Stock Market Manual | Ep. 3 - The Assets That Ride the Biggest Waves

[00:35] hear me? Looking closely? Is everything alright over there? Please give me some feedback. I hope everything is OK. And then tell me how it is in your city, cold, hot. Go ahead, you can tell us the

[00:51] city. How's the weather there? Here in Taubaté. Yes, yes, yes. Top. OK. Beauty. It's here in Taubaté. It's all very hot right now, isn't it? The day began, and the sun was blazing. Well, it was cold, then it got

[01:07] warmer, and now it's burning hot. It's the same in Belém do Pará. That's right , Francisco. A big hug. Let's wait for everyone to get here. Hey everyone on Instagram, good evening!

[01:25] Guarulhos, it's cool now, isn't it? It's fresh for me now too, right? I turned on the air conditioning, so now it's nice and cool.

[01:41] Beauty. Let's go, everyone. Look, we have a ton of material to cover today, okay? And since yesterday was since yesterday was my wife's birthday, okay? And

[01:55] today, some people are coming to my house to bring her a present, since she couldn't bring one yesterday. So I'll have to , unfortunately, stop around 8 pm, chat and talk. So I don't want to spend too much time here in

[02:11] want to spend too much time here in this first presentation, okay? So this first presentation, okay? So let's get started for real, okay? Ah,

[02:27] first of all, welcome to another one. Okay, and I need to recap with you all Okay, and I need to recap with you all where we came from and where we've arrived now. So, in the first episode, I

[02:43] told the story of the bag and proved to you that it's not a gamble, right? In episode two, we talked about the city map, where we showed that

[02:56] money moves from one neighborhood to another, right? Depending on the tide of interest rates, depending, for example, on the price of commodities, OK? You all remember up to that point, right? Well, folks, today the map ends up

[03:13] Well, folks, today the map ends up becoming a magnifying glass.

[03:25] right neighborhood is important, but it's only half the battle, okay? In the half the battle, okay? In the right neighborhood, the best neighborhood in the city for right neighborhood, the best neighborhood in the city for that moment, right? Some houses are nice, and some

[03:39] only look nice from the outside, right? Some companies are genuinely profitable, and others live on appearances, on talk, on promises, right? Regarding that thing, it's

[03:53] not going to recover, there won't be any news about it, the owner won't change, it won't be sold. is to look inside this house before knocking on the door, without you needing to be an

[04:07] economist and without crazy spreadsheets, with simple questions that anyone can with simple questions that anyone can understand. Well, as has become tradition, right? Uh, I wanted to make available to you today, for

[04:19] those who will be staying and watching with us, an e-book, okay? Where I'll be talking about risk management, which is partly what we'll be covering in today's lesson. Perfect. So, how are you all going to download this ebook? Look, for those who are on

[04:34] Instagram, I'm going to invite them to come here to YouTube, okay? And then, if you can, uh,

[04:47] the link on Instagram, but for those who want to understand about risk management, see here. Here in the chat, okay, folks, from YouTube, where it's stuck here, look. If you click here, it will open exactly this ebook

[05:03] free. Enter your information here to download this ebook for free. Unlike a lot of what we see out there, it's not a four- page thing. If I'm not mistaken, it's 25 or 24 pages, where we

[05:19] address this seriously, because I know that one of the main reasons people lose money in the market is not understanding this aspect: risk management. understanding this aspect: risk management. So, to avoid leaving it all for the end,

[05:33] So, to avoid leaving it all for the end, now. Yeah, and I think that's it. We can move on to the next slide now. Okay, so I can start talking to you all here. Look, it's important for

[05:50] me to tell you that we're going to start talking about this from a fundamentalist perspective, okay? Because the first question we're going to try to answer is, within a specific sector or

[06:04] neighborhood, how are we making this reference? What are some interesting assets to buy? That's the first question to be buy? That's the first question to be answered. And after that,

[06:18] a question that's just as important: What's the timing for this purchase? So, we begin here to look at something from a fundamentalist perspective. I'm not an

[06:30] expert in this, I know the basics and I think that with the basics I can reach my conclusions and choose from that sector what I want the ones that I find most interesting. Now, to begin answering you, let's make that

[06:45] reference to neighborhoods, sectors, houses, right? Well, the question is something like, would you buy the house just by looking at the picture in the ad? I've seen it, that's why I'm ad? I've seen it, that's why I'm afraid of Airbnb, because every Airbnb

