Bitcoin Forecast – May 11, 2026

[00:02] I welcome you all again. Happy Monday everyone and the start of a new trading week. Today start of a new trading week. Today we will work with charts online. What will be the goal and [clears throat] what will we be doing today? We'll be

[00:15] doing today? We'll be taking a detailed look at key assets, looking for taking a detailed look at key assets, looking for new chart variables and the information they convey based on the tools available to

[00:28] price traders and smartmania traders. Let's look at the market smartmania traders. Let's look at the market auction and ultimately answer two questions. What kind of medium-term narrative can we expect on the asset side,

[00:43] so that we understand the priority vector for work. Also what areas the price may reach in the near future. I'm talking about areas of interest where there is a

[00:55] high potential for getting a reaction. We'll also look at targets and price magnets that can be used for direct monetization. trading ideas, right? Let's start with

[01:12] Bitcoin. If anyone has any questions , even though today is a review and not a tutorial, I still allow this opportunity. You can ask questions via chat, write, perhaps at the end we will talk about them and

[01:28] touch on some additional topics. I think the new format will be interesting to many, because it is a more lively work. and not a ready-made scenario of specific trading ideas, yes, because trading

[01:42] ideas are formed sequentially. First comes the analysis of key points, then the narrative is formed. If the narrative on the asset is clear, the narrative, by the way, is always tied to time. That is, it can be the same within a day,

[01:57] but within a week or a monthly narrative it can differ radically. And then a specific trading idea is developed, where there is point A and point B for the movement of an asset, which we, as traders, can monetize.

[02:13] Aa, let's start with Bitcoin today. Next we'll look at the dollar, other alt-pairs, and perhaps touch on metals and indices if we have time. It all depends on the pace. So, let's start with understanding the

[02:29] premium discount array. Let me remind you that we need this tool to better understand the cost. Firstly, secondly, to understand what Firstly, secondly, to understand what asymmetry is present on the a-a chart

[02:44] in order to understand, uh, point B, yes, where the asset is heading, and also to understand the increased pressure that the asset may encounter on its that the asset may encounter on its movement. So, in B2C we are currently

[02:59] approaching the premium mark. You have to understand that we have You have to understand that we have been beyond the 50% mark for quite some time now and are currently in the premium, but not deep. That is, therefore, based on

[03:16] Long Range, also known as Premium Discount Massive, we have two rather important pieces of information. First, we entered the premium market, where the higher we get in the

[03:28] premium marks, the more pressure we will see from sellers. This is one. Secondly, it is worth making a small note in the interim

[03:40] conclusion that we are only getting an initial reaction from the only getting an initial reaction from the premium zones. But it's also worth keeping in mind that the final delivery price may turn out to be, which is

[03:56] always statistically justified, or it may end up in a deeper deeper premium. Yes, however, it is worth noting this information, which will be useful to us later. Technically

[04:10] useful to us later. Technically we are in premium. interest that the price may reach in the near future

[04:26] . In fact, on our chart, there are two important zones on Bitcoin and one of its localizations, in which we which we are located directly nearby. This is a weekly currency.

[04:49] we were just testing and receiving the initial rejection, as I would now initial rejection, as I would now call it, from the area of ​​50% of the weekly firewall. I also know, now you will write, there is still a month. Yes, there is a

[05:02] monthly period. In this case, you don't have to mark it. Let me explain why. Because on the daily timeframe we have an area, a, a breaker of the same or the broken last swing, which in the previous

[05:18] market auction was a local support, yes, exactly the same story local support, yes, exactly the same story as here, here, here and so on. Ah, and at the current moment this is a resistor, that is, a

[05:36] close proximity to premium prices. Accordingly, are there any long bands from which the price may react? There is a local daily

[05:48] imbalance. We'll talk about him a little later. Accordingly, an interim summary, so to speak. The price is in the premium range and in the

[06:00] immediate vicinity. Plus, even in the primary test of the Plus, even in the primary test of the 50% gap area, that is, in the short position, in

[06:13] 50% gap area, that is, in the short position, in the breaker and in the breakaway gap. Also worth noting are round numbers. I use them in my round numbers. I use them in my trading, often localizing them and,

[06:26] subsequently, monitoring them. Let me explain why. Because any round number, that is, the so-called institutional keywords, is an area of heightened interest for many market participants. On the other hand, these are

[06:41] psychological numbers. That is, one way or another, these are the areas that are most likely to react either to their update breakout, yes, or to a false breakout. Therefore, such areas are worth noting and

[06:57] subsequently using. The closest round figure, that is, our institutional Kleevel is at the 80,000 mark, where we, in general, still received in general, still received active support. Now let's talk

[07:10] about points B, that is, they are price magnets to which the price can be magnets to which the price can be delivered. There are several of them here. And they are clearly visible on both the daily and four-hour timeframes.

