It Will Get Worse: Russian Stocks Analysis — VKontakte, Polyus, Samolet, Rosneft, Gazprom

[00:01] qualified investor. Here is my yield chart. Let's take a look at what's happening in the Russian financial market . Let's look at some of the promotions and analyze the current agenda. The last few weeks have been very hot.

[00:14] few weeks have been very hot.

[00:27] I begin my analysis, a quick announcement. Our school now offers a new course on neural networks. How to use neural networks in applied trading and investing. Using neural networks, you can reduce the time spent

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[00:58] reasonable, and is approximately in the same range as one loss in the financial market. Take advantage of it while you can . Let's first look at the external situations. If we look at the chart and

[01:12] the long-term situation, we can see that the market has now started to fall very sharply downwards.

[01:28] current structure with the 2008 structure . If we look at the chart, these are monthly charts, this structure is still different, because in 2008 we had a serious decline. After this, the market rose very strongly to the point of

[01:44] decline and began to trade above the midpoint of the decline. In this case, we experienced a fall. The market never rose to the level of the decline and is now trading below the midpoint. The middle is a psychological level. And it certainly

[02:00] psychological level. And it certainly points to investors' assessment of the current state of affairs. And let us start from this position now. In the last few weeks, an important political and geopolitical factor has, of course,

[02:12] been the so-called fuel crisis, which is not a fuel crisis. I think many of you have watched the speech of the so-called President Vladimir Putin over the last few days, where he gives interviews via prompter. And

[02:28] in this speech, the impossibility of resolving this very geopolitical issue and this very fuel crisis was non-verbally read. Why is this bad? Because there is no solution. The problem is systemic. And this systemic

[02:44] problem will ultimately impact the cost of goods and services. Our country is very large, very long. In this regard, in order to transport goods, you must allocate at least 15-20% for the logistics chain. In the context of

[02:59] rising fuel costs and fuel shortages, these 15-20% will reduce your margins and drive up the cost of products. And so this situation arises. Most people here earn 50,000-60,000 rubles. on hands. This is

[03:15] still considered very good. Goods and services have become much more expensive, meaning people can't buy anything endlessly and can't spend on everything endlessly. If the price there rises by another 10,

[03:29] 15%, that is, the cost of this logistics chain will become very unpleasant. All this will hit the margins of large companies hard. The Central Bank's interest rate is high and risks not falling below that level by the end of the

[03:44] current year, and it may even rise due to rising inflation. And the result is a very negative scenario: a strong ruble, high inflation, and a high central bank interest rate . This is a full-fledged

[03:58] crisis, what is called a textbook crisis. The way out of this crisis is cheap money and increased inflation. The government is not ready for this yet. At least until the current elections. After the elections, we will actually

[04:13] see what happens. We also need to take into account that we live in an autocratic country.

[04:32] result. What does this give us in the context of markets? In the context of the markets, this gives us a negative, pessimistic view of the current situation. And this negative view makes people get rid of outsider companies.

[04:47] outsider companies.

[05:01] broke through it, consolidated below, and now a classic rollback structure is occurring classic rollback structure is occurring . It turns out that the range between 2.400 and 2.300 turned out to be such a range, in

[05:14] our case, the sales area. What can we expect here? We can now expect a correction, because the market is still quite oversold, with a subsequent downward movement. And this is very bad, because if we look

[05:29] at the monthly charts, this structure, when the market falls, bounces, and then continues to fall, is called a classic structure, a dead cat bounce.

[05:54] right now, frankly, seems very optimistic to me. Unless you buy put options with an expiration of about a month and a half to catch this very correction, but this is a rather risky thing. So for now there is a

[06:09] short here. We will also outline with you the areas where this very correction may occur. We have already noted with you a large, serious range for the end of the correction. And let's mark it with a big, serious rectangle.

