Market Will Keep Falling? Ozon, Polus, Novatek, and VTB Under Pressure

[00:02] the economic, political, and geopolitical events that took place over the past week, and how they will impact the coming week. We will also review some securities. My name is Zvezn Artem Anatolyevich. I have been trading in the markets since

[00:16] 2008. Qualified investor, certificate of the Central Bank. Here is the yield chart. Let's go. So, before we get going, let us briefly remind you that our sites are blocked by Roskomnadzor. We were left with the Central Bank. He did this based on a

[00:32] denunciation written by a person for political reasons. The thing is that what I'm saying in these videos, actually, is a very sharp blow to the false patriots who, yes, we, yes, yes, yes. Naturally, people

[00:47] don’t like this, I understand them perfectly. I don't hold any grudge. That is, I don’t have any hatred towards this person. May God grant him health and long life. And so he wrote a denunciation against us, saying that somewhere there we have a mention of several

[01:01] cryptocurrency exchanges, namely the Binance cryptocurrency exchange and the OKX cryptocurrency exchange, the largest cryptocurrency exchanges. But since they do not have a license from the Central Bank, simply mentioning these cryptocurrency

[01:14] exchanges is illegal in the Russian Federation. Did any of you know that we have such a law? We did n’t know about this either, that even just mentioning it wasn’t allowed. As it turns out, the Central Bank, instead of

[01:27] issuing us some kind of order or perhaps a fine or some kind of warning, decided to immediately bash two websites that this same informant wrote to. We complied with the requirements of the Central Bank immediately, within 3 hours we were given 24 hours

[01:41] to correct them, but apparently either we removed something incorrectly, or it was simply a weekend. Because the demands were given to us on Friday evening. We were given 24 hours to fix it. But there is a nuance. We were given a calendar day, but

[01:56] services are closed on Saturday and Sunday. So, whether you like it or not, it turns out that you, well, can’t because the regulator is simply on the weekend, and you were given 24 hours to correct it. This is also called bureaucracy. Of course, the websites weren't

[02:09] unblocked for us, so right now a lawyer is reviewing all the websites and pages. It takes 2,500 pages on our resources to find some Central Bank triggers. What can he

[02:22] even use to remove all this? We will then submit notifications and, accordingly, restore access. The standard recovery period is 5 days, but in reality it is one and a half to two months. The experience of our lawyers confirms this.

[02:37] Access to our resources is restored using various bypass tools, such using various bypass tools, such as VPN. Using a VPN is not prohibited in Russia . There is no liability for downloading a VPN, accessing a website

[02:51] through a VPN, etc. The main thing is, don't advertise any specific VPN; you can use two or three, and no one will tell you anything . I understand that it’s inconvenient to use a VPN, but that’s the way things are now, and there’s nothing you can do about it

[03:04] . Here we find ourselves in a situation where, well, it is impossible to comply with the law. Because of its complexity and bulkiness, there is always something that you are sure to break. And there is always some person who, for political

[03:17] reasons, I repeat, will write a denunciation of you and write it down in some letters on the website. We will, of course, unblock the websites because they don't contain child pornography, they don't have political motives, they don't discuss

[03:30] nothing like that there. That is, it’s a regular financial site, nothing special. unblock access, it will just take time. While we're unblocking it, subscribe to the Telegram channel and also, God forgive me, Max. There you will receive

[03:45] notifications and you will also receive additional information. Well, let's get started with the review. Let's start with geopolitical and political events. Over the past week, two key events have impacted the market. This is, of course,

[03:58] the reduction of the Central Bank rate and, of course, the arrivals according to Walbris. Let's start with the Central Bank rate. Absolutely all analysts and economists predicted that the Central Bank rate would be lowered, and some even said that it would be increased. The

[04:13] highest value I heard was 2% to 1625. But the Central Bank, despite the announcement, lowered the rate by 0.25%. Why did

[04:25] this happen? Because the issue is political. You know that I do n’t understand politics, because I don’t watch Kiselyov, Solovyov and other propagandists. Here. And for this reason, I really have nothing to say here

