Stock Market & Iran Response

[00:00] Let's get this all fired up. Here we go.

[00:03] Here we go. Got to talk about Iran's

[00:06] response coming in hot off the tape. Uh

[00:11] and uh sure enough, it's uh not ideal.

[00:15] Good old uh Iranians not very happy with

[00:18] wanting to make a deal with Trump, which

[00:20] I mean to some extent it's hard to blame

[00:23] the Iranians. uh you know we had a

[00:25] ceasefire last year and you know you can

[00:28] kind of uh look at it as um wow y'all

[00:31] just uh took a year to sort of uh or 9

[00:33] months to build up a bigger attack

[00:36] against us huh so uh Iran uh just

[00:39] responded

[00:41] uh this is just now coming across the

[00:43] tape so let's uh let's write this down

[00:45] together here as uh as we sort of watch

[00:48] the cues uh they just d dove down a

[00:52] little bit here as usual our morning

[00:54] momentum just can't really hold it.

[00:57] Can't really keep it up. But Iran just

[00:59] responded and said Iran will not allow

[01:02] US Trump to dictate the timing of the

[01:06] end of war. Uh we have uh Thrron

[01:11] uh will continue uh defending itself.

[01:17] Okay. Let's get the uh let's get the H

[01:19] in there.

[01:22] Okay.

[01:24] Then I have

[01:27] uh first Iranian condition

[01:34] end attacks and assassinations. Those

[01:38] are those targeted bombings.

[01:41] Uh defensive operations

[01:44] defensive operations will continue until

[01:48] then. So, in other words, uh, aka don't

[01:52] talk to us until you stop bombing us.

[01:58] I mean, sounds reasonable, but also

[02:02] implies that we're quite a bit further

[02:04] away. Uh Iran reviewed the 15ount

[02:08] proposal

[02:11] uh point proposal

[02:15] from uh US admin sent via uh Pakistan

[02:21] uh considers the proposal

[02:24] excessive.

[02:27] Okay.

[02:30] Iran will end the war at a time of

[02:35] its own choosing if and only if

[02:38] conditions are met.

[02:42] All right, send that into the Meet Kevin

[02:44] app there. So, not an ideal uh Iranian

[02:49] response. Likely also unsurprising.

[02:53] Keep in mind there's been a lot of talk

[02:55] about the missile program.

[02:59] Uh

[03:01] it it seems Trump

[03:03] uh and Israel want to keep fighting

[03:07] until the missile program is eliminated.

[03:11] uh whereas Iran

[03:14] uh sees the mil missile program

[03:18] as their only

[03:20] uh deterrent

[03:22] for future attacks and unlikely to

[03:27] uh want to negotiate that missile

[03:31] program away.

[03:34] So that does create sort of this

[03:39] diametric opposition between the two. Uh

[03:43] which is pretty remarkable.

[03:46] Okay, good. Let's go take a peek at

[03:50] some of the other coverage coming out

[03:52] out there.

[03:56] So

[03:58] see what we have. This is

[04:04] uh let's see. Let's see. Let's see here.

[04:07] Wow, that's crazy. Look at this missile

[04:10] in a schoolyard.

[04:12] As gas prices spike, California has hit

[04:14] the hardest. Yep,

[04:16] that's not a surprise. California has a

[04:18] lot of additional taxes uh on top of uh

[04:23] gasoline prices.

[04:29] Yeah. and they still can't get that DHS

[04:31] shutdown uh figured out which is also

[04:35] quite remarkable.

[04:38] Let's see what live updates we have

[04:40] here. So the live blog suggests

[04:48] general secretary of NATO is often

[04:50] called the Trump whisperer able to mix

[04:52] public flattery with private advice.

[04:57] even called Trump and the alliances

[05:00] daddy before last year's NATO summit.

[05:04] All right. Israel's missiles have been

[05:06] working to intercept.

[05:09] UN calls this conflict an unprecedented

[05:12] says this conflict has an unprecedented

[05:14] power to unsnare countries across

[05:16] borders and around the world. Right.

[05:18] Well, I mean, if this goes on for too

[05:20] long, I think it's everybody's pretty

[05:22] well convinced this is a uh uh, you

[05:25] know, recession inducing conflict, but

[05:28] hopefully we, you know, we don't get

[05:29] there.

[05:34] Let's see here. US carrier.

[05:41] Okay. Yeah, Trump says that 100 missiles

[05:45] were fired towards the US carrier. The

[05:48] military says a few missiles were fired

[05:50] towards the carrier, but none of them

[05:51] came close. They were all shot down. I'm

[05:54] not sure sometimes where Donnie T gets

[05:56] his numbers from, but there there's

[05:59] generally not a lack of entertainment in

[06:01] his storytelling.

[06:04] Uh, Iran Iran demands establishment of

[06:08] concrete guarantee preventing resurgence

[06:11] of war. Uh,

[06:14] yeah.

[06:17] That's understandable

[06:20] from the Iranian regime. Iranian regime

[06:23] wants concrete guarantee

[06:26] uh preventing resurgence of war. Yeah.

