WARNING: Micron is about to FLIP the Chip Market

[00:01] All right. Hey everyone, welcome on

[00:04] back. We got to talk Micron because

[00:06] Micron earnings are coming up on

[00:08] Wednesday and frankly they could make or

[00:10] break the market. So, not everybody here

[00:12] might be invested in Micron or maybe you

[00:14] are and you've absolutely been killing

[00:16] it on the investment. Uh, in this video

[00:18] we're going to be pretty neutral on the

[00:20] actual stock itself. I'm just going to

[00:22] give you some facts here and we're going

[00:23] to use those facts to understand what's

[00:25] going on in the broader industry and how

[00:27] this could affect the broader well

[00:29] frankly hardware narrative given that

[00:31] hardware is clearly what's been running

[00:33] since uh we had our original beginning

[00:35] of April ceasefire if you want to call

[00:37] it that. Uh and then of course uh since

[00:39] then we've been looking for a broadening

[00:41] out. Uh we had these pits and starts of

[00:44] software a couple times. Those haven't

[00:45] really gone anywhere. Uh we had finance

[00:48] last week that did really well,

[00:50] specifically Robin Hood. But

[00:52] consistently, it's hardware stocks that

[00:53] keep winning, including Micron uh and uh

[00:57] SanDisk, of course. But even outside of

[01:00] these memory plays, you've got companies

[01:02] like Marll, which was one of our course

[01:04] member favorites. Remember, you can

[01:06] always join over at mekevin.com. Use

[01:08] that coupon code pope. You can see why

[01:10] on uh on Instagram or on uh on Twitter.

[01:14] But anyway, uh Marll's done

[01:15] fantastically. I mean, we're at alltime

[01:17] highs now at 310 and we were even higher

[01:20] than that intraday uh last day the

[01:22] market was open. But for now, let's

[01:23] focus on Micron and talk about some of

[01:25] these earnings expectations. What's

[01:27] going on there? So, uh first of all,

[01:29] we're expecting to beat the guidance

[01:32] that Micron gave by about 18%. The

[01:35] consensus estimate is only a beat of

[01:37] about 13%.

[01:39] But they'll probably beat, which is

[01:42] good. You want that. You actually don't

[01:44] want them to miss on any component at

[01:46] all because then you might end up

[01:47] pulling off a Broadcom. Broadcom had

[01:50] pretty much across the board beats, but

[01:53] the timing of some of their custom chip

[01:55] revenue and Broadcom does a lot of AS6

[01:57] as well like Marll. The timing of some

[01:59] of their custom chip chip revenue kind

[02:02] of got delayed. And so one of their

[02:03] their their next forecast quarter

[02:05] revenue was a slight miss compared to

[02:08] expectations. And the stock still hasn't

[02:10] recovered. it was down like 20% after

[02:12] earnings. Uh, and you know, now it's

[02:14] still down about 14% from their

[02:16] earnings. So, even though their earnings

[02:18] were pretty dang freaking good and the

[02:20] company's booming, it you know,

[02:21] honestly, for long-term buyers, it

[02:23] created a dip opportunity for Broadcom,

[02:26] even a slight miss can really tank some

[02:29] of these really uh big momentum movers,

[02:32] if you will. It doesn't take a lot to

[02:34] move these, so to speak. Uh so we're

[02:36] expecting a beat on top of expectations

[02:40] that are already expecting a beat. Uh

[02:42] and the biggest driver that you have at

[02:44] uh Micron right now is really price

[02:47] realization. And I think that's really

[02:49] important to understand when you're

[02:50] looking at an investment into Micron. So

[02:53] I'm going to read you some uh notes here

[02:55] directly from their last quarterly

[02:57] report. they have an increase of uh

[03:01] year-over-year increase of DRAM supply

[03:04] of 40% and nan supply of 30%. Or

[03:07] shipments, I should say, rather than

[03:08] supply. That's a pretty good

[03:10] year-over-year increase in shipments,

[03:12] right? But price is actually going up at

[03:16] a percentage of about 115% on DRAM and

[03:19] about 100% on NAND. So in other words,

[03:22] you are growing price way faster than

[03:25] you are actually growing shipments,

[03:28] which is very common during a shortage

[03:31] environment. Now, something to think

[03:32] about if you hear NAND and DRAM, I'm not

[03:35] going to go super into the weeds here.