[04:38] . More precisely, there is something to say, but it all goes very much against what you usually hear, right? This means that our current political situation is as follows. this is to create the illusion that everything is under control, that everything is

[04:51] very good, that there is no panic, that we have the fourth largest economy in the world, that we are so great, that we are continuing to grow, and so on, and so forth. And so, this political demand is to create the illusion of normality,

[05:06] to create the illusion that everything is under control, that there are no arrivals, no fuel, no fuel crisis, in short, everything is fine and everything is working for this. If you say that everything is not as it generally happens, you, naturally,

[05:20] get screwed, bots immediately pop up and start writing identical comments, and so on and so forth. So, if we look at the So, if we look at the

[05:32] Elvira Nabiolina, who looks at the statistics. The statistics include various types of goods, such as, for example, the service of renting DVD discs, and the sale of these very DVD discs.

[05:50] last time you bought DVDs? And when did you rent them? And they are in the basket by which inflation is calculated. And thus, through various kinds of And thus, through various kinds of manipulations, the addition of various kinds of, uh,

[06:02] products and services that fall in price, inflation is formed, and based on this very inflation, a certain rate is devised. So, due to such manipulations, the rate is reduced. And this is not done just like that. This is done

[06:16] to create an illusion of normality. And let's look at our supreme one. Yes, he has been in power for 26 years, he doesn’t use smartphones, he doesn’t have the Internet. The only thing he can judge about the reality happening

[06:30] around him is by the people who bring him information. And people, naturally, want to lick deeper, and this is absolutely normal. I don't condemn it. That is, each of us wants to get some kind of good position, yes,

[06:42] and, naturally, to bring about some kind of good event. Well, they will tell you: “Well, manage.” There is nothing wrong with that, it's normal. But over time, due to the fact that a person does not receive any information, he finds himself in some kind of

[06:55] information bubble. Again, there is nothing wrong with this unless you are the leader of the country, you cannot make the right economic and political decisions. And all officials,

[07:11] including Elvira Nabiullina, begin to adapt to your bubble. And so we have a situation where, on the one hand, weekly inflation has increased, the planned inflation for 2027 is being revised upward, and at the same time the rate is being reduced.

[07:26] completely contradicts what is happening. But then the Central Bank comes out and says, "Well, we understand that the fuel crisis and all these other risks that are happening are temporary. They'll go away soon. As

[07:40] if our SVO had ended, and as if, basically, we don't have these drones flying around in the sky and there aren't landings every day, as if all this had happened, right? So, from an economic standpoint, the Central Bank's decision is

[07:53] unjustified. From a political standpoint, it's absolutely justified, because Vladimir Vladimirovich received a folder, and in that folder it says the key rate will be reduced from 14.25% to 14%. And he's sitting there like, "Oh, how

[08:09] good, here's the reduction." Yes, we are great here, and now, basically, we will reach refuel first." And this political factor must always be kept in mind when you make any decisions related to investing,

[08:23] related to buying securities, and so on, and so on, and so on. Otherwise, you will buy VKontakte, and then you will wonder why the stock is falling, despite the fact that a huge amount of money is pouring in. Then you will buy

[08:35] some Sigiz, then you will buy some YGC, and then it will turn out that it was privatized, or rather, that the privatization was cancelled retroactively. You must keep the political factor in mind, of course . I am not judging whether

[08:48] this is good or bad. We live in this reality. This is the reality. If you don’t like this reality, well, then think about how to leave the country or something like that. How will the reduction of the key rate by 0.25% affect?