[06:35] Totally reasonable.

[06:38] ECB is prepared to raise interest rates

[06:40] if the energy s shock spurred by the war

[06:43] significantly pushes up inflation.

[06:47] Christine Lagard said at a conference,

[06:49] "We will not act before we have

[06:51] sufficient information on the size of

[06:53] the shock, but we will not be paralyzed

[06:56] by hesitation."

[06:59] That's an interesting line on uh on and

[07:03] that's to some extent what markets are

[07:04] pricing in now is I think we've got like

[07:06] a 50% chance of a uh of a rate hike in

[07:10] the United States as well.

[07:14] Uh

[07:16] right so

[07:19] golly

[07:21] says that Iran is closely monitoring

[07:25] all US movements in the region. This

[07:28] comes right after this talk about

[07:30] deploying 2,000 paratroopers.

[07:34] Oh, Iran is also demanding payment for

[07:37] war damage.

[07:40] Uh, Iran is also demanding payment for

[07:44] war damages.

[07:48] Uh, must be hard to negotiate when more

[07:51] troops are being sent to the region. uh

[07:56] implies uh negotiations may not be in

[07:59] good faith

[08:01] and that's that's a big concern is that

[08:03] you know do the Iranians actually

[08:06] believe the Trump administration is

[08:07] negotiating in good faith. What do we

[08:10] have here? Israel military issued sixth

[08:12] warning of incoming missiles.

[08:16] Property damage so far but no

[08:17] fatalities. Jeez, what a mass.

[08:21] It's sad.

[08:26] All right,

[08:31] intercepting more missiles. Yeah, lot

[08:34] lot a lot of missiles and drones still

[08:37] being fired.

[08:39] China's foreign minister spoke with the

[08:41] Iranian counterpart on Tuesday in a

[08:44] phone call uh and he said that hoped he

[08:46] hoped all sides would seize every

[08:48] opportunity for peace. Right. Well, that

[08:51] means nothing.

[08:54] Pentagon has ordered about 2,000

[08:55] soldiers from the 82nd Airborne.

[08:58] It's a force of 3,000. So, they sent

[09:01] 2,000 of the three.

[09:04] Okay, fine. Let's try uh the journal.

[09:08] Oh, did you did you all see this

[09:09] Volkswagen piece right here? Uh

[09:12] Volkswagen

[09:13] in talks with Israel's Iron Dome maker

[09:17] uh to shift from cars to missile

[09:19] defense.

[09:23] That's pretty remarkable. That's sort of

[09:25] like a Defense Production Act style work

[09:28] here.

[09:30] Volkswagen is in talks with Israel's

[09:33] Raphael Advanced Defense System over a

[09:36] deal that would switch production from

[09:38] cars to missile defense.

[09:42] ONAB. Wow. Planned to make components

[09:47] for their Iron Dome system. Wow.

[09:53] Profits have plunged in the car industry

[09:55] thanks to German or Chinese competition.

[09:58] Yeah,

[09:59] understandable. They're hoping to save

[10:01] all 2,300 jobs at the plant.

[10:06] Let's go take a look at this. This isn't

[10:08] far from where I've got family.

[10:14] A castle garden. I want to go to a

[10:16] castle garden.

[10:20] Let's open this puppy up. I get it.

[10:23] Yeah, there it is.

[10:26] So,

[10:27] yeah, just past Müster.

[10:33] Interesting. So, and then also let's

[10:36] type in Volkswagen plant.

[10:40] Volkswagen Hall 81.

[10:45] Oh, right by the railard. Look at that.

[10:47] That's really cool.

[10:49] Wow. This is like a Oh, yeah. Look at

[10:50] all the cars on the on the rail. Oh,

[10:54] that's awesome. A train station right

[10:57] here. Taking all the Volkswagen cars

[11:00] right out.

[11:02] That's really cool. They got their own

[11:03] train station.

[11:05] Yeah, you can just take it from here and

[11:08] go load them up onto a onto a track.

[11:11] Yeah, look at that right here. That

[11:13] almost looks like a ramp. See, they

[11:15] could pull like the flatbed part of the

[11:17] train right up and then you could

[11:19] literally just drive the car

[11:23] uh right onto the train.

[11:26] That's my guess. Like this would be like

[11:28] a loading track maybe. You know, goes

[11:31] over here, backs up, and then you're

[11:33] you're in here. Yeah. See, here's your

[11:35] flat. That's very cool.

[11:40] That's awesome.

[11:42] Car factory reviews

[11:45] super

[11:47] car transporters.

[11:51] Oh wow, look at that. They even mapped

[11:54] it out.

[11:58] There is no control. Call them and then

[12:00] wait who knows how long. It's a mess.

[12:14] Okay. Uh anyway, very interesting. So

[12:20] this facility, the consideration

[12:23] is to switch these folks from auto

[12:26] manufacturing

[12:28] to Iron Dome defense.

[12:33] Wow.