[07:24] The first thing worth noting is the first, or rather the last or rather the last previously untested daily valg. And right in front of him in the immediate vicinity there is an area, and swings,

[07:42] which is presented in the form of a lowresist. Accordingly, the area that, uh-huh, contains a large amount of liquidity and acts as a potential target and magnet for price delivery. That is, the 78,000 mark

[07:56] 78,000 mark and the daily imbalance located below are the closest price magnet for B2C. Are there any other price magnets for movement on the chart? Yes, I have. We

[08:13] have a technically formed index. Why an Indian? Because it is the first swing that gets the initial reaction, and the test is the area of ​​interest. Considering the breadth of the area of ​​interest, plus the

[08:30] fact that several areas of supply intersect in this case, yes, we can anticipate building such a hypothesis, or

[08:42] rather, not exclude the possibility that we will be filling that very Firevue Gap for some time. Accordingly, we cannot know the depth of the reaction. Will it be a we cannot know the depth of the reaction. Will it be a full fill, will it be a primary

[08:56] full fill, will it be a primary 50% test, which is happening now, and immediately the formation of an imbalance, and so on. We will talk about this conclusion a little later. But the We will talk about this conclusion a little later. But the unconditional target that

[09:09] the price can achieve is a renewal of the current high at 82800. current high at 82800. While the swing and fibrillation ranges

[09:21] While the swing and fibrillation ranges can be used as a target, the 80-point range, the local high, can and will be used as a trigger for subsequent imbalance formation

[09:36] and a deeper assessment of the asset. If the keyword is that this is going to happen, then you just need to use all the variables at the time of generating analytics for better

[09:49] forecasting. Let's move on to more, [clears throat] Let's move on to more, [clears throat] more precisely, stop, uh, more goals that the more precisely, stop, uh, more goals that the price may pursue. The value itself,

[10:02] price may pursue. The value itself, of course, and 50% of it can be used as targets for understanding price movements. Next, [clears throat] price movements. Next, [clears throat] the currency itself, of course, the daytime one, will act

[10:15] as a support, that is, there is a high probability of getting a reaction from this probability of getting a reaction from this area. Ah, it's hard to say about the reverse. All of this will need to be analyzed immediately if we come to this

[10:28] area and take into account the resulting imbalance, resulting imbalance, its extent, and so on. But looking ahead, you can also use additional swings. That is, if we

[10:42] potentially pass through the area of ​​the free gap, yes, that is, we form a breakout, a retest, most likely , then the next logical

[10:54] target for the asset’s movement will be the area of ​​73 with kopecks area of ​​73 with kopecks as targets. Total, subtotal. And then we move on to the direct

[11:09] imbalance and localization on a lower time frame, on the four-hour one in this case. What do we have? We are in the currency area, potentially forming an index when approaching this area. We obtain primary rejection,

[11:26] area. We obtain primary rejection, which is expressed through RB. which is expressed through RB. vicinity of the breaker area. Yes, which we are also testing. That is,

[11:38] we are, no matter how you look at it, on this graph, that we are not making this up now, we are in resistance. That is, it can no longer be denied. In addition to being in resistance, we are in the premium range. Accordingly,

[11:51] sales pressure may be increased. Based on this, one can build a hypothesis and this, one can build a hypothesis and the potential for subsequent depreciation of the asset. Yes. We also have some targets. The first ones are 78,000. Next comes

[12:04] filling out the daily file loop, where, ideally, you need to re-evaluate the asset based on new data that appears on the chart. If we break through this area, we have a longer-term correction emerging, and the

[12:18] next logical target for the asset could be 73298 with units. Aa localization on a four-hour timeframe. What is of interest in general on the four-hour timeframe?

[12:32] interest in general on the four-hour timeframe? In fact, in my trading, I am interested in the very fact of price delivery, that is, how the price delivery is currently taking place . And the main answer to the question,

[12:45] question, which, with the help of tools, will be who dominates the chart and to what extent, that is, to what extent is, to what extent the buyer, seller is present, and who is currently

[12:57] managing the structure and delivery of the price. Yes, everything here is quite interesting at the moment. Why? Because we technically had a breakdown last

[13:09] week. It is also worth noting the compression, in the form of a dampening of purchasing power in the immediate vicinity power in the immediate vicinity of the POE, which formed

[13:24] the target for potential price movement. This is one. Secondly, and even more importantly, how did the end of the week and the weekend go

[13:36] end of the week and the weekend go according to schedule. Why? Because the price formed that very low resistance, that is, this is the area, firstly, of targets for the asset’s movement. Secondly, and even more importantly, there is technically no

[13:49] support here from which the price can bounce off and go higher. That is, in essence, we are now receiving a confirmation within a confirmation. Why? Because we had, uh, a short break last week. We're approaching, that is,

[14:03] we actually have a momentum with a break, even with the formation of with the formation of gaps and a local B. As we approach this RB, we approach here with compression and also

[14:17] RB, we approach here with compression and also provide a confirm inside, essentially. provide a confirm inside, essentially. What is possible? And plus we add a information that also needs to be taken into account. This is the formation of the current.

[14:32] That is, in essence, from the point of view of imbalance, we have clear dominance. That is, now there is a moment of seizing the put it correctly, what is happening consistently now . Consistently, the

[14:46] . Consistently, the initiative is now being seized initiative is now being seized by sellers. This is one. Secondly, we are forming a resist, that is, the area already shows where the resist area is. And in

[15:00] this case, the resistance has a clear advantage over the support, yes, which is confirmed by the fact that the structure and use as such are essentially broken. That

[15:12] and use as such are essentially broken. That 's why we have poi times. But in principle we are in a state of flux. And we still have a trigger for the price; it might not be possible to the price; it might not be possible to rule out a renewal of the maximum,

[15:25] right? And the first logical point, the most likely one for asset delivery, is the nearest targets and filling the inefficiency at the 77-78,000 mark.

[15:44] Bitcoin. It's also worth watching the broadcast according to today's schedule. There is also quite a lot of information on the air now. And, in quite a lot of information on the air now. And, in principle, the graph looks interesting.