Live Forex Analysis — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[01:09] Good morning, traders. Welcome to the show. Welcome to the show. Hope you guys had a great weekend. You get a lot of things you go through that.

[01:22] And you get it. In my background always

[02:27] today's analysis, I have two trades that I set Two trades out of the analysis we're going to do. Two looks just fine

[02:39] Okay, as usual, we're going to be looking at EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Australian Dollar/USD, and gold. And we'll start by looking at the dollar index before we get to all these currencies. So, if you're

[02:54] is simply go to the comment section and tell me where you are listening from. tell me where you are listening from. Just type two things. One is Just type two things. One is One is the the city

[03:10] you tell me the country you are live from. Just write it right now in the comment section. I mean, Port Harcourt, Nigeria. section. I mean, Port Harcourt, Nigeria. I can see

[03:27] Abuja. He He don't need to type it because I know he's in Abuja already. Already. Then we have Abdul Salam is in Turkey. Konya, Turkey.

[03:43] She is from Iran too. Iran too. In Port Harcourt. David, I see you in Abuja. So, go ahead the comments. Um I'm going to read it out.

[03:56] That said, we are just going to start the way we usually do. We start with the DXY. DXY is the dollar index. DXY. DXY is the dollar index. Raymond Chinedu in in Onitsha.

[04:14] Now, last week, see what I said last week. Okay, let me go ahead and show you the broader charts. It's the same thing every week. I said holding this level we had this something here.

[04:26] break of structure over break of structure here over here. confirms that we're going high. And it was respected when charts came all the way to this point. To this point and went

[04:41] up. Right now, the dollar index is still very bullish. Dollar is meant to go higher. As a matter of fact, I'm seeing dollar go all the way up to here. Maybe by the end of the year, I will see dollar all the way

[04:54] up to this point. Okay? structure. Direction and and the structure. So, after the

[05:07] one, what I was expecting is a retracement into this zone. Okay, and the market goes up again. But, different thing. Um which is not the kind of price action

[05:22] Um if you know last week, I went ahead and did this. We were around here. Okay, you can see this is Monday. go all the way to this region.

[05:36] Then from there we'll break down to this region. From there we can move up again. But, so market got up to this point. You can see that here. And what happens? It went down, but it didn't go down. It didn't break new

[05:50] structure. That is Looking at it here, you can see that this is the last Let me get this. The market didn't come all the way. Come on.

[06:05] break this structure here. It's just stopping to this region, retrace, and it seems to be going high. This is looking very bullish. This might be um because of the Iran US war that is going on. Okay,

[06:21] the dollar tends to jump when um the the ceasefire agreement is is is Normally, if it's not nullified, I am still bullish on the bullish on the dollar if the ceasefire is is ceasefire

[06:37] was still on. At least the dollar is going to retrace and jump up. But because of that, I think the whole thing just makes it abandon where it's meant to go up from, and just want to go up from here, simply because of the war in

[06:51] but we still trade through it. We are still making money understand structure and you're patient with the whole thing. So again, we didn't come all the way down here, but this is not still the

[07:04] time to take a trade. I'll tell you why. If you come here, like for the DXY, here, this is the high. I'm going to mark it this is the high. I'm going to mark it out right now. This high we see here.

[07:19] This high here. This is the high. Okay? That um led to this breaker of structure we have here. This one.

[07:37] this one, led to this breaker of structure here. Okay? So, it means So, So, before we can consider taking a

[07:51] um a long position, you want to see that this high is broken because everything happening here now is a range. now is a range. Okay?

[08:05] It just needs to be to break out before you can take further trades. So, in this simply wait cuz you don't know what is going to happen. Um this was the This was the opportunity. I

[08:19] don't I don't want to repeat myself. This was the opportunity here Okay? But, it went low. It didn't continue. but it came back to almost the entry.

[08:36] back to almost the entry. And therefore, this is now a range. wait. You want to During a range, during a range, you want to wait for two

[08:49] during a range, you want to wait for two things. One, if we break below this this line, we can still take a short position to go deeper. Okay? If we break above this line, then wait for a retracement and take

[09:03] long position to go higher. That's just simply how to play the DXY um game. But, we're not trading the DXY. As a matter of fact, I can see them going down to the lower time frame. Um I'm still here.

[09:18] This is 1-hour time frame. Because the structure is is not good enough for me to go lower. So, this said, if you look now we cannot go to the euro because euro is where we take trades actually. So, still on the 4

[09:31] hours, you see that euro is simply the opposite of what is happening in the DXY. The entry is here.

[09:45] I'm going to go ahead and look at this. So, this was the plan. look at this. So, this was the plan. Again, I am bearish on the on on Euro What I was looking forward to is a retracement into this zone.