[12:35] major return to weaponry for Volkswagen

[12:42] which produced military vehicles and the

[12:45] V1 flying bomb for Hitler. Wait, what is

[12:49] the V1 flying bomb? Oh, it's the world's

[12:53] first operational cruise missile used by

[12:56] Nazi Germany.

[12:58] Wow.

[13:01] So, it looks like a plane, but it's

[13:04] actually just a bomb.

[13:07] That's wild.

[13:09] Various iron dome parts.

[13:17] That is quite interesting.

[13:20] All right. Well,

[13:24] let's take a screenshot of that. I think

[13:26] that's very interesting.

[13:28] Grab that.

[13:30] And uh

[13:32] I'll make a little note on that. So this

[13:34] is uh Israel

[13:36] um potentially partnering with.

[13:40] So Israel uh and Volkswagen

[13:45] what what they say first time first time

[13:47] since World War II that Volkswagen

[13:51] uh made military uh components. Uh wait

[13:54] but aren't they making military vehicles

[13:56] still? Uh already makes military trucks.

[13:59] Yeah.

[14:01] Oh, this returns to a return to

[14:03] weaponry. Ah, made uh weapons

[14:07] would be the first time would be the

[14:12] first time since World War II that

[14:13] Volkswagen made weapon weapon components

[14:21] possible. Uh VW US I want to steal the

[14:27] uh

[14:29] letters there. VW might become an iron

[14:34] dome uh component maker for Israel.

[14:41] And this is I think 20 what they say

[14:43] 2600 staff 2300 staff.

[14:52] 2300 staff.

[14:54] Uh Volkswagen

[14:57] made flying bomb. The V1

[15:03] flying bomb in World War II.

[15:06] What was that? The what they say? The

[15:08] world's first cruise missile.

[15:11] I think that's what we looked up.

[15:14] It was world's first operational cruise

[15:17] missile.

[15:19] uh world's first operational cruise

[15:22] missile uh which implies powered through

[15:26] uh the duration of its flight, right?

[15:28] Like if you compare to a ballistic uh

[15:32] missile is only powered uh for a portion

[15:36] of its flight and then uh the that's the

[15:40] ballistic nature of the missile is it's

[15:42] powered and then the rest is just the

[15:44] arc. It's sort of like you lobbed it up

[15:47] and then the rest is just basically

[15:48] falling. Kind of interesting. Okay. Uh

[15:53] all right. Iran's also coming out and

[15:55] now saying

[15:57] All right. There's a little bit more

[15:58] here. So Iran demands,

[16:01] let's write it down. Iran demands

[16:05] recognition of Tran's sovereignty over

[16:09] the strait

[16:11] uh of Hormuz. That sort of implies that

[16:14] they want to keep taxing it, right? Uh

[16:17] implies Iran wants to keep taxing,

[16:21] controlling,

[16:22] permitting

[16:24] uh the strait. I I don't I don't know

[16:29] that the US is going to be okay with

[16:31] that. Toron wants the end of the war.

[16:35] Yeah. And also wants the end to the war

[16:38] to resistance groups.

[16:41] also wants uh Iraqi and

[16:45] Lebanese uh resistance groups to stop

[16:49] coming under fire. And a lot of this has

[16:52] to do with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which

[16:56] is just getting bombarded by uh by

[16:59] Israel right now.

[17:02] Okay, let's go to the journal.

[17:06] So, Iran plays hard ball. I think that's

[17:10] those are just sort of the updates that

[17:11] we just got,

[17:15] but we'll double check.

[17:21] Iran suspected of directing attacks in

[17:23] Europe. We'll have to take a look at

[17:24] that.

[17:31] All right. And then how how's the market

[17:33] surviving? Uh the Q's recovered. Yeah,

[17:36] after the statement came out from Iran,

[17:38] you actually got a little bit of a

[17:39] recovery here. Yeah, even on TLT.

[17:49] All right,

[17:50] let's jump into here. Yeah, dollar being

[17:53] up on dis. Well, I mean, there's still

[17:56] the expectation that rates in the United

[17:59] States will be higher than anywhere else

[18:00] in the world. uh because the US economy

[18:03] is the strongest and so the dollar has

[18:06] been moving up as sort of a trade

[18:11] uh because of that anticipation that the

[18:13] Fed might hike rates and we might end up

[18:16] with some of the highest rates in the

[18:17] world.

[18:19] We're you know we've been pretty high on

[18:20] rates so far relative to everyone else

[18:22] as well.

[18:25] Hey Kevin, how do you like that switch

[18:26] from coffee to tea? I like it a lot. No,

[18:29] it's a lot more moderate. So,

[18:33] um, doesn't taste as bad as coffee. You

[18:36] know, coffee is pretty bitter when you

[18:38] just have it black, which I do. Uh, and,

[18:41] uh, tea's not that bad at all.

[18:47] Like, if you're used to that black

[18:50] coffee bitterness, you don't mind

[18:52] steeping your tea forever.

[18:54] Doesn't get anywhere close to coffee.

