I Found an Arbitrage Tool for Prediction Markets (Kalshi & Polymarket)

[00:01] on sports, arbitrage sports betting is the best place to start because it doesn't really get any closer to risk-free betting than arbitrage betting because you're taking both sides of a bet. In this video, I'm going to go over

[00:15] exactly how it works, how the math works, how you can take advantage of this. But before we get into it, the main issue with arbitrage sports betting is once you start to make money, these sports books catch on and they limit

[00:27] your bet size so you can no longer really capture that value and actually >> [music] >> However, now with prediction markets being on the scene, you can take advantage of arbitrage between

[00:40] Polymarket, Kalshi, and a couple other prediction markets while never running the risk of being limited. These platforms have no issue with arbitrage betting [music] because they're not a sports book. They're not making money

[00:54] when you lose. They're just making money on a fee on every single trade or bet being placed. So in this video, going to go over exactly how this works, [music] to show you the software that I use to

[01:08] arbitrage betting manually is an absolute pain in the ass. So, [music] without further ado, let me go into exactly how the arbitrage process works on prediction markets and then we'll get

[01:20] into the software that I use and show you how it works to help you find these All right, let's start off by breaking down exactly what arbitrage means. So, simple. It's the practice of buying and selling identical assets or markets or

[01:36] in this case bets on different [music] sports books or marketplaces or brokerages. And again, in this case, it would be prediction markets [music] with little to no risk. So, think of it like

[01:49] if on a single market, J.D. Vance to win the presidential election and Kalshi has the yes odds at 60% and the no odds are at 40%. [music] And then on the same market on Polymarket, they have the yes odds

[02:03] [music] at 65% and the no odds are at 35%. [music] There is free money for us to make here without even having any clue whether J.D. Vance is going to win this presidential election. It doesn't even

[02:16] matter because we can literally just buy yes on Kalshi for 60% and we can buy no yes on Kalshi for 60% and we can buy no on Polymarket for 35%. Once the market resolves or you were to cash out of this bet, the market goes to [music] 100% and

[02:32] those shares that you got at 60% or 60 cents would resolve to $1. So, you would make 40 cents per share. And if it goes to no, then those shares go to 0 cents or 0%. Meaning, if we buy yes shares on Kalshi and we buy no shares on

[02:48] Polymarket, [music] we now have covered every single outcome in that market. That means that if he wins or loses, we bought both sides >> [music] >> and we've only had to pay 95 cents when

[03:00] we're going to get 100 cents back regardless of the outcome. So, that is a 5-cent profit per share that we buy. Meaning, a profit per share that we buy. Meaning, a 5% ROI on that [music] arbitrage trade.

[03:14] Now, obviously with arbitrage sports betting or arbitrage prediction markets, you're going to be tying up money on both [music] sides of a trade and the only time that you get your money back is when that trade or that bet resolves.

[03:27] However, with prediction markets, what's really, really interesting is you don't If you're doing that J.D. Vance presidential election market, well, you don't want to have your money tied up for the next [music] 2 years until he

[03:41] either wins or loses the election. But, what's very interesting is these markets what's very interesting is these markets cross over a ton of times [music] from Kalshi to Polymarket, meaning there are many opportunities where you can simply

[03:55] many opportunities where you can simply cash out of that trade and make that profit. Now, obviously, when these markets are [music] crossing over, that's the perfect time to cash out of your arbitrage opportunity, take your

[04:07] profit, and run. Now, one thing to understand as well is that even if you don't cash out early [music] to take that profit, when the market does [music] It's just you don't want to have that tied up for 2 years. So, what we

[04:21] like to do is [music] use, again, software to help us find those opportunities where they do cross over. So, now you can absolutely capture that risk-free money. So, as an example, you're using this piece of software that

[04:35] I'm going to show you in just a second [music] here, and we can see that are aliens going to exist before [music] 2027? You could buy yes for 14 cents on 2027? You could buy yes for 14 cents on Kalshi, you could buy no for 76 cents on

[04:49] Polymarket. That means you spend 90 cents total for a guaranteed profit of cents total for a guaranteed profit of 10 cents per contract traded, and that is a 10% profit. And then, almost immediately after that market ended up

