 4-hour time frame? Oh,

[33:57] 4-hour time frame High time frame is is a very good place to get Um especially from especially from what they call it? From um

[34:12] a swing trading perspective. That is where the market do react from. So, that's why you want to go to the 1-hour and the 4-hour for your structure for a swing trade perspective. I made a

[34:25] video. Then if you are a day trader, you can look at the 15 minutes and the 1 minute for entries and exits. But the it needs to be really clear for you before you can take that particular trade. If you want access to my Discord, just

[34:40] go to askthebid.com. The process to get access is there. So guys, um thank you for attending. And I'll see you guys tomorrow where we'll talk about we'll look at the

[34:53] we'll talk about we'll look at the crypto market to see entries and exits. I'm happy and um and um have a very successful trading and week.

[35:05] have a very successful trading and week. See you guys tomorrow for crypto.