Why I Ignored Bullish SMT
43sDirectly addresses a controversial trading decision, sparking debate and engagement from traders who disagree.
▶ Play ClipAI Summary
The video discusses a trading scenario where a trader takes a short position against a bullish SMT (Smart Money Technique) signal, emphasizing that price action should be prioritized over SMT when there is no supporting price action. The trader explains the concept of 'sick sister' in correlated assets, where NQ catches up to ES's sell-off, and identifies a market maker sell model based on a 1-hour wick and consequent encroachment.
Chapters
[00:02]
SMT vs Price Action
The trader acknowledges a bullish SMT but dismisses it because there is no price action to relate it to, emphasizing the importance of reading price truth over SMT signals.
[00:14]
Fair Value Gap and State Change
A fair value gap is run through, and a 5-minute change in state occurs, indicating sell-side pressure below, which suggests a bearish bias.
[00:27]
Sick Sister Concept
NQ is expected to play 'sick sister' to ES, meaning NQ will catch up to ES's sell-off, as ES leads correlated assets.
[00:40]
Market Maker Sell Model
A clear market maker sell model is identified with a big 1-hour wick and respect of consequent encroachment, indicating the market wants to go lower.
[00:54]
Trade Execution
The trader takes partials after an internal high is taken out and then breaks lower, eventually exiting all positions.
The key takeaway is that traders should prioritize price action over SMT signals, and understanding correlated asset dynamics like 'sick sister' can help anticipate market moves.
Study Flashcards (3)
What is the 'sick sister' concept in trading?
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What is the 'sick sister' concept in trading?
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It refers to a correlated asset (like NQ) catching up to the move of the leading asset (like ES) in the same direction.
00:27
Why did the trader ignore the bullish SMT?
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Why did the trader ignore the bullish SMT?
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Because there was no price action to relate it to, and price truth should be prioritized over SMT.
00:02
What indicates a market maker sell model?
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What indicates a market maker sell model?
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A big 1-hour wick and respect of consequent encroachment, indicating the market wants to go lower.
00:40
💡 Key Takeaways
⚖️
Price Action Over SMT
Emphasizes a core trading principle: price action trumps indicators like SMT.
00:02
💡
Sick Sister Dynamics
Explains a practical concept for trading correlated assets.
00:27
🔧
Market Maker Sell Model
Provides a clear pattern for identifying bearish setups.
00:40Full Transcript
[00:02] scared because ES had taken the low already. And there's going to be comments saying, "Justin, why did you take a short against the bullish SMT? ES had already taken that low at the time. There's a bullish SMT there, Justin."
[00:14] Guess what? I don't give a freak if there's an SMT there because an SMT does not matter if there is no price action to relate it to. Meaning, read price truth. Fair value gap gets ran through, 5-minute change in the state, there's
[00:27] sell-side below us. Which means NQ is most likely going to play sick sister. Sick sister means it's going to end up catching up to ES. ES is leading the correlated assets. ES is selling off. NQ will end up catching up to it. So, when
[00:40] dumb clear to expect to see a market maker sell model, especially [music] wick. Big 1-hour wick, we come up, we respect consequent encroachment, [music] me is a clear market maker sell model that the market wants to go lower. So,
[00:54] little bit, we come up. What do we do? We take out an internal high, and then We take out an internal high, and then we break lower again. So, I take partials and I'm out. I was I was all out already here.