[03:37] I'm going to give you a very, very basic

[03:39] uh difference of the two. The way I like

[03:41] to think of the two is I like to think

[03:43] of NAND maintains memory when the chips

[03:47] are turned off. So, the power is turned

[03:50] off. When is that useful? A lot of

[03:52] agentic AI applications. I don't want to

[03:55] have to reload all of my agentic AI

[03:58] context every time the darn thing

[04:00] respawns. I shouldn't say respawns,

[04:02] restarts. I'm in like a video game

[04:04] mindset even though I'm here in like a

[04:05] real life MMO. A lot of NPCs out here. I

[04:09] shouldn't say that. Uh but anyway, DRAM

[04:12] uh is really really powerful all the

[04:15] time when it's on, but it basically

[04:18] wipes your memory when it's off. That's

[04:20] a very very simplified explanation of

[04:23] the difference. Uh and of course they've

[04:25] got four core business units. You've got

[04:27] the core memory business unit. That's

[04:29] for like hypers scale cloud. Obviously

[04:31] that's where we're getting big spend

[04:33] right now at data centers for Micro. Uh

[04:35] then of course you've got sort of the

[04:36] original data center business. Think

[04:38] storage. Think uh the original

[04:40] components inside of Dell racks and

[04:44] storing information. Google Drive,

[04:46] Amazon Cloud, right? like that sort of

[04:48] core original uh data center stuff. And

[04:51] then you've got mobile, automotive and

[04:54] industrial and consumer sectors. So

[04:56] think mobile phones, think you know

[04:58] memory chips that are going into your

[04:59] dishwasher or your uh you know your

[05:01] refrigerator or your washing machine or

[05:03] into your cars, you know, your seat

[05:05] settings like basic things like that.

[05:08] Really basic chips. Those sectors, by

[05:11] the way, the last two, automotive,

[05:12] industrial, consumer, and these are

[05:14] bundled into two. I'm listing them out

[05:16] into a little bit more. and mobile those

[05:18] are actually declining which is very

[05:21] interesting. So uh even though prices

[05:24] are going up in all of the sectors

[05:28] shipments are down in mobile and

[05:31] enterprise those other categories. So

[05:33] it's really just the AI narrative that's

[05:36] driving chip prices right now. Uh and so

[05:39] anything that would soften uh the hope

[05:43] that this exponential growth of the

[05:45] chart of Micron is going to keep going

[05:47] is going to be a really big risk factor

[05:49] for the stock especially with how high

[05:51] it's run in the near term. Now the thing

[05:54] is even though at $1,100

[05:57] it seems like it's run up an insane

[05:59] amount because of the Wall Street

[06:02] forecast for this company it's actually

[06:04] cheap. like UBS prices it in as having a

[06:07] potential double.