[06:59] is beautiful when you arrive, but most of them are terrible, right? Because the guy puts up a shot of a beautiful facade, a detailed description. Of course not, right? You were going to visit, go inside, look at the plumbing, see if there are

[07:14] leaks, check if the roof will collapse in the first rain, ask the neighbor if the street floods, if there are any, for example, right? Uh, a storm drain in the street, what a huge drain this is here in Taubaté, especially, because every now and

[07:29] then one street or another collapses, right? So you inspect it before you buy. No one in their right mind buys property based solely on a photo. But in the stock market, most people buy based on the picture. I bought it because an influencer recommended it,

[07:43] because it was trending, or because my brother-in-law gave me the tip at the barbecue. People, a why did I buy these shares here?" But how could that not be? My brother-in-law said it, my

[07:56] father-in-law said it, man. All this without ever having snooped around, to see what it's like inside, right? And then you wonder why you got hurt, why so many people get hurt, right? So today we're going to

[08:11] give you a magnifying glass, okay? I'm going to teach you how to visit the company from the inside before becoming a partner, which is a medium- to long-term concept, but it's really for traders, okay? This ends up being an interesting filter, because

[08:27] even if it's in the short term, you 'll be a partner in this company for a few days, owning a little piece of that house. Perfect. Let's go, then. Just to keep this in mind, okay? In real life, nobody buys game based on a photo. In the stock market, almost

[08:42] everyone buys and then asks why they got hurt. Now, speaking of questions, what are the questions we should

[08:54] ask ourselves before buying this house? There are four questions, only four. If you ask yourself these four questions before buying any stock, you'll already be ahead of the vast majority of people

[09:11] who invest in the shield. So let's go, everyone. Grab a pen and paper, or save this video, or just keep copying and pasting because it fits, this stuff is gold to me, it helps me so much at all times. Okay

[09:25] , first question.

[09:38] It seems obvious, right? But pay attention, because there are many companies that don't make a profit, no profit at all, that only live on promises, hoping to take off next year. It's that kind of house that looks nice on the outside but

[09:53] It's that kind of house that looks nice on the outside but has no structure whatsoever on the inside. And in the end, folks, the price follows the profit. So, a good company is one that consistently makes real money , year after year.

[10:09] If it has been profitable for years, it's a sign that the structure is solid. If it only brings losses and promises the future, man, it should set off

[10:22] and promises the future, man, it should set off alarm bells. What is this? What is this, guys? When we think about it from a

[10:37] fundamentalist perspective, price divided by earnings shows how many times the market is willing to pay in effort relative to the company's annual profit.

[10:50] It is the translator of the question of the fair price. The price being too high relative to the profit is like a good house that has become expensive. So, the share price divided by the earnings per share.

[11:02] Let's go. It's impossible to be completely objective here. Why? Because each sector has a fair share price. For example, in the financial sector, a company such as an

[11:17] investment advisory firm can, at a good time, be worth 20 times its profit. See if you understand the concept. Let's say that by the end of this year I have made

[11:29] that by the end of this year I have made a profit of, say, a profit of, say, 5 million.

[11:42] company? Let's see if you guys can get it right .

[11:55] tell me, okay? If I happen to have a profit of 5 million in a year and my company is worth 20 times that annual profit, what is the fair price? What is a

[12:10] fair price for my company? 100 million. OK. 100 million. Yeah, but man, that's funny, isn't it? Because

[12:23] sometimes my company's stock price goes up to 40 times company's stock price goes up to 40 times earnings, 60 times earnings, even a good company can be expensive, and then it doesn't

[12:38] make sense to buy at that moment, you understand? And sometimes that P/L ratio is negative, meaning

[12:54] that isn't profitable. Let's go. I want to sell you my bakery. You love buying from the losing money. What are you going to pay for my bakery? It's my bakery? It's not going to pay 20 times the profit, is it,

[13:12] number so we have a reference? Because each sector has a fair and different PL (Profit Sharing Program). Now let me ask you, what is the average value of the Ibovespa? Do

[13:24] I think I showed you guys this in one of did previously. Do previously. Do you remember?

[13:41] The average price of the Ibovespa index over the last 20 years, folks, is 10.5 times its earnings. So, if the asset you're trading, the one you're trying to buy, is trading, for example, much lower than that, then of course you

[13:56] need to check to see what the problem is. For example, state-owned companies often negotiate with lower profit margins because the state has influence on their structure, okay? But when there are no variables like that,

[14:09] it means that, OK, the price is reasonable for me to buy. Is that for me to buy. Is that clear, everyone?

