Stock Market Open

[00:01] All right, all right, all right, all right. Let's see what is going

[00:07] on in the world of the stonk market today, folks. Welcome back, everyone,

[00:13] to another stonk market live stream. Today, we are bouncing off of some

[00:19] of the aggressive lows that we had this morning. mostly because of

[00:25] enthusiasm that some of the worst is baked in. That's the hope,

[00:31] but we don't know if that's going to continue, especially since we've

[00:36] got, unfortunately, bad things news on yields and on Brent, which we've got

[00:42] to watch very closely. Brent right now still at roughly $113, which is

[00:48] not fantastic. $113 per barrel of crude. In addition to that, if we

[00:53] look at the bond market, we could see The 10-year has chillaxed a

[00:59] little bit off of 4.3, but it's still miserable at 4.287. The two-year

[01:05] treasury, folks, has up 11 basis points, leading to a massive bear flattening

[01:11] down at 0.43 on the 10-2 spread right now. This is typically bearish

[01:16] for the stock market, though there is hope that some of the worst

[01:22] may be built in now. Now, obviously, that remains to be seen. We've got a

[01:28] market that's tried to start rallying. It can't keep it up. We had a little

[01:33] bit of an Intuit rally begin. We saw this two days ago where it rallied

[01:39] and then it fizzled after about 20, 30 minutes. And it looks like that same

[01:44] thing's happening right now. But what's interesting and what we really want to start

[01:50] watching is some of this commentary from both the ECB, the European Central Bank,

[01:55] and Israel. So let's write down some of this. And see what

[02:01] the latest is regarding Iran. So first things first, yesterday we

[02:07] heard Trump say that Trump had no knowledge of this South

[02:12] Pars attack. Trump argued last night, no knowledge of South Pars

[02:18] attack. Then he said Israel will not do that again without

[02:24] working with the United States.

[02:29] And if Iran strikes more infrastructure, we'll

[02:35] attack their infrastructure. Okay, that was Donald

[02:41] Trump's truth yesterday. Okay, so we'll say

[02:47] that was Trump's truth yesterday. Problem is

[02:52] this morning, Semref in Saudi Arabia, an

[02:58] oil refinery, along the Red Sea, which is

[03:04] the other side of this conflict, was attacked by Iran. And

[03:10] listen to this, Israel, who was it from Israel? Let me

[03:16] see here. Let's see here. Israel, Israel, Israel, Israel. Sorry, so

[03:21] many updates have come in. I have lost where that Israel

[03:27] comment was. It's okay. I remember what it was, but I'd

[03:33] like to find it. oh those are a lot

[03:39] of ecb alerts we're going to go through the oh there we

[03:45] go okay okay three israeli officials three israeli officials for reuters uh

[03:51] israeli attack on south pars gas field was coordinated with the us

[03:56] but will likely not be repeated okay so that is you know

[04:03] That kind of counters Trump, kind of counters Trump,

[04:09] but also somewhat optimistic that we can hopefully not

[04:14] see that strike again, right? Because the retaliation that

[04:20] came was not ideal. Now, Iran literally just seconds

[04:26] ago. Iran, moments ago, this came

[04:31] through at 649 Pacific. Our response to Israel's

[04:37] attack on infrastructure employed fraction of our power.

[04:43] Right. I mean, they always say this. That's

[04:49] what like a chihuahua says too. This is

[04:55] a fraction of my bite. The only reason

[05:01] for... for restraint was respect

[05:06] for request de-escalation. Requested de-escalation. Uh-huh. And

[05:12] zero restraint if our infrastructure is struck

[05:17] again. Any end to this war must

[05:22] address damage to our civilian sites. So

[05:27] like compensation and so on and so

[05:33] forth, right? Okay. I mean... None of that

[05:39] sounds escalatory. So this is decent. You know, decent optimism

[05:44] here. Let me see what the ECB had this morning.

[05:50] So ECB is going to be Fed-style commentary. So let's

[05:55] throw down. So ECB just about 20 minutes ago. Let's

[06:01] see. They had... Oh, yeah. And then we just also

[06:06] had what's going on in Kuwait. Kuwait... Petrol Corp

[06:12] in Kuwait suspends operations after attacks. So

[06:18] that's not great. And these are going

[06:23] to be at Mina Abdullah and Mina

[06:29] Al Ahmadi refineries. Got it? Okay. Then

[06:35] let's see ECB commentary here. Oh, and

[06:40] then Qatar did also talk here.

[06:50] Okay, so Qatar, Qatar

[06:55] energy CEO need hostilities

[07:01] to cease. Let's see,

[07:07] lost about 20 billion

[07:12] in ARR due to

[07:18] attacks. Exports will be

[07:24] down. this is

[07:29] just some of the impact here

[07:34] exports of condensate expected to be

[07:39] down 20 sorry 24 uh lpg

[07:44] down 13 helium oh there's that

[07:50] ai chip problem down 14 and

[07:55] naptha and sulfur down six percent

[08:00] okay

[08:05] Let's see here. So that's not good, obviously.

[08:11] Let's now go look at ECB. ECB tells

[08:17] us data dependent. Old news. They always say

[08:23] this. Let's see. I've got ECB. Interest rates

[08:28] will be based on assessment of inflation. Energy

[08:34] prices will be higher. Energy prices will be

[08:40] higher. Medium term implications will

[08:46] depend on the intensity and duration. Medium term impact will

[08:51] depend on intensity and duration. Yes. uh ECB growth

[08:57] forecast of 0.9 percent in 2026 1.3

[09:03] percent in 2027 and 1.4 percent in

[09:08] 2028 which suggests they think the trough

[09:14] is this year trough suggested at this

[09:19] year okay more uncertainty and 2.6 inflation

[09:24] 2026 2.0, 2027, 2.1% in 2028. I don't know where

[09:30] they come up with that number, but whatever. ECB says it's

[09:36] not committed to any particular rate path. Data dependent. Scenarios will

[09:41] be published. Okay, we did that. We did that. Closely monitoring

[09:47] situation. Three interest rates unchanged. All three rates unchanged. They have

[09:53] like refinancing rates and all this kind of other weird stuff.

[09:59] Okay. All right. So, eh, not so

[10:04] much out of the ECB there.

[10:09] Pegseth had some comments this morning.

[10:15] Let me also see. I want

[10:20] to get a note on this.

[10:25] So, let's see here. There we

[10:31] go. Okay, so oil condensate is

[10:36] a byproduct. So I wanted to

[10:41] see what some of these things

[10:47] are. Condensate oil is a byproduct

[10:52] of natural gas extraction. Okay.

[10:58] Primarily used for gasoline, plastics, and

[11:03] diluting heavy crude. Got it. Okay.

[11:08] And then... LPG is just liquefied

[11:13] petroleum. Liqui... Lick... Ooh, I can't

[11:18] even spell liquefied. Liquified petroleum. Alright,

[11:24] that makes sense. And then we

[11:29] saw... The other thing was... Nap...

[11:34] That is... Naphtha, whatever, mixture for

[11:40] plastics. Okay. And then, yeah. Okay. And

[11:45] then, and then sulfur and helium. Okay.

[11:51] Helium for chips. Helium in part for

[11:57] chips. Okay. So Hegseth, let's show this

[12:02] back up over here. Hegseth says Iran

[12:08] has, oops, Iran has the ability to

[12:14] make the right choices for it should

[12:19] not target allies iran knows when you hit

[12:25] karg island what they spell that weird iran

[12:30] knows when you hit what are they saying

[12:36] iran knows when you hit car island we

[12:41] can hold anything at issue pentagon going to

[12:47] congress for money posture and future middle east

[12:52] will be based on our national security iran

[12:58] still retains some missile capabilities we're taking counter

[13:03] measures up to trump to decide when

[13:08] we've achieved what we've needed

[13:14] to. Okay. Alright. You know.

