My First Year on the Moscow Exchange — Mistakes, Numbers, Conclusions! Lesson 4

[00:02] I will tell you about the first year of the Moscow Exchange. What awaits you? This was waiting for me in due time, it will be waiting for you. We all make the same mistakes. For this reason, you need to watch this video to

[00:15] understand how to avoid these mistakes and , most importantly, how to identify them. Let me remind you that you are watching the fourth lesson in the series dedicated to the Moscow Exchange. You can scan one of these QR codes. It will take you to a full

[00:29] playlist with a free video course dedicated to the Moscow Exchange. If we talk about the main mistakes, of course, the main mistake is inflated just a couple of weeks they will earn themselves a huge mansion or a yacht.

[00:45] Then, over time, you realize that it would be cool to at least buy a house. Then you realize, well, 5,000 bucks a week would also be pretty good. Well, then you realize that in general everything is not as beautiful as they constantly

[00:59] say. And so, expecting quick money, underestimating how much you can earn in general, overestimating your abilities - this is the main problem that everyone faces. And since I decided to share a little of my story,

[01:14] I come from a poor family, but, you know, I don’t like to talk about this topic, you know, so that it doesn’t turn out like the infidels do when you listen to them. They always come from a poor family, and then they become rich. Yes, we all came from the nineties, we were all poor. At

[01:29] some point I realized for myself that I could no longer work as an esotericist, because I had lost faith. I was involved in esotericism for some time. I can't work as a lawyer because I do n't like it at all. I found a way for myself

[01:44] - financial markets. I thought that I would trade for six months, make a fortune and then live. in clover. Of course, nothing like that happened, but it became my life's work. And now I am 37 years old. Basically,

[01:58] I started doing this when I was 18 years old . And I still continue to do this . I myself am a rather stupid person, let's say so. My IQ is about a little above average, literally a little above average, but

[02:13] I would identify myself as a clearly unintelligent person. That is, I don’t have any particularly pronounced talents, skills, or abilities. I would n’t say about myself that I’m a talented person or anything like that. I'm

[02:27] ordinary, well, as they say on the internet now , normal, yes. Here I am, an ordinary normie, that is, I am an ordinary person, an ordinary man. Well, if I succeeded in it, then I think you will succeed even more. So I do

[02:39] n't even doubt it. The main mistake I made was overestimating myself and underestimating the circumstances. And this is a cognitive distortion. There are many distortions that explain this topic . One of them is the

[02:52] attribution error, also known as the planning error. The point is that we always overestimate ourselves. We believe that, firstly, everything depends on us. We overestimate our skills and experience and always feel in control of the situation. And here I can

[03:07] even use my example. When I started trading, I started seeing my first results. And when the first results appeared, that’s it, I immediately got a crown, I’m a trader now. Here. And by the way, how do you communicate with

[03:19] traders? Notice, they are all arrogant. And it's not just like that. Well, the arrogant ones started out as either super beginners or superficial ones. So , I immediately felt arrogant. I know everything. I've been earning money here for a

[03:33] [clears throat] But I thought that I already understood everything, that I info-gypsy, and I figured everything out here. Of course, this leads to you taking unnecessary risks. And most importantly, when you start

[03:50] losing, you can't accept that you are losing. And you can’t, well, I can say about myself, yes, I didn’t feel a moment that I was wrong in something, that I was right by definition. I learned to trade, I learned. Here I am, earning money,

[04:05] earning money. Therefore, if something goes wrong in the market, for example, me. Ultimately, this all naturally led to me taking on unnecessary risks, breaking the rules, stubbornly continuing to do things that shouldn't be done

[04:21] , and ultimately losing money. This went on for quite a long time, and twelfth or thirteenth year, I found myself a mentor who was quite cool for that period of time. And I studied in a group. And when I was studying, they really did a good job of

[04:36] setting my brain straight. And how did we fix it in their brains? The fact that you can lose money. This was the key realization I came across and one you all need to get your head around. You can do everything perfectly and still

[04:52] lose money - that's the kind of profession it is. Therefore, one cannot ignore chance and risk. You need to understand that anything can happen at any time . anything can happen. At the end of 2021, all market participants

[05:07] were buying the Russian stock market, and no one even suspected that a recession would begin, for example. The SVO began, the market fell by 40%. And such events are only on a small scale; they happen almost every week. And this must be kept in

[05:21] mind. For example, you opened a buy deal, and some politician comes out and makes some statement. Well, who could, who could get into the head of this politician and understand that he would make such a statement? No analysis