[14:21] All good? Can we continue? question, which is also important,

[14:36] man. This company has a balanced debt level, like a house that's completely mortgaged, owing money down to the last brick. It would all

[14:50] owing money down to the last brick. It would all collapse in the first storm, right? With companies, folks, it's exactly the same, right? A little debt is normal, especially , for companies that need to grow, at times it's

[15:05] beneficial to finance part of that growth. Everyone has some kind of debt, right? Well, that's part of it, but a company that's neck-deep in debt is a company that's neck-deep in debt is a company that will go bankrupt at the first sign of crisis.

[15:22] that thrives or one that's suffocating just to pay interest? It doesn't make sense. doesn't make sense. Let's go. Okay

[15:37] pattern, OK? What do I like to use use to find out if a company owes a lot of money or not? We calculate the net debt

[15:53] divided by the EBDAR. EBDAR stands for earnings before interest and EBDAR stands for earnings before interest and debt payments, for example, okay? In other words, it 's debt

[16:06] minus cash divided by operating profit at the end of the day. Hey André, I'm worried, man, because I do n't know how to calculate the webdar. No, man, you have a lot of software out there that

[16:21] you have a lot of software out there that delivers that to you ready-made, right? On Investe em Pro, it costs, I don't know, R$40 or R$ 50 per month, and you get all those numbers from any company in the world, okay? So, this isn't a calculation

[16:35] you have to make. You go there, open the page, and there's that account. Actually, if you ask the EPT chat or the cloud, it will tell you what the net debt divided by the web equity of

[16:47] any company is, right? I just don't know if it's reliable, okay? But he will answer, he will. Hey everyone, very high values, right? Above three or four indicates the highest risk. It's that house that's up

[17:02] to its neck in debt. Perfect. So basically, it's about how many years the company has to basically, it's about how many years the company has to work

[17:16] you understand? Okay, second question answered. Let's move on to the third question, which is the question that almost no one asks.

[17:29] which is the question that almost no one asks. Who takes care of this house? Even for investing in investment funds. I'm going to try to find out

[17:42] who the manager is. You don't do that, do you? Sometimes, man, I find out who he's writing. If the guy is obsessed with politicians, I'm definitely not putting my money into his account anymore , right? Because he won't take good care of

[17:57] my money. He'll probably be pessimistic when his enemy is there and optimistic when the guy, the politician he likes, is there, guy, the politician he likes, is there, right? So it's something I'm careful about, right?

[18:11] Well, I don't want that guy who only talks about that to be the one managing my And when we're going to buy a company, we have to be careful about that, right?

[18:24] Because there are managers who treat the company as if it were their own, with zero respect for those who are partners. These are people who are

[18:38] always getting into trouble and don't take proper responsibility. So, before becoming a partner, it's important that you know who's taking care of your money, right? A good owner takes care of their house, while a bad owner lets it

[18:52] fall apart and takes your money with it. That's why , folks, those who have followed me for a while know that there are certain assets I don't analyze. Why? Because they're going through a process where you have a corporate dispute,

[19:10] it's a change of ownership, right? Since you don't know the new owner, there's been a change in management, I'll stop talking about the asset. Do you want examples? Could it be.

[19:26] I'll give you three examples here . I'll start with perhaps the oldest one. There was a company here that I loved working for, you know? What's this one here,

[19:39] right? Brasquem. This is a monthly chart, okay? Pay attention, everyone. It started okay? Pay attention, everyone. It started to fall in 2021 along with the market, right? But since then, she hasn't stopped falling. If you look closely, it has fallen 90%

[19:56] from the price it had when it hit its all-time high 5 years ago. What's happening with Brasquen? Brasquem, which has always been an excellent company, a company with a huge name in the market, a company that, wow, I've always

[20:10] loved trading with, is simply going through a process simply going through a process where a partner needs to exit the operation and has already put it up for sale. Then someone goes there, makes an offer, the stock goes up

[20:24] a bit, then they don't accept it and so on, I don't know what. It's currently in Well, I don't know how things are going, because I stopped studying the asset, since I'm no longer interested. Until I resolve these outstanding issues, I'm no longer interested.

[20:38] So, I ask you, is it possible to get into the asset market without knowing what's going on in society? That's impossible , right? Want another example?