[06:09] I don't actually think they're wrong,

[06:11] which is crazy to say, but right now the

[06:14] KPEG I have for them is 1.03, which

[06:18] means they could easily justify a

[06:20] valuation that is uh probably closer to

[06:22] 2 and a half times this, somewhere

[06:24] closer to $2,500 a share. But there's

[06:27] going to be a lot of volatility between

[06:29] here and there, both to the upside and

[06:32] to the downside is my expectation. Now,

[06:35] uh that's pretty incredible and I'll

[06:36] give you the components as to what makes

[06:38] up that so you could understand uh why

[06:41] that uh you know we we would come to

[06:44] such a valuation. Uh it has to do with

[06:46] an expected earnings per share at the

[06:48] end of this year of $59 per share which

[06:51] originally when we look at that and we

[06:53] divide their current price by 59 we're

[06:55] like okay wait a minute oh that's

[06:57] actually not that high. That's only 19.2

[06:59] times earnings. Yeah. Like these people

[07:01] are printing money even though that

[07:04] stick is you know the chart is hockey

[07:05] stick so much because they're printing

[07:07] money they are printing so much that

[07:09] they're only selling for 19.2 times

[07:11] earnings. On top of that their growth is

[07:13] expected to be about 18% per year over

[07:17] the next four years. So that gets you

[07:20] pretty close to about a one price to

[07:21] earnings growth ratio. Now, if you look

[07:23] at like trailing, the numbers are going

[07:25] to be different. But when you look at

[07:26] these forward projections, yeah, the

[07:28] projections actually suggest the stock

[07:30] is cheap. And this is why the most

[07:32] sensitive thing you could look at would

[07:33] be anything that would hurt those

[07:35] projections. Now, I just want to shout

[07:36] something out really quickly that's a

[07:37] totally free feature. Uh it's called our

[07:40] alpha wire service. If you haven't

[07:41] actually checked it out yet, uh we just

[07:43] released it last week and it's pretty

[07:45] amazing. Basically, what it is, it's uh

[07:48] think about it like a um an anchor over

[07:50] at CNBC or Bloomberg. You know how

[07:52] they're like, "Oh, this is just coming

[07:54] across the wire or this is just coming

[07:55] across the tape." You could get that for

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[07:59] Uh, so if you download the Meet Kevin

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[08:03] you can utilize this. If you sign up

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[08:07] use the desktop version if you want. Uh,

[08:09] you know, you just have to sign up in

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[08:14] make that account first uh inside the

[08:16] app. And you could use the wire service

[08:18] on desktop, on Android, on Apple, and

[08:20] it's totally free for now. Uh but it's

[08:22] kind of cool because uh you know you get

[08:23] these little breaking updates like Trump

[08:25] heads to Camp David as Iran talks falter

[08:27] or whatever, right? And those will come

[08:28] through. This is brand new. It's super

[08:30] in beta. We just released this in the

[08:32] Kevin app. But I think it's really cool

[08:33] because, you know, I also can pin uh

[08:36] wire alerts that come through and then

[08:38] I'll put like sort of the Meet Kevin

[08:40] commentary under it and that's really

[08:42] clearly outlined. So check that out.

[08:43] It's right under the alpha wire tab. And

[08:45] you'll see inside the Meet Kevin app, we

[08:47] actually have a little terminal button

[08:49] where you could switch between housing

[08:51] and stock. It's because we've got like

[08:52] the stock AI tools now that we've custom

[08:55] built. We've got the real estate AI

[08:56] tool, uh the valuation AI service coming

[08:59] out at the end of the month, which is

[09:00] really exciting. We're really just like

[09:02] cranking software right now. We we are

[09:04] jumping up and down and we're providing

[09:07] this for free for now. So, we're very

[09:08] excited about you could use it at least

[09:10] for the next few uh many months. uh uh

[09:13] totally for free. So I I think get your

[09:15] use out of it. Uh why not give it a

[09:17] shot? Give us some feedback. Let us know

[09:18] what you think. But anyway, let's focus

[09:20] some more on Micron. So those are the

[09:23] EPS projections and the growth

[09:25] projections. Any kind of red flag here

[09:28] that could tank the stock would be any

[09:29] kind of slowing in average selling

[09:31] prices. Any kind of slowing in order

[09:32] growth, obviously missed targets, but

[09:34] again to me, this is a co era toilet

[09:36] paper seller. They're selling toilet

[09:38] paper when everybody wants toilet paper.

[09:40] There's not enough toilet paper. This is

[09:42] not trying to be an insult uh to the

[09:44] company. The company knows this

[09:45] themselves. They literally warn in their

[09:48] filings that most of their cash flow

[09:49] right now is coming from price

[09:51] realization, not because they're

[09:53] delivering more product. They realize

[09:55] that. Like if you literally look at

[09:57] their quarter overquarter numbers,

[09:58] you'll see how extreme it is. So I'll go

[10:00] over here to quarter over quarter. I

[10:03] wish I could share the screen screen in

[10:04] my studio and just show it to you. So uh

[10:06] you if you're a course member, you could

[10:08] see it. It's under the stock tab. All of

[10:10] these are all this data is under the uh

[10:12] stock tab. But what I want you to think

[10:14] about is this very next quarter. Oh, I

[10:17] don't even know if I screenshotted it.