[13:19] Alright. Fine. Karg. Karg Island.

[13:24] Comment. Then up to Trump

[13:29] to decide when we've achieved

[13:34] our goals. And then Tulsi

[13:40] mentions Trump and Israel have

[13:45] differing goals. Alright. Then let's

[13:50] see here. What

[13:56] else? We had the Semref refinery in the Red

[14:01] Sea was hit. Toronto retaliated with a missile strike.

[14:07] We saw that. We have bear flattening points to

[14:13] a tightening of financial conditions, which we'll throw that

[14:18] under the Fed section. Bear flattening today. Tightening of

[14:24] financial conditions as rates rise. Also, mind you, not

[14:29] great for private credit. Right, because you're gonna see

[14:35] more pain in private credit under higher rates. We've got economic data.

[14:41] This is just building permits. Roughly, that's all now. New home sales

[14:46] miss at 587 versus 722. I never really care about the real

[14:52] estate number. Wholesale inventories, month over month, negative 0.5% versus the survey

[14:58] of 0.2. Wholesale trade matches expectations. Okay, that's boring. nothing

[15:03] really exciting there okay tightening of financial conditions as

[15:09] rates rise bad for private credit but historically uh

[15:15] bear uh flattening is bearish stocks that's historical but

[15:21] i actually think today is uh potentially going to

[15:27] see more of an update recovery i think some

[15:32] of the worst has already been priced in this

[15:38] morning copper copper might be worth looking at let's

[15:44] look at copper copper prices

[15:50] okay spot price for copper i

[15:56] need a chart copper spot price

[16:02] chart okay do we got where's

[16:08] my chart you're gonna load what

[16:14] good does this do me there

[16:19] we go okay so copper is

[16:25] interesting because it's an industrial metal

[16:31] that is typically seen as a

[16:37] barometer of the economy and uh

[16:43] we literally did the bear bull scale in the course live maybe you missed it

[16:49] chris yeah yes jp even yeah j paul even responds right away and says that

[16:55] all right so um yeah december 30th i mean we've given up any gains that

[17:01] copper is seeing this year and we're now back at december of 25 levels and

[17:07] a lot of this is because of the war so i

[17:12] do think that's interesting this decline

[17:18] in this as an industrial metal

[17:23] let me uh grab a shot

[17:28] of that so the start of

[17:34] the year was here and there

[17:39] we go okay so copper so

[17:45] copper given up its gains for

[17:50] the year since the war started

[17:55] um Sometimes copper falling rapidly

[18:01] can be seen as recessionary. Sometimes. You know,

[18:07] probably way too soon to tell anything here.

[18:12] Okay, good. Let's now go see how... Yields

[18:18] are doing okay. Good. Look at this. Literally in the alpha report this morning, I

[18:23] said, watch for the 10 year yield to go back down to 4.26 from 4.3.

[18:28] It's literally at 4.27. Well, now I just went right back to 4.27. But as

[18:34] I started saying that it was at 4.26. I'm like, okay, that's bullish. That's good.

[18:39] That's good for a recovery today. That's great. That's a great

[18:45] early indicator. So I like to see that. And then Brent

[18:50] is almost two full dollars off of 132. So or sorry,

[18:56] off of 113. So that's not bad either. Not bad. Okay.

[19:03] let's go see what what else is news today but yeah i think we

[19:09] had a pretty good alpha report today and i think today the alpha report's

[19:15] gonna play out really well that's still very uh i mean so far it's

[19:21] playing out exactly as planned we'll see how it ends up all right here's

[19:27] some more color on that hexeth yapping Hegseth said

[19:33] the war in Iran is different from the

[19:39] previous operation and that Tehran couldn't be trusted

[19:44] to abandon its nuclear program on its own.

[19:50] See, that doesn't sound good, right? That's not

[19:56] ideal. So Hegseth, this time is different. Iran

[20:01] can't be trusted to end their nuclear program.

[20:07] We will finish this. Yeah, none

[20:12] of that sounds good. Our objectives

[20:17] given by the America first president

[20:23] remain what they were on day

[20:28] one. No time has been set.

[20:33] No time set to end conflict.

[20:38] That's not ideal. Whoa. US has

[20:44] sunk 120 Iranian ships now. Wow,

[20:49] we're actually at 7,000 targets now.

[20:54] Now at 7,000 targets, last update.

[21:01] A-10 attack planes and Apache helicopters are striking

[21:07] Iranian targets on the southern flank. Oh, that

[21:12] might be along the strait. Oh, that's interesting.

[21:17] The southern flank. I'm pretty sure that's along

[21:23] the strait. Let's go find out. Uh-huh. Ah,

[21:28] look at this. The southern flank is basically

[21:33] the Persian Gulf, right? Aren't A-10s warthogs? A-10...

[21:39] Yeah, I think that's what they call it.

[21:44] A-10 warthogs. It's still in active service

[21:50] with the Air Force, but it's being

[21:55] phased out. Anyway. Okay. So... Get a

[22:00] screenie here of Iran. And... Well, apparently

[22:06] my screenshot is too large. That always

[22:11] drives me nuts. Just resize the image,

[22:17] Kevin. Then you can do it. I

[22:22] know, I know. It takes time. Time

[22:28] is a valuable asset. Okay. Apache helicopters

[22:33] and... A-10s attacking southern

[22:39] flank. To me, this is a

[22:44] sign that they're starting operations to

[22:50] start securing the strait. This is

[22:56] to secure the strait, which will

[23:01] be finalized by an amphibious occupation

[23:07] of that coast along

[23:13] the southern flank. That's my take. I think they are

[23:18] cleaning house on that southern side, especially the straight, which

[23:24] is right here. And then they'll just park troops along

[23:29] it to secure it, which markets would probably reward that.

[23:35] Of course, then there's a risk that Iranians attack American

[23:40] troops there. risk obviously that American troops then come

[23:46] under fire from land. Okay, let's see here. Okay,

[23:51] countries are urging. That's fine. Iran, but Iran's not

[23:57] going to listen to that crap. Countries can urge

[24:03] all they want. U.S. is considering removing sanctions from

[24:08] Iranian oil at sea. What? So the U.S. may

[24:14] remove sanctions sanctions on Iranian oil already at

[24:19] sea to relieve pressure from rising prices. What? This just seems

[24:25] so backwards. So you're trying to punish Iran, but then you're

[24:31] going to remove sanctions on their oil, allowing them to sell

[24:37] their oil for a higher price? And that seems backwards. It

[24:43] seems backwards. Oil already at sea may see sanctions lifted against

[24:49] Iran to relieve pressure from rising prices.

[24:57] ryan's have been uh that would have all gone to china however

[25:03] it's unclear how sanctions would operate temporarily allow the purchase of russian

[25:09] oil yeah that's weird all right whatever whatever besant okay so oil

[25:15] we saw that yesterday uh oil ran all the way up to

[25:21] about 118 119. we saw that which we're we're we're nicely off

[25:27] of that right now which is bullish This morning's alpha report was

[25:33] all about watch oil come off 113, which it did, we're almost $2 off. And

[25:38] watch the 10 year come, look at that, go down to 4.26, it's right at

[25:44] 4.26 right now. That's exactly what we called. We said if that happened, the queues

[25:50] would recover and they have been. So if you've been watching those two indicators, the

[25:55] queues have done exactly as expected today. That the worst was already

[26:01] priced in in pre-market. You know, sans the first

[26:07] five minutes. Okay. Let's go jump into the journal.

[26:13] Somebody says you'd need hundreds of thousands of troops.

[26:18] Oh, yeah. No, that's not how many Trump's sending.

[26:24] I think Trump's sending, like, 2,500 Marines and 2,500

[26:29] sailors for a combined, like, 5K. Okay. Christine's talking.