[18:56] Anyway, mediators from Turkey, Egypt,

[18:58] Pakistan are pushing for a meeting

[19:00] between the US and Iranians, but Tran

[19:02] displayed defiance.

[19:04] Right.

[19:06] Uh Iran's military spokesman suggested

[19:09] the US was negotiating with itself to

[19:12] get out of strategic defeat.

[19:15] Nice. How'd they say that?

[19:24] Uh, comments relayed. Somebody like us

[19:28] will never get along with somebody like

[19:30] you. Not now. Not ever. Well, that's not

[19:33] great.

[19:40] That's Yeah. So, you know, basically

[19:45] Iran is under the impression that

[19:47] they're the boss of the region.

[19:50] Uh

[19:52] they're the boss of the region and the

[19:56] regional superpower

[19:58] uh with their military,

[20:02] you know,

[20:07] uh some quotes

[20:12] uh on Iran.

[20:16] Okay. So,

[20:19] someone like us will never get along

[20:21] with someone like you until you

[20:22] understand stability in the region is

[20:24] guaranteed by Iran's army.

[20:32] Yeah, let's reword this a little bit.

[20:34] But this is very interesting.

[20:36] All of these here. So,

[20:39] who was this again? This was a

[20:48] comments related by the state news

[20:50] agency.

[20:51] Okay,

[20:55] let's jot some of these down here

[21:05] and snag the journal link.

[21:11] Uh there's there's almost

[21:15] an I like it's it's not about money

[21:18] here. It's almost an ideological

[21:21] uh play. Uh Iran wants to be the boss of

[21:25] the region. Maybe that's why the Saudis

[21:32] uh say keep going, seize the historic

[21:36] opportunity

[21:37] uh and remake the region. Right. Maybe

[21:40] the Saudis are kind of tired of Iran,

[21:43] too.

[21:47] Nice. I tried that transition. Just feel

[21:49] less productive. Need that caffeine

[21:50] boost. Yeah. Yeah. You have to have more

[21:52] tea. That's the problem. You know, it's

[21:54] probably what it's probably like a 3:1

[21:56] ratio. I mean, you're certainly going to

[21:58] get more uh liquid intakes

[22:01] that way, right? Uh most assembly plants

[22:05] have trained right next to Yeah, makes

[22:06] sense. PWTO was awesome to visit as a

[22:10] kid in Wolfsburg. Oh, that's cool. We

[22:13] talked about the dollar. War sucks. Lost

[22:16] my dad during the invasion on Iraq in

[22:17] 03. That sucks. I'm sorry to hear that.

[22:22] They call They called a forever war

[22:24] against uh the West back when the first

[22:27] catalyst, right, during the uh uh or

[22:30] after the Israel invasion.

[22:34] More tea. I hear you. Yeah, exactly.

[22:36] More tea. Tired. more tea. What's up,

[22:37] Tom? So,

[22:42] yeah, I don't know. This is uh they they

[22:44] seem diametrically opposed.

[22:48] Uh this is this is so different than

[22:52] uh feels so different

[22:55] than negotiating uh money with China,

[22:59] you know, tariffs. It's it's really

[23:04] um how should I put it

[23:09] built into the the belief that you know

[23:11] Iran is the superpower of the region.

[23:14] What is this? Iran suspected of

[23:16] directing attacks in Europe creating

[23:17] bogus group to claim responsibility.

[23:21] Authorities are investigating Iran's

[23:23] involvement in a string of terrorist

[23:24] attacks in Europe that have targeted

[23:27] Jewish sites.

[23:33] Uh

[23:37] yeah,

[23:39] apparently the Islamic Movement of

[23:42] Righteous Companions

[23:45] potentially made up.

[23:53] Wow.

[23:59] charred remains of an ambulance in

[24:01] London. Oh yeah. Wow.

[24:06] So

[24:08] March 23rd, a group claimed

[24:10] responsibility for torching a car in the

[24:11] Jewish district of Antworp

[24:16] ambulance in London.

[24:19] Dutch authorities on the 22nd said they

[24:22] foiled an attack on a synagogue.

[24:24] multiple explosive devices were

[24:26] discovered. Belgian investigators are

[24:28] examining whether incidents on their

[24:29] soil were directed by Iran or if dormant

[24:32] cells were activated. See, nobody wants

[24:35] to hear that. This whole like

[24:38] sleeper cell

[24:40] concern. None of that is good.

[24:54] Yeah,

[24:58] refugees from the Middle East have been

[25:00] arrested carrying addresses and

[25:02] photographs of Israeli targets. Oh, wow.

[25:04] Look at that. So, you've got Palestinian

[25:07] and Lebanese militias linked people as

[25:10] well as European-born criminals and

[25:12] refugees from the Middle East have been

[25:14] arrested carrying addresses and

[25:16] photographs of Israeli targets.

[25:18] Wow.

[25:21] War sucks.

[25:27] Uh, okay. So,

[25:32] what else we got here? Gives us a little

[25:34] bit of cover here on

[25:39] Iran.