[05:04] immediately after that market ended up crossing over, one of them moved their percentages, moved their lines on that bet, and you were then [music] able to cash out of both sides and capture that 10% profit literally just a couple

[05:18] information being thrown at you, a lot of really promising things, but how does software work? Let me show you exactly what I use and how [music] it notifies when things are crossing over, notifies you when to sell, and you're actually

[05:34] [music] So, I've been using arbs.xyz as my software of choice, mainly because they just make it so easy, and I've just heard a ton of success stories of actual [music] people making actual money. So

[05:49] obviously that's very important, but very very simply they find you the spread the arbitrage opportunity. They do the math for you where you literally click one button to buy both sides of [music] it. So it's really really

[06:03] simple. They buy the perfect amount on both sides to make [music] sure you're maximizing your return and then when your arbitrage is sellable, [music] they ping you either in Telegram or Discord saying, "Hey, you can now sell

[06:17] [music] this for a profit." And again, you literally click one button to really doesn't get any easier than that. That's why I'm using this premium piece >> There are other ones out there that are a lot cheaper, but just a lot clunkier

[06:32] and really not that clean. So that to me making it clean and easy is the biggest doing this for hours [music] on end. So let's look at some examples. This is the terminal view. Your arbitrage opportunities pop up on the

[06:47] right-hand side. It tells you what kind of what kind of percent gain you can make and then also the amount of money you can make based on the liquidity in that market. You can filter it based on the percent spread like we have right

[06:59] amount of profit that you can make on that one like you can see some of these then you got volume, volatility, and then the end date. You can also do it where if you don't want to have to like cash out, you can do it on the lower

[07:11] soccer game ending you know tomorrow or something thing where you don't have to I recommend looking at the spread at least for what I'm showing you guys how it. It'll pull it up in this terminal view and it'll show you exactly the

[07:27] spread you're getting, the estimated profit, the prices on Call Sheet and Polymarket. As you can see, Polymarket has it at [music] 4 cents to the yes and then Call Sheet has it at 91 cents to the no. Add those two up. That's 95

[07:41] cents. Regardless of the outcome, you get 100 cents. So, [music] that's a 5% edge there. And they also have this view here that shows you the exact price [music] and when it does cross over. And what's important, especially if you're

[07:55] taking a long-dated arbitrage opportunity like this one here, the top artist on Spotify [music] in 2026 being Taylor Swift, this one's right? So, locking up your money for 6 months, no bueno in my opinion. So,

[08:08] what you can do here is you can see how often these overlap. You can see Kalshi and Polymarket right here [music] overlap to where you can cash out. Same with back over here. And this is just showing you the last month. If we look

[08:22] at all time on this market, how many times this has crossed over? [music] I mean, just look at it. It's almost every every 2 weeks or so, >> it's crossing over to where the blue line's going below the green and vice

[08:36] And it's going up and down, up and down, crossing over because these markets are not efficient. [music] They're moving, they're changing, and they're giving you these opportunities to simply just [music] be smart with your money, use

[08:48] math, use software, and take advantage of these pricing discrepancies. So, this would be a fantastic market to do this on because [music] it has crossed over so many times over the past 6 months that, [music] I mean,

[09:02] it's pretty safe to say it likely will do it again quite soon. And that really is all you need to know about [music] how this works. I mean, at the end of the day, it comes down to you connect your Polymarket account, you connect

[09:15] your money [music] at all. You just connect your wallets. And then, once an arbitrage alert comes in, you would click this button at the bottom here to place the bet on both sides. It places it for you on both books.

[09:29] >> And then, when you get an alert, I'll show a screenshot of an alert pop up >> It'll tell you, "Hey, now's the time to go sell these." You click the button, it brings you to the terminal, you click sell, [music] and you lock in your

[09:42] profit. So, really the the main key things here, make sure that you have enough funds in both your wallets, so you are able to complete [music] both sides of the trades. Some other frequently asked questions that we got

[09:54] this product in the Juice Bets VIP Discord, which we've had also a ton of with it as well. Some of the main questions were, "Well, what if [music] the same arbitrage opportunity at the same time?" Well, this updates every 2

[10:10] to 3 seconds. So, you're actually able to see when these markets are changing [music] and moving. And so, somebody captures that arbitrage before you can, well, it'll simply update and you won't be able to take [music] that bet again.