[09:01] It has already had a sufficient impact, Well, moderately, moderately positively, let's say moderately, moderately positively, let's say , yes, because a 0.25% decline isn't that big, on the one hand, but on the other hand, it's a decline, and participants

[09:13] expect inflation to rise now , and, as a result, money will become a little cheaper. And if money becomes a little cheaper, it will be a little easier to do business. And, naturally, this is a small boost

[09:26] for the Russian stock market. As for business, the second key event is the endless arrivals on Wberris. I can't discuss these arrivals, that is,

[09:38] where they arrived, how many arrived, what happened, and so on. Because the Investigative Committee immediately declared it a terrorist act, and, naturally, by law, you can't discuss these terrorist acts. Especially not,

[09:52] as they say, on your blogs. Especially when I'm watched by people who have watched too much propaganda and are writing endless denunciations of me. So, well, no, I I can say with absolute certainty, What the agents, and traitors to

[10:07] the Motherland, are saying about how this will all be a trigger event, and that the country's economy will collapse, is complete nonsense. So, what did we do? We loaded the data into a neural network and tried to calculate how

[10:22] neural network and tried to calculate how much this would affect the country's GDP. So, much this would affect the country's GDP. So, the neural network showed us the figure of 0.025% of GDP we could lose. That's not even 1%, not even 0.1%, but 0.02.25%.

[10:41] insignificant within the framework of a large country, that, naturally, these arrivals will have absolutely no serious impact on the economy . Again, it seems as if something truly grandiose happened there and so on.

[10:56] Keep in mind that Valberris isn't the only company. We also have Ozone, Yandex Market, and many, many others. They have all the tools, a bunch of these logistics centers. And you judge the size simply because you use

[11:08] This very Valberis. But there's a second nuance here, and it's much more frightening. You know, there's a term called a " risky farming zone." It's a place where you can ostensibly farm, but it's so risky

[11:23] that it's economically unjustified. That is, maybe there'll be a drought or something like that, and your produce won't ripen. So, well, there are always some risks, it's unclear what's going on. Right now

[11:37] , judging by the business climate, we're slowly turning into a risky business zone, because what's important here is the effect of making it very difficult to do

[11:50] business. You can't run a large business because you don't understand that maybe the Prosecutor General's Office will come to you on a denunciation from some political rival, let's say, a hater, and they'll shut you down. Let's

[12:04] take my example. I have two websites, yes, which brought me income. was some kind of income. I paid taxes on this income . I have a staff of employees, whom I am now forced to fire, naturally, because there is

[12:18] no income. And why is there none? Because one person filed a denunciation, citing certain words on the website. And one of you will say: "Well, then one of you will say: "Well, then remove these names from the

[12:30] website, yes, remove these words from the website." It is impossible to comply with a law that is constantly and endlessly changing. Moreover, it is constantly changing in an incomprehensible, illogical manner. And most importantly, the changes are so confusing that,

[12:43] basically, any website can be taken down now. And for me, losing websites is the same as losing a product. That is, I can't sell my services. People who paid for these services cannot access these services without

[12:55] workarounds. And the most interesting thing is, even if you, accordingly, run some kind of comply with the law, have not violated anything anywhere , signed everything everywhere, put footnotes everywhere, LGBT, basically, extremists You don't promote it in Russia

[13:11] , you don't [ __ ] around. And you're a handsome guy, with flags all over you and all that jazz. Tomorrow, a drone will fly into a data center and that's it, and your business is [ __ ]. That means you won't have access to your

[13:24] website anymore, and your data will be lost because there was a drone. And this is a risky business area, unfortunately, many are now facing this. And this is forcing small businesses, particularly medium-sized businesses and

[13:37] large businesses, to postpone those expanded chains, the expansions they had previously planned, to postpone the investments they had previously planned. The investment climate is deteriorating. And in this case, the

[13:52] impact on GDP will be much greater. That is, it's not 0.25%, but much more. Well, that is, hear me out. The very fact of drones has a minimal impact on

[14:04] the economy and on current events , but there is a long-term effect. The long-term effect is that market participants, business participants, and businesses themselves don't want to expand, don't want to do this. Business. This will, of course

[14:20] that we're no longer just a gas station, again due to the endless influx of tourists, the state now earns largely from what we produce, essentially, internally. That is, money

[14:34] Naturally, shift these risks, primarily onto consumers, of course. This will all increase inflation. That's one thing. Secondly, the state will earn less and

