How Dangerous Is This Super El Niño Really?

[00:00] This summer might get very hot. In the past month,  we've seen a lot of headlines about the long-term   weather forecasts that are suggesting it's not  going to be nice. We're heading into a super El  

[00:13] Nino with a 100% chance. The headlines say it's  not just an inconvenience that'll drive up your   electricity bill. It might cause widespread famine  in Africa and more wildfires. What's going on? And  

[00:27] how much do we actually know? I have a brief  summary. Global average temperatures have been   rising with the carbon dioxide content of our  atmosphere. But it's not a steady increase. The   temperature has a lot of fluctuations from year  to year. There are many factors which contribute  

[00:43] to this. Volcano eruptions, wildfires and land  use changes, changes in solar radiation and cloud   cover and so on. But one of the most relevant  contributions to the fluctuations is the El Nino  

[00:56] southern oscillation, ENSO for short. Enso is a  fluctuation on the scale of several years and it   affects how much heat is stored in the oceans.  Sometimes the oceans contain a lot of heat and  

[01:09] less in the atmosphere and sometimes it's the  other way around. The oceans give off heat and   that gives some extra warming to the atmosphere.  In such years when the ocean gives off heat,   the average global temperatures spark particularly  high. El Nino is the warmest of the Enzo phases  

[01:27] and it typically lasts 9 to 12 months. This is  why El Nino is one of the most relevant factors   for long range weather forecasts. It doesn't just  affect the average temperature. It also affects  

[01:40] rainfall patterns and with that phases of drought,  heat waves, fires, and extreme events across big   parts of the world. The world's meteorological  organizations keep close track of the patterns  

[01:53] that tell them when the Enzo is changing by  measuring things like ocean temperatures,   especially in the Pacific, and wind speeds. The  news is now that the forecasts predict that we're  

[02:05] likely to soon switch into an El Nino phase. These  forecasts come from places like the US American   National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,  Noah, the World Meteorological Organization,  

[02:18] and the ECMWF. That's the European Center  for Medium Rage Weather Forecasts. Range,   I meant range. They all agreed that there is  a high chance. Noah puts it at 82% chance that  

[02:33] El Nino will begin sometime between May and  July 2026. and then a more than 90% chance of   it continuing through December 2026 to February  2027. The extra warming from El Nino will go on  

[02:48] top of the global warming that we've already seen.  And the thing is that the El Nino phases are not   always equally strong. If they are particularly  strong, the extra warming is particularly high.   And the world's best forecasts now give a high  chance that El Nino will be particularly strong  

[03:05] this year, which has also been called a super El  Nino. Just how high the risk is of that happening   depends somewhat on the model. Earlier this  month, the ECMWF did an ensemble forecast. This  

[03:20] means they run the model multiple times with  initial data that are within the uncertainty   range. They found that now 100% of their model  runs predict a superel in you. The temperature  

[03:33] normally on the yaxis here is not the global  surface temperature but the surface temperature   in a part of the Pacific Ocean that's particularly  predictive for a nino. This recent ECMWF forecast  

[03:46] is the main reason for the headlines. But no 2  puts the probability at roughly 2/3 that it's   going to be a strong or very strong El Nino. And  the Australian Bureau of Meteorology says somewhat  

[03:59] vaguely that their model suggests an event that  will likely be at least moderate in strength with   the possibility of a strong event. This makes some  people nervous because of the super El Nino which  

[04:11] lasted from 1876 to 1878. It brought an era of  global drought and famine which affected India,   China, Brazil, Southern Africa, North Africa  and parts of North America. An estimated 30  

[04:25] to 60 million people died which at the time was  about 2 to 4% of the entire world population. And   today we're in a situation where many countries,  especially in Africa, are already close to famine.  

[04:38] Now it must be added that the 1876 Supra  Nino catastrophe was not just caused by   the climate conditions. It was also caused by  colonial policy affecting food availability,  

[04:50] inefficient agriculture and lack of global support  systems. Then again today we have aggravating   factors too such as the war in Iran that's causing  supply chain problems with fertilizer and more  

[05:02] generally that nobody really cares how many  people die in Africa. Somewhat closer to home,   the El Nino events actually don't affect the  weather in Europe all that much because our   next D ocean is the Atlantic, not the Pacific. It  does, however, affect the US West Coast where it's  

[05:19] likely to be a nasty season. Sorry, California. In  any case, my summaries of the headlines are mostly   right. The world isn't going to end, but it'll  be a difficult summer for big parts of Africa,  

[05:31] Southern Asia, and Australia. And the US is  likely to suffer through more heat waves. So,   the good news is the models mostly agree. The  bad news is they agree in the way doctors agree  

[05:43] when they mumble. Interesting case. Before you  go, here's a challenge. I've been trying Matiks,   which is a mobile app for quick one  minute mind sport duels against real  

[05:56] people. I thought it would be a good idea to  train my aging brain. And let's be honest,   YouTube isn't the place. On Matiks, you pick a  format, get matched with someone at your rating,   and then it's a race against the clock.  There are formats for math, memory, puzzles,  

[06:12] and classical challenges including Blitz, Mind  Snap, KenKen, and Math Maze. It's fast enough to   play in a spare minute, but because it's against a  real person, it's got a nice human and competitive  

[06:25] angle. Matrix also has streaks, ratings, leagues,  and daily puzzles and leaderboards, so you can   see how you're doing and compare scores with  others. You can also add friends, play together,  

[06:38] or compete directly. I honestly enjoy these  little games because for once I feel like I'm   doing something useful with my phone. So download  Matiks and challenge yourself. The links at the  

[06:52] top of the description and there's a QR code on  the screen. Thanks for watching. See you tomorrow.