Risk-Free World Cup Betting Strategy — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:03] with just two beds on the FIFA World Cup 2022. how I did this was with Arbitrage betting one was a positive EV bet on a promotional offer and the other was a hedge bet to remove my risk to understand how it works I highly

[00:18] recommend you watch these videos on armchart and positive EV betting to familiarize yourself with these Concepts while this bed is specific to the World Cup only the principles of positive EV Arbitrage and hedging are very important

[00:32] if you want to be a profitable long-term Sports bidder and this is a great way to learn and fully understand the concepts so let's get into it this opportunity came through a special promotion offered by one of the new bookies or Sports

[00:46] books in Australia that are the bookie landscape is very competitive in world because there's just so many degenerate gamblers donating money to The Bookies and every single bookie wants a piece of the pie so beta wanted

[00:59] to attract customers and they did this by offering a 100 to one promotion on any team to win the World Cup 2022. now this is clearly a very good opportunity and that is obviously why they capped the stake at ten dollars meaning you can

[01:13] only bet a maximum of ten dollars on this promotion so obviously we will want to max out and bet the full ten dollars so which team do I actually bet on France Argentina Germany Brazil or some other team like Australia instead of

[01:28] looking online and following expert tips or blogs about World Cup predictions I chose instead to look at Betfair exchange which is a betting Market where people can send in orders to back or lay which means to bet against any team this

[01:43] therefore gives me the fair odds and therefore the fair probabilities on How likely each team is going to win the World Cup we can see that Brazil is the favorite and has the highest probability of winning which can be calculated by

[01:56] one over the midpoint of the best back and best late odds which is 5 5.2 and and best late odds which is 5 5.2 and 5.3 so 5.25 and that gives us a 19 probability the reason why the Betfair odds are the most reflective of the true

[02:09] odds for each team to win is because it is a market and reflects wisdom of the crowd which I explained in a previous video so now that we know Brazil is most likely to win we're going to bet our 10 on Brazil this gives us a 19 chance of

[02:23] getting one thousand and ten dollars back which means one thousand profit and an 81 chance of just losing our initial ten dollars so our expected value is ten dollars so our expected value is 0.19 times 1000 plus 0.81 times negative

[02:38] 10. and that gives us 181.90 which is very positive EV and this represents how much this bet is worth if we bet on any other team for example Portugal it would be significantly less and if we bet on some

[02:53] team like Australia it would actually be negative EV now this is not risk-free as we can see we have a high chance and saw 81 chance actually of losing but what we can do to solve this is to place a hedge bet on Betfair which is betting against

[03:08] Brazil to win we can lay that for an amount of 190 at 5.3 odds with a amount of 190 at 5.3 odds with a liability of 817 this means we're essentially being the bookmaker taking on another punters bet on Brazil to win

[03:23] on another punters bet on Brazil to win at 5.3 odds they're betting 190 dollars so if Brazil wins then we have to pay out their stake back and the profit of 817 to them but if Brazil doesn't win then we just keep their 190 dollars

[03:36] however there is a fee involved with using Betfair exchange which is why I don't really like hedge bets because if we use Betfair and we win our bet then we have to pay a five percent commission on our winnings so instead of 190

[03:49] dollars we only actually get to keep 180.50 so now let's sum up the results of each possible outcome in the case that Brazil wins the World Cup we we get one thousand dollars profit from BET R but we have to pay 817 giving us a net

[04:05] profit of one hundred and eighty three dollars if Brazil doesn't win whether they don't even make it out of the group stage we lose out ten dollars from beta but we get one hundred and eighty dollars and fifty cents from Betfair

[04:20] after the commission meaning we make one hundred and seventy dollars and fifty cents net profit this means no matter what the outcome is we will have made at least one hundred and seventy dollars and fifty cents and our risk has been

[04:33] entirely hedged away the expected value for this now is 0.19 times 183 plus 0.81 for this now is 0.19 times 183 plus 0.81 times 170.5 which is equal to

[04:45] 172.88 this is slightly less than the EV of the unhed BET and that is actually because the Hedge bet is actually slightly negative EV because one you are paying the commission to Betfair and secondly you have to cross the spread to

[04:59] provide respect instead of getting the fair odds of 5.25 you have to offer 5.3 odds to another punto this is why I don't actually like hedging and I actually believe in the long run I can expect my risk to be Diversified away if

[05:13] I bet thousands and thousands of times and I don't actually need to use Betfair so I have to admit I actually lied in this video and it's not risk-free for me because I didn't end up placing the Hedge bet on Betfair so I'm just riding

[05:26] out the risk and hoping that Brazil wins the World Cup so I can make 1 000 instead I'm going to grab some popcorn and turn on the TV and hope this video ages well and that you guys aren't laughing at me after the World Cup is

[05:39] useful in helping you understand Arbitrage betting positive EV betting and hedging and if you want to learn more you can join my free Discord in the link in the description below or sign up to my sports betting course which covers

[05:52] all the strategies that I use to make over fifty thousand dollars in profit and Counting take care and see you guys in the next video