[10:18] Let me screenshot it to make sure it

[10:20] goes in there. But anyway, it's from the

[10:21] quarterly report. Ah, yeah, here it is.

[10:23] Okay, great. Oh, okay. Perfect. Yep,

[10:24] right here. So, uh, we've got sales of

[10:27] DRAM products increased 74%.

[10:31] But price increased about 65%.

[10:34] That means that's quarter over quarter.

[10:35] So, in a three-month span, they

[10:37] literally hiked prices about 65% in a

[10:40] span of three months. This is an insane

[10:42] shortage. Part of that is what we saw

[10:45] after Claude um uh co- co-work really

[10:49] went crazy. I shouldn't say Claude Co.

[10:50] Um uh whatever. You know what I mean?

[10:52] Claude Code, there we go. After Claude

[10:54] Code really went crazy in Q1, uh prices

[10:58] for everything. HBM's uh you know high

[11:01] bandwidth memory but also H100s from

[11:03] Nvidia had this massive surge in Q1 but

[11:07] those prices have already started to

[11:09] settle and that's one of the big

[11:10] concerns we're worried about here for

[11:12] Micron is we're already tracking H100

[11:14] prices and they're still elevated but

[11:17] they've come way off the peak that we

[11:19] saw in the first quarter. Uh, and so

[11:21] some of this price growth that they're

[11:23] talking about here might not last, but I

[11:25] mean, listen to this. They raised prices

[11:27] on DRAM. Remember the one that works

[11:29] really well all the time when it's

[11:31] powered on, but it loses its memory when

[11:33] it's turned off. Prices rose 65%.

[11:36] And their actual shipments only grew

[11:39] about 7 to Nish%.

[11:41] So that's still good. You know,

[11:44] shipments are still growing somewhere

[11:45] around, you know, 32 to 36%. But most of

[11:49] their money is being driven by price

[11:51] because they can. It's sort of like,

[11:53] wow, okay, let's try raising the price.

