Market Rally Signals — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Once again, it looks like Donald Trump is trying to pump markets. Maybe this is sort of a buy-the-dicks call-out from Donald Trump, but it seems pretty blunt. Take a look at some of the commentary here from Donald Trump.

[00:12] Just in the last few minutes, 12 minutes ago, the failing nation of Iran wants to make a deal. Okay, I won't do the actions. Hold on. Quickly and badly, I will determine whether or not the USA will choose to engage, basically engaging, making a deal,

[00:29] the concept of which we are open to. Thank you for your attention this matter. I mean, this is really a hint that Donald Trump is reversing from his previous position of

[00:42] we're slow walking talks with Iran, we don't care to make a deal, we're ready to stay at war for the long time, we have plenty of bombs, this war might go on past the election, and then insiders in the White House leaking.

[00:55] In fact, we are, you know, ready for being at war with Iran until 2029 when Donald Trump leaves office. That's what we got a week ago.

[01:07] Now what we're getting is, yeah, you know, we're actually open to a deal. Well, duh, because that's the M.O. Donald Trump's M.O., in my opinion, is getting a deal done some way or form before the election.

[01:21] I personally think that's going to be all of the regional players making a deal, and then the U.S. just not having to deal with Iran at all, and then just walking away from that area and saying, ah, the Saudis in Kuwait are going to deal with it,

[01:34] and we're going to help the Saudis and the others in Oman or whatever. We'll see. But Donald Trump is certainly changing his tune over the last week as we're knocking on the door of Kevin Warsh getting forced to raise interest rates

[01:49] from the 10-year treasury, knocking on the door of 5%, briefly crossing it before falling back down, but only falling back down because of Donald Trump's tweets. The only reason the United States is leading,

[02:04] don't kill the golden goose. Okay, then we've got Ukraine, 39 minutes. Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian energy targets. Russia has agreed to do likewise.

[02:17] the world's diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, not Iran. All right, so three things going on here. One, Donald Trump reversing on,

[02:29] ah, well, we don't really care to make a deal. We could be at war for two years and we'll be fine. Reversing on that MO2, you know, we're open to a deal. Then, hey, AI is making so much money,

[02:41] don't screw with AI because it's pumping the economy and the stock market and everything's good, like, let's not screw with them. At the same time, if you're worried about oil or gas prices going up,

[02:53] oil and gas prices are only going up, per Donald Trump, because of the war between Russia and Ukraine, where we're getting more and more tankers or ports and energy infrastructure now getting struck, whether it's in the Black Sea or it's on land,

[03:07] you know, wherever the infrastructure or pumping facilities are being struck. we now have news that Russia and Ukraine have bilaterally agreed to stop hitting energy infrastructure.

[03:21] So literally in the span of 39 minutes, we have three times Donald Trump is basically begging you to go buy the different stocks. Now, you don't have to believe him. The only controller guardrails that AI needs is a strong and smart high IQ president In other words everything I about to say is coming from a place of being really smart

[03:46] So, buy the gift. Seems to be the Trump's argument here. And the USA has that in spades. The Trump administration has stopped AI people from doing bad things, or potentially bad things.

[03:59] Like Dario, who is pretending to be a little angel. nice way to bag on his IPO right before him. And then, of course, he bags on the condition of the White House before and after, whatever. There's a nice little before and after picture.

[04:13] Putty in all the little age, and then smooth trowel it out. I have to say, looks pretty nice.

[04:25] Some nice attention to detail there, huh? Anyway, what does this actually mean? Well, it reiterates that by the day, this is probably the right answer right now.

[04:37] I maintain that we are in a position of peak fear that the Federal Reserve will raise rates, and the market's expecting that. It'll actually be worse if they don't raise rates. We've already talked about that in another segment.

[04:51] I think that there's a little bit of a rush to safety in software right now. We saw this in the Alpha report this morning. This is not a pitch. There's no coupon code right now. But IGV was like at 102, maybe 103.

[05:06] I mean, you can see right here. Yeah, 103, 102 this morning when we were doing our market open live stream or our course member live stream before the market opened up where we come up with a trading strategy for not just the short term or the medium term or the long term.

[05:18] And we touch on all the topics. And I'm like, hey, this is bullish IGV today. This is bullish software today. And I mean, you look at some of these software stocks. Intuit's up 5%. Salesforce is up, what is it, 3.69%.

[05:32] CrowdStrike, 14%. We've been showing cybersecurity. Net of 7%. SentinelOne, look at that, straight up. And most of it during the day.

[05:45] You know, it's one thing if all of them made their gains pre-market, but they didn't. Most of these things happen after the fact. And then we also called for, wait 10 minutes, and then you'll find a bottom, was my assumption, and the triple Qs, and take a look at this, 10 minutes, right here, right there, 940,

[06:05] the market holds the 702.87 line perfectly, right there, 940, I think people think there's no way, and that's what we got, it's been up since there, and Donald Trump's commentary

[06:21] has definitely helped with that, Donald Trump's commentary over the last hour, let's see, We are $11.50 here, bringing us back to about $12.50 would be about, or sorry, $10.50 would be about right here.

[06:34] So Donald Trump really starts posting around here. This right here is Donald Trump's early tacoing. Imagine, if this is the early tacoing, how glorious it's going to be when we get the full and complete tacos.