[26:35] Lagarde. Cannot

[26:40] give timeline. We're starting from a good place, but

[26:46] a major shock is unfolding. That's the Iran war.

[26:52] Okay. Here we go. What U.S. Marines can do

[26:58] to help reopen the Strait. That's exactly what I

[27:04] want to see. I think it's that southern flank.

[27:10] Okay. U.S. Marines per Wall Street Journal. Let's see

[27:16] what we got over here on the Marines. The

[27:22] Marines, baby! Uh, let's see here. 2200 marines.

[27:28] Could seize islands off the southern coast as leverage or

[27:33] as a base to counter commercial shipping. Oh, interesting. An

[27:39] island. Oh, like, like maybe these. Oh, there are actually

[27:45] a lot of these little islands. Uh, see that? Look

[27:51] at that. All these over here. See, look at that.

[27:57] Hormuz Island. Oh, that's very interesting. Oh, look at that.

[28:06] How interesting. Hold on a sec.

[28:11] There we go. Okay. So here

[28:17] you have Hormuz Island. There's a

[28:23] Hormuz Portuguese castle. Wow. That's one

[28:29] hell of a castle, huh? Not.

[28:34] There's the salt goddess. What the

[28:40] hell is that? Wow. Okay. Saffron

[28:46] Valley. Oh, that's cool. That's very

[28:52] cool. Valley of statues. Rainbow Valley.

[28:57] Huh. All right. Let's take it.

[29:12] huh that's very interesting let's

[29:17] take a screenshot of that

[29:22] or moves island right under

[29:27] bandara boss uh wall street

[29:33] journal journal okay wall street

[29:38] journal thinks uh 2200 marines

[29:43] might take or uh take

[29:48] an island off the coast

[29:53] of iran and Somebody donates $5

[29:59] to say don't underestimate the Marines. I've seen way less Marines

[30:04] do more nice. I'll also journal figs give that a give

[30:10] that a little heart. It's hard that there we go heart

[30:16] Okay, so this is actually very interesting because Looking at the

[30:22] map. There's literally an a Hormuz Island in the Strait of

[30:28] Hormuz That the

[30:33] Wall Street Journal thinks can be

[30:39] used to launch counter attacks against

[30:44] Iranians fighting or shooting at ships.

[30:50] That's fascinating. Amphibious assault ships. Okay.

[30:56] In just over a week, because

[31:01] they're, they're in route from Japan.

[31:07] Amphibious assault units are in route

[31:13] from Japan. ETA, Just over a week.

[31:19] Roughly next Friday slash next weekend, we'll say. That's

[31:25] huge. Welcome, Kevin. Thanks for joining. Isn't this a

[31:30] Battlefield Conquest? No kidding. I actually never played Battlefield,

[31:36] but it could be. I don't even touch DJT

[31:42] stock. I don't go anywhere near that. No, no,

[31:48] no, no. No, I don't think the ticker should

[31:54] be DJT either. I think it should be SCA. Okay, I won't

[32:00] finish saying it. The Marine Expedition Unit is a self-sustained operation, mobile

[32:05] base, four elements, ground combat, armored vehicle aviation unit of Ospreys, helicopters,

[32:11] jet fighters. Ospreys are badass. I had an Osprey fly like probably

[32:17] about 1,100 feet above my home. May have been a subscriber. Ha

[32:23] ha ha ha. But it was so badass because like

[32:28] when you're on the ground and one of those is 1100

[32:34] feet above you, you're just like shaking. So imagine one of

[32:40] those one of those puppies like attacking you, dude. Oh, my

[32:46] gosh. Those things are so cool. Anyway. specializes in

[32:51] conducting raids by sea and by air iran has closest rate

[32:57] of her moves blah blah blah blah blah forces of reopening

[33:02] and straight launch sites production capability warehouses missiles drone sea mines

[33:08] okay uh tuesday u.s military dropped a 5 000 pound deep

[33:13] penetrator munitions on hardened iranian sites along the coastlines okay that's

[33:19] interesting tuesday dropped 5k bombs, pound

[33:25] bombs, on Iranian targets along the

[33:30] coast. My brother is on an

[33:35] MEU and is freaking pumped. Nice!

[33:41] That's awesome. Okay. So, the island,

[33:46] I think I should also mention,

[33:51] the island also has a salt

[33:57] goddess and saffron valley. It's kind

[34:02] of cool, actually. I want to

[34:08] see the salt goddess. I want to get out of

[34:13] my Osprey to visit the salt goddess. Yeah, yeah, oh,

[34:19] that's funny. Possible landing site. See, look at that. They

[34:24] actually even mentioned it, too. Hormuz Island. Which I guess

[34:30] is spelled in America with a U. Even though they

[34:36] seem to spell it with an O. Okay, got it.

[34:41] Yeah. Okay. Oops. Let's do... That and then

[34:47] where to go back over here

[34:52] Wall Street Journal map map Slap

[34:57] that in over here Okay Okay,

[35:03] Iran controls a number of small

[35:08] islands off the coast they conceal

[35:13] boats in caves Oh, that's interesting

[35:18] instead of destroying cars oil infrastructure

[35:23] Marines could seize the island interesting

[35:31] could also seize karg island and

[35:36] use the oil tanks as leverage

[35:42] interesting yeah and then that way

[35:48] it doesn't damage it or destroy

[35:54] it uh prevents uh damaging the

[36:00] oil infrastructure yeah that's that's interesting

[36:05] okay uh let's see here iranian

[36:11] okay there's another one kashim kashim

[36:17] island which is home to a

[36:22] large desalination plant, or Qeshm Island, home

[36:28] to a large desal plant. Okay. Marines

[36:34] could potentially seize Qish Island, tiny economic

[36:39] hub, or the rocky Hormuz Island, where

[36:45] Tehran docks small attack ships. Aha. Okay.

[36:51] Iran docks small attack ships here. This is a very interesting piece. "Positioning

[36:57] Marines off the Iran's coast rather than inside Iran itself could be a

[37:03] loophole that allowed Trump to claim he has kept his promise of not

[37:09] putting boots on the ground in Iran." Yeah, right. Let's see what the

[37:15] commentary is on this. "The Pokemon live on Ketchum Island?" "We detected connectivity

[37:20] issues, therefore were unable to load the comment section."

[37:26] What's wrong with my connectivity? Damn.

[37:31] Alright. No reading the Wall Street

[37:37] Journal comments. Fine then. "Karg was

[37:42] a Battlefield 3 map"? Was it

[37:47] really? Let me see. "Karg". "Karg

[37:52] Battlefield 3 map". "Karg Island". No

[37:58] freaking way! Uh, oh, that's an

[38:03] ad. Where's the map? Gallery. Oh

[38:08] yeah, look at that! Oil tankers.

[38:13] Or that may have been a

[38:19] cargo. This is just a bunch

[38:24] of random pics. Let me see if

[38:30] I can get a better website here. How interesting. One

[38:35] of the most underrated maps. Karg Island. Map was so

[38:41] fun. Wow, yeah, look at that! There are the oil

[38:46] tanks on fire. Oh, that's hilarious. Yeah, there they are.

[38:52] More oil tanks right here, here. Those look like propane.

[38:57] Wow! Very interesting. Sunny says, "What's the next stop for

[39:03] Tesla?" Oh, let's go see what's going on with Tesla.