[20:55] Sugarloaf Mountain. Guys, this asset was simply wonderful to trade. simply wonderful to trade. But since 2018, 2019 it has But since 2018, 2019 it has already changed owners, right? I don't know, maybe 40 times.

[21:09] proceedings or not. I know there's another one going around, there's a guy now buying shares in Pão de Açúcar and stuff. Another case. How much did it cost here?

[21:26] 45%, right? Sorry, 95%. It used to be worth R$40, then R$42, now it's worth 2 grand. Perfect. Can you understand this, guys? By the way, is everything alright there, everyone? It's been hours since I've received a " hello" here.

[21:41] hello" here. Everything's fine. André, you keep talking about these old things, don't you? Let's talk about ASA, okay? which

[21:54] was a company formed by the merger of the Soma and Arezo groups. Everything's OK, great. So the two CEOs, the two owners, they

[22:08] tried to do this, but they couldn't. So, what was supposed to be a huge business, to turn huge business, to turn this into a giant, is falling apart, right?

[22:21] So what happened? It hasn't dropped 90% yet, but it's already down 80%, unfortunately.

[22:37] right? So, for each of these here, okay? There's So, for each of these here, okay? There's another solution, right? Aa is from retail, another solution, right? Aa is from retail, right? You have Renner stores,

[22:52] never remember the Track and Field code, TFCO4, right? That looks at the path completely differently, right? You get it here, 2020 21,

[23:05] okay? 2020, this was down here, right? It's priced above average, even with the retail crisis here in Brazil, right? Well, so you'll always have alternatives, meaning that within that sector, that neighborhood, you'll have

[23:20] good houses and bad houses. And we need, man, to be somewhat familiar with the market to know exactly what we're going to look at, and what we're not even going to look at, okay? So, that's the third question to be asked. And that's the fourth question,

[23:35] question to be asked. And that's the fourth question, okay? respond, okay? Because if I answer yours, another 30 people will show up

[23:50] don't think that's fair. I'll either answer all of them or none of them, okay? But ask these questions. Go look up, for example, the size of Magazine Luiza's profit margin, right? The size

[24:02] of the profit has been increasing, right? the level of indebtedness. Another question you of indebtedness. Another question you could ask is: is this house growing or is it stagnant? A company that sells more

[24:16] each year, that's gaining ground, is like a house that appreciates in value over time, right? Now, a company that's stagnant and sells today the same amount it sold 10 years ago, or even doubles its sales, but has half the profit margin,

[24:29] half the profit margin, is like a house that's getting old. Remember when I talked about the neighborhood under construction in the previous episode? A growing business is like a house that increases in value

[24:42] along with the surrounding forest neighborhood. If it doesn't grow, it gets bad. So how can you check, folks, if that company

[24:54] you're thinking of buying, or that you 're looking at, is growing or not? It's very simple, okay? There's an indicator, or rather, two, okay?

[25:09] Which you can measure, which is the Gre Gagre, I don't know , G, GR GR, okay? And ROY are two numbers that translate, man, very well to whether this company is growing

[25:21] this company is growing or not, okay? CR is the compound growth rate, okay? It shows the average compound growth rate over a specific period, and you can do the calculations for 3, 5, and

[25:35] 10 years, and it ends up revealing whether the company is growing consistently, not just in a lucky year, right? Because even a stopped clock is right twice a

[25:49] day. And ROY, which is the return on investment, is important because it's pointless investment, is important because it's pointless to sell 10 times more if your profit

[26:03] to generate value and growth using the shareholder's own resources using the shareholder's own resources . I mean, dude, how much return are you getting on that capital you have there? So, based on what you earn, right?

[26:19] These are two very important numbers. Actually, this one, important numbers. Actually, this one, in particular, my companies, right? I want my ROI

[26:34] I want my ROI to be huge, right? uh, this ends up being the fourth question

[26:48] we're always going to ask now. There it is company is genuinely profitable, it's heavily in debt,

[27:14] one more question we haven't asked yet, okay? Perhaps even more yet, okay? Perhaps even more important than those four combined is how much you're going to pay this company, okay? And this deserves a slide, okay?

[27:31] company, okay? And this deserves a slide, okay? Well, a lot of people, let me tell you, the market went from 130,000 points last year to

[27:43] went from 130,000 points last year to 200,000 points two months ago. Many people ended up losing money. I do n't know if you're the kind of person you're interested in here, okay? Hey, if you go, don't be shy, okay? Because you're here to learn, and that's perfectly

[27:55] fine, right? If I knew everything, if you knew everything, you wouldn't need to be here. Sometimes everything, you wouldn't need to be here. Sometimes

[28:08] but at 200,000 points, scared. When the fear passed, you said: "Now I'm going, now it's going to happen."