[25:48] Okay, let's go look at the info because

[25:50] I know there's some talk about

[25:52] potentially moving up the SpaceX IPO.

[25:56] 2-year Treasury at 388. Pretty stable,

[26:01] actually.

[26:03] And

[26:05] oh, we're still down on the 10-year

[26:06] Treasury. 3.34. That's good. That's

[26:10] good. Look at that. Back over 590 here

[26:12] on the cues.

[26:15] trying to get back to 400 on Tesla.

[26:18] Okay.

[26:20] AMD had a great bounce right off of uh

[26:23] 200. It's up like what is it at? Two

[26:27] Yeah, it's at about 220 now. It's about

[26:29] a 10% bounce off the 200 line. We were

[26:32] talking about that in the alpha report

[26:33] yesterday. Okay. So,

[26:37] Meta Platform, more layoffs. So many

[26:40] layoffs. It it's remarkable how we could

[26:42] get all these layoffs and then we still

[26:43] got the ADP report yesterday that

[26:49] uh you know we grew 10,000 jobs for the

[26:52] week ending March 7th. Still remarkable

[26:54] to me. What was the President Trump got?

[26:56] Well, it was never clearly articulated,

[26:58] but the assumption was that it had to do

[27:00] with non-hostile ships being able to

[27:02] trans um transit the straight of Hermuz

[27:06] that uh that announcement was sort of

[27:10] the uh the promise to Trump, if you

[27:12] will.

[27:15] Could have been something else, but

[27:16] that's what uh seems to be the current

[27:19] thought. Okay. Yeah. Here's the IPO

[27:24] filing talk.

[27:30] Let's take a look at this. So, this is

[27:32] the SpaceX

[27:34] rumor basically. And the rumor now is

[27:37] that SpaceX might try to IP file their

[27:39] IPO confidentially as soon as this week

[27:42] or next week, which basically means Elon

[27:45] is trying to press this along as fast as

[27:48] humanly possible.

[27:55] Yeah, this isn't going to happen. Uh,

[27:57] Iran

[28:01] Iran demands

[28:04] determination and guarantee

[28:07] guaranteed payment

[28:10] for war damage.

[28:12] Yeah right.

[28:16] Do you imagine Trump paying them?

[28:21] Okay,

[28:24] so

[28:26] maybe that's why more troops are coming.

[28:28] Advisers involved in the preparation

[28:30] predict the company could try to raise

[28:32] more than $75 billion.

[28:36] Wow. Uh

[28:39] that would raise that would surpass all

[28:42] money raised by US IPOs last year. Holy

[28:45] smokes. Going to be the largest IPO for

[28:47] a long time. SpaceX filings may show it

[28:51] losing money after absorbing XAI,

[28:56] but many investment firms are reluctant

[28:58] to bet against Musk. Yep, true.

[29:08] SpaceX individual investor portion might

[29:11] exceed 20%, final numbers left to left

[29:14] or um yet to be finalized. The company

[29:17] will not have a standard six-month

[29:19] lockup period. Wow.

[29:24] The rule prevents insiders from selling

[29:25] shares all at once, depressing a stock

[29:27] price. Sounds to me like Elon Elon might

[29:30] need to raise some money himself.

[29:34] The arrangement is still being sorted

[29:36] out. Wow.

[29:39] No lockup either, so you can instantly

[29:42] dump.

[29:46] All right. So, let's go back over here.

[29:49] We've got the Q's

[29:52] roughly where we opened, you know,

[29:55] roughly a little lower there on TLT, but

[29:58] roughly where we opened.

[30:02] Okay,

[30:04] let's see.

[30:06] Let's go to the FT. And then, you know

[30:08] what? Maybe even the Economist. Let's

[30:10] see what the Economist has for us. So

[30:12] the economist this morning says markets

[30:14] are gripped by cognitive dissonance.

[30:18] Tell me what you mean.

[30:22] Uh

[30:23] what a battle for reopening her moose

[30:25] would look like.

[30:27] Painful.

[30:29] And take a quick look at that.

[30:34] Marco Rubian the chameleon in the war

[30:36] room.

[30:43] Uh,

[30:45] all right. Let's grab this one as well.

[30:54] Okay. See what we have here. So, Trump's

[30:56] latest climb down suggests he wants to

[30:58] end the war.

[31:02] This was the five-day pause. Less than

[31:04] an hour later, the IDF said planes were

[31:07] currently striking targets.

[31:10] Uh but Trump also claimed that America

[31:14] was in talks with Iran about a complete

[31:16] and total resolution.

[31:22] Trump did the rounds.

[31:26] But Trump's climb down could also

[31:27] suggest a signal a divergence in Israel

[31:31] and America's goals. Oh yeah, totally.

[31:34] Israel wants to keep this thing going.

[31:38] You know, they this is an opportunity

[31:40] for them. Critical step towards

[31:42] neutralizing Iran's military threat is

[31:45] Israel's point of view. Nuclear program,

[31:47] ballistic missile program. They don't

[31:49] want to end this, but you know, Trump's

[31:51] kind of got wrapped into this where I he

[31:54] probably thinks he can't really leave

[31:55] Israel hanging right now.