[11:54] Wow, people are still paying it. Let's

[11:56] try raising the price. Wow, people are

[11:57] still paying it. Right? That's what

[11:59] they're doing. And they're milking that

[12:00] right now. Now, that does not last

[12:03] forever. We know that. In fact, if you

[12:05] know PP is too strong for too long, you

[12:08] know, some say 4 hours, you need to go

[12:09] visit the doctor. Okay. Anyway, uh the

[12:11] same is happening actually on NAND

[12:13] products. Nan products up 82% but 75% of

[12:17] that was because of price. So yeah,

[12:19] quantity is going up but most of the

[12:21] growth is frankly price. Okay. Yeah. So

[12:24] I did have this correct all um already

[12:26] updated on the the stock uh terminal

[12:29] side. Okay. Good. So uh let's now keep

[12:31] going on to the the the broader risk

[12:33] factors here. So any kind of cost

[12:36] reductions at companies or increases in

[12:38] supply are the big risk factors for a

[12:40] company like this. So, some potential

[12:42] headwinds are going to include the fact

[12:44] that there are efforts now at Meta,

[12:45] Microsoft, and companies like Walmart to

[12:48] decrease this token maxing culture we've

[12:51] gotten into. Meta last week told

[12:53] employees that it would soon limit AI

[12:56] use after seeing an exponential increase

[12:58] in token maxing. I mean, in fairness,

[12:59] they were a little looney. They went for

[13:02] like, hey, let's have leaderboards and

[13:04] see how many tokens people are using and

[13:06] uh, you know, reward people based on

[13:08] token maxing. And so people were

[13:09] basically looping agents doing

[13:12] essentially very little in the way of

[13:13] productive work uh but maximizing their

[13:15] token usage. That's pretty dumb. So

[13:17] Meta's killing that. Walmart is killing

[13:19] that. Microsoft is now considering

[13:21] moving from OpenAI uh and Claude, mostly

[13:24] like a chat GPT40 level for Microsoft

[13:27] co-work and they're considering moving

[13:29] to Deep Seek V4, which is like a huge

[13:32] insult because now it means we're going

[13:33] from American LLM providers to sort of

[13:35] like a copycat and mega efficiency

[13:38] version DeepSseek, which you know, we

[13:40] highly expect DeepS basically trained

[13:42] our versions by just training off of the

[13:44] outputs of OpenAI. So kind of bypassing

[13:48] all of the training that OpenAI did,

[13:49] which is kind of brilliant, but also

[13:51] very evil. But when you switch models,

[13:53] you know, costs plummet. If you use

[13:55] Sonnet, you literally save about uh 95%

[14:00] of the cost that Opus costs over at

[14:02] Claude, you know. So you use Claude

[14:05] Opus, uh, you know, it costs you 20x

[14:07] what Sonic costs. And if you use Kimmy,

[14:10] which is a product from uh Moonshot AI,

[14:12] which is another Chinese startup, that

[14:14] costs you another 120th. So another 95%

[14:18] cost reduction. So cost reduction is is

[14:20] really a big key here. The more that we

[14:22] see, the less we end up seeing in the

[14:24] way of pricing power at chip

[14:26] manufacturers, but that's all a

[14:28] downstream effect, right? So that's why

[14:30] we're so focused on their guidance

[14:31] because we really think they're going to

[14:33] be able to guide strong for probably at

[14:35] least another year. Bloomberg

[14:37] Intelligence thinks they're going to

[14:38] have pricing power through the end of

[14:39] the decade. I kind of doubt that. They

[14:42] say there'll be limited supply between

[14:43] now and likely 2029 to 2030 and they

[14:46] expect higher pricing throughout 2027. I

[14:49] agree throughout 2027 like getting into

[14:52] next year. I agree with that all the way

[14:54] to the end of the decade. I do not agree

[14:55] with that and I'll explain why I don't

[14:57] agree with that and it has to do with

[14:58] the supply expansion uh in just a

[15:00] moment. uh but uh efficiency in models

[15:04] slowly even though it's model use is

[15:06] exploding token use on a second

[15:08] derivative we already know is declining

[15:10] right so uh token use if you look at the

[15:13] Google uh IO event we can see we went

[15:16] from 2024 to 2025 50x increase in token

[15:19] use now we're at about a 6.9x

[15:22] increase in token use and that'll

[15:24] probably keep declining in rate of

[15:26] growth so as we then get away from token

[15:29] maxing we'll see more of those declines

[15:30] times and eventually these this pricing

[15:34] power will fade over in chip companies.

[15:36] That's a warning for all chip companies.

[15:37] We know that. But for right now, things

[15:39] are looking really good and the company

[15:41] is trying to grow their capacity to

[15:43] because they're a big manufacturer of

[15:45] their own chips while they use uh third

[15:47] parties. They do manufacture a lot right

[15:49] now. They're paying down debt. Their

[15:51] balance sheet is really good. They've

[15:52] got plenty of cash to pay off all of

[15:54] their debt right now. Uh and they are

[15:55] actively paying down debt, which I think

[15:57] is a very smart move. And I think they

[15:59] know that. Uh, and even though they're

[16:01] paying down debt, they're also still

[16:03] blowing money on capex, expected to be

[16:05] 25 billion for the year, but they've

[16:07] also already spent over 11 billion for

[16:10] the first quarter. So, you know, I think

[16:11] that they spent a lot already. You know,

[16:14] almost half of their year's budget is

[16:16] already spent in the first quarter. But,

[16:17] you know, maybe that's just timing,

[16:18] right? But anyway, part of the reason

[16:20] they're expanding supply so much, and

[16:22] this is why I don't think they'll make

[16:23] it to the end of the decade with this

[16:24] sort of pricing power, is they're

[16:26] getting like $5.5 billion of subsidies

[16:28] from New York State. And on top of that,

[16:30] they get chips act 35% subsidies from

[16:33] the Biden era chips act. Now, Donald

[16:36] Trump has totally criticized the chip

[16:38] chips act, but in the background, they

[16:40] are actively running an office to manage

[16:43] who gets doled out tax credits through

[16:45] the chips act. So publicly, Trump bashes

[16:48] anything other presidents do, but in the

[16:50] background he's using it in a classic

[16:52] Trumpian style to pick winners. We we

[16:55] kind of know this is how Trump operates.