[28:25] paid a high price. Why? For good companies, for example. Why? For good companies, for example. Look, everyone agrees, right, that Itaú is a good company.

[28:41] Everyone agrees, right? But the guy who bought it at 48, he's already But the guy who bought it at 48, he's already seen it drop to 38. And the guy who bought it at 48 didn't get a bad company, he got a good company that's

[28:56] currently going through a correction process. Vale, everyone agrees it's a good company. good company. It's time for the third or fourth largest

[29:09] mining company in the world. It used to be R$91, now it's R$ 71. Same Petrobras, right? It was 50 the other day, now it's 41.

[29:24] was 50 the other day, now it's 41. In other words, come on, it's great, but way too expensive, no way. It has to be good and fairly priced. But then,

[29:37] folks, I'd like to move away from the fundamentals for a bit , because for me,

[29:49] because for me, okay? Price is what you pay, value is what you get. When you find a valuable company and buy it at the

[30:06] right price, the chance of you right price, the chance of you succeeding in the long term is very high. So, what's left to do is figure out at what price. And for that reason,

[30:21] figure out at what price. And for that reason, folks, I prefer technical analysis to fundamental analysis. But André, you were talking about how fundamentals are perfect for finding value, how

[30:37] fundamental analysis is sensational, but to find timing, it's about price. And that's where you need something called a method. Let's talk about methodology, okay? Let me

[30:50] tell you, for example, one of the ways I like to observe the market when thinking about a purchase, okay? I call it a moving average correction strategy. Of course,

[31:06] I'm not going to teach you this in 20 minutes, half an hour, which is the time I have, okay? All of this that's here, you've never heard of Down syndrome theory, or if you have, great, okay? But perhaps you haven't heard of chart timeframes,

[31:20] which I use; I use more than one chart timeframe to make decisions. Well, it's not about the size of the movement, the minimum distance between lows and lows and highs, nor about moving averages, what is a moving average, or even about

[31:32] risk management. Hey, give it to me, you're giving me a heads-up here that's on this side, and I apologize, okay? But I don't want to explain that to you today. I want to show you that it's important to have a method, and that it's not some crazy, out-of-this-world thing; it's

[31:47] relatively simple, okay? Beauty? simple, okay? Beauty? So this will help me determine the price at which I should buy this company. When Anderson is there, she's expensive, and

[32:03] when she's not, she's expensive. Perfect. So come here with me.

[32:15] I always look at three timeframes. Perfect. rise over time is observing its peaks and troughs. For example, it would be

[32:30] peaks and troughs. For example, it would be something like this. do. André, tell me, does this chart for this company

[32:44] look like something going up or something going down? I imagine you gentlemen will say: "Wow, it looks like something that rises over time." Furthermore, we can see that there's

[32:59] a line here called a moving average, which is an average, an average of the price, okay? Same average grade at school, right? Oh, there was this guy who sat in the front row and only got 10s. What's his math average at the end of the year?

[33:14] 10, right? So there you were, sitting way in the back , only getting fives, which was all you right? Knowing you, I know you were a total loser in school, okay? I was too. I was one of those guys who passed, but I did n't even get half a point more than I

[33:29] needed, right? Just to get rid of it the right way, you know? Not to mention any leftovers, right? What was your average grade? Five. This is the average price. It's that simple, okay? As? Ah, how do

[33:43] I know what the average is? Wow, what was it like at school? You would draw 5, 6, 4, and 5. You would add the four, then divide by four. What do you have? An arithmetic average of four two-month periods, right?

[33:58] right? So, look, when the price deviates from the So, look, when the price deviates from the average, what do you do? Are

[34:13] or are you betting that it will return to the mean? I'll give you an example, okay? You were that straight-A student. Perfect. But one fine day there was a test there, brand X, but you guessed everything and got it right. You got a 10.

[34:34] average. Perfect. But let's do this: let's bet on what your grade will be on your next test. Would you

[34:52] rather bet on another 10 in the next test, or would you bet that in the on another 10 in the next test, or would you bet that in the next test you'll return to average?

[35:07] buy one, or anything like that. Forget about it, okay ?

[35:20] next test . 10 means the guy has never gotten a 10 in his life. It was the first one from Bambo, as we say in Tocantins and Goiás.