[39:10] TESLA! Marines do not need congressional approval. The president's

[39:15] own, he can place Marines anywhere without getting congressional

[39:21] approval. Oh, that's interesting. Alright, so Tesla, uh, let's

[39:26] see, it's dippy doodlod. Uh, yeah, unfortunately, it's now

[39:31] under the 100-day moving average as well. Uh, next

[39:37] stop's 347. Ugh. We need to do a Battlefield

[39:42] livestream today for, for research purposes? Yeah! Don't

[39:48] tempt me with a video game. Or worse,

[39:53] a blonde and a video game. Okay, economists

[39:59] don't see a recession until oil hits 138

[40:05] and stays there for weeks. Okay, okay. So,

[40:10] jobs. Somebody says, are you buying more stocks

[40:16] this week? Well, you know, I think...

[40:22] I'm really hopeful this Iran war ends. Geopolitics are almost always

[40:28] a buy the dip opportunity. Almost always. And I do think

[40:33] that we'll have a nice rebound in the labor market. But

[40:39] if you wanted more confidence, you could probably wait 15 days.

[40:45] And it may be too late to get the best dip in 15

[40:51] days, but in 15 days you get the next jobs report already. It's

[40:57] kind of crazy to think that, you know, the March jobs report is

[41:02] already coming with February revisions on April 3rd. And so if at all

[41:08] you're worried about that February negative 92,000 jobs report, you can wait until,

[41:14] you know, February 3rd. But, yeah. You know, is there is there

[41:19] potentially a rationale to, you know, typically do a little bit? A lot of

[41:25] that also depends on on where you stand with just capital and and, you

[41:31] know, how exposed you are to debt or margin. So. you know

[41:37] 15 days from now we could have already taken carg island or

[41:43] whatever and secured the straight and the market you know skyrockets on

[41:48] that as oil plummets right so uh who knows but uh let's

[41:54] write this this recession commentary down recession at 138 for weeks recession

[42:00] 128 138 on oil for weeks all right

[42:06] Let's write this down. This is Wall

[42:11] Street Journal. War has caused disruption to

[42:17] oil. Consensus is temporary oil shock. 50

[42:22] economists. 50 economists between March 16 to

[42:28] 18. Recession risk at 32% up from

[42:33] 27% in January. That's actually not that

[42:38] much higher. Average response

[42:44] was oil would rise to 138.

[42:50] Okay. Oil elevated for eight plus

[42:55] weeks. Seems to be a... How

[43:00] should I put it? Seems to

[43:05] be what some are targeting. Straight

[43:11] of Hermos fully reopened by mid-April.

[43:16] And I will put a recession

[43:21] in my forecast if not. Okay.

[43:27] Um... Economists, some economists,

[43:32] expect Hormuz to be fully

[43:37] reopened by mid-April. That could

[43:42] work. That could work if

[43:47] Marines take control next weekend.

[43:53] So that would be around

[43:58] the end of the month,

[44:03] 28th, 29th, March 28, 29.

[44:08] And April 3, jobs rebound.

[44:15] Right? So that week's going to be very

[44:21] interesting. Let's see what else they say. No,

[44:27] boring, boring, boring. Okay, I mean, that's a

[44:33] reasonable expectation. Magic 8, I mean, to some

[44:39] extent it is. It feels optimistic. It all

[44:45] depends on that straight. Okay. What else? What

[44:51] else have we? We have resignation, intelligence, US

[44:57] citizen now run. Okay. Proposed more leaning capital

[45:02] rules for big banks.

[45:08] Oh, that's funny. Just two days ago, I was thinking about how, what is it,

[45:13] Greg Abel has that, he has those big shoes to fill over at Berkshire Hathaway.

[45:17] And I'm like, man, it would suck to be him because every decision you make,

[45:22] people are going to doubt you and be like, you're not Buffett. Everything you do

[45:26] right, people will just call it lucky. Everything you do wrong, people will say, Buffett

[45:30] would have done better. It's kind of like the worst job, I feel like, to

[45:35] follow those footsteps. Although the guy is getting compensated quite well, so I'm sure he'll

[45:39] be fine.

[45:44] So here's an interesting story. JP Morgan, we're

[45:50] going to jump to private credit. This is

[45:55] nutty. Well, I just got to sign in

[46:01] really quick. I don't know why they always

[46:06] sign me out. Maybe they don't like me.

[46:12] Well, I could probably guarantee that. But I

[46:17] don't like the Doomers much either. So it's

[46:23] mutual. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs offer funds

[46:28] away to short private credit. Banks now

[46:34] offering ways to short private

[46:39] credit. They'll do anything for

[46:44] money. They'll do anything for

[46:49] money. Oh man. Let's see

[46:54] here. The firms have assembled

[46:59] baskets of stocks. Banks are

[47:04] assembling baskets of stocks to

[47:10] short, including... European firms with private

[47:15] credit exposure that have not yet corrected as

[47:21] much as US private credit. To me, it

[47:26] just feels almost like inducing the very pain,

[47:32] right? Short it down. Bank of America is

[47:37] doing that as well. Bank of America, JP

[47:43] Morgan, and Goldman are doing it. Wow, it does sound like

[47:49] 2008. It's like that big short movie, right? Sounds like a

[47:55] big short. Hey man, get in on this contract. Can government

[48:00] or big hedge fund short brand oil to artificially suppress the

[48:06] price and pump the market? Can the market learn? Yeah, I

[48:12] mean, it's actually surprising that oil isn't already a lot higher.

[48:18] uh, than, than what it is

[48:23] now, you know, with, with the

[48:29] extent of this war. So some

[48:34] of it is, is potentially, you

[48:40] know, being heavily moved by traitors.

[48:46] Elizabeth Warren to Warsh, your name

[48:51] appears in the Epstein files. What?

[48:57] Kevin Warsh in the Epstein files

[49:02] was not on my bingo board.

[49:08] Anyway. Yeah. All right.

[49:13] Qatar says that will take years

[49:19] to repair. Wow. Let's see here.

[49:24] Qatar supplies a fifth of the

[49:29] world's LNG. Let's write that down

[49:35] here. Qatar supplies one fifth of

[49:40] world's LNG. Damage will take three

[49:46] to five years to repair. How

[49:51] does it take three to five

[49:56] years to repair? Is it just

[50:02] that deep, that damage? Wow. Crazy.

[50:08] Okay, fine. Oh, bonds, let me

[50:13] get an update on this. Ah,

[50:19] 10-year moved up again a little

[50:25] bit, back to 2.7. Brent almost

[50:30] back to 1.12. Okay, we saw

[50:36] this. Let's see. Air Baltic Bonds

[50:42] tumbled. Fuel prices up. Sock Gen.

[50:48] Ways deal linked to status center.

[50:53] Okay. Oh, they are. They're only offering that

[50:59] to hedge funds as a way to short private

[51:05] credit. Oh, what is this? Oh, OK. All right.

[51:11] Let's see what's in here. What is this? The

[51:17] Fed's 200 billion dollar bank stimulus. What is this?

[51:23] Federal Reserve is about to give America's biggest lenders

[51:29] an extra 200 billion dollars of capital play with

[51:35] because of the relaxation of regulations, regulations, right? Yeah.

[51:41] Loosen capital rules. that will fuel stock buybacks lending and

[51:46] trading too much haste in deploying all that spare cash in an

[51:52] overheating economy hmm goldman morgan stanley chase will have to think twice

[51:58] about handing billions of dollars straight back to investors through buybacks yeah

[52:03] but when are those rules expected to come in capital rules vice

[52:09] chair jp morgan has 60 billion of excess common equity tier one

[52:14] capital new republican proposals could boost that big banks are about to

[52:20] get a huge capital boost Two

[52:26] new proposals are expected to be released

[52:32] after the Fed holds an open board

[52:37] meeting Thursday. JP Morgan will be the

[52:43] biggest beneficiary. Buy back stock or they

[52:49] could lend to financial markets. Right. Okay.

[52:55] Got it. So that is interesting. Let's

[53:00] throw that into the Fed section. $200

[53:06] billion of looser capital rules for banks.

[53:12] That's actually quite bullish.