[16:57] It's not a dish. It's just literally

[16:59] calling it like it is. You know, uh it's

[17:02] it's almost sort of like saying, "Hey,

[17:03] can we get through a me Kevin video

[17:05] without here's a coupon over Kevin?"

[17:07] Now, in fairness, the price goes up over

[17:10] time. We've increased the price again

[17:12] and at the end of this month we're gonna

[17:14] have another big price increase because

[17:16] we're coming out with even more stuff.

[17:18] Uh and and we are spending a lot on R&D.

[17:20] So we're doing a lot to really give back

[17:21] to the community and uh that actually

[17:23] enables for those of you who don't want

[17:24] to pay a dime, you using this alphire

[17:27] service. I highly recommend you check it

[17:29] out. Uh the alphire service is pretty

[17:31] badass. Uh and let us know in the

[17:33] comments what you think about it. If you

[17:34] don't like it, delete the app and

[17:35] uninstall it. But honestly, like I I

[17:38] wouldn't shill something free uh like

[17:41] this if I didn't think it was great and

[17:43] you would be like, "Oh man, Kevin, yes,

[17:45] this is actually good. Thank you." Like

[17:48] really. Uh okay, so uh here's the

[17:50] problem with the expansion of supply.

[17:52] I'll go through this pretty quickly

[17:53] here. Singapore high bandwidth memory

[17:54] expansion uh coming online in calendar

[17:57] 2027. This is basically them saying

[17:59] they're meaningfully expanding their

[18:01] packaging for chips chip assembly uh for

[18:04] high bandwidth memory in 27. So, we're

[18:06] going to have a big increase in in their

[18:08] Singapore plant for HBM that increases

[18:10] supply on the top. Oh, wow. I just z I

[18:13] didn't realize I zoomed out all the way.

[18:14] Oh, that's interesting. I can I can

[18:16] actually control the zoom from my phone.

[18:17] That's kind of cool. Or my watch. That's

[18:20] kind of cool. But the downside of that

[18:21] is if you accidentally bump into it, you

[18:23] make a mess of your your angle.

[18:25] Hopefully, you didn't see uh you know,

[18:26] up my pants here. What pants? Anyway, so

[18:31] uh it works out. Anyway, um in September

[18:34] of 2022, they started their Boise, Idaho

[18:37] fab. Uh and they actually broke ground

[18:39] in 2023. Guess when that comes online?

[18:43] Mid 2027. Took about four years to

[18:45] develop. So that means you're going to

[18:47] have the Boise, Idaho Fab come online at

[18:49] the same time as their Singapore fab is

[18:51] expanding uh production. That's a lot

[18:53] more supply. And mind you, this is just

[18:55] Micron, right? Like the leader of memory

[18:57] production is actually Samsung. And then

[18:59] you've got SKHENX. Samsung sits about

[19:02] 38% market share. SKH Highex at 29%.

[19:05] Micron's actually only at about 22%.

[19:08] Now, something to keep in mind, they're

[19:09] one of the smallers. Uh now, if you look

[19:12] at uh their additional fab development,

[19:15] they have a second fab in Idaho that

[19:18] they're starting construction on this

[19:20] year, like right now, and they expect

[19:21] that to be online by the end of 2028. So

[19:24] between the middle of 2027 and the 18

[19:27] months thereafter, so middle of 27 to

[19:29] the end of 28, you're going to have like

[19:30] three fabs just from Micron coming

[19:32] online to start trying to realize this

[19:35] this, you know, price increase. Now, I

[19:38] think that there's an indication they're

[19:39] starting to try to rush these plants.

