Why 90% of MLB Bettors Lose (And How to Win Instead)

[00:02] biggest money-making opportunity in sports betting. There are 2,430 regular season games in an MLB season. That's not just more games, that's more mistakes, more mispriced lines, and more opportunity to make money compared to

[00:19] [music] most bettors are going to lose this MLB season. And it's because they're betting the wrong way. If you just bet on your favorite team this MLB season, you're going to be donating to the sports

[00:32] books. I'm a huge Dodgers fan, but if I bet the Dodgers to win every game this year, I'd be losing a lot of money. And it's not because the Dodgers are bad or their games. It's because the Dodgers

[00:45] price is going to be inflated every single game, and value's not going to be on the Dodgers. That's the biggest mistake most MLB bettors make. They want favorite player. Now, professional bettors understand something most

[00:58] bettors don't, and this is why they love the MLB. The MLB isn't about picking winners. It's about exploiting pricing inefficiencies. [music] And in this video, I'm going to show you four exact strategies that sharp bettors use to

[01:12] crush the MLB. And the best part is, you don't need to be some professional better to do this. I'm going to show you exactly how you can get started today started with our first strategy, one of the most straightforward strategies,

[01:27] arbitrage betting. This is the only way that you can make risk-free, guaranteed profit in sports betting. And here's how [music] it works. Different sportsbooks post different odds. And sometimes, the differences between the odds are so big

[01:39] that you can lock in profit no matter what happens. Now, here's an example. Say sportsbook A has a prop at +110, and sportsbook B has the opposite side of that same prop at +105. Now, you could bet both sides of this and guarantee

[01:54] there's no guessing, there's no sweating out bets, it's just a math-based profit. Now, here we are on Odds Jam to show you exactly what arbitrage betting

[02:06] looks like. This will simplify the process a lot for you. So, on Odds Jam, Now, the next thing you're going to want to do is always set your state. So, we'll select Colorado for this. Select

[02:18] then you're going to want to go to the sportsbook tab and select your state sportsbooks. That's going to give you all the options that you have to make bets on. We're going to show the results here, and what you're going to see is a

[02:30] ton of different arbitrage opportunities that pop up. Now, in the MLB season, you're going to see a ton of MLB lines on here. We're a couple days before the see some a bit of basketball, a bit of other sports. Let's take a look at this

[02:45] Kings-Hornets team total made threes DraftKings values the Sacramento Kings to go over 11.5 made threes at +185 odds. And we can see that Sportsino has the under 11.5 at -125.

[03:02] Now, those are drastically different lines, and that means if we were to bet lines, and that means if we were to bet $60 on DraftKings and $100 on Sportsino, we are guaranteed to make either $11 or $20, no matter whether or not the Kings

[03:16] go over or under their made three line. They could make zero threes or they could make a hundred threes, and we do not care. And that's because the >> [music]

[03:29] >> which leaves us a pocket to make guaranteed, risk-free profit, no matter the outcome. And after filtering to the MLB, we can see that there's already some arbitrage opportunities a couple days before the regular season starts.

[03:41] Now, we can see in this one, Hunter Brown, pitcher for the Houston Astros, has his strikeout line set at 6.5 strikeouts. And we can see that it's valued at -133 on Thrills, and +141 for the under over

[03:55] at ProfitX. Now, Odds Jam software is going to tell us that if we put $100 on his over on Thrills and $73 on his under on ProfitX, you're going to make $2.19

[04:08] on ProfitX, you're going to make $2.19 to $2.93. That's a 1.42% return, and that all, of course, is risk-free, guaranteed profit because he's either guaranteed profit because he's either going to land at over 6.5 or under 6.5.