[35:32] You only bet on the average, right? What time will you leave for work tomorrow? Oh, André, I have to get to work at 8 in the morning. It takes me about half an hour on average.

[35:46] How long before you leave home will you be leaving? Half an hour. If you're betting on the average, right? Tomorrow, those who are in Porto Alegre, when they get dressed in the morning, what will they wear? Bermuda shorts and a t-shirt, or a jacket and trousers;

[36:04] long trousers. It's a coat and long pants, because it's cold in Porto Alegre, in Curitiba. Similarly, I had a friend from Belém who said, "Tomorrow, are you

[36:16] going to leave the house in a jacket, or are you going to leave in shorts and a t-shirt if you don't have to work?" Of course he's wearing shorts and a t-shirt. Tomorrow, at 8 am shorts and a t-shirt. Tomorrow, at 8 am , it'll be 78º in the shade, right? We

[36:28] always bet on the average. So what do we do here? We buy when the price gets close to the average. right? So, for example, for my trading style, on the daily chart, I buy everything that's

[36:42] making higher highs and higher lows and that has returned to the moving averages, OK? And if it's the opposite, if it's making descending highs and lows like it is here and has returned to the that a lot of people don't even know is possible,

[36:58] possible, which is selling, okay, to try to make money from the market falling, you know?

[37:11] possible. Yes, that's how it is, and you'll learn with time. Those who don't know yet will learn eventually, right? I also like to use the weekly schedule. I also like to just look at the average. I use the 72-period moving average, OK?

[37:24] If the price is above that average, I just want to buy it. If it's low, I just want to sell. And on the 60-minute chart, folks, I buy at the pivot point, for example, right here. This is an asset that, let's say, is doing very

[37:40] This is an asset that, let's say, is doing very well on a daily and weekly basis. When the well on a daily and weekly basis. When the top is broken, I buy the asset with a top is broken, I buy the asset with a stop loss at the bottom, below the previous low,

[37:52] and targets higher up. Look how interesting. Perfect. want to sell because I earn that money from selling, right? I sell when the

[38:08] selling, right? I sell when the bottom is broken, OK? With a stop-loss order, which is that automatic order to exit the trade,

[38:20] uh, I close my position here, okay? In the case of making a sale. Hey guys, what can I assemble ? A flowchart,

[38:35] because a method is a method. You're not going to do one thing today and another tomorrow, why you're getting paid. Why do you win? Oh no, I win because I don't know why you lose? Damn, I don't know how that works. I don't know. Don't you know why

[38:48] you win, why you lose? How can you sleep like that? Okay, this has to be worse than rooting for Vasco, man, right? So you need to know. For that to happen, there needs to be

[39:01] So you need to know. For that to happen, there needs to be my process is like. I open a chart, for example, in the journal, okay? Which I call the main time frame. He's making higher highs

[39:16] and higher lows. That's my first question. Is it making descending highs and lows, it's making higher highs and higher lows , it has an upward trend, and I want to buy. If he's not there, I don't want anything. Leave him alone. OK.

[39:36] second one. Has the price returned to the moving average region? Oh, it didn't come back, so I don't want to buy it. Here it is, purchase condition not met. If it purchase condition not met. If it 's back in stock, then I really want to buy it.

[39:52] And then I ask another question. The price is above a line in the average of the weekly chart. It's a line, okay? Ah, that's difficult. What are you telling me? It 's difficult to check if the price is right, isn't it? You have the price, you have a line. You have to

[40:06] check if it's above or below. It's above, André. Okay, then. Yeah, I might want to buy it. Where am I going to buy it ? When the 60-minute timeframe shows a breakout from a high with a stop loss below the low, what do I have in mind? Good

[40:20] risk management. I'll discuss this topic with you in the next class. Let's go. From there I can think about buying an asset, okay? Selling is the same Tops and bottoms must be descending, they must have returned to the average, they must be

[40:36] weekly chart. Of course, I'll sell a breakout from the bottom with a stop above the I decide how much I'm going to enter the trade with, and I go for it. Perfect.