[53:20] should be quite bullish once uh

[53:25] what's what's it called um the

[53:30] rules are finalized 200 billion dollars

[53:35] is massive for either bank buybacks

[53:41] or lending jp morgan city wells

[53:46] and bank of america biggest beneficiaries

[53:51] that's a lot of money to

[53:56] lend okay got it What's this? SockGen

[54:02] is mulling a risk transfer of some of its exposure to data

[54:08] centers. Uh-huh. Free up capital. Some investors are concerned the pace of

[54:14] technological change could leave the facilities obsolete by the time leases expire.

[54:19] Yeah, I agree with that. That's why I'm like super bearish long

[54:25] term on stocks like CoreWeave. I'm just like, oh they're

[54:31] gonna be bag holders of this older technology like

[54:37] even what xai is buying or um you know

[54:43] nbis or whatever all right that doesn't surprise me

[54:49] okay what else that's all old let's go to

[54:55] the information see if there's any fun ai news

[55:01] today Canva was

[55:06] smart to hold off on IPO a couple years ago.

[55:12] Canva was one of the hot startups to watch for

[55:18] IPO candidates, but it sat out last year's IPO class

[55:23] and now finds itself in an awkward spot. Well, tough

[55:29] to IPO right now. Data center developer that has barely

[55:35] raised capital. Giga Energy generated 270 million in revenue in

[55:41] its lifetime, raised just 3.4 million in equity funding. Oh,

[55:46] nice. i wonder what their expenses have been though on

[55:52] on that probably all of it okay uber we saw that

[55:58] on rivian talked about that this morning in the course live

[56:03] did some analysis on rivian and then we saw the qualtrics

[56:09] deal okay so nothing new there let's see the ft see

[56:14] that's actually you know if you combine this as reasons to

[56:20] be bullish right uh combined reasons to be bullish okay uh

[56:26] geopolitics geopolitics are usually

[56:32] a buy the dip you've

[56:37] got april three jobs hopefully

[56:42] show rebound from february pain

[56:47] okay um and phoebus marine

[56:52] group shows up uh late

[56:57] next week hopefully reopens or

[57:03] moves Israel says

[57:07] they'll wait on striking

[57:12] any more infrastructure, right?

[57:17] Oil and gas. And

[57:22] Iran says they'll restrain

[57:27] their counterattacks if U.S.

[57:33] and Israel stop attacking

[57:38] oil, gas infrastructure, right?

[57:43] Those things sound optimistic.

[57:48] Oh, that's optimistic.

[57:54] you know because then if iran war

[57:59] chillaxes and jobs gain economy can easily

[58:04] bounce through this that's the hope right

[58:10] that's the that's the the bull take

[58:15] if you will uh makes makes by

[58:20] the dipping either ideal well makes by

[58:26] the dipping ideal uh you know

[58:31] between now and April 3. April 3

[58:37] would have the most color in sight,

[58:42] but maybe not the best price. Okay.

[58:47] Iranian hospital in Dubai closes as UAE

[58:53] suffers third week of attacks. Armageddon scenario

[58:58] for gas markets as Qatar is hit

[59:03] by missiles. Iran sets its price to

[59:09] end the war. Ooh, I want to

[59:14] see. Iran's demand to end war. Okay.

[59:25] but yeah and if these bullish things happen somebody says what would have to happen

[59:30] to get btc back above 80. uh i mean if as i just described you

[59:35] get a good jobs rebound and the war looks like it's ending and you're opening

[59:41] up hormuz that that would be pretty bullish to bring back 80k btcs right assuming

[59:46] all this if you take if you had to take a month call on cues

[59:52] what would you go for um

[59:58] Well, I mean, a month, you're waiting two weeks, so, you know,

[1:00:03] 45 days, I feel like, would be more desirable, you know, if

[1:00:09] you went out. Or even over here, like, if you go to

[1:00:15] May 15th, right, you could go, wow, they're actually pricey. Wait, hold

[1:00:21] on. I'm on puts. There we go. Yeah. So... You know,

[1:00:27] you want liquidity, so you want the open interest to be more elevated.

[1:00:33] You know, 57 days out, 605, because that's going to get you your

[1:00:39] 607 target is in the money. 600, you know, those have good open

[1:00:45] interest, those levels. 600, 605, 57 days out. You know, that's assuming all

[1:00:51] that stuff happens, you know. April, going out 30 days to April 17th,

[1:00:57] you know, you're saving on 600, you're saving... Ah, that's

[1:01:03] $12. And if you go all the way out to

[1:01:08] May, which buys you more time, less theta decay that

[1:01:14] way, you're looking at $19. Yeah, I mean, it's like

[1:01:19] 40% cheaper, so I get it. But, you know, the

[1:01:25] volatility is going to be wild. Anyway, let's see here.

[1:01:31] Iran views the conflict as an existential threat. Well, duh.

[1:01:36] We need a guarantee and won't retreat even if the

[1:01:42] war continues for one year. Iranian... if iran

[1:01:47] is destroyed the whole region is destroyed the guard

[1:01:53] the iranian the iranian or islamic revolutionary guard is

[1:01:59] ideologically motivated they're not scared to die they are

[1:02:05] convinced this re this was regime change and if

[1:02:11] they agree to a ceasefire the us and israel

[1:02:17] will come back right if iran is destroyed the

[1:02:22] whole region is destroyed uh that implies

[1:02:28] Implies more Iranian counterattacks.

[1:02:34] Retaliation, I could say.

[1:02:39] Per FT, guards are

[1:02:44] IRGC. 100 EK strong

[1:02:50] is ideologically motivated to

[1:02:55] prevent regime change. Okay.

[1:03:01] And need guarantees. America

[1:03:06] and Israel won't be

[1:03:11] back. Hmm.

[1:03:20] claims that the republic wants to

[1:03:26] negotiate is delusional so iran's foreign

[1:03:31] minister so far uh oh hold

[1:03:36] on there's an ecb update ecb

[1:03:42] adverse scenario why is that there

[1:03:47] twice slap that into here ecb

[1:03:52] adverse scenario sees inflation at 3.5

[1:03:58] in 2026. yikes okay so back

[1:04:03] to this

[1:04:11] because i went to edit that i think

[1:04:17] it deleted my other comment that's stupid okay

[1:04:23] let me delete that one stupid dang it

[1:04:28] kevin yeah that's exactly what it just did

[1:04:34] dang it okay that's fine and it wasn't

[1:04:40] that much iran deal requirements okay so foreign

[1:04:45] minister foreign uh minister of iran says claims

[1:04:51] of truths or negotiations are delusional.

[1:04:56] Okay. Then we have they fear US

[1:05:02] and Israel coming back. IRGC, 150k strong,

[1:05:07] ideologically motivated to prevent regime change. Truce.

[1:05:13] Okay. Oh yeah, and then we wrote

[1:05:19] if Iran is destroyed, the whole region

[1:05:24] is destroyed. This is their threat. That's

[1:05:30] their threat. Yeah, like you say, scorched

[1:05:35] earth threat. Okay. Partially, straightforward moves

[1:05:41] would be partially weaponized. Israel says they're ready to

[1:05:47] go for as long as required. Yeah, because Iran's

[1:05:52] implying they're ready to go for a year. Iran

[1:05:58] implies ready to go for a year. And Israel

[1:06:04] says they're ready as long as necessary. Oh, another

[1:06:10] ECB update just came through. ECB...

[1:06:15] Looks at a Q2/Q3 recession

[1:06:20] in the Eurozone. Ooh, because

[1:06:26] of that inflation. That would

[1:06:31] be here. ECB adverse scenario

[1:06:36] shows recession. That's soon. In

[1:06:42] Q2/Q3 2026. More intense prolonged.

[1:06:47] And then they have a

[1:06:52] severe scenario. Oh, that's okay.

