3 Sharp Betting Strategies to Profit All Football Season

[00:01] the most fun times to bet on sports. Between college football on Saturdays, the NFL on Sundays, primetime games throughout the week, there are plenty of big game opportunities. But football season is also the time of year where a

[00:16] lot of sports bettors lose the most money. A lot of bettors start firing away on games simply because they're watching them on TV. They build massive parlays, they chase their losses. Plain and simple, they make poor decisions

[00:30] which crushes their bankroll. But if you approach football season with actual sharp betting strategies, all that volume and all of those games can be video, I'm going to walk you through three profitable sharp sports betting

[00:45] strategies that you should be utilizing this NFL and college football season to make this season more profitable than ever. We're going to walk through arbitrage betting, positive EV betting, and middle betting, and why all three

[00:58] this football season. These strategies, of course, work throughout the entire sports calendar, but football season presents one of the best opportunities to cash in. And the best part of all three of these strategies is none of

[01:11] them require you to predict games better than the sports books do themselves. Instead, they're about finding discrepancies in the market and using math to your advantage as a better. Let's get started with arbitrage

[01:24] betting. Now, arbitrage might be the easiest of these three opportunities to understand. The goal is incredibly simple. You're looking to bet both sides of the same market on different sports books to lock in guaranteed profits. And

[01:37] sports books all set their lines independently, which means there's discrepancies in the markets and lines are different across different sports sports books are all trying to price hundreds [snorts] of games, especially

[01:51] on a college football Saturday, there's a lot of room for error that you can video a couple months before football season actually kicks off in college football and the NFL, but I do want to show you a quick example of what an

[02:04] arbitrage bet in the football context actually looks like so we can head over to OddsJam, a software that's going to find us arbitrage bets, find us where these price discrepancies lie, and tell us how we can actually go out placing an

[02:16] arbitrage bet. It is CFL season right now so we can get a quick example of a CFL game. And on my screen here, you can see the arbitrage tool over at OddsJam. opportunity on the first quarter money line of Hamilton versus Montreal in the

[02:32] CFL. Now, what exactly are we looking at? We're looking at the market of a first quarter money line and we can see that on FanDuel, Hamilton to win the first quarter is priced at plus 225 odds, while Montreal to win the first

[02:46] odds, while Montreal to win the first quarter on Unibet is priced at minus 192 odds. So, how can we use these numbers to our advantage? Now, initially looking at this, there's likely no numbers that truly make sense in your head, which is

[02:58] why OddsJam is so powerful because we can input how much we'd want to bet on each thing, which I put right now $100, and the software is going to tell us exactly how much we should put on each side of this arbitrage bet to ensure

[03:10] that we make a guaranteed risk-free profit. So, we can see here, OddsJam is telling us to put $47 down on the FanDuel side of this bet and $100 down on the Unibet side of this bet, and we are guaranteed, no matter what happens,

[03:24] no matter whether Montreal or Hamilton win the first quarter, we will make a win the first quarter, we will make a 3.48% return on this bet. Now, you might be thinking, what exactly is this 3.48% return? Well, in this instance, with how

[03:37] much we put, it comes down to $5, which I understand might not seem like a lot to you. Why would you want to bet a total of $147 to make $5? Well, with arbitrage betting, that is risk-free profit. This

[03:51] is not a riskful bet. This is guaranteeing ourselves to win $5. If somebody came up to you on the street and said, "Pay me $147 and I will give you your $147 back immediately and tack a $5 bill onto it."

[04:08] You would take that. You're making $5 a profit. It's not life-changing, but it is completely free. And that's the premise of arbitrage betting. When you arbitrage bet in volume, you can put together serious profits. Imagine if you

[04:22] together serious profits. Imagine if you had 20 opportunities of this a day, you would make $100 off of this. And as we get into football season, when we start getting into player props, where sportsbooks set those lines incredibly

[04:34] inefficiently, as well as small college football games, there's going to be 6% arbs, 10% arbs that you can take advantage of and make more money on. So, this right here was an example in the CFL of what an

[04:47] arbitrage bet looks like. And as you could imagine, on college football games going on across every single conference, this page on Odds Jam is going to be absolutely bumping with action that you can take advantage of.