[31:59] Trump's focus is trying to avoid the

[32:02] global energy crisis, hence the

[32:04] optimism. I agree with that.

[32:12] Uh let's see here.

[32:17] American and Israeli war planners did

[32:19] not begin the war thinking Trump would

[32:22] be in it for the long run. His record

[32:25] suggests a preference for speedy, flashy

[32:27] operations like Maduro. Yeah. Or last

[32:30] summer with the B2 bombers.

[32:34] Israeli ministers began to believe that

[32:36] Trump would stick with it as long as

[32:38] Israel wanted.

[32:41] On the 22nd, Israel said that they were

[32:43] only halfway through

[32:47] and it would continue through

[32:50] basically April 8th.

[32:56] uh

[33:00] Trump's how long it's going and Trump's

[33:03] latest climb down undermine the idea

[33:04] that Iran is fragile.

[33:07] True. True. I mean, they've they've held

[33:11] up.

[33:15] Okay.

[33:17] Reopen the straight

[33:20] three-phase plan.

[33:23] Hunting down military assets from the

[33:25] Iranians is one.

[33:28] The hunters are mainly aircraft but may

[33:30] soon include ground troops. The second

[33:34] phase is sweeping for mines.

[33:37] And the last one

[33:39] would be escorting.

[33:42] Each stage could take several weeks. So

[33:44] it's possible that's why troops are

[33:46] going to the region as well.

[33:59] Yeah, Robert, sorry you're dealing with

[34:01] transmission issues. It's, you know, it

[34:02] seems like once a car starts going down

[34:04] the path of needing repairs, you fix one

[34:07] thing and then another thing breaks, it

[34:09] it it's really annoying and frustrating.

[34:12] Um, but it's also it's tough to to go

[34:15] down to one car, right? Maybe it works

[34:18] for your situation, but what I see a lot

[34:19] of people do in this situation is, you

[34:21] know, they end up getting they sell a

[34:23] car, they feel good, they pay off debt,

[34:25] and then, you know, 3 months later

[34:27] they're at a car dealership going into

[34:29] even way more debt than they had before.

[34:32] So, it almost makes me wonder, you know,

[34:34] is there like a used Corolla or

[34:37] something that that you could buy? Uh I

[34:40] wonder how much those puppies are

[34:41] selling for these days. Used Toyota

[34:44] Corolla. Oh, man. Man, look at that.

[34:49] 11,000 mi. Carvana Ventura. I'm at 23K.

[34:55] Yeah, but that's a lot here. For 9

[34:57] grand, 10 grand, I could get a 67,000

[35:01] milei Corolla,

[35:06] man. For under for under a rack of 10.

[35:11] And what year is this puppy? I know it's

[35:12] 67,000 miles.

[35:16] You basically got a selfie of this

[35:18] person. Anyway, uh 2017 uh that's kind

[35:21] of old. Yeah, that's already 9 years

[35:24] old. But uh

[35:27] I think there are plenty of good deals

[35:28] of cars out there. Just have to kind of

[35:32] look around.

[35:35] How much is a new Corolla these days?

[35:38] Toyota Corolla.

[35:41] Not that necessarily have to get new,

[35:43] but I just want to see the delta. Like

[35:45] how much you actually saving. Uh, so

[35:49] view dealer inventory. Sure, whatever.

[35:52] Let's see.

[36:01] And then we'll get back to So, oh wow.

[36:04] Yeah, they're 24,000 bucks on the low

[36:07] end,

[36:10] you know. Then you got delivery fees and

[36:13] taxes and all the crap. It's $30 30

[36:16] grand before you're out the door. It's a

[36:19] lot.

[36:21] I mean, at that point, yeah, you're

[36:23] right. If you're going to spend 30 grand

[36:24] on a Corolla, you know, what is a used

[36:27] Tesla Model 3 look like?

[36:30] Let's see. Vehicles

[36:34] pre-owned inventory.

[36:38] Model 3.

[36:40] Wow, look at that.

[36:42] 2018 Model 3, 17 grand, 87,000 miles. I

[36:46] mean, those are a lot of miles.

[36:50] You're going to have fewer service

[36:52] issues but

[36:54] some of these are old. What if I wanted

[36:57] something that was newer?

[36:59] Like, I don't know, give me something

[37:00] that's like 2023.

[37:04] 2023 23K. That's still less than than

[37:09] the new Corolla

[37:11] and some of the newer used ones. 35,000

[37:15] uh miles. It's not bad at all. Still

[37:18] pretty dang new.

[37:25] Yeah. But wait, includes include

[37:28] estimated there. Uh 25. Yeah. Once you

[37:31] all

[37:34] Yeah. Anyway. All right. All right. So,

[37:35] where were we? So, we looked at this. We

[37:39] looked at this. What do we have here?

