The Most Profitable MLB Parlay Strategy (3 Steps)

[00:01] in three steps how you could do the same. Most parlays are a waste of money. donating throwing their parlays in there, but there are select few ways to be able to profit long-term doing that and this is one of those ways that I'm

[00:15] explain what type of parlay this is going to be, okay? This is going to be a going to be, okay? This is going to be a two leg parlay and it hits at 80% of the time. Now I know most people are going to read that and think that there's no

[00:29] but I'm going to prove to you and show you the reason why it actually does. So, let's get to step one, okay? Step one, this is going to be in baseball, okay?

[00:41] In the MLB. First thing you want to do is you want to find the top two pitchers considered aces, okay? That's what we call the top pitchers that are pretty much on a team, okay? We want to first find the top two pitchers on the slate

[00:56] because not every day are there aces pitching, okay? So, we have to find the going to write that down. Now I'm going to show you guys an example of this, a as well, but first let's get through the strategy. Now number two, you want to

[01:11] that the pitchers are going against the bottom 10 teams in hits per game, okay? going to correlate to the two leg that we're doing here, okay? But you want to

[01:24] make sure they're going against the bottom 10 in hits per game team and where you could find that at is team rankings, okay? You go to team rankings.com and you go into MLB, you go into team batting and then you go to

[01:36] hits per game and you'll be able to literally filter through the bottom 10 and see which bottom 10 has hits per game, okay? As a team, as a team you once you have that list you'll have your two pitchers written down, you'll have

[01:50] the bottom 10 teams. Make sure they're going against obviously the bottom 10 step three. Step three is going to be you need to now find the best probability for hits allowed by that

[02:05] pitcher, okay? For the under, okay? We're going to be looking at the under here, okay? So, hits allowed by the pitcher, the under. Now you want to find pitcher, the under. Now you want to find the probability that is 90% and up,

[02:18] okay? Probability needs to be 90% or above for that under for those pitchers. Then what you do is you just create a two team parlay for what? Those pitchers to go under their hits allowed number, okay? You All you're doing is

[02:33] sandwiching two of the best pitchers on the slate going against teams that don't hit the ball that good and then we're buying their hits allowed number all the way up to where we have at least a 90% or more probability and then putting

[02:46] to fast forward through all this and you want the answers sent to you daily strategies and then just give you the answers, make sure you guys click the you find this bet at? Well, there is one place you could find this, okay? And

[02:59] one place you could find this type of bet where you could sandwich both of the hits allowed under where it's 90% probability or more and put them example so you could see exactly how this works. So, let's go ahead and start

[03:13] here, okay? First we're going to look at his hits allowed who he's going to get who he's going to get. He's going against the Mets, okay? The Mets are actually literally 10th in hits per game. So, they're right right on that

[03:26] line of what we're looking at here. So, next thing we want to look at is his hits allowed. Where the probability skyrockets and goes the most, okay? Where we get over 90% probability. Now where we find 90% probability plus here

[03:39] where we find 90% probability plus here is going to be six or fewer. That's exactly how it's going to look on the sports book as well. Six or fewer. So, what this essentially means is you're betting under

[03:51] six and a half, okay? So, if he allows seven hits then you lose, okay? He has to allow seven hits for you to be able to lose here. Now the odds for this play right here are minus 1200, okay? Big number, right? That's why we use another

[04:06] player to put into this mix, but his probability here is 94%. here. There's not another ace on the slate so I'm going to use a another we could use that. We're going to look at Luis

[04:21] Gil versus the Angels, okay? Luis Gil's on the Yankees. He's going against the Angels. Now the Angels are the fifth worst, okay? Hits per game. Put that over there so that way you guys could see. Again, same thing here. Make sure I

[04:34] put worst that way you understand that, okay? 10th worst. The Mets are the 10th worst against Ohtani and then the Angels are the fifth worst hits per game against Gil. Now Gil's number is seven or fewer, okay? So, that's one up on

[04:47] Ohtani there so that translates to pretty much under seven and a half pretty much under seven and a half meaning that eight hits now would cause you to lose this play. Now his odds for here are going to be minus 650, okay?

[04:59] So, a little better than Ohtani's number, right? But his actual true probability here a little bit more, 96%, okay? So, now we have a 96% and a 94%. So, first it's qualified, right? We have teams that are go We have pitchers that

[05:13] are going against teams that are the worst in hits per game. We have got the number all the way down to where we have over 90% probability both ends here, okay? Now what we have to do is we have to put these together and find if our

[05:27] gives us on these is going to beat our true probability or do we actually have an edge? And what you're looking at here is the actual true probability, okay? That's the actual number of that event actually occurring. So, now when we put

[05:42] both of these together, what we're going to get is a minus 400 play which comes out to an 80% implied probability. Now the true probability is we put both of these together, okay? Doesn't mean that you add them both together and divide by

[05:57] two. That is not how you come up with the probability for two leg parlays to actually hit, okay? It's not how you do it. I use a calculator, simple calculator. Literally go into Google, you put the two events to occur at the

[06:11] same time, the odds, it shows Omni calculator, it'll show you exactly you just plug in the numbers and it'll show you the percent, okay? The true probability of this this two leg right here is going to be 90%. So, that gives

[06:26] here is going to be 90%. So, that gives us what here? A plus 10% edge on this play, okay? We've created a plus 10% edge. Now let me show you what happens when we try to use the minus 110 regular numbers that the sports book gives you

[06:40] here and why when most people are betting those type of parlays they're you exactly the reason why. So, we're going to go ahead and use the same exact examples, okay? We're going to go with Ohtani, right? Versus the Mets and Gil

[06:54] against the Angels. Now let's take a look at their minus 110 numbers and what in the true probability and all that and try to wedge it together, okay? So, first off let's look at Ohtani. His number is going to be under three and a

[07:09] actually the same thing here. Both going to be under three and a half. If one of because you need both of them to win, okay? Now let's find what the true probability is for this right here. For Gil his true probability here is 25%.

[07:24] Ohtani, his true probability is 61%. Now when we put these two together to make a two leg parlay, we're going to get a true probability percent, okay? It's going to be 15. So, now for this to make sense our implied probability in the

[07:37] odds that we find when we smash these two together has to be giving us an edge, okay? We have to have an edge here. So, the implied probability has to be below 15%. Now with the odds being like this because that's what these

[07:49] these odds are at this number. Ohtani's minus 120, Gil is minus 112. You're not going to get that, okay? You're not going to get below 15% true probability. When you put these two together you get a plus 247. That's what your odds are

[08:01] going to be. So, what that translates to is implied probability which is 29%. So, the sports book's telling you there's a 29% chance that this is going to hit, but the true probability of this event actually occurring is only 15%. So, thus

[08:15] giving you a negative 14% edge. And this right here is why people lose so much on parlays because they don't realize when they're putting together these type of numbers that you're actually at a disadvantage almost all the time. If

[08:29] your favor to where it makes sense, then you are actually literally slow bleeding yourself constantly until you have absolutely nothing left. As always, I'm Frank La Mecca Sports. I'll see you guys in the next video. Till then, I'm out.