[06:24] The area between 2.500 and 2.300 is a sell area. When the market is here , we will look for an , we will look for an entry point to continue the short. Before

[06:38] we move on to looking at different companies individually, let's take a look at the oil and gas sector index on the Moscow Exchange. What does this give us? This gives us an understanding of what is happening in this sector in general. And if we

[06:51] happening in this sector in general. And if we open the monthly chart now, notice how, since 2020, the oil and gas sector in Russia has been in a large, wide corridor. And we are now at the bottom of

[07:03] this very corridor. It is important to pay attention to the structure. That is, we are approaching the bottom of this corridor through the emergence of a trend structure. This speaks of very powerful, serious sellers. These are monthly charts. And it

[07:17] is clear that further downward movement, that is, a fall, can be expected to occur in several years. But here it is clear that the target of the current movement is the 4.500 range. Let me remind you that this is an index of the oil and gas sector; it

[07:32] indicates what is happening in our country with the oil and gas sector. That is, since COVID, the market has not recovered. Moreover , we are now trading approximately in the range of this very COVID. And what does this tell us?

[07:47] this tell us? investors don’t expect anything positive here yet. Now we will look at outsider companies,

[08:03] we will look first at those in the oil and gas sector and then we will move on . Before we open these campaigns, let me remind you that we have a new course at our school dedicated to neural networks. You can scan

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[08:46] Take advantage of it. The price is very reasonable, 3,500 rubles. at the cost of a you can’t buy gasoline now, but you can buy our course. Take advantage of it. Let's take a look at the national treasure. Just a couple of days ago, this

[09:01] national treasure fell in price to less than 100 rubles. For some reason I remember now a podcast with Denis Stukalin. It came out a year ago. And Denis then said that if Gazprom cost less than 100 rubles, I would buy it. Didn't

[09:16] the respected Denis know if he bought it for less than 100 rubles? for Gazprom, but the price now, if we're talking about the long term, is certainly interesting. Gazprom is now at 2008 levels, remember the global financial crisis. And now

[09:31] we have a repeat of this global financial crisis. At the same time, the world does not yet have this global financial crisis, but it will soon. So, if there is a global financial crisis, you might want to think about what this could mean. However, let's

[09:45] avoid the apocalyptic sentiments. We have a range of 100. We see that investors are buying within this range. This is indicated by the growing volumes during the downward movement. But at the same time, we see that our price is still

[10:01] starting to move downwards, which indicates strong sellers. I'll translate from Chinese to Russian now. This means that we have a strong dominant sales force. And the volumes that are currently available for purchase are not enough to

[10:15] maintain the price at current levels. Let's move on to the daily timeframe. We see a serious decline. There has been no serious relief yet. We have this candle here for peace of mind. Here she is. A candle with volume indicates that

[10:32] some buyer has appeared here. But the reaction is about the same as yours after 45. For this reason, expecting us to have a serious buyer here is rather difficult. If we had a serious, powerful buyer here, we would

[10:47] see a formation where the market moves down and then starts to compress its range. And we should also have seen a gradual increase in seen a gradual increase in volume and a sharp upward surge. If

[11:00] we had such a structure, it would indicate purchases and a serious buyer. We don't have such a structure yet. That is, we really have some kind of, if we squint, we can say that there really

[11:13] was some kind of narrowing here, but there was no serious impulse that would indicate that we have a buyer here. buyer here.

[11:34] mean that we have a powerful buyer. So far these are such small participants. And we can only talk about powerful buyers when we have serious momentum and we close above 116 rubles. If we

[11:49] open a longer distance now, look, our volumes will start to slowly fall. Since January 2025, we have been experiencing a decline in volumes. You see, we have a drop in volumes. This means that everyone who wanted to buy from a private

[12:02] investor is already in the buying phase. And the market is already oversaturated with these buyers; there is no new capital. And, accordingly, if we have some new capital that will enter Gazprom, and this is

[12:16] only possible with a change in the current management, well, or the lifting of sanctions, then we can talk about serious buyers. For this reason, movement here is most likely now within the framework of this large corridor. And

[12:31] this is if we are talking about the long term . This corridor is between . This corridor is between 137 and 100, even 99. Let's mark it with a red line like this. This is a long-term trend. Let's designate it

[12:47] as a long-term sideways trend. And if we are talking about the short-term situation, then we will now have a small downward movement followed by a movement towards this sideways trend . Let's call this a short-term breakout. It is clear that at