[10:00] this zone, then we look for confirmation entry and we go lower. Uh let me remove this. um um analysis. We have a break of

[10:15] structure here. We also have a break of structure internally here. So, if we a retracement into this zone will confirm that we can go lower. if I now go to the 1-hour and we look at

[10:28] this particular region over here. This one. A tap into the golden zone.

[10:42] But, what happened? The market did not continue going higher. I was expecting it to go ahead and break I was expecting it to go ahead and break this structure over here.

[10:58] and we then go higher into this zone. We can see we we tapped from this zone, went high, and we are back to the same place. Uh okay? As a matter of fact, what I was expecting was um I think I had an order

[11:13] here around here. higher. But, you can see that actually broke it. So, it it again, for Euro USD,

[11:29] it's a game is more like we are now ranging in this zone. We're now having a range in this zone. You want to wait for a break below this line, then you can take a short go lower,

[11:42] or you want to wait for a break above this line they can take a long position to go here. But uh but the the matter what you do, what you do, the general bias is that we are

[11:54] what? We are bearish. If this breaks below here, then it's good to start goes above here, you can take a long position to this zone, then from here you can take it lower. Um what you can do to right now for the

[12:08] EUR/USD is to be patient. There's something I was looking at earlier even before I started this slide. I was going down to the lower time frame and saying, "Okay, we are still in this zone.

[12:21] looking for because we just tapped into this demand zone over here. looking for um um internal structure to start looking for a long position? You can do that,

[12:35] but it becomes more the the probability that it goes your way is quite thin. Um it's a low probability trade. You want to take a long position from here, it is a low probability um trade.

[12:50] the the um the GBP. So, GBP is giving us is giving us Normally, it moves with us Normally, it moves with it moves with euro, but in this case is

[13:05] giving us something different. It's giving something different. these things because I'm about to enter this trade Uh so, last week again, this is the zone. This here,

[13:23] this line, is a protected high. Because we had a break of structure here.

[13:36] And this is the golden zone. This is the demand zone. So, everything here from this region from this region is a region to enter from. Okay, if I see if I see signal in this

[13:50] region it's good to go inasmuch as I've not crossed this protected inasmuch as I've not crossed this protected high here. It's a good region to enter unless we

[14:03] break above the cross protected high. Then we'll start looking for a short position. We'll break above with a candle body closure. So, so what does this now mean? It now means

[14:15] since we are still here, we can start looking for a change of character. And I have been trailing this this my last alert here waiting for this to happen. But look at where it happened. It happened just here.

[14:30] um if you watch this

[14:42] Then a retracement a break of structure here again. fact, let me mark it with clear. We don't even need to go to a a lower time 5-minute time frame. So, again, internally this is a break of

[14:57] So, again, internally this is a break of structure. trade I want to take now. I'm taking this trade now. I'm taking this trade now. It's a BOS. Okay?

[15:11] If you look at this, it's under break of structure here. Okay? Then if you look at this again

[15:25] this is also another break of structure here. Which then means that over here below here, we have a change of below here, we have a change of character.

[15:45] it means that your trade has cooked like it's set. There are several ways you can enter it. I want to show you. One, you can go immediately here. Now, it means that your trade is going to take a long time

[16:00] Stick You got to get your position like this. You got to get your position like this. Place your entry here. Your um stop loss above here. And your target all the way down to this

[16:14] point. You can see give it giving a 3.28 trade to take. Now, the way you enter it now depends on um how many times you want to take it.

[16:29] Um or you can take my The good thing is that if you're if you're trading forex, you can take multiple of this trade. You position size and take multiple of this trade.

[16:41] So, this one trade to take and the good thing is that you're not missing Okay? Now, what is the second way to take this trade? this. Okay? If you look at over here

[20:30] Um You can't It's It's on the back right now. So, I don't think this trade is simply this. most risk reward. I It's going to give you the most risk reward.

[20:44] I'm going to remove this. Is to on the 5 minutes now, you want to wait for price to get all the way here.

[20:56] the way all the way to this region. price to get all the way to this region, So, when it gets here and it gives you a break of structure on the lower time

[21:09] you will see that you will even get a better, much um risk-to-reward ratio. this trade on the touch that if we go down to

[21:26] even the the place I marked earlier, region, you will see that you're you're actually getting a very high risk-to-reward ratio by just

[21:39] waiting for this. Again, the trade-off is that price may not get to this region. But, this is This gives you the best trade. So, one way you can do this is just to spread just wait for

[21:53] there are different There are different ways you can take this trade. Now, let's Australian dollar um USD. Okay?