[05:34] can do this. There are accidents, we must admit that. And since there are random events, and we all make money on chaos, we need to plan all of this in advance and, of course, we need to constantly evaluate chance. It is important

[05:48] to remember that we always only have the probability of some movement. 100% does not exist. If you hear from some trader, blogger, or anyone else that the market will 100% do this or that

[06:02] , it means that this person either doesn’t understand, is an amateur, or will lose money in the very near future. So it's a matter of time. And here is an important point. Risk control is more important than profitability. This means that it seemed to me at the very, very

[06:16] beginning, and I think it will appear in you too . You feel like you're going to take on a . You feel like you're going to take on a lot of risk and, well, make a lot of money. And here is the concept of risk and profitability, they are connected.

[06:30] Let's assume this is the capital curve. Below we have risk, and here we have profitability. The greater the risk, the higher the potential return. And here there is such a curve, so to speak. But there are nuances here. There is another graph here, and it

[06:45] looks like this: profitability, and here is the probability. And the curve here looks like this: the higher the yield, the lower the probability. Roughly speaking, if you earned 10, 20-30% there in a day, it

[06:59] means that the probability that you would earn was not that great. In doing so, you will take on a large amount of risk. That is, either there is no profit or there is a loss. Experienced traders and investors

[07:11] always play with this and always try to find exactly what's ideal, so that both the profitability and the risk are more or less acceptable. Beginners don't know how to do this, and for beginners, for typical beginners, the

[07:25] profitability graph looks something like this. They take on a lot of risk, and as a result, they multiply their account literally in a couple of days, in a couple of weeks, and then this avalanche-like drain occurs. That is, in just a few transactions they

[07:39] lose everything. We'll talk about the yield chart and typical things like that For now, it's important to remember that one of the cognitive biases is that you will take a risk and earn a lot. You will not be able to earn a large

[07:54] capital in a week, a month, or a year. This will take a lot of time. You just have to accept it and take it step by step. The more you risk, the more you will lose. There is no risk here at all.

[08:09] Your initial goal is to have a more or less stable capital curve. Focus on the capital curves that I gave you in the previous lectures. That is, on such a capital curve, on such a capital curve,

[08:23] capital curve, on such a capital curve, so that your income graph grows more or less predictably. Let me remind you, I will leave you a link to this table. in the description and also in the comments for this QR code. You can also meet her. And

[08:36] here will be all the useful materials, useful links. The next cognitive distortion that I had, and you will have it , and I don’t know what it’s called exactly, is the belief that there is some smarter person. That is, the

[08:51] belief that there is some indicator that brings in money, that there is some trader who makes money, and now he, ah, will help us. I call it when a wizard suddenly arrives. That is, a wizard will suddenly arrive in a blue

[09:05] huge amount of money was lost precisely because of this. At one time I was sitting on an MMG forum, I think that’s what it was called. I don't know if it exists now. And we communicated, in fact, with

[09:18] colleagues. And there was a swindler, he called himself Zidane Ildar. And what did this same Zidane do? Naturally, like any loser. He had photos of, like , buying some expensive branded things, some

[09:35] business meeting, flights, all that stuff. And, naturally, there are photos of him with money, like he’s flying somewhere with money. Well, his life was a success. And I pay this scammer $1.00 to teach me about the financial

[09:51] trading strategy. and he gave his trading strategy, it looked like this . It is clear that it is generally impossible to make money from this. And on top of all this, he also gave me this picture, which, in fact ,

[10:07] described how to trade here. Naturally, there can be no talk of making any money with screenshots like these . That is, I was simply scammed, I was cheated out of my money. Therefore, it is very important not to trust anyone,

[10:20] especially in modern times, because all photographs are faked. is anonymity. It's always a scam. I assert that anyone who hides their identity, their persona, is a fraudster with 100%

[10:35] probability. For example, right now, at the time of filming this video, the great kryptan, White Ghost, Irdis the shadow sheikh, there is a huge mass of these Telegram channels. All roads lead either to Myanmar or to some other

[10:50] country. There are scammers there who are deceiving you. And the calculation is for a sucker. If a person hides his identity, then he is a fraud. The best way to determine whether a person is a scammer or not is to focus on profitability. And

[11:05] if a person, like I have provided here, has screenshots of their personal accounts, these are screenshots from personal accounts. If someone shows you amounts greater than mine, there's a high probability that they're a scammer. I tell you 100% , this is a scammer. You will lose money with him

[11:20] . I understand that now these guys will 100% tell you: "Well, this star, he's a Frenchman, he doesn't understand. I'm better than he earned." This is what you are telling someone else. I've been in the markets for 20 years, and I have a