[1:06:58] The severe scenario shows recession.

[1:07:08] with headline inflation inflation at 4.4 in 2026. aha

[1:07:14] all right so they got their three scenarios i

[1:07:19] guess okay the us doesn't know how to start

[1:07:25] or finish a war in the region says someone

[1:07:31] who is close to the irgc we're not going

[1:07:37] to sit here and let the zionist regime and

[1:07:43] the us establish a new order u.s have vowed

[1:07:49] of u.s and israel about to destroy missile capabilities

[1:07:55] yeah Also wants to make

[1:08:01] sure that the world economy pays a sufficient price so they

[1:08:06] will think twice about resuming the war. I mean, that seems

[1:08:12] to be exactly the strategy right now. Iran wants to damage

[1:08:17] world economy to impart a price on the globe to make

[1:08:23] anyone think twice about attacking Iran again.

[1:08:29] Uh, most effective weapon seems to be closing this straight. I think they

[1:08:35] know that. I think they'll fight pretty hard to keep that straight, as

[1:08:41] much as they can. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea over

[1:08:46] the past two years revealed how disruptive the threat of attacks can be

[1:08:52] over a lengthy period. Also true. Mmm, alright. Welcome, AnotherAmerican91.

[1:08:59] What else have we got here? Japan, softbank fee,

[1:09:05] KIPWC, US regularities unveil plan to cut wrap capital

[1:09:11] requirements by 4.8%. Let's see here. Bank of America

[1:09:16] apologizes for the bet against European private credit. Are

[1:09:22] you kidding me? We were just covering this in

[1:09:27] Bloomberg. Banks now offering away to short private credit.

[1:09:33] Bank of America now apologizing

[1:09:38] for this short offering. Okay,

[1:09:43] hold on a sec. ECB

[1:09:48] comment again. ECB here says

[1:09:54] severe scenario. Severe scenario shows

[1:09:59] inflation continuing to rise. to 6.3

[1:10:05] percent in q127 wow that's with the recession before

[1:10:10] that that's wild because their severe scenario also shows

[1:10:16] a recession in q2 q3 26. that's not good

[1:10:22] i'll always subscribe to throw shade hell yeah another

[1:10:28] american 91 let's go uh all right recommendation has

[1:10:34] been withdrawn based on a review of new new

[1:10:40] information okay bank of america has withdrawn a recommendation that

[1:10:46] clients bet against european countries and potentially exposed to private credit

[1:10:51] shocks saying it made factual inaccuracies which are on a recommendation

[1:10:57] that clients bet against european companies uh who made kind of

[1:11:02] factual inaccuracies thank you recent sales commentary that had circulated which

[1:11:08] advised betting against private credit have

[1:11:13] been pulled based on a review of

[1:11:19] new information. Oh, okay. Okay. Now they're

[1:11:25] saying, oh, JK. They're basically saying, JK,

[1:11:30] JK, JK, JK. That was wrong information.

[1:11:36] And we apologize. Oh, man. They probably

[1:11:42] got some nasty phone calls. Okay. All

[1:11:47] right. Let's go. Let's go see.

[1:11:53] Some of the other political ones, because sometimes they have

[1:11:59] good insights on the war. How the left plans to

[1:12:05] start winning primaries again? Let's see. Fine, after Tron says

[1:12:11] Israel won't attack Ron Gauss fields anymore. Yeah, we've heard

[1:12:17] that before. That number could move. Could move in what

[1:12:22] direction? Taking more money. I think that number could move.

[1:12:28] Obviously, it takes some money to kill bad guys. Okay.

[1:12:34] Alright. Nothing really in Axios.

[1:12:45] okay what about post uh let's see airfares are

[1:12:51] spiking sustained elevation gas prices could bring a reckoning

[1:12:56] for oil economic fallout hits the rest of the

[1:13:02] world harder drones over army base where rubio hexeth

[1:13:07] live race security concerns advances in a bind supporting

[1:13:13] a war that could cost him politically mediterranean diet

[1:13:19] I love that there's more coverage coming out over the Mediterranean diet.

[1:13:25] I'm such a big fan of, uh, I've never heard of this,

[1:13:30] found the DASH diet. I don't know what DASH is. That I

[1:13:36] haven't heard of before. What's DASH? DASH. DASH stands for Dietary Approach

[1:13:42] to Stop Hypertension. Okay, so what is it? Vegetables, nuts, and whole

[1:13:47] grains. Yeah! Big fan. I mean, that's basically the core of the

[1:13:53] Mediterranean diet anyway, so old days. Okay. What else?

[1:13:59] Polio, travel advisory, both parties peer. Okay, boring, boring,

[1:14:05] boring. Okay, let's go to political. Oh, let's go

[1:14:11] also to economist. Recession, which I argue hasn't happened

[1:14:17] since we'll kill inflation. Well, yeah, I think the

[1:14:23] reason, and that's the standard thinking, is that a

[1:14:29] recession will kill inflation, which is correct in the

[1:14:35] longer term. I think the reason they're saying

[1:14:40] this is because of oil prices. I think

[1:14:46] their expectation here of higher inflation versus deflation,

[1:14:51] even during recession, would be the expectation that

[1:14:57] higher oil prices will lead to higher headline

[1:15:02] inflation, even as underlying core inflation uh shrinks

[1:15:08] or or just straight up deflates right expectation there

[1:15:13] we go uh war in iran is making donald

[1:15:19] trump weaker and angrier nice image okay let's take

[1:15:24] a look at that all right let's see what

[1:15:30] we got cooking here and then we got to

[1:15:35] do a summary all right and then how's the

[1:15:41] oil doing well it's still at 111. it's good

[1:15:46] all right let's see here No politician can deny political gravity like

[1:15:52] the man whose supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan 6th only for him to be

[1:15:57] re-elected with a bigger share of the vote. And it's hard to imagine a crisis

[1:16:03] more precisely engineered to intercept the trajectory of his presidency than this ill-judged, heedless war

[1:16:08] against Iran. Even a short war will alter the course of his second term, one

[1:16:13] that lasts months will bring it crashing to the earth. The fight against Iran. The

[1:16:19] reason is that the fight against Iran diminishes Mr. Trump's three political superpowers. His

[1:16:24] ability to impose his own reality in the world, his remorseless use of leverage

[1:16:30] and dominion over the Republican Party. Uh-huh. Wars accelerate change. Trump has shown a

[1:16:36] remarkable ability to twist facts. sure enough he insists that he has already triumphed

[1:16:42] in iran yet the war tells the truth of its own iran's regime cannot

[1:16:47] win in any conventional sense but despite widespread spread destruction of infrastructure and the

[1:16:53] assassinations of senior leaders iran's regime survives and its 400 kilograms or so of

[1:16:59] near bomb ready uranium remains at large i mean this is true

[1:17:05] So far, nothing really to write down here. This is just commentary, it seems, but

[1:17:10] I'll be ready to write something down if they say something interesting. Parallel war against

[1:17:15] the global energy industry. Brent crude spiking over 110 now, which it is. It's true.

[1:17:20] Time is on Iran's side. I mean, that's a good point. I actually think that's

[1:17:25] a good point. See, I'm going to try to cut out the economists bias because

[1:17:30] they don't like Trump. Right. And just kind of get to the meat. Which I

[1:17:36] think this is actually a really good point

[1:17:41] right here. Time is on Iran side. Economist

[1:17:47] claims time is on Iran side. I agree

[1:17:52] the more the or the longer the war

[1:17:58] goes on, the more the stock market falls,

[1:18:03] the more oil rises, the more yields bear

[1:18:08] steepen and the more pissed off Trump gets.