[14:49] receive less in taxes because businesses won't expand. This, of course, has a long-term effect. And the more influxes there are, the more Ozon warehouses burn down, the greater this effect will be, unfortunately, and

[15:03] the fewer entrepreneurs will want to start anything at all . Because, again, put yourself in the shoes of the average person. You're a businessman, you want to make, well, I don't know, maybe a

[15:16] My wife, for example, made this mug. This is a craft mug. And if you want to make these craft mugs, for example, you need to buy and so forth. This is

[15:29] an expense for you, since our population is poor , and naturally, people will mostly take out loans. And so, you have an interest rate of 20-25%. At the same time, you take on a huge number of risks in the form of selling this

[15:41] very mug. And then you find out that you also got hit, you see? And your product is now completely gone. Your mug will either be very expensive to compensate for all these risks, or you will most likely think: "Well, when the

[15:54] SVO ends, then I will make these mugs." And again, yes, I can speak from my own experience as well. For example, now I want to glaze my house, put in a mirrored one like this. And then I sat and thought, "I have

[16:08] sirens wailing here endlessly, constantly landings. So, literally..." There was an influx there a couple of days ago, and a girl was seriously injured. And I'm sitting here thinking, my order for these windshields costs about 2 million . Why should I order them if a

[16:23] drone is about to arrive? And if a drone arrives, I'll lose these windshields . What's the point of spending money on this? So, naturally, I say to myself, "To hell with it , I'll wait until the SVO is over ." And there are a huge number of people like me.

[16:37] You can feel it yourself. So, we'll still feel the effect of these influxes , and it will be long-term—that is, it won't just be, but short-term. Well, let's move on to the securities review. The first thing we'll look at is, of course

[16:51] , Ozo. Well, in connection with the arrival of Valpers, it's clear that things will get to Ozo. God forbid, of course, but the probability is, let's say, very high. Let me remind you that our target forecast is a move to 2,500.

[17:06] rubles. So, we haven't reached it, we have n't reached our target, so it's 20 rubles. The market has bounced back from 2480. There's no calming down yet . Meanwhile, we're seeing increasing volume. It seems like there's a bottom or something, yes, something like that, but

[17:20] we see that the decline has continued. Moreover, and at the time of this recording, the twenty- sixth—you'll see this on the twenty- seventh, you'll probably even see it in the evening— we're continuing to fall. So, the market isn't calming down, despite the fact

[17:33] calming down, despite the fact that the Central Bank's interest rate was supposedly cut by should be an upward increase, right? That means the market should go up. Nothing of the sort is happening, so we're continuing to fall. Until we see

[17:46] calm here, until we see a stop here, we're in a state of expanding volatility. On the twenty-third, Ozon launched cash-settled options. They're primarily used by professional participants to hedge their risks and,

[18:01] here? Hedging. Notice that Ozon has fallen here, it turns out, since February, it's collapsed by half, and naturally, market participants were asking, this reason, many here, naturally, started taking some

[18:16] action. So. And this has influenced the volume that we're seeing now. So, it's not a given that we've found a bottom here. In any case, we're seeing an increase in volume now. There's no

[18:28] an increase in volume now. There's no stopping point yet. We've reached our target, not counting those 20 rubles. Therefore, next week, we should, in theory, get even closer to this target. Get stuck a little at 2,500,

[18:42] followed by, possibly, some kind of correction. From here, in all likelihood, we'll reverse course. That is, we'll go somewhere to the 3,000 level. But here, I'll probably do some kind of new

[18:55] review, because we see that at 2,500, as I said, there's high demand. Here it is, There's high demand. Here it is, high demand. Therefore, we're moving further down with a possible, accordingly, some kind of return or

[19:08] liquidity capture. That is, something should happen here. Here, here we have a key point. Talking about a reversal, about buying here, especially on the shoulders, is still too early. We're definitely not buying here yet. We're waiting for

[19:21] the market to give us signals. Shares of T-Bank. The rate was lowered, and, naturally, the paper reacted very well to this , reacted positively. We see how buyers are entering here . Starting