[22:08] Um this is pretty simple. We have a demand field here, break of structure here. So, I am actually also bearish on the Australian dollar. But, I want to work off of this break of structure that we

[22:21] have here. And this is a target I want to look at. This one to take a short position from. So, knowing this, we can now go lower to a 15-minute time frame.

[22:45] had this marked out. Um I have this supply zone supply field marked out. But, beside the supply field, you can full break of structure here. So, it's no

[23:01] longer a supply zone. So, um break of structure. So, if this if that is the case, how do I now trade this? Go back to the 1-hour to make it um

[23:15] Go back to the 1-hour to make it um clearer. um you know, it was actually going in zone, okay, went higher, broke structure here again.

[23:30] this, I'm going to remove this now. If you watch this, this here this here is

[23:47] is a demand zone. So, guys, I need to take this I this this really Give me a sec. Um um I will return back Give me a sec. Um um I will return back to

[25:05] waiting for me, so I need to take that call. So, but while running off, this is with regards this is the um Australian dollar. Uh so, golden zone. So, one way to take this trade is simply this. So, if you

[25:18] look at this, this is it where we are heading to. This target above here is where we're heading to.

[25:30] ripe. Um if we also put this Fibonacci, this is a golden zone. So, one way is to actually take this trade from here immediately. So, take a a long position from here where the price is right now.

[25:45] Okay, this is this. And not a short position, a long And not a short position, a long position rather. And you want to make sure that it gives you at least a three.

[26:00] want to make sure that, you know, it gives you a three This is one way to take it. Another way is you want to wait for this is the demand zone from here. Um when price starting to that zone,

[26:16] you you attack them on the 1-hour. So, and trade is just simply you go to the 5-minute time frame and you want to wait for a change of character.

[26:29] Okay? So, the price is this high, this is um if you watch this, this is the last This is the last

[26:41] um break of structure internal. break of structure internal. So, this makes this

[26:53] This makes this big change of character. you want to start taking this trade. I think this is a better way to good to do

[27:08] to do this. You want to set the target in this trade if price goes above this region. Then you want to go long. That is the best way to go about this. Now, if price

[27:22] keeps on going lower, it breaks below, then you transfer this break of structure to this region. If it does this, it keep on transferring. Then anytime it breaks above,

[27:35] Then anytime it breaks above, let me clean this. that is when you want to want to take a long position

[27:50] because that's showing you that, "Okay, I'm right I'm now ready to move high." This is the best way I would play the Australian dollar USD. It's just to We're already in the region in this zone. You can see the demand zone of

[28:03] below. You can see the Fibonacci golden zone um here. All you want to now do is just to stay on the 5-minute time frame watching the structure. Whenever it for example, if it gives me the break here, what I'm going to do is simply

[28:18] here, what I'm going to do is simply take my long position to put it here, go below here, and I'll just simply go and target This particular high. You can see it's giving me almost

[28:31] a um 2.89, 2.82. But, this is the ultimate I want to go for. Give me a four. So, this I want This I want to play this trade. So, uh So, final one is gold.

[28:45] um seems to be gold came into a premium zone for short. What you can see here it it just didn't get into my OTE. And I wasn't comfortable taking a gold

[28:59] trade if it doesn't get into my OTE. Okay, that is my golden zone. It didn't get into golden zone. It didn't get into the demand zone. So, it wasn't something I was good to take to trade even though it is

[29:12] So, I do think it has gotten to my golden here after we had this demand zone filled. I I'll be on my way to profit. But, the thing is that even from here as well I

[29:28] short but but the thing is that it didn't get into this golden zone. So, I'm just going to be watching gold to play out. I've gotten some trades so far. I'm very conservative with my trade. I've gotten a good trade here,

[29:41] here, here. I think I took a long position from here. I can't quite remember. But, these are the ones that I left on. So, I was looking for something here to go short again, but that is that didn't happen. But, it doesn't mean

[29:56] that it may not happen. I might still see gold come all the way to this Come all the way up again. If you come all the way up again, then I want to short positions to take it lower. Or the Or if it doesn't happen, no problem. If

[30:11] gold If gold goes this way, then I can I can look for confirmation to go higher and maybe confirmation to go lower again. That is that, guys. That is that, guys. I've shown you the trades I am taking on

[30:25] GBP USD. Uh I've shown you what I'm taking on um Australian dollar USD. For gold, I'm just waiting and for EUR USD, I'm also just waiting and for EUR USD, I'm also waiting for the market to um basically

[30:38] uh play out. So, that's it. I will see you guys tomorrow where we look at crypto markets. Bye everyone.