[06:50] I think we're going to get the full and complete taco. Especially before the election. It's going to be fantastic. Goldman Sachs, or no, was it Deutsche Bank or Goldman Sachs? No, it was Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs flipped to saying, hey, this is a buy-to-dip opportunity in certain sectors.

[07:08] They say per the Zero Hedge article midterm seasonality is historically ugly So basically September is ugly But their house view is that well we start hiking in September and they just left from no hike to hike

[07:22] they actually think that the hiking cycle will die in its infancy because inflation is supposed to roll over. I think there's a chance of that. We're pricing in 3.8 rate hikes right now.

[07:34] We're being priced in. I added that context. They're looking at the World Interest Rate Probability Chart. and if we get two then you've priced in twice as many

[07:46] as you're actually going to get which is bullish for the market you don't want the market to roll over right now it drives you into a recession it has nothing to do with people's individual stocks there's still plenty of time to buy the dip

[07:59] but I think this I think Gold was right here that there's a good chance this rate hike cycle ends rapidly.

[08:12] Now, yeah, did we get some news that it's going to take weeks to repair the Saudi pumping facility? Did that drive oil prices up to $109 on Brent? They did.

[08:24] But we've already come back off of that to Thursday's high. We're back to $107. That was the peak we got on Thursday. So it was really just some early morning fear that we got, including the 5% on the 10-year, which we hadn't seen for three years.

[08:37] But Goldman argues that if Iran stops being the left tail, or AI earnings start paying out again, you have two major bull cases to really buy the dip.

[08:49] I agree. Now, what's interesting is they actually argue that there are opportunities in renewable energy. Now, this I find very interesting, because they say that the cleanup of positioning has been most acute in renewables.

[09:08] Basically, longshore ratio is really, really low. So, in other words, positioning really low on the longs. This suggests, in their opinion, there's an opportunity during a high energy price regime

[09:25] to make investments in renewable energy. So whether that's wind or solar or nuclear, they don't specify in this article. But I would imagine a basket of all of them.

[09:37] I'm not the biggest fan personally of solar panels. We actually just saw a financial time, I'm pretty sure it was a financial timepiece, but it was talking about, oh yeah, here. They're talking about solar panels being offensively cheap.

[09:50] I agree with that. I've always said that solar prices are a commodity and that the Chinese make them too inexpensively. Like, they're almost free.

[10:02] And so the money that could be made in solar is ancillary, whether it's batteries, which unfortunately are also mostly Chinese, or it's inverters. But you still have this as an interest rate-sensitive sector.

[10:14] So some people look and say, okay, do you buy an interest rate-sensitive sector now? It takes balls of steel to buy an interest rate-sensitive sector right now. But I do think it's a sector to watch, is if we get to peak rates,

[10:27] the interest rate sensitive solar sector could hit bottom. They could mark a bottom for even like a dog stock, like an end phase. Dog stock. But keep in mind, they have solar optionality

[10:40] via their, not just interest rate sensitive upside, but also with their solid state transformers for data centers. That's not really getting modeled into revenue for the company, which is an upside opportunity but 2028 is when they really expect sales for that and nobody really pricing that in for end phase which is also interesting

[11:01] You know, but there's a lot of risk with that. I've got a little, a tiny little bit of exposure left in end phase. And it's, you know, I've been out of end phase for years

[11:13] in terms of exposure to end phase, mostly because when rates started going up, it doesn't make sense to hold end phase, and it's derated massively from there, right? I think this was like $200 or $300. I can't be in it during high rates. So I missed the vast majority of that downside,

[11:27] but recently picked up a little bit again because I think that solid-state transformer play for 2028 is underpriced. So I kind of agree with Goldman, both on the renewable side

[11:39] and the solid-state transformer side is a nice call option on the data center trade, assuming data centers don't implode, which I don't suspect, not after what we're seeing with Oracle. Oracle more layoffs, streamlining the business and cranking money on data centers.

[11:55] You gotta study the Oracle earnings. They're actually getting a lot better. No position in Oracle. But anyway, putting all this together, the very Trump taco we've been talking about, like, it's coming. It's going to be a mega Trump taco.

[12:08] It's already starting to play out. Is there still time to buy the dip? I think so. I personally think the Q's will have all-time highs before, frankly, the end of the year.

[12:21] And again, maybe I'm just, maybe I'm too bullish. But you've got software rising today, so what happens when software and hardware rises? And interest rate sensitives rise.

[12:33] Think about that potential. And it could go poorly, obviously. There's risk with everything. But think about how that could play out. Here's how it could play out. One, Iran war ends, right?

[12:46] Then you get this massive wave of deflation, especially if we get looser tariffs possible. You know, Canada could represent a near-term peak on tariffs.

[13:04] That's all disinflationary, maybe deflationary. Then this AI data center boom keeps going. Weak wage inflation then, which supports lower rates.

[13:23] You get a rate hike cycle priced in, peaks here, of 3.8 hikes. That settles down to, say, 2. That's bullish. then you get

[13:38] software and hardware and race transitive together rallying that equals you know triple upside

[13:50] to all time high and that's how you break out of the euphoria that's how you get to euphoria why not but that would be my case

[14:02] and I think that this is likely especially with the incentive aligning the four midterms. So I find it an opportunity. I kind of like this little drama that's going on for finding people opportunities.

[14:17] Thank you for advertising these things each other here. I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll try a little advertising here at PR Co. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin Pass left there. Bye. Nice to run with you.

[14:29] And you two both meet Kevin. Always great to get your take. you