[37:41] Markets are gripped by an alarming

[37:44] cognitive dissonance. Okay. So, we

[37:45] talked about Trump. We talked about how

[37:47] to reopen the straight. Now, we're

[37:49] looking at this cognitive dissonance.

[37:51] Every buyer needs a seller.

[37:55] Uh, let's see here. For now,

[38:00] let's see here. No one knows when the

[38:02] straight will reopen.

[38:05] blah blah blah.

[38:10] Come on. Should a nightmare scenario

[38:12] unfold with the Gulf War lasting months

[38:13] or years? An energy shock plunging the

[38:16] world into recession? That would be bad.

[38:22] That would be the night scenario.

[38:24] Nightmare scenario. Share prices have

[38:26] fallen but on big bonuses and having a

[38:27] correction territory.

[38:29] America's S&P 500 is still within a few%

[38:31] of all-time high.

[38:33] Many of the people who are bidding it

[38:35] there meanwhile are sitting mere deaths

[38:37] away from commodity analysts discussing

[38:39] the the disast disastrous consequences

[38:42] for the world. Right? So basically

[38:46] there's this idea of like hey if this

[38:48] keeps going on

[38:50] the energy shock will go will push the

[38:53] world into a nasty recession. Meanwhile

[38:56] the S&P 500 is just a few points from

[38:58] alltime highs. So, how do you have both

[39:02] of these going on? Basically, that's

[39:04] what the economist is saying here. What

[39:06] on earth is going on?

[39:08] Well, that's why I I look at the bond

[39:09] market, too. I I I really try to pay

[39:11] attention to the bond market more than

[39:13] just the movement and the cues or

[39:14] whatever.

[39:23] All right. Well, the economists didn't

[39:26] really have a conclusion for it. It

[39:27] seems like they were just sort of

[39:28] observing it. Uh you've got here

[39:33] still a decline in a 10-year though.

[39:35] You're down 6.4 basis points now, right?

[39:41] That's uh that's pretty wild.

[39:44] Which in a positive way and that's

[39:47] despite even the two years down and

[39:49] that's despite them uh you know

[39:51] announcing that uh you know they're not

[39:53] interested in in our deal.

[39:58] Uh oil still sitting at about a hundred

[40:00] bucks on Brent. Okay, let's go take a

[40:04] peek at the FT. What's the FT got for

[40:06] us?

[40:13] Tumbling gold prices have put haven

[40:16] status in doubt.

[40:18] Yeah.

[40:28] Let's see here.

[40:33] War empties Dubai malls rattles

[40:36] struggling luxury industry.

[40:43] Yeah.

[40:45] Okay. Not much actually on the FT here.

[40:48] I mean, the Volkswagen piece over here

[40:50] was very interesting,

[40:52] but not much uh majorly new here. Let's

[40:57] try the doomers.

[41:00] Doomers.

[41:02] They want reparations. New York City

[41:04] possible strike by 34,000.

[41:08] Let's see here. Saudi

[41:11] Saudi surges oil exports.

[41:15] They get, you know, that's the other

[41:16] thing with the Saudis. if you think

[41:18] about it is

[41:21] they might benefit

[41:24] quite substantially actually

[41:26] uh from uh these higher oil prices.

[41:32] So,

[41:34] uh,

[41:36] the longer the war goes on,

[41:39] longer the war goes on, the more Saudis

[41:45] can sell expensive oil.

[41:50] Little jaded probably.

[41:53] Oops. I think I put that in

[41:57] yesterday's piece. Let me put that

[42:00] up here

[42:02] where we were talking about the Saudis

[42:04] as well.

[42:08] Okay,

[42:11] Arlay. Yeah, th this is that credit

[42:14] tightening by the way that's happening

[42:22] right here.

[42:25] Barclays is scaling back its assets back

[42:28] assetbacked lending.

[42:30] British bank is focusing shifting focus

[42:33] to loans and securizations for larger

[42:35] corporates as opposed to basically

[42:39] private credit.

[42:41] Uh downfall of MFS and subprime lender

[42:45] have put a spotlight on lending to

[42:47] non-bank entities.

[42:49] Yeah, much of this lending is private

[42:51] without input from ratings firms. And I

[42:54] think there was also a a note from the

[42:56] SEC questioning ratings lately.

[43:04] Let me see here.

[43:09] Yep, here it is. SEC raises questions

[43:12] over rating agency behind private credit

[43:14] boom. whether Egan and Jones, the small

[43:18] credit rating provider, had come under

[43:19] fire for its grades on private credit

[43:21] loans,

[43:24] whether or not they can consistently

[43:26] produce credit ratings with integrity.

[43:28] Yikes.

[43:30] Raises questions

[43:32] about the adequacy of their managerial

[43:35] resources.

[43:37] Hey, yeah, we'll give you a rating.

[43:39] We'll just slap it on there. Just pay us

[43:41] more.

[43:48] Banks often provide uh warehouse

[43:50] facilities to non-banks to fund lending

[43:52] products which are packaged into asset

[43:55] back securities and sold to investors.