[13:03] the moment this is the picture, it takes into account the current state of affairs. But if takes into account the current state of affairs. But if the situation with incoming gas continues to escalate, and if the enemy starts to destroy gas distribution networks, and I

[13:17] think this will probably happen in the winter , unless a peace agreement is signed, then, of course, we will see a subsequent decline, and lower, because the incoming gas is currently mainly affecting Lukoil and Rasneft, but

[13:31] these incoming gas hasn't reached Gazprom yet, but it will, that's the point. So for now it's like this , but we'll keep our fingers crossed. Let's now look at Gazpromneft. Here are the arrivals regarding Gazpromneft, they really have a serious

[13:46] impact here. Let me remind you that our previous review, which was dated a couple of months ago, expected the market to go lower to the 326 range. That is, we have this

[13:58] level, and it still remains. This review was around March, or something like that, twenty-sixth year, that is, somewhere around here, plus or minus. And we actually went at that moment. We are now seeing a serious emergence of

[14:11] now seeing a serious emergence of acceleration. And this is acceleration without volume. That is, we don’t have the volumes that we should have. This indicates that we are highly likely to continue our

[14:24] we are highly likely to continue our movement toward the 326 range. Our current correction level is 460. And the next correction level is, of course, 480. So, we have a very serious

[14:38] selling area. Let's designate this as the sales area. We don't have any serious short signals yet, so if we do enter, we'll do so through moderate averaging with a stop loss of roughly above 500. We'll probably

[14:52] cover Gazpromneft in future reviews, so for now, that's it. The next paper we'll look at is, of course, Rosneft. But I wanted to say that Rosneft is, well, probably the most, perhaps the main victim of the

[15:06] current arrivals. And here everything is, in fact, very bad. Let me remind you that our key signal was before the movement to the 313 range. This, accordingly, is a short. We got there. At the moment we don't see any buyer emerging here. That is,

[15:21] we have no candle of reassurance, no candle of the buyer, no SVE, nothing at all. That is, we are now seeing some kind of short-term small rebound against the backdrop of, you know, some kind of general positivity. Someone here

[15:34] tried to buy a little bit. Well, but that's probably all. Therefore, to be honest, I wouldn’t talk about any kind of full-fledged reversal . Here we still have a bearish scenario. Let's mark the key level,

[15:47] which we have already broken through 313, so we will move lower. Our next level is 243. Let's designate the level, not even 243, let's

[15:59] build 250. Therefore, our key scenario is a further movement towards 250, possibly through the appearance of some small, insignificant rebound, pullback and insignificant rebound, pullback and movement lower. If we

[16:14] simply don't have a signal for a short yet, if we see a significant downward movement now , then we can confidently enter beyond the impulse candle with a stop-loss order around here and, accordingly, a range of up to about 250. I also remind you that, most

[16:28] likely, well, I had a situation with KamAZ: I opened a short position on KamAZ, and the broker called me and said that we would be forcibly closing the shorts because KamAZ is no longer a short stock.

[16:41] stock.

[16:53] that we have the opportunity to trade futures. And on futures you can trade both long and short. The only thing is, please keep in mind The only thing is, please keep in mind that futures are virtual

[17:06] leverage, and therefore it is necessary to evaluate this and not do stupid things here. Let's also look at Rosneft on monthly charts. On the monthly charts, things are looking very bad here. We see how we had a fall

[17:20] in December of 24. They started to dump it, and the largest blocks of shares were dumped in 1922 due to understandable tragic geopolitical events. In March of 26, they tried to

[17:32] go up on a positive note, but the movement picked up speed, and for this reason, they began to fall speed, and for this reason, they began to fall further. So we're moving towards the 250 area. my unlucky one, actually, because I'm on the plane buying for

[17:48] 250,000. There are no longer 250 there, there are less left. But a couple of weeks ago I went short on airplane futures to hedge my position because I expect further downside movement. What would you like to say about the plane? We all expected the rate to be lowered, but with the Vladimir-Putin movement and the fuel crisis, it's clear the rate won't be lowered quickly.

[18:03] What would you like to say about the plane? We all expected the rate to be lowered, but with the Vladimir-Putin movement and the fuel crisis, it's clear the rate won't be lowered quickly.