[19:41] You know, their first one took about

[19:42] four years. This next one's two and a

[19:44] half years of development. Maybe it's

[19:46] smaller, but to me, like if I were them,

[19:48] I'd get it. Like, hey, prices are really

[19:49] hot right now. Let's try to build these

[19:51] as soon as we can so we can print like

[19:53] make hay when the sun is shining. That's

[19:54] why they're paying off debt. They're

[19:56] really smart. At the same time they're

[19:57] paying off debt. They're using cash flow

[19:58] to build the machine. Very very smart.

[20:01] Now in the near term, Apple did warn uh

[20:04] that memory prices are going to uh

[20:06] increase the cost of Apple products and

[20:08] that's going to be unavoidable. I agree

[20:10] for the next year that's probably

[20:11] unavoidable. that could lead sales to

[20:14] fall at Apple, which in my opinion will

[20:17] drop the stock, which actually then

[20:19] becomes a buying opportunity for Apple.

[20:21] I think Apple is roughly fairly valued

[20:23] right now. The upside isn't that great.

[20:25] I'd love for them to get cheaper.

[20:26] Honestly, I would love an opportunity to

[20:28] get into Apple before they actually come

[20:31] out with an AI product. I'd like to be

[20:33] in it before they figure it out. Maybe

[20:34] they will never figure it out. I suppose

[20:36] that's a risk, but I'm not in it right

[20:37] now. But anyway, so you've got these

[20:39] expansions of these facilities to keep

[20:41] in mind. their GNA isn't really moving,

[20:43] which is, you know, just indicates

[20:45] they're really able to scale what they

[20:47] have right now. They do warn that uh

[20:49] cash from operations is highly dependent

[20:52] on selling prices, which are extremely

[20:53] volatile. We know that. That's why

[20:55] they're on the moon cycle right now

[20:57] because everything's just skyrocketing.

[20:59] But the durableness of those price

[21:00] increases will almost certainly fade.

[21:02] It's just a matter of like does supply

[21:04] ramp first to reduce that pricing or

[21:07] does demand slow down first or worse,

[21:09] both. When both supply increases and

[21:12] demand falls, this stock will absolutely

[21:15] tank really fast. It's gonna suck. Like,

[21:19] I would not want to hold this stock for

[21:20] the next 10 years. I would want to hold

[21:23] this stock potentially for the next

[21:24] year, especially if it tanks after

[21:26] earnings. They've got 53,000 employees,

[21:29] which is actually pretty impressive,

[21:30] more than I thought. And so, the bottom

[21:32] line here is that the hardware end isn't

[21:34] really close yet. You could get some

[21:36] volatility after earnings just like we

[21:38] saw with Broadcom. But frankly, it's

[21:40] probably going to be a buy the dip

[21:41] between now and next year when more uh

[21:44] chip supply comes online as long as

[21:48] hyperscalers don't U-turn on their capex

[21:50] yet, which there's really no sign of

[21:51] yet. But I think 2027 is probably that

[21:54] year where we start seeing some of the

[21:55] rollover. So in other words, still have

[21:57] time to go. The company's got a great

[21:59] valuation right now based on those Wall

[22:01] Street projections which could change.

[22:03] Balance sheet is really strong. This

[22:04] company is a gold mine. It is a really

[22:07] durable company as well. Like I don't

[22:09] think there's a chance that they could

[22:10] go bankrupt. Uh I know famous last

[22:12] words, but their balance sheet is so

[22:13] freaking strong and they're paying off

[22:15] debt knowing the crash is coming and

[22:18] they're just trying to milk as much

[22:19] money as they can between now and then

[22:20] and build the mo most robust

[22:22] infrastructure and grab the most market

[22:24] share they can. Honestly, they're smart.

[22:27] I really respect the executives at

[22:29] Micron. They are doing exactly what they

[22:31] should be doing. uh they are uh very

[22:33] disciplined, very strong company. I have

[22:35] very little bad to say about this

[22:37] company. Uh and uh I'm actually very

[22:39] excited about it. So uh Wednesday will

[22:41] be a very big day. Uh it is uh the day

[22:44] I'm coming back. So uh we'll we'll cover

[22:47] the earnings afterwards. But anyway, if

[22:49] you like this, consider subscribing and

[22:50] uh we'll see you in the next video.

[22:51] Goodbye and goodbye.