[05:02] And it's all risk-free. Now, the next strategy I want to talk about that you should be utilizing this football season is positive EV betting, personally one of my favorite betting strategies. Now, positive EV betting differs from

[05:14] arbitrage betting because you're not locking in guaranteed profit when it comes to positive EV betting. Instead, you're making bets that are mathematically profitable long-term. And that gives you an edge over the

[05:26] sportsbooks. Here's the idea and the premise behind positive EV betting. Different sportsbooks have different opinions, and some sportsbooks are sharper than others. When a sharp book believes that a player prop should be

[05:38] valued at minus 150 odds, but a softer book has priced that exact same prop at plus 100 odds, the value clearly lies on the softer sports book offering this line at plus 100 odds. When you positive EV bet, you're getting odds that are

[05:52] better than what true probability would suggest. And with positive EV betting, you're definitely playing the volume game. One bet at a better price than what the market suggests doesn't guarantee that bet is going to win. But

[06:05] over hundreds and thousands of bets where you're consistently getting a better price than what true probability suggests, you're going to make money long term. And football season creates an unbelievable number of positive EV

[06:18] about how many player props are available on an NFL Sunday. Every single player's receiving yards prop, rushing prop, quarterback passing yards props are all set independently by different sports books, which means naturally,

[06:33] you're going to find mispriced lines as you scan the market. And the same thing can be said about college football Saturday. When there's hundreds of games spread, their point total, their first half totals all differently, and there

[06:47] are advantages that you can take. Personally, during football season, I love to take advantage of player props. Typically, an NFL spread is going to be pretty sharp. If the spread is minus seven, most sports books are going to

[06:59] live in the minus 105 to minus 115 price range. Not a lot of value on the spreads, but when you get to player props, you'll not only see sports books price the line differently, but you'll actually see sports books set the

[07:13] physical number of a yardage prop differently. You might see a 15-yard discrepancy in a quarterback's passing total. That can create a ton of value if With the amount of different bets that you can take on an NFL Sunday, it makes

[07:29] zero sense to be betting if you don't have an edge. And Odds Jam, once again, is a software that will scan the market for you and tell you where the value is on each sports book and how you can profit on NFL Sunday. Now, the third

[07:42] called middle betting. And middle [clears throat] betting works perfectly during football season. Let's say you bet the Cowboys spread at minus three early in the week. And throughout the week, injury news comes out and new

[07:55] money pours into the market changing the spread. Well, now the Cowboys line is set at minus six. Instead of simply sitting on your original bet at minus three, you can now take the other side and grab their opponent at plus six.

[08:08] Now, you have a three-point gap where both bets could potentially cash. If the Cowboys win by exactly four, both bets hit. And even if you don't hit exactly in the middle of a middle bet, you're creating a much better risk profile than

[08:22] simply holding your original bet. Football lines move constantly throughout the week and that's why middle betting can be such a great strategy during football season. Now, middle betting isn't just limited to a

[08:34] spread changing throughout the week. Player props can offer some of the best it's Sunday morning and the Bengals are getting ready to play and you see DraftKings offering Ja'Marr Chase's receiving yards prop line at 85 and 1/2

[08:47] receiving yards. But then you see FanDuel offering his receiving yards prop at 95 and 1/2 receiving yards. What you can do is take the over on DraftKings, the under on FanDuel, and if Ja'Marr Chase falls in the middle,

[08:59] you'll cash both bets. But what if Ja'Marr Chase has an awful receiving day and only has 30 receiving yards? Well, you're going to lose the over 85 and 1/2 receiving yards bet that you made on DraftKings, but you'll cash the under 95

[09:11] and 1/2 on FanDuel. And by going one and one on these props, you'll limit your losses. And the same thing can be said if he has a monster day and has 150 receiving yards. You're going to cash the over 85 and 1/2 on DraftKings, but

[09:24] lose the under 95 and 1/2 on FanDuel. But again, you're not losing that much bets. Middle betting is a great way to mitigate losses while having the opportunity to cash two bets on the same prop if the number lands in the middle.

[09:40] isn't just exciting because there are more games. It's exciting because there are more opportunities. Whether you're trying to lock in guaranteed profit with arbitrage betting, build long-term profitability with positive EV betting,

[09:53] or capitalize on line movement and sportsbooks simply setting player props completely off from each other with middle betting, football season is one of the best times to utilize these sharp betting strategies. And if you're

[10:05] serious about becoming a sharp sports better instead of just guessing who's going to win these college football and NFL games, I highly suggest getting on Odds Jam to utilize their tools and become a sharp sports better. If you

[10:17] link in the description of this episode that gives you a 7-day free trial and 35% off your first month. Just remember to use promo code TAILS. So, this football season promise yourself that you'll do one thing. Make sure you're

[10:31] betting the numbers and not just the teams.