[1:18:15] Iran probably realizes this. Hence their, how

[1:18:21] should I put it, ability to re-ramp

[1:18:26] strikes when they want. You know, it

[1:18:32] indicates some intentional planning. That is this

[1:18:38] chart I'll pull up. Chart, chart, chart,

[1:18:43] chart, chart, chart, chart, yesterday. Boom. Got

[1:18:49] it. That's this puppy. You know, the launch volumes

[1:18:55] moving up. Somebody says, I kind of feel like I'm at the

[1:19:01] point where America is too dumb for democracy. Not going to lie.

[1:19:06] Electing Donald Trump was the nail in the coffin, says another American

[1:19:12] 91. Somebody says, electing Biden showed how far this country had gotten

[1:19:18] in terms of incompetence. I mean, in fairness, Biden wasn't like demented

[1:19:23] when he ran for office, as far as we could tell, right?

[1:19:29] Like, That last debate that Biden, like, stumbled out onto the stage on, which we

[1:19:34] covered live, you know, I covered my reaction live. We knew instantly that Biden had

[1:19:39] to go. I think I made, like, 17 videos going, Biden needs to drop out.

[1:19:43] And everybody's like, he's not going to drop out. He's not going to drop out.

[1:19:47] Like, I got so many hate comments. People go, he's not going to drop out.

[1:19:52] And then he drops out. And I'm like, see, I told you so. But no,

[1:19:56] Biden really decayed in office. You know, that was... And it was a fast decline.

[1:20:02] Yeah, that was a rapid decline, which is unfortunate. I think Biden was in

[1:20:08] part seen as a little bit of a continuation of Obama, but maybe probably

[1:20:14] a little bit too progressive. You know, it got a little too, probably too

[1:20:20] run by the cronies inside the Biden White House. Anyway. Okay, so,

[1:20:26] by contrast, Iran appears to have plenty of drones. For as long as

[1:20:31] it restricts traffic in the Strait, oil prices will climb and the damage

[1:20:37] to the world economy will grow. Let's see. Trump then quickly reversed course,

[1:20:43] pretending he never needed the help after saying he needed help to open

[1:20:49] the Strait. Grant safe passage to the Strait. Let's see. In recent days,

[1:20:55] signaling that it will grant safe passage to the Strait from the country

[1:21:01] is a sign that it needs to use access as a bargaining tool.

[1:21:06] Okay. Okay. given that

[1:21:12] leverage iran may hold out for more than just a return to the status

[1:21:18] quo it may ask for sanctions to be lifted or an american commitment to

[1:21:24] abandon some of its bases or restrain israel if recession looms in the us

[1:21:30] and the stock market starts to fall would trump escalate by seizing karg island

[1:21:36] or would he buckle right so uh economists economist argues seizing

[1:21:41] Karg Island, which the Wall Street Journal

[1:21:47] suggested could intensify pressures. Answer depends on

[1:21:52] Trump's hold on his party. 13 American

[1:21:57] service members have died. Seizing an island

[1:22:03] or extracting the 460 kilograms of highly

[1:22:08] enriched uranium would put more American lives

[1:22:13] on the line. 13 dead so far.

[1:22:25] In private, many elected Republicans are seething. Mr. Trump's failure to heed warnings, typical contempt

[1:22:30] of his strategy, and his hubris in thinking he knows better than people who really

[1:22:35] do. Republicans are now highly likely to lose control of the House in the midterm

[1:22:40] elections. Their chances of losing the Senate has risen by 10 points. The worse the

[1:22:45] defeat, the lamer duck the president will be, and the less influence he will have.

[1:22:50] As the war drags on, Mr. Trump could seek a way out and look for

[1:22:55] a win somewhere else, like in Cuba. But Mr. Trump is not in

[1:23:01] full control of this war. Iran's attack on a gas hub in Qatar

[1:23:07] shows it has cards to play. Yeah, that's true. I mean, The Economist

[1:23:13] has a good balancing argument here. You know, The Economist suggests the Qatar

[1:23:19] gas field attack shows Iran still has power. This kind of suggests if

[1:23:25] we took an island, Iran might lash

[1:23:30] out again at other infrastructure. Which, if

[1:23:36] Iran does that, Trump says he'll destroy

[1:23:42] Karg Island. That's where you get Tanya.

[1:23:48] Kiss and bye-bye! Kiss and bye-bye! That's

[1:23:54] bad. Okay. We did like a gif

[1:23:59] of Tanya. Tanya, C4.

[1:24:07] Uh, where... Let me see if I

[1:24:12] can just YouTube one. Tanya... No, there's

[1:24:18] not a good one I could find

[1:24:23] quickly. Oh well. Alright. So anyway. Uh,

[1:24:29] let's see here. Fighting ended tomorrow. It

[1:24:34] could take four to six weeks to

[1:24:40] restore oil production. Uh, either way, uh,

[1:24:45] once fighting ends, uh, restoring oil production

[1:24:51] should take four to six weeks or

[1:24:57] more. Okay. Let's see. These are some other

[1:25:02] things Trump could do. Lash out at home. Blah, blah,

[1:25:08] blah, blah, blah. Makes Trump a very bad loser. Be

[1:25:13] warned. He makes a very bad loser. It's hard to

[1:25:19] see how Mr. Trump ends up being a winner in

[1:25:24] Iran. Be warned. He makes a very bad loser. Nice.

[1:25:29] U.S. Embassy in Lithuania. The U.S. will provide further calibrated

[1:25:35] sanctions relief for the Belarusian sector. U.S., uh... Okay, sanctions

[1:25:41] relief on Belarus, got it. All right, what do we

[1:25:47] got over here? Q's are still trying to crawl their

[1:25:53] way up. Crawl. It's, you know, it's been a ride

[1:25:58] up, you know, since the first five-minute dip. We bottomed

[1:26:04] over here. We're up about five bucks on the Q's.

[1:26:10] It's about 1%. But there's still some work to do

[1:26:16] here. Haifa Oil Refinery in northern Israel. Uh-oh.

[1:26:25] Uh, if that's true, then this talk about, okay, we're not

[1:26:31] going to hit our infrastructure, any oil or gas infrastructure anymore

[1:26:37] is wrong. Let me see. Yeah. Let me see if I

[1:26:43] can get some more on that. That's going to piss off

[1:26:49] Israel. Let's see here. Yeah. I mean, I'm getting a lot

[1:26:54] of hits on this. See, look at this. If you just

[1:27:00] look on X, big fire underway at Haifa's oil refinery complex

[1:27:06] in Northern Israel. Let's write that down. Uh, Israel, Israel.

[1:27:13] Fire reported via X at Haifa oil

[1:27:18] refinery, potentially from a ballistic missile. Ballistic

[1:27:23] missile. Here's another hit to infrastructure. It's

[1:27:29] not good. How is oil? No, oil's

[1:27:34] still at 111. Plumes of smoke. Supplies

[1:27:39] about 50-60% of the country's fuel. I

[1:27:45] don't know if that's true. Let's fact

[1:27:50] check that really quick.

[1:28:02] Okay, so... Israeli output. Let's

[1:28:07] see if we can get

[1:28:13] some... Hmm. Ah, there. I

[1:28:19] think that's what it's called,

[1:28:24] the Bazan Refinery at Haifa.