[04:20] He cannot go in between, and because of that, you are guaranteed to make profit, no matter how well or poorly Hunter Brown pitches. And that right there is all that arbitrage betting is. At the end of the day, it's a super simple and

[04:33] easy to execute strategy. All you're doing is finding mispriced lines so that you can bet opposite sides of the same bet and guarantee yourself risk-free profit. Now, let's move over to strategy number two, positive EV betting. Just as

[04:46] we found out in arbitrage betting, every single book sets their lines independently, which is huge for positive EV bettors. Unlike stocks, there's no true price across the market. If Apple stock is at $100, every single

[05:00] stock exchange is going to have Apple listed at $100. But as we saw with arbitrage betting, one team can be favored at -110, and that does not mean that every single sportsbook values that team at -110 odds. Let's say DraftKings

[05:14] has the New York Yankees favored at -110, but other books like Pinnacle, Bookmaker, and FanDuel have the Yankees at -140. Well, that right there tells you everything you need to know. The real probability is closer to -140, but

[05:28] DraftKings is leaving this line at -110. So, what do you do? You bet it on DraftKings at -110 and get a significantly better price that's 30 cents cheaper or 30 cents more profitable for you on DraftKings than

[05:41] the other sportsbooks. With positive EV betting, you're getting a better number than what market value is. And by not betting with emotions and betting off of where you can get the best price and the highest expected value, that's where

[05:55] sharp bettors win long-term. And the amazing thing with positive EV betting is that Odds Jam makes it extremely easy to find these plays. Now, here we are back over on Odds Jam on the positive EV tab, and we can take a look and see that

[06:08] there is a ton of expected value for us to be able to take. So, once again, filter to the state you're in, select the sportsbooks that you have available, pop up. We can see right here, there's Davion Carter under 10.5 rebounds plus

[06:23] Davion Carter under 10.5 rebounds plus assists. Now, this is flagged as a 9.42% EV play in the Kings-Hornets game. We can see that Hard Rock is offering it at -115 odds. And when we click into this, we're going to see how different Hard

[06:37] Rock has priced this compared to the rest of the market. FanDuel, one of the sharpest player prop books in the world, has Carter under 10.5 at -166 has Carter under 10.5 at -166 odds. So, we can now see that Hard Rock,

[06:51] a very easily beatable sportsbook, has this at -115 when FanDuel, a much >> [music] >> And FanDuel's leading the market right here, but they're not the only book that's giving us value. We can see that

[07:06] everybody is at least in the -130s, and again, on Hard Rock, we're getting that at -115. This is like going to the grocery store, and if a bag of apples costs $5, but the next stand over sells them the exact same apples to you for

[07:20] $3, you're going to buy them for $3 every single time. That's exactly how positive EV betting works. You're getting a better price than what you really should get, and because of that, you have a long-term advantage over the

[07:33] sportsbooks. Now, here we are over in the MLB markets, and we can already see there's going to be a ton of player props this year available for you guys. Think about it. If sportsbooks can't even agree on the money line or the

[07:45] spread, how are they going to correctly price player props when there's hundreds of players in the MLB with hundreds of different lines that these sportsbooks all have to individually price. So, let's take a look at this top example.

[07:58] It's a 5.5% EV bet, and it's Nolan Arenado of the Arizona Diamondbacks to go over half a hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now, FanDuel values this at -135, but if we take a look at the rest of the market, we can see

[08:12] DraftKings has this at -177, Caesars -157, and an exchange Novig at -176 odds. Now, if you liked Nolan Arenado to

[08:24] get a hit against the Dodgers here, you're going to want to take this at FanDuel, where you're only paying -135 juice compared to -174 at DraftKings. And another great thing to look at is what is the overall market

[08:39] consensus? Are we sure that maybe DraftKings is just extremely mispriced, and really, -135's not that great of a price. Well, we can check the average odds across all sportsbooks and see that average odds are -169.