[10:23] And on the off chance you are able to get one side [music] like on Polymarket not able to get that side, [music] it will tell you how much you have to place on that Kalshi side to make sure that you are hedged and you're not losing

[10:38] one outcome. So, that's a really important thing to understand. Now, it's time to be fully transparent and talk about all the little things that you need to understand before you start doing this. First of all, this will take

[10:52] It could take 5 minutes, [music] you know, at different points in the day where you do have to go in and check the tool and make sure that you are [music] entering these trades and then also you're checking your notifications when

[11:05] [music] and then you are going in and sell. The second thing to understand is that Polymarket and Kalshi are the two prediction markets that are the best to one, they have the most markets. Number two, there's the most liquidity and

[11:20] volume coming in. And so, those are pretty much the main reasons why those are [music] the best prediction markets to do it on. However, if you're using Kalshi, [music] you have to be in the United States, but PolyMarket's

[11:33] international website is the one that you need to use for these markets that match with Kalshi. And so, technically, you can't get that [music] in the United you can't get that [music] in the United States. However, if you use a VPN, it is

[11:45] seamless, incredibly [music] easy, and no problems whatsoever. So, I highly recommend that if you're thinking about purchasing this product, you're in [music] the United States with a Kalshi and a PolyMarket account, you

[11:58] use a VPN for the PolyMarket account. You just need that for when [music] you sign up. And if you were to ever actually go on PolyMarket. But once you're using this tool, you're placing those bets through the tool, through

[12:12] their API. [music] And so, the the whole VPN issue doesn't really become that difficult at that point. [music] Another thing to keep in mind, you can do this on your phone as well. So, that that makes it very easy and nice to be able

[12:24] Now, now that we're talking about things to consider, this is an expensive piece of software again because [music] this is risk Well, it's not fully risk-free, obviously. There are can be tech issues

[12:38] and and whatnot. But it's [music] as close to risk-free as you can get arbitrage betting, right? However, we did talk with the team and we're trying to make it more accessible for people, but only those who want to use this

[12:51] So, we do have a discount link down below using a code down there and using below using a code down there and using our special link. It's going to be $997 per year. So, [music] that's basically, you know,

[13:05] you know, $2-3 a day to make 50 to 250 bucks a day. Obviously makes sense when you look at it that way. However, I want you to keep in mind that that is the cost. And now, that is very, very

[13:19] discounted. Previously, it was like I think it was like $4,000 a year. If you the tool, feel free to drop them down below as well. I'll be happy to answer anything [music] else to know about this tool besides the fact that it just does

[13:34] genuinely [music] work specifically for College and Poly Market. It's a no-brainer for anybody in the United States who can get a VPN. A VPNs are five bucks [music] a month, no problem there either. And also, if you do want

[13:48] about their experience with this tool, [music] feel free to drop a comment. I can get you in the Discord to ask other people how it's gone for, you know, [music] that's all I got for you guys. Definitely a really, really cool

[14:02] product, something brand new that I [music] had really never even thought little too efficient, but they're really just not. There's so many markets, so >> so many arbitrage opportunities. I appreciate you guys watching this video.

[14:16] Thank you for your support, and we'll see you in the next one. I haven't mentioned yet in this video that bet tracking is an incredibly important this is something that is done automatically for me [music] by using

[14:30] the app called Pikkit. Pikkit connects all your sportsbooks and DFS apps into one area and shows you exactly [music] how profitable you are, how much money you're making, are you beating the closing line. You can go granular down

[14:45] to, okay, how well am I doing with this specific player or this specific team. It's a fantastic app, and it's [music] completely free. I've linked it down below to check out cuz this is something that profitable better has in their

[14:58] toolkit, some way to track your bets and understand are [music] you profitable. So, make sure that you at least are using Pikkit for bet tracking. using Pikkit for bet tracking. >> [music]