[18:23] happen. Therefore, geopolitical factors and the economy have a very negative impact on the Airplane stock. Their debts simply grew very large. We will hope that the state will try to at least co-finance this paper,

[18:38] because after all, a huge number of interests are involved here, both on the part of the capital and on the part of the developers. No one would want people standing near the Kremlin tomorrow with a single picket and demanding: "Give us our money back, you bankrupted the airplane company, I fought."

[18:59] Therefore, of course, the plane will be saved, and we want to see this, to see the appearance of capital here. At this point, it is too early to talk about any kind of reversal here . The trend here is definitely bearish. We have a trend line here

[19:13] , so we move on. Let's at least switch to a weekly chart and try to find at least some, I don't know, potential. Let's tie ourselves to this wave. For this wave. And then we move on to the daily

[19:27] timeframe. We broke through 1.618. This means we will move further, lower within the This means we will move further, lower within the framework of the current trend movement. framework of the current trend movement.

[19:48] we had volumes here, but these volumes are not for buying, because the realization is bearish. After our market rose a little, we got this rejection candle. It points to a powerful seller. That is,

[20:03] the movement, the short-term upward movement, was perceived by participants as an opportunity to exit, not to enter. So next is area 200. We move further down. Let's look at the gold pole. Our colleagues evaluate the gold pole very

[20:19] positively. This is connected, of course, with geopolitical risks, with the fact that everything is becoming much more complicated. Poly Gold is a mining company that strictly speaking, gold grows and the ruble falls, then the gold field also grows. That's

[20:34] understandable. But we must not forget that this is still a private company, right? OK? And if this is a private company, let's move on, this is not a direct purchase of gold. You buy a company that mines gold. These are slightly

[20:49] different things. We had several options, but they didn’t work out. This is probably one of the few cases where something didn't work out for us. I wrote a question mark here. We expected that we would see growth from a range of approximately 2,000

[21:03] . There was no growth, so we got a stop here. We are still in a bearish trend, consolidated below the 2,000 ruble area. We see how our volumes are starting to fall. A drop in volume amid a bearish

[21:19] trend indicates that the bearish trend has become established. And that's a bad sign. Let's outline the areas we can reach together. The next we can reach together. The next area is the 1.800 area.

[21:33] area is the 1.800 area. If it is broken, we move to 1.640. But a lot needs to be done, but everything now depends on geopolitics. If some kind of geopolitical agenda appears in our market , then we may see a

[21:47] reversal here. Therefore, in the short term, if we see a large bearish candlestick appearing downwards here, we immediately go into sale with a stop behind this candlestick, a take profit here and a take profit here. Here we have a short.

[22:04] short. Let's call it short-term short, long-term

[22:19] if things go badly. Let's take a look at the VKontakte promotion. By the way, in my VKontakte group, scan this QR code, I published an analysis of this very VKontakte. And let me remind you that we are very bearish on this stock. In

[22:32] February of 26, we saw a serious shortfall of large amounts of money in the region, somewhere around 318 rubles. for paper. We saw it directly and predicted it clearly . They wrote short here. Then they tried to look for demand. At 280 they

[22:48] didn't find him, at 245 they didn't find him. And then we move lower. Our next target is 131 rubles. And this corresponds to approximately 1.68 Fibonacci levels of this

[23:00] serious big drop. We are currently short the We are currently short the 245 range with a tight stop. If for some reason you didn't manage to get into the charts, expect some

[23:14] short-term upward movement followed by a downward movement. We are definitely moving towards 131 with a stop here. So far we have seen an increase in volume, but there has been no serious upward momentum, so it is highly likely that this volume is

[23:29] directed downwards. I'll be back in a week or two, and we'll get back to VKontakte promotions and do another review. The pressure on VKontakte is not only due to the fact that it was removed

[23:42] from the App Store, which is complete [ __ ]. Poor leadership and management within the company has an impact. The company is increasing its debt against the backdrop of huge subsidies. The company simply doesn't know how to make money, so we'll move on below.

[23:56] on neural networks by scanning this QR code and checking it out . I wish you good luck. Please leave comments about which securities I should consider next. Happy earning.