[19:35] . Starting somewhere around July 20th, we see that we have new capital coming in for buying. On July 20th and 21st, we saw growth. Moreover, we saw growth for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days in a row, and then the growth began to increase. That

[19:53] decline, a decrease in volatility. And now we're starting a new rocket. On July 23rd, we had a small pause. It was related to, Of course, before the related to, Of course, before the Central Bank rate. And on July 24th, we

[20:08] see growth again. But on the twenty- fifth and twenty-sixth, it's clear that the market continues to move further. What else I'd like to do here is to add volumes. Let's add volumes here for this large chunk of history, that is,

[20:22] for a large sideways movement. Let me remind you that we are in a large sideways movement here. Our lower boundary of the price zone is approximately at 270. The largest is approximately at 270. The largest volume is at 312. At the moment, the

[20:35] most likely further movement is an upward movement. Let's outline it here . This movement is approximately somewhere towards 280. Here, most likely, we will continue to mark time in a sideways movement with

[20:49] That is, approximately this is the scenario that can be outlined here. Well, friends, talking about a short here is certainly out of the question. The only question here is about the long, what values ​​we will reach, unless, of course, nothing changes. If there

[21:03] are any arrivals at the logistics center or something in In this spirit, here, of course, it will be possible to reconsider. It is clear that we have already reached such a local bottom. And since we are in this large sideways trend, we

[21:15] will continue to trade in this large sideways trend. We see an increase in volume at the border of the sideways trend. An increase in volume at the border of the sideways trend indicates the arrival of new capital for purchase. And we see that

[21:27] we have quite good capital coming in here . I would also like to go to the weekly time frame. [snorts] From the weekly time frame, it is even clearer. We see that we formed a minimum last week on July 13th.

[21:43] This minimum was also confirmed on December 16th, 2024, November 25th, 2024. September 2nd, 2024. Well, and, of course, in October of 2022. And now we are right here.

[21:57] We have an increase in volume. Well, for now, the potential, of course, looks like a long, a buy up to 290. I'd like to take a look at the Euros company.

[22:09] It's undoubtedly the leader of the past week, as it rose 101% in one day. the only reason this happened is because the company found a

[22:21] way out of a technical default. Besides the fact that there was a way out of a technical default, short positions were simply banned. To close short positions, you need to buy. That's why we saw a sharp drop here. It's clear that

[22:34] the company is breathing on Llaad, and most likely , the company will be is now initiating bankruptcy proceedings for this company. That is, bankruptcy proceedings. There's company. That is, bankruptcy proceedings. There's

[22:47] . It's obvious that we'll go further down. We're in a bearish trend, so it's definitely not worth entering into a buy here. Firstly, both the fundamentals and the technical picture are influencing . That is, there are no gains here

[23:01] . That is, there are no gains here. No capital inflow. So, the only thing you can do is deposit a maximum of 1,000 rubles and see if you can earn 2,000 or so someday.

[23:14] But even that's more like a cash flow analysis than trading. There's nothing for an investor or trader to do here. Let's look at the gold pole. As a reminder, we gold pole. As a reminder, we had a bearish trend in the gold field here. We determined

[23:29] that large capital was exiting this security . Then we tried to find a rebound from the 2,000 level, but we could n't find one. We went short, which became a long-term short. We

[23:42] reached the target of 1,150. We're currently in a slight correction. That is, we have an increase in volume, but this increase in volume doesn't mean this increase in volume doesn't mean we've hit a bottom. Although, frankly

[23:55] , it looks like a bottom. If we switch to a weekly timeframe, look, the company hasn't had such significant declines. Never. This is our weekly timeframe. Look, we have a serious drop. Yes, this has never happened before in

[24:08] history. That is, this happened for the first time. And, well, it was somewhere around February 21st, for obvious reasons, tragic ones. Here we had, it turns out, a drop of 34%. Here we have a drop of 39% within one week alone.