[44:04] Uh

[44:06] blah blah blah blah blah. Yeah, this

[44:08] sort of credit tightening though,

[44:11] it takes a while to show up on like the

[44:13] St. Louis Fed. St. Louis Fred credit

[44:18] tightening, but once it does it it's

[44:21] usually not great. It's just Yeah. See,

[44:25] right now you're not actually showing

[44:26] that. This is on credit cards. Credit

[44:28] cards you're basically flat. So, you're

[44:30] not seeing any tightening. You usually

[44:32] see tightening going into the recessions

[44:34] at the start of recessions. So, you're

[44:36] not seeing that yet. Tightening

[44:39] standards,

[44:41] commercial and industrial loans. Yeah,

[44:43] it's still not showing up over here. And

[44:46] this seems to be monthly, quarterly

[44:48] data. Oh, so it it'll take a while to

[44:50] really show up into in stuff like this.

[44:53] You won't really get uh that information

[44:56] timely.

[45:01] Uh let's see here. What else?

[45:06] Egypt's foreign minister says we have a

[45:09] plan to continue efforts.

[45:16] Yeah.

[45:18] And we got the Iran update earlier.

[45:23] All right, let's go take a look at the

[45:24] market again.

[45:27] Uh, okay. Look at this. So, this is TLT.

[45:30] Nice recovery here as yields are coming

[45:32] down helping uh helping loft up stocks

[45:37] which is very good.

[45:39] And uh

[45:43] what else is going on out there? Let's

[45:45] go take a peek at uh let's go to like

[45:49] axios or political. Let's go look at

[45:50] those for a moment. Iran rejects the

[45:53] 15point plan. Yes, that we know.

[46:01] Iran suspects peace talk is just another

[46:04] trick. Yeah, we talked about that

[46:06] yesterday. This this fear which to some

[46:09] extent is rational that Iranians have

[46:13] told mediators

[46:15] that the US's military movement

[46:18] increased suspicion that this proposal

[46:20] is just a ruse.

[46:25] Trump has a hand open for a deal and the

[46:29] other is a fist waiting to punch you in

[46:31] the effing face.

[46:35] Uh, okay. That was a Trump adviser who

[46:37] said that. Yeah. Come here. Come here.

[46:39] Take it. Take it. Take it. Boom. Pow.

[46:43] I could see that.

[46:52] Yeah, that's that's a useful quote.

[46:56] And then we have the rejection over

[46:58] here. This is what we just covered.

[47:02] Yeah. Getting the compensation part is

[47:05] going to be wild. But also, it's not

[47:07] just that.

[47:09] It's compensation and it's also the

[47:12] ballistic missile program. Those are

[47:15] going to be issues.

[47:21] So then uh let's try political. Oh,

[47:24] sometimes Wapo has something too.

[47:28] Try both.

[47:33] Uh let's see.

[47:36] Lawmakers introduced bill to prohibit

[47:38] members of Congress and the president

[47:40] from trading in prediction markets.

[47:42] Yeah. Well, good luck getting anything

[47:44] passed in Congress right now.

[47:49] housing crypto trade. House Republicans

[47:52] shoot it down. House Republicans are

[47:53] rejecting a proposal of accepting the

[47:55] Senate's housing package in exchange for

[47:57] the upper chamber, including uh

[48:00] basically you know the Clarity Act.

[48:04] Yeah, I don't think they're going to get

[48:06] anything passed anymore this year.

[48:11] Trump showed classified map

[48:14] to passengers on his pl private plane.

[48:18] Yeah, I mean I I think Donald Trump does

[48:22] not believe any rules really apply to

[48:24] him. So I I I don't doubt that Iran. But

[48:29] I also

[48:31] that's not the topic for today. US plan

[48:35] to end war seeks removal of Iran's

[48:38] enriched uranium.

[48:41] Yes,

[48:42] we just have to find it

[48:46] unless uh they want to give it to us.

[48:48] 15-point plan. Where's the uranium?

[48:52] The uranium.

[48:56] Several Middle Eastern officials said

[48:57] the plan offered extensive sanctions

[48:59] relief to Iran in exchange

[49:02] for removal of highlyenriched uranium

[49:05] and

[49:07] the abandonment of the um enrichment pro

[49:11] uh capabilities limits to the ballist

[49:14] missile program ballistic missile

[49:15] program. They don't want limits.

[49:26] Ah.

[49:28] All right. Well,

[49:30] we shall see. So far, you know, markets

[49:34] at least decently happy today, which is

[49:36] good. Uh it's been it's been too long

[49:39] since we've had a good green day. So,

[49:41] we'll take a little bit of the optimism,

[49:43] but uh I I'd still maintain some

[49:45] caution. I do like the ADP report that

[49:47] we got yesterday suggesting we're not

[49:49] falling off a cliff yet, but I think

[49:51] some caution is still uh wise.

[49:54] Anyway, that's all I got for now. I'll

[49:56] see you in the next one. Thanks for

[49:57] being here, folks. Goodbye and good

[49:59] luck.