[08:55] That is still drastically more juice than the -135 over at FanDuel. Now, when the MLB season is rolling, you will see hundreds of plays a day popping up with positive expected value on the sportsbooks you have access to. Now,

[09:10] that's how positive EV betting works, and just like arbitrage betting, it's very simple to learn and very simple to execute. And luckily for you guys, if you go to the link in the description of this episode and use promo code takes on

[09:23] Odds Jam, they'll give you a free week and 35% off your first month to test out these tools. Now, let's dive into our third strategy and one of my personal third strategy and one of my personal favorites, cross market EV betting, also

[09:35] known as following the sharp money. And here's a quick, simplified explanation of what cross market EV betting is. As we talked about earlier, every arbitrage bet has two sides, one side that's going to hit and the other side that's going

[09:48] to lose, but because of price discrepancies in arbitrage betting, you're guaranteed to make risk-free profit. What cross market EV betting is is taking an arbitrage bet, but only betting the side that has positive

[10:00] expected value. Now, here's an example. Let's say that Pinnacle, the sharpest sports book in the world, sets a line. And a softer sports book like Hard Rock disagrees with that line, prices it differently, and opens up an arbitrage

[10:12] betting opportunity between Pinnacle and Hard Rock. Well, this is where a crossed market EV opportunity is created. We would trust the Pinnacle side of this arbitrage play to be the correctly priced line in this arbitrage bet. And

[10:25] therefore, that means the Hard Rock side has higher expected value because their line is likely exploitable. So, in a cross market EV situation, we would only bet the Hard Rock side of this arbitrage bet knowing this is a higher expected

[10:39] value bet because Hard Rock's not going to price their lines as accurately as how in the world are you supposed to spot all these different opportunities where there's an arbitrage bet with a sharp book and a soft book, and which

[10:53] side of this arbitrage bet has the higher expected value? Well, luckily Odds Jam is going to make our lives very easy. So, here we are on the Odds Jam sharp money tool. And what we're seeing here is a bunch of crossed market EV

[11:07] plays listed in order on how much liquidity sharps are looking to get down example here. We see the Colorado Avalanche have $17,757

[11:23] and ProfitX. Very sharp betting exchanges that sharp bettors will go to because there's no limits. So, sharp bettors are posting $17,000 to get matched so that they can bet the Colorado Avalanche at -156, -155, and

[11:39] -153 odds. Now, on the screen you're seeing this show up as +153, +155, and +156 because that's the liquidity that these sharps need to get matched in

[11:51] order so they can take the Avalanche at -156 odds. How betting exchanges work is they're peer-to-peer. So, if you go and bet $100 on the Avalanche moneyline at -153 odds, the only way you get that bet

[12:05] matched and that bet officially gets placed is if somebody else on the other side is willing to take the Pittsburgh Penguins at +156 gone, found a line that they really

[12:18] like, which is the Colorado Avalanche at on this one -153 odds. And they now need people to take the Pittsburgh Penguins at +153 odds. When we see large amounts of liquidity get posted on these betting exchanges, it signifies sharp action.

[12:35] And this creates cross market EV plays. So, while the term cross market EV may sound very comprehensive and confusing, it's super simple with how Odds Jam breaks it down. All Odds Jam is going to show you is the most profitable cross

[12:50] market EV plays that pop up on very sharp betting exchanges, Novibet and ProfitX. And all you have to do is give Odds Jam the sports books you have available to bet with, and it will flag any cross market EV plays where your

[13:04] sports book has either the same odds or better odds than what sharps are looking to get down on Novibet and ProfitX. And just like arbitrage betting and positive EV betting on MLB game day, you will see tons of MLB opportunities popping up

[13:18] and Odds Jam is going to tell you where the best value and the sharpest bettors are putting their money down in the MLB. Now, we've covered arbitrage betting, positive EV betting, and sharp money betting or cross market EV betting. It's

[13:32] now time to break into the prediction markets. And this strategy is called the prediction insider strategy. In 2026, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are absolutely exploding. And here's why sports bettors love them. For one,

[13:46] there's no limits. So, sharp bettors typically get heavily limited on recreational sports books like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM once they're going to be long-term profitable. The prediction markets are

[13:58] peer-to-peer, so similar to the betting exchanges Novibet and ProfitX, on Polymarket and Kalshi there are no limits. You can bet an unlimited amount, and you can win an unlimited amount of money without ever getting limited. Now,