[1:28:30] Uh, Bazan. Bazan output. Let's

[1:28:36] see. Okay, Bazan Group. 197

[1:28:42] barrels, that's what it... It

[1:28:47] supplies nearly, yeah, 60% of

[1:28:53] domestic diesel and 50% of

[1:28:59] gasoline. Okay. Okay. bazan

[1:29:04] group they're the ones who run it

[1:29:10] okay run by bazan where is that

[1:29:16] uh that ai overview getting this from

[1:29:22] oh directly from here oh here we

[1:29:28] go 60 ah here we go all

[1:29:33] right well at least here's the citation

[1:29:39] produces 60 of israel's diesel and 50

[1:29:45] of gasoline hmm let's see here

[1:29:50] Last year it was struck two, killed

[1:29:56] three workers. So this is a March

[1:30:01] 8 article where they first claimed to

[1:30:07] strike. So this is their second attempt,

[1:30:13] at least. Now at least the second

[1:30:18] attempt since another strike potentially occurred on

[1:30:24] March 8. Carried out by Khyber Shekin

[1:30:29] missiles. Video circulated, visuals, okay. Let's

[1:30:35] see if anything else has come

[1:30:40] up. Direct hits by Hezbollah on

[1:30:45] a port in Haifa. But we

[1:30:50] don't know who sent this. That

[1:30:56] was March 10th. Some of these

[1:31:01] are older posts. What a mess.

[1:31:06] Okay. Got it. So, what else?

[1:31:11] We have... Let's see here. Gold

[1:31:16] mining stocks set to erase 2026

[1:31:22] gains as rate cut bets fade.

[1:31:27] Yeah. Oh, yeah. Gold topped on

[1:31:32] Warsh. Bond traders no longer

[1:31:38] price in any cuts. That's not a surprise.

[1:31:43] White House is lost in the weave. Okay.

[1:31:49] How's the journal? Anything new here? No. Nothing

[1:31:55] new here. Let's check the live blogs. That

[1:32:00] was Swarmer. We talked about them yesterday. That's

[1:32:06] Micron. Crypto.com lays off 12% of staff in

[1:32:11] AI pivot. Huh. Olive Garden slims down dishes

[1:32:17] to drive sales. New lighter portions. Oh, that's

[1:32:23] cute. Okay, let me see what else

[1:32:28] is being said. Uh, Doomburg. Let's see. Inflation target,

[1:32:34] fresh consequences, blah blah blah. Central banks aren't exactly

[1:32:40] playing with the house money, blah blah blah. This

[1:32:46] doesn't matter. Global hawkish reset threatens an already fragile

[1:32:52] Tate. Stocks look defensive as the global reset in

[1:32:57] interest rate pricing is settling in. settling in but

[1:33:03] it's far from capitulation no panic just yet but markets

[1:33:09] are waking up to the prolonged shock if it persists

[1:33:14] earnings will be next to crack bank of england is

[1:33:20] a warning on u.s inflation shock still seen as transitory

[1:33:25] okay all right let's do a little summary of what

[1:33:31] we've got so far a lot of info and we

[1:33:36] can keep hunting see what else is going on out

[1:33:42] there all right so Any updates on HouseHack? HouseHack's

[1:33:48] doing great. Still on trajectory for our Q2 release of Valuation AI. We

[1:33:54] got some final sign-off on some ADUs we built. Closing escrow today on

[1:34:00] another deal that we bought from our Wedgefinder, which we think is going

[1:34:05] to create like $500,000 of equity for the company. An upside equity for

[1:34:11] the company because it was such a good deal.

[1:34:17] The app found it, which is

[1:34:22] great. So, yeah, I think we

[1:34:27] are kicking butt. Okay. Let's get

[1:34:33] punched in here. And we'll do

[1:34:38] a little geopolitical summary. Geopolitical. All

[1:34:43] right. So, I guess we could

[1:34:49] loop in some of the reasons

[1:34:54] to be bullish as well. So,

[1:34:59] there are reasons to be bullish

[1:35:05] and bearish, obviously. But let's break

[1:35:10] this down. Okay,

[1:35:16] take a little sip here. So I don't have to do

[1:35:22] it during. All right, let's do it. There are some reasons

[1:35:27] to be bullish about what's going on in the economy and

[1:35:33] potentially the stock market. In this video, we're going to break

[1:35:39] down a timeframe for when the most ideal time to buy

[1:35:45] the dip might be and should the dip be bought at

[1:35:50] all. But first, we have to understand what's going on in Iran because there are

[1:35:55] some things developing that could be really good, though others argue could be bad. And

[1:36:00] so I think the best way to break this down is just lay it all

[1:36:04] on the table. So let's get right into it. So first. Donald Trump said last

[1:36:08] night that he had no knowledge of the South Pars attack that the Israelis conducted

[1:36:12] on the gas field. The Israelis said, okay, we won't do it again without working

[1:36:16] with the United States. Although the Israelis also said that they coordinated the strike with

[1:36:20] the United States. So maybe they coordinated with part of the United States and Donald

[1:36:24] Trump is pretending he didn't know about it or maybe he truly didn't know about

[1:36:28] it, but whatever. Iran's like, hey, our bite is stronger. We could attack even more

[1:36:34] of your infrastructure. In fact, we held back yesterday after that attack on Qatar. We

[1:36:39] could have done more because y'all are saying you wanna deescalate. Now, this could be

[1:36:45] like a little chihuahua saying their bite is actually stronger than it really is, but

[1:36:51] What's bearish is we woke up this morning to hear that Semref, an oil refinery

[1:36:55] in Saudi Arabia, which is on the Red Sea side. So Persian Gulf here and

[1:37:00] then all the way on the other side, the Red Sea side, you know, above

[1:37:04] Yemen, where the Houthis like disrupting shipping lines. That refinery in Saudi Arabia was attacked

[1:37:09] by Iran. And then now, just about eight minutes ago, we started seeing reports that

[1:37:13] Iran, The Haifa oil refinery in Israel was potentially struck in this just minutes ago.

[1:37:19] Reports of a big fire underway at this refining complex, potentially due to a ballistic

[1:37:25] missile, which, you know, these things sound escalatory. That's not good. But anyway. So we

[1:37:31] have this talk that on one hand Trump and the Iranians are saying, okay, okay,

[1:37:37] we're not going to target infrastructure anymore. And then Semref gets attacked this morning and

[1:37:42] now the Haifa oil refinery is attacked in northern Israel, which supplies 60% of Israel's

[1:37:48] diesel and 50% of Israel's gasoline. So this is sort of a very important refining

[1:37:54] facility for Israel's economy. So we're kind of like, OK, we're hearing words that are

[1:38:00] good, but actions also speak louder than words. And so this isn't good. It kind

[1:38:05] of counters some of the optimism, which isn't good. Right now, Iran again says there

[1:38:11] will be zero restraint if our infrastructure is struck again and any end to this

[1:38:17] war must address the damage that was conducted to our civilian sites. That's what Iran

[1:38:23] is saying. Now, some people are reading that and saying, okay, what if the

[1:38:29] U.S. doesn't strike the infrastructure again? What if we just take the infrastructure? Now, this

[1:38:34] is a really interesting potential argument. And this has to do with the U.S. Marines

[1:38:40] potentially going to secure an island off the coast of, well, Iran. Now, this is

[1:38:46] from a Wall Street Journal suggestion. The Wall Street Journal has a pretty big

[1:38:52] article on this. What they suggest is that the 2,200 Marines and then about

[1:38:58] the 2,500 sailors that are en route or en route over to the Middle

[1:39:04] East right now and to the Strait could end up being used to control

[1:39:10] the Strait of Hormuz. And potentially what we might do with our Marines is we

[1:39:15] might end up taking one of these islands. And so the Wall Street Journal breaks

[1:39:21] down and suggests that there are these various different islands, whether it's Karg Island, Kish

[1:39:26] Island, Kashum Island, or Hormuz Island. It's literally an island called Hormuz Island, which is

[1:39:32] right in the Strait of Hormuz. But anyway, maybe these could be utilized as as

[1:39:37] a way to stage US troops to counterattack any kind of

[1:39:43] Iranian assaults against the straight itself. Now, The Economist says there's a

[1:39:48] really big downside risk of taking an island here. If we end up taking one

[1:39:54] of these islands, such as Hormuz Island here, which has Rainbow Valley. You can see