[40:54] , see? Okay? Man, I'm looking at the asset and I think, "Ah, I think I want to buy it." The first thing I look at is that there are ascending tops and right? Then I come here and do the

[41:06] right? Then I come here and do the calculation, okay? Okay, okay, okay, okay. Yes, it has ascending tops and bottoms. So, you want to buy it, right? Let me see If it didn't have a trend, I wouldn't want it,

[41:20] but since it's making an ascending top-bottom pattern, it's come back close to my averages, right? I use 17.72 on the daily chart. You can use it however you want, it's just a reference. OK. Let's see if it's back. He's back! It returned. It's right on

[41:32] top of them, you understand? Oh, this purple one here is for 17 periods. This one is 72 periods long. Then he returned. Perfect. So, there you have it. If he hadn't come back, I wouldn't have wanted him to. It returned. It returned. And on the weekly chart, is it above or below

[41:46] And on the weekly chart, is it above or below that line? It's above. It's above. So, uh uh, if it wasn't available, I wouldn't want to buy it, but as it is, I want to. And in 60 minutes, ah, I'll see where the peak is, okay? And the bottom, because when

[42:04] this breaks through the top, it's very likely that this will start to go up. I will buy on the breakout of the top, with a stop loss below the bottom. Look how top, with a stop loss below the bottom. Look how simple this is. OK,

[42:17] closed. Yes, uh, here, look. Okay? I'll determine how much money I'm going to put into the operation; that's a topic for the next class. Okay, I can go in now, right? someone commented, "Hey André, I have

[42:31] your swing trading app, right?" This is how it appears in the app, This is how it appears in the app, okay? Well, every day I put the asset there, right? When there's a call option, the entry price, the exit price, the

[42:45] final target, all of that goes to my client, okay? Let's go. I like examples. I like examples. Let's go. So, let's give more examples, okay? This is a goal. Back when Gol was traded.

[43:00] Gol, she had descending tops and bottoms . Gol had returned in the moving averages. Gol was below the average of 72 on the weekly chart. What did she need to sell it? From a bearish pivot on the chart. 60 minutes. When

[43:16] you see this pivot, what have I done? I sold that train below the bottom with a stop I sold that train below the bottom with a stop above the top, looking for what? A fall in goal. And it really happened. In fact, that was the beginning of the end for

[43:30] Gol. Let's go. I like examples, okay? Another one. Is it making higher highs and higher lows ? Yes, right? Yes, it's clearly

[43:43] making higher highs and higher lows. Did it return to the averages? It returned. Perfect, then . How is the price performing relative to the 72-day moving average on the relative to the 72-day moving average on the weekly chart? It's above. Legal. So, what do

[43:56] I do? I'm going to use the 60- minute chart, but where am I going to buy it? minute chart, but where am I going to buy it? Breakout from the top Breakout from the top with a stop below the bottom. Just

[44:09] with a stop below the bottom. Just a minute, let me see.

[44:35] operation that went very well, right? And folks, this seems like something far, far away, but something like this happens every day, right? I Mateus is making higher highs and higher lows and has returned to the moving average region

[44:51] . The weekly chart is above the average of 72. What did the 60-minute chart do top, bottom. When it breaks through the top, you enter by bottom. When it breaks through the top, you enter by buying a stop-loss below that

[45:06] bottom as well. Another good operation. And even as well. Another good operation. And even in times like this, you know, that we're living through, of market correction, every now and then, we have the

[45:20] market correction, every now and then, we have the opportunity to think about trading. Come here with me, okay? Petrobras, it's back in the averages, right? Her weekly chart is above the average of 72 that's here.

[45:37] Clearly she's making ascending highs and highs . And in the 60-minute chart, what is she close to achieving? A pivot. In other words, you can buy when it breaks through other words, you can buy when it breaks through 41.40 with a stop-loss below 39.83.

[45:53] Let's go. April. right? Same thing, okay? It's average, right? Actually, an even prettier one, right? What happened, look, VBBR did what?

[46:05] Pivot on the 60-minute chart, look. Today she came within a few cents of the target, she came within a few cents of the target, okay? This line here is exactly the target. Perfect. So, what do I get here?

[46:21] I'll start using a method, okay? now I have a method, right? What do I do? Buy now? Run, hold on, okay?"

[46:36] Here comes the part that almost nobody teaches properly. And for me, if I give any series of lectures and don't talk about this, I go crazy, okay? Because in the end, this is what will make the difference.