[14:10] in 2026, everyone is trying to figure out how to best profit off of the prediction markets. There are endless amounts of opportunity, and one strategy has stood out, tailing the insiders. What we refer to as insiders are traders

[14:23] on Polymarket and Kalshi that have absolutely been printing money. We're talking about syndicates, professional bettors, and people moving serious volume on these prediction markets. And instead of trying to compete against

[14:35] them and their models that have proven to be long-term profitable, you can now simply tail their plays. Now, here we are once again over at Odds Jam, and this time we're on the prediction insiders tool. And this is going to show

[14:47] >> [music] >> how you can tail the most profitable long-term traders on the prediction markets. These aren't traders who have made 100 trades and got lucky hitting 60 of their trades. These are traders who,

[15:00] across hundreds if not thousands of trades, have proven to have a high ROI that has been profitable in the sports market. So, let's dive into a couple of the plays. First off, let's look at what past results have been with this. We can

[15:14] see the algorithm here has made 3.2k trades >> [music] >> in the last 30 days and has had a 475% return winning 61.92% of their trades and profiting 23.7k.

[15:29] And profiting over $23,000 using a $5,000 bankroll. Now, this right here, this backtest shows you the potential and the results that this prediction insiders tool has garnered. Now, let's take a look at an example.

[15:44] This prediction insider has a trade that got a 93 overall grade on Odds Jam. Now, that grade is a combination of different factors that include the relative bet

[15:56] size this trader is making. So, this trader is betting 1.6 times their normal bet size. Overall, they're putting down $1.6 thousand on their bet, and the slippage is +1.9%. Now, slippage is the same thing as line

[16:11] movement on a sports book. If a sharp bets a line at one price and the line has dramatically changed by the time you get around to tail that pick, you've lost the value the sharp was on. So, the general rule of thumb with slippage is

[16:23] general rule of thumb with slippage is if it's under 3%, it's ideal. 3 to 5% is acceptable, and if it's over 5% of slippage, your edge is likely gone. So, we can see it's 1.9% slippage, which is right in the ideal range. Now, who is

[16:37] this [music] insider? Well, we can see that they have a 6.45% return in the sports market. That is their total ROI, and that's across 295 trades. Now, we will see traders with 295 trades, and we'll see traders with

[16:52] 4,054 trades. So, the general commonality of all this is that these are traders who have traded a ton in the sports market and have proven to be long-term profitable. So, this right here, our 93 example, would tell you to

[17:06] here, our 93 example, would tell you to take the Denver Nuggets -5.5 over on take the Denver Nuggets -5.5 over on Polymarket at a 53 cent price tag. Now, of course, you can take this on a sports book as well, but the great thing about

[17:18] never get limited. So, if you're tailing these prediction insiders and you really book's going to realize that you have an edge over them and they're going to want to limit you. On Polymarket, on Kalshi, on the betting exchanges, that will

[17:34] never be an issue. You will never get limited for winning too much. And just like the theme of this video, come MLB season, we will see prediction insiders posting a ton of MLB plays, and that is one of the best ways that you can crush

[17:49] the MLB season using prediction markets. So, there we have it. Four strategies that you should be using to make more profit this MLB season than you ever have in the past. If you take one thing from this video, let it be this. The MLB

[18:02] season is not about picking winners. It's about finding value. Because over 2,430 games, your edge doesn't just come from being right. It comes from being priced correctly. And the bettors who win this

[18:15] MLB season aren't the ones making hot takes. They're the ones using arbitrage betting, positive EV betting, sharp money betting, and prediction insiders. If you combine these four strategies and stay disciplined, this will easily be

[18:29] your best MLB season. And if you guys want to shortcut the entire process and have all your data in one place, Odds Jam makes it incredibly easy to execute all four of these strategies. We've put a link to Odds Jam in the description of

[18:41] takes when you sign up, you'll get a free week trial and 35% off your first month. Now, let's all go make some money this MLB season.