[11:34] ton of certifications, licenses, and so on. I know how to trade. Anything more than this is a scam. File a police report, like and subscribe to the channel if you agree with me that anyone who

[11:47] hides their identity and doesn't reveal themselves is highly likely a themselves is highly likely a scammer. What else is important? It is important to separate trading into different accounts. One of the main mistakes a trader

[12:00] makes is creating his own brokerage account and mixing different methods in this brokerage account approaches, different trading strategies that he uses. something from investing, something from trading, everything will be mixed into one pile. As a result,

[12:15] problems arise. I had exactly the same problem when I had everything in one brokerage account. What ended up happening was that I had to close my investment positions to cover my trading positions. For

[12:30] this reason, a smart approach is to split your trading into different brokerage accounts, each with its own trading strategy. Here are all my brokerage accounts. Well, it’s not just for nothing that I have, it turns out, about nine accounts, but

[12:44] only in one company. Well, I don't do it for nothing. It's just that each trading strategy is traded on its own brokerage account. This needs to be done because later you will realize that you will not be able to separate and will not be able to be

[12:56] effective. When you stop looking for the best strategy, you start building a system. And these are completely different things. I can tell you even from my own experience. It was a big discovery for me that any trading strategies you

[13:10] find on the Internet, they all work. This will sound very strange, right, how is that This will sound very strange, right, how is that possible? How so? You will then hear from all the stories that this is an infocygan, that is an infocygan, this does not work, this works.

[13:23] work. They just work under certain conditions, under certain specific conditions that you need to know. And the main problem is that the trader, the investor does not understand these conditions and, accordingly, uses the wrong

[13:36] thing, in the wrong place and in the wrong direction, as they say, yes. Therefore, our main task, not only yours, but also mine, in particular, is stability and predictability. Stability and predictability can only be achieved through systematicity.

[13:51] That is, you have to make trades, they have to be worse than each other according to a certain strategy, of a certain kind, and you have to have a trade journal. I'll tell you how to work with statistics in the next video. For now, you

[14:06] need to understand that the transition to the system is clear entry and exit conditions and fixed risk. You must clearly understand what you are doing. There shouldn't be, you know, any kind of non-systemic trading. You must make completely

[14:20] systematic trades. Even if they are at a loss, they will be systematic. And this is important. Almost all people move in approximately the following vicious circle. A person makes one, two or three transactions, and, for example, the majority of these transactions, that is, two

[14:36] out of three, for example, end up in the red. As a result, the person thinks that, well, the system is somehow not right, and starts using a different trading system. makes one, two or three deals again. Something is going negative again. The system is wrong again.

[14:50] Moves back to another trading system. So it goes in circles. I have met people who have been in this circle for years, literally walking around for years. Any trading strategy and any system is tested over a long period of

[15:05] time. Depending on what it is: scalping or intraday trading. Everywhere there is some kind of sample of transactions and a long-term situation. You need to understand that what you are getting is not a short-term loss, but a part of a system

[15:20] or the system does not work specifically for you. I'll tell you how to choose a system in the next video. For now, I'll note that in order to avoid constantly getting into this vicious circle, I don't endlessly reinvent the wheel. We have our courses, in

[15:35] particular, a course on the grail of real trading. Scan it and check it out . It already tells you what to do specifically, and you won’t have to reinvent the wheel and, most importantly, waste a huge amount of

[15:47] time on it. Everything is collected in one place. It's important to remember that the first year really does decide everything. This is where the foundation of your trading and your overall opinion about this area is laid. If you lose money, it will be very difficult for you to get it back. That

[16:04] is, somewhere inside you it will become ingrained that this is all a scam. Well, I tried it, it didn’t work for me, it’s all complete [ __ ]. Believe me, it's not [ __ ], you just need to do it right. You know, I often like

[16:19] to give this example. Let's say you bought a car and you bought a Mercedes, for example, right? They got drunk into this Mercedes, drove off, and smashed this Mercedes. Can we say that all Mercedes cars are crap because you

[16:34] crashed them? Well, of course not. Of course, you're unlikely to say that. But this happens all the time with financial markets . A person, let's say, drunk, not understanding what exactly he's doing, comes to the exchange, loses money

[16:47] and then: "Ah, that's it, it's a scam, everyone's a scammer, that infocygan, that fraudster, it's all clear here, you can't make money," because you're doing everything wrong, so, naturally, you're not making money. I wish you to look

[17:00] at everything soberly. Make money. See you in new videos. Happily