[46:51] I'll give you a certainty. You won't hit the exact bottom. You won't hit that perfect day to buy. Nobody gets that right. Not me, not anyone, not even the greatest genius in the market. And you also don't need to

[47:06] market. And you also don't need to hold the asset for life with your eyes closed. There's a smart middle ground , okay? You take advantage of the big movements, enter with a method when the scenario is favorable, which is what

[47:19] I think will happen in the coming months, and exit when it no longer makes This has nothing to do with that madness of being glued to the screen all day, desperately pressing the button, doing day trading, right? Oh, André, but

[47:34] have what anymore. What to do in life. That's my profession. You don't; you have engineer, and so on, it might not be for you. You'll have to leave your position to do that. You're not even sure if it will work out or not. You know

[47:47] what I want you to do? The opposite of that. It's calm, it's method, it's few that. It's calm, it's method, it's few decisions and good decisions. And there's a shield, which is risk management, which is not a frill

[48:07] at all. It's what keeps you alive, okay? No matter how much you inspect the alive, okay? No matter how much you inspect the house, no matter how certain you are, you never put everything into one house. In other words, we have to divide our

[48:20] other words, we have to divide our capital, unfortunately, into more assets. Remember the mistake that breaks beginners that I told you about in episode two? If you fall in love with a place and put all your money, all your cents there,

[48:32] all your reais, all your millions there, at some encounter a situation like Brumadinho, like when Petrobras changed

[48:45] presidents in 2018, like when the strike happened. Truck drivers. And then risk management will function like a seatbelt, okay? Because once again, even the most thoroughly inspected company in the world can have a

[49:00] surprise down the line. And your shield is what ensures that the only surprise that can happen, which is a failure in risk management caused by fraud, as happened with Lojas Americanas, for example, doesn't take you out of the game. And so,

[49:16] folks, risk management is by no means some kind of frill for those who are afraid, frill for those who are afraid, okay? It's what keeps you standing, okay? okay? It's what keeps you standing, okay? Long enough to win.

[49:29] Perfect. Uh, next week, next week I want to delve into this risk management thing here with you, but before that I'd like

[49:47] you, but before that I'd like you, to be more you, to be more complete, to read the devil of the complete, to read the devil of the ebook, okay? Because that will leave you

[50:00] much better prepared so that you can understand, okay? can understand, okay? So that you can understand what I'm going to talk about next week. So, ah, André, how do I download it? Is it

[50:14] on YouTube? Yes. So, you come here, look, you're stuck in the chat here. Click here. Let's go . Risk management. Done, finished. Perfect. Great. Excellent. Okay, Andra. I'm on Instagram, finishing up. Go to my DM and

[50:29] download the e-book, okay?" "I'll send it to you next." Deal? Perfect, guys. Uh,

[50:48] so, we have the story, the map, the magnifying glass, and, man, next week comes the last piece, which is risk management, okay? Which for me is the most talk once again about the event I'm doing with Stormer on August 3rd, 4th, and 5th, okay

[51:07] ? Uh, free, no price, no product, no catch. Yeah, and it's very simple too. I just want you to register. Perfect. Where, André? Help me, man. Right here

[51:22] below, the third wave, okay? I want you to understand something very simple, okay? Why we call this the third wave, right?

[51:36] We're going to talk about that. And besides that, man, if a gigantic wave is coming, which is what we believe, I need to tell you about the mistakes I've seen happen in the past, that caused many

[51:50] people to make a lot of money only to... People can prepare themselves. Uh, [clearing throat] and putting aside the mistakes of others, okay? And then create an offensive plan with you so that , correcting these mistakes, we can

[52:04] , correcting these mistakes, we can look ahead and figure out how we're going to ride this third wave. Let's go. The first one, from 2002 to wave. Let's go. The first one, from 2002 to 2010, the market rose 800%, from 2016 to

[52:17] 2021 it rose 300%. And if we're right, okay? It could be just 300, it doesn't have to be 800, okay? Uh, who knows, maybe we'll have the stock market at 400,000, 500,000 points soon, okay? I 'm not promising that because anyone who

[52:30] promises anything in variable income is a big crook. But what I 'm telling you is that if it comes, I want you all to be prepared. you all to be prepared. So go ahead, sign up and I really appreciate

[52:45] So go ahead, sign up and I really appreciate your presence. Uh, we'll finish next week. This is the first process, okay? Remember that Thursday, Friday, and Saturday there's Expert. Uh, we'll be there with our stand. You

[53:00] we'll be there with our stand. You 'll see it at the Trader Arena, it's where the trader events are, okay? Uh, there's a photo of me and Stormer talking about the third wave, just go there. And one of these here,

[53:14] I promise you, okay? Properly signed, uh, actually, properly, uh, uh, uh, uh, free, okay? And if you want, with my signature. Deal.

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