[24:25] Therefore, here we are left with long-term shorts. We do not see an influx of capital here that would indicate that we will close this large gap. That is, not even a gap, but more of an impulse here. It is understandable. For this reason, on June 26th,

[24:39] we already see the gradual emergence of a small expiration. Also, our volumes are starting to fall from the 2,300 level. Let's superimpose a little volume on the rebound to see where it was concentrated. Most participants were trying to find the

[24:54] Most participants were trying to find the bottom at the 1,100 level, approximately 1,200, that is, roughly plus or minus somewhere around here. In the near future, we will probably continue Some small rebound. That is, we will continue the rebound slightly upwards,

[25:07] followed by a downward movement. That is, we have a long-term short continuing here. Novatek. You also asked in the comments to look at Novatek. Let me remind you, we also had a forecast here of a downward movement to the 1,000 ruble level. We

[25:22] corrected, and formed a sideways trend here below. There was a rebound from this sideways trend, and the 1,000 level has already become a kind of mirror level. As we approach this level, our candlesticks began to contract, which

[25:36] indicates the emergence of sellers from above. That is, serious sellers are starting to emerge from above . We also do not see an increase in volume. That is, when we expect some kind of breakout, we see a gradual increase in volume followed by a breakout.

[25:51] This is not happening here. On the contrary, we have, accordingly, tails appearing on the candlesticks, and volatility is falling. A roughly similar structure was in June 26, so we have a powerful one here above.

[26:05] Seller. Sellers are dumping paper here. And it's clear why. The be there, has now turned into resistance. And at the moment, we could see further downward movement. And

[26:19] here I'd also like to say a little bit: this movement, I'm more than sure, somewhere on the Smartman forums dedicated to Smartman, it would have sparked discussions about it being a liquidity grab or something like that

[26:35] . With a liquidity grab, we would see an acceleration of the movement, the emergence of abnormal volumes, followed by a rebound. A similar situation was in the policy, but there it was shaped by fundamentals. In this case, we do

[26:48] n't have anything like that, so it's not appropriate to call this movement a liquidity grab . Rather, it's an acceptance of the level. Moreover, we see a downward movement and a sideways trend below it. If we have a sideways trend below the level, this indicates acceptance of

[27:02] that very level. Therefore, this rebound can be perceived simply as a movement toward the resistance level followed by a downward movement, that is, with a subsequent reversal. The goal, let me remind you, We have this level that was formed on

[27:17] December 12, 2024. This is the 770 level. I'd also like to look at 770 level. I'd also like to look at VTB. Let me remind you that for VTB, back in the spring, we identified this level and designated it as the exit of large amounts of money.

[27:32] That is, we saw that large amounts of money were exiting here, not entering, and, accordingly, there was a run-off. We had a forecast once, and we reached our targets. We had a forecast twice, and we reached our targets. And now, we've broken through it three times. And

[27:45] despite the fact that the rate was apparently lowered on Friday, we see that this is n't helping the paper at all. Well, that's understandable; that's not what this paper is about . We are at a historical low. There's no stop here yet

[27:59] , no bottom has appeared. That means we'll most likely continue to move lower. The next target, if we look at it using Fibonacci, is approximately 45125. From here, we'll continue to move in this bearish trend. There's

[28:14] no trend stop here. We're not seeing any acceleration. It's a typical classic trend. The trend is downward. Therefore, our next forecast is a move to 45125. Dear friends, I remind you that the

[28:30] Central Bank has been eating us up, so please subscribe to our Telegram channel and also to Forgive Me, Lord, Max. D. Dear friends, let's stop here. Please write in the comments which securities I should look at

[28:42] in my next review. I wish you good luck. And also write, is it worthwhile to express these geopolitical, so to speak, events in general, because, you see, they only cause problems. Sometimes they block websites, sometimes they block something else . Here, please write

[28:55] accordingly, do some analytics, make reviews, and then subsequently understand that, well, what interests you, we try to do, accordingly. Also subscribe to our Telegram channel and,

[29:08] Lord forgive me, Max, these QR codes are a difficult time for the country. I think we all need to unite. God knows how this will all end. knows how this